港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy amount of 38.65 billion CNY, representing a holding change of 558,592,867 shares[8] - The top net sell company is Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell amount of -51.46 billion CNY, reflecting a holding change of -10,130,904 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows significant net buying activity, led by China Construction Bank and China Bank, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, particularly Tencent and Xiaomi, experienced substantial net selling, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment away from tech stocks[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) was the most actively traded stock with a total trading volume of 52.76 billion CNY and a net sell of -0.28 billion CNY[20] - Alibaba (9988.HK) also saw high trading activity with a total trading volume of 34.15 billion CNY and a net sell of -2.19 billion CNY[20]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance this week, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining while the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hang Seng Index continued to rise, recording increases of +1.13% and +1.10% respectively, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by -0.65% [4][14] - The materials sector saw the largest weekly gain, close to 6%, driven by safe-haven demand and rising gold prices. The healthcare sector also performed well, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.5%, supported by the innovation drug and biotechnology concepts [4][14] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to around 70%, aligning with the 5-year average valuation level [4] Market Valuation Level - The report highlights the valuation levels of key indices, indicating that the Hang Seng Composite Index is currently at a valuation level consistent with its historical averages [4][20] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed increased activity this week, with a total buyback amount of HKD 5.28 billion, significantly up from HKD 2.24 billion the previous week. The number of companies engaging in buybacks decreased slightly to 55 from 61 [28][31] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buyback activity with a total of HKD 2.5 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 810 million, and Bilibili-W (9626.HK) with HKD 780 million [28][31] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buy companies for the week included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 3.865 billion, China Mobile (0941.HK) with HKD 2.682 billion, and Meituan-W (3690.HK) with HKD 2.139 billion [35] - Conversely, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) was the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of HKD 5.146 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) with HKD 1.584 billion [36] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The report notes that over 80% of the profits in the Hong Kong market come from Chinese companies, indicating a strong correlation between the Hong Kong market's fundamentals and the economic conditions in mainland China [40][41] - Key economic indicators include a 4.0% year-on-year growth in fixed asset investment for the first four months of the year, and a 5.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April [40][41] - The report also mentions that the People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, which is expected to support economic activity [41][45] Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology sectors. It also highlights the potential of undervalued state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that may benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [4][45] - Caution is advised regarding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. market due to ongoing trade tensions [4][45]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net bought company is 盈富基金 (2800.HK) with a net buy amount of 6.306 billion CNY, representing an increase of 273,462,000 shares[8] - 美团-W (3690.HK) ranks second with a net buy amount of 4.432 billion CNY, with 31,432,701 shares bought[8] - The top net sold company is 腾讯控股 (0700.HK) with a net sell amount of -3.073 billion CNY, with a decrease of 6,213,998 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector saw significant net buying, particularly with 建设银行 (11.66 billion CNY) and 招商银行 (8.25 billion CNY) among the top bought[8] - The information technology sector experienced notable net selling, led by 腾讯控股 (-3.073 billion CNY) and 小米集团-W (-2.271 billion CNY)[9] - The healthcare sector had mixed results, with 百济神州 (7.42 billion CNY net buy) contrasting with 石药集团 (-0.796 billion CNY net sell)[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - 中芯国际 (0981.HK) was the most actively traded stock with a total trading volume of 45.43 billion CNY and a net buy of 6.11 billion CNY on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - 阿里巴巴-W (9988.HK) had a total trading volume of 28.03 billion CNY with a net sell of -3.68 billion CNY on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - 小米集团-W (1810.HK) recorded a total trading volume of 39.36 billion CNY with a net sell of -8.73 billion CNY on the Shanghai Stock Connect[19]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 2.24 billion, a significant improvement from HKD 1.44 billion the previous week[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares this week was 64, a slight decrease from 66 last week[12] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 556.15 million[12] Group 2: Top Repurchasing Companies - The top three companies by repurchase amount were HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 556.15 million, China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 521.97 million, and AIA Group (1299.HK) at HKD 398.19 million[12] - China Hongqiao's repurchase accounted for 0.40% of its total share capital, while AIA Group's accounted for 0.06%[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The repurchase amounts were primarily concentrated in the financial, industrial, and materials sectors, driven by major repurchases from HSBC, AIA, and China Hongqiao[15] - The information technology sector had the highest number of repurchasing companies, with 14 firms participating[15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 1.44 billion, a decrease from HKD 1.53 billion the previous week[9] - The number of companies repurchasing shares increased to 66 from 62 in the previous week[9] - The top three companies by repurchase amount were AIA (1299.HK) at HKD 575.81 million, China Hongqiao (1378.HK) at HKD 304.73 million, and COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) at HKD 162.60 million[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The repurchase amounts were primarily concentrated in the financial, industrial, and materials sectors, driven by significant repurchases from AIA, China Hongqiao, and COSCO Shipping[12] - The information technology and healthcare sectors had the highest number of companies initiating repurchases, with 13 companies each[12] - The industrial sector followed with 10 companies, while the consumer discretionary sector had 9 companies participating in repurchases[12] Group 3: Company-Specific Data - AIA (1299.HK) accounted for 0.10% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 1,031.02 thousand shares[8] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) represented 0.23% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 2,197.05 thousand shares[8] - The repurchase by Green Bamboo Bio-B (2480.HK) was notable at 0.87% of its total share capital, with 175.92 thousand shares repurchased[8] Group 4: Significance of Share Buybacks - Share buybacks are defined as companies using liquid cash to repurchase a certain amount of their outstanding shares from the secondary market[22] - Large-scale buyback trends often occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[22] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, all occurring during bear markets followed by subsequent rallies[22]

1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通数据统计周报 2025.4.28-2025.5.4 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.4.28-2025.5.4） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 可选消费 | 29862986 | 39.57 | | 2 | 1088.HK | 中国神华 | 能源 | 21482000 | 6.29 | | 3 | 2388.HK | 中银香港 | 金融 | 18780500 | 5.97 | | 4 | 2367.HK | 巨子生物 | 日常消费 | 6702768 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong rebound this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.43%, 2.38%, and 5.24% respectively, driven by increasing expectations of negotiations between China and the US [6][16] - All primary industry sectors in the Hong Kong market experienced gains, with Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare leading the way, achieving weekly increases of 5.0%, 3.7%, and 2.4% respectively [6][16] - The valuation level of the Hang Seng Composite Index reached a 5-year PE (TTM) percentile of approximately 58%, still below the 5-year average [6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the Chinese manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.0, a decline from 50.5 in March, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance and pressure from US-China trade tensions [46][48] - The report highlights that over 80% of the profits in the Hong Kong market come from Chinese companies, which are closely tied to the economic conditions in mainland China [39][41] - The report anticipates that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve its annual growth targets, in response to external demand pressures [46][48] Group 3 - The report indicates a notable trend in share buybacks, with a total buyback amount of 1.44 billion HKD this week, slightly down from 1.53 billion HKD the previous week [27][30] - A total of 66 companies engaged in buybacks this week, an increase from 62 companies the prior week, indicating a stable market interest in share repurchases [27][30] - The top three companies by buyback amount were AIA Group (57.58 million HKD), China Hongqiao (30.47 million HKD), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (16.26 million HKD) [27][30] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies [46][48] - It also suggests focusing on undervalued state-owned enterprises that are likely to benefit from policy support, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that are relatively insulated from external pressures [46][48] - The report advises caution regarding sectors with significant exposure to US markets due to ongoing trade disputes [46][48]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a "V" shaped rebound in long-term yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 7.9 basis points during the week, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2][11][70] - The U.S. GDP annualized value for Q1 has turned negative at -0.3%, marking the first decline since March 2022, primarily due to a combined drag from net exports and government spending of -5.1%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [5][68] - The liquidity and supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market show a significant drop in reserves by over $200 billion to $3 trillion, while the SOFR rate has increased by 8 basis points, indicating that the funding market has not been significantly impacted by the Treasury sell-off [5][35] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining a dovish stance in its refinancing plans, projecting a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3, while the issuance of T-Bills continues at a high level [19][23] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries is characterized by a decline in short positions, although they remain elevated, with the total short position in 2-year Treasury futures at approximately $429.5 billion, reflecting ongoing basis trading and roll-over trading [24][27] - The yield on Treasury carry trades has been rising, indicating renewed interest from overseas institutions, with the actual returns on 10-year Treasuries remaining attractive after accounting for currency hedging costs [28][70] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment shows that April's non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, with the private sector contributing 167,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.19% [48][55] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for April recorded a decline to 48.7%, indicating contraction, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6%, suggesting a mixed outlook for the service sector [62][67] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates as early as June if economic pressures from tariffs and trade disputes continue to escalate, with a potential end to balance sheet reduction expected by the end of the year [69][70]

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 5 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 一季度经济实现开门红，实际 GDP 同比 5.4%，名义 GDP 同比 4.6%，反应 9.24 新政以来经济复苏的积极因素在不断累积；政治局会议强调加紧实施已落地的 政策，财政发债节奏加快，货币政策加力，市场对宽松预期明显升温。上证综 指和深证成指在月末分别收于 3279、9899.8，月内涨跌幅分别为-1.7%、-5.76%。 债市则受避险情绪影响，4 月初迎来一波快牛，10 年国债收益率两个交易日内 下行 18bp，但随着后续多空力量进入相对平衡状态，利率难上但也难下，10 年国债收益率在 1.62-1.67%区间震荡。展望后续，基本面对债市的影响逐渐 弱化+中美关税谈判难以短期达成和解的背景下，5 月偏宽松的资金面可能会 给短端品种带来更好的投资机会，同时可以在组合中保留一定的久期仓位，以 抓捕降准/降息落地后带来的一波快牛机会。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 ...