Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October shows a marginal improvement at 47.8, up from 47.3 in September, while the services PMI remains strong at 55.3[16] - The U.S. economic surprise index recorded a value of 19.7, indicating that actual economic conditions are better than expected[23] - The latest Beige Book indicates stable economic activity across most regions, with inflation continuing to ease[16] Group 2: Political Landscape and Election Insights - Trump's probability of winning the election has risen to 64.1%, with the Republican Party expected to secure the Senate and House with probabilities of 85% and 52%, respectively[12] - Early voting numbers have dropped significantly, with only 29.1 million ballots cast compared to 2020, reflecting a decrease in voter turnout[10] - In battleground states, Trump leads by narrow margins, with a 2.2% lead in Georgia and a 1.5% lead in Arizona[12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.83% amid strong expectations for Trump's victory and stable U.S. economic conditions[2] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 17 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated election outcomes[2] - Oil and precious metal prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding Trump's policies[2]

评级：无评级 分析师：由子沛 本周行情回顾： 本周 4 支 REITs 上涨，32 支下跌，整体下跌 0.60%，其中易方达广开产园 REIT 涨幅 最大为 1.19%，华夏和达高科 REIT 跌幅最大为 4.53%，同期沪深 300 上涨 0.79%， 中证 500 指数上涨 3.01%，中证全债指数下跌 0.25%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.04%，中债 10 年期国债指数下跌 0.33%，中证转债指数上涨 1.50%。 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 重点事件：1)华安张江 REIT 等共 41 支 REITs 发布 2024 年度 3 季报。2)招商基金蛇 口租赁住房 REIT 将于 10 月 23 日于深交所上市，上市无限售安排的份额为 1.3585 亿份，上市开盘参考价为 2.727 元/份，首日上张 7.15%。3)中金普洛斯 REIT 等 4 单 REITs 发布分红公告。4)红土创新深圳安居 REIT 等共 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's main business remains solid, with high growth in its two wings and international expansion despite market challenges [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 20.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue (million yuan)**: - 2022A: 19,934 - 2023A: 22,426 - 2024E: 25,180 (12% growth YoY) - 2025E: 28,660 - 2026E: 32,925 [1] - **Net Profit (million yuan)**: - 2022A: 3,136 - 2023A: 3,524 - 2024E: 4,256 (21% growth YoY) - 2025E: 5,066 - 2026E: 5,559 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (yuan)**: - 2022A: 1.86 - 2023A: 2.09 - 2024E: 2.52 - 2025E: 3.00 - 2026E: 3.29 [1] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2022A: 16.7 - 2023A: 14.9 - 2024E: 10.1 - 2025E: 8.5 - 2026E: 7.7 [1] - **P/B Ratio**: - 2022A: 2.5 - 2023A: 2.2 - 2024E: 1.6 - 2025E: 1.3 - 2026E: 1.2 [1] Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies in its gypsum board business, with significant revenue contributions from waterproofing and coating segments [1] - The waterproofing segment achieved a revenue of 3.578 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase [1] - The international business is performing well, with notable growth in overseas markets [1][2] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 4.26 billion, 5.07 billion, and 5.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position in the gypsum board industry and its potential for continued growth driven by cost advantages and high pricing power [1][2]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Performance meets expectations with continuous optimization of period expense ratio [1] - Revenue and profit slightly declined under high base, in line with expectations [2] - Sales expense ratio continues to optimize, net profit margin steadily increases [2] - BD progresses orderly, product matrix continues to enrich [3] - Core product competition remains stable, market share leads, laying a solid foundation for steady performance growth [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: RMB 1,771 million, down 7.18% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 565 million, down 6.58% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 519 million, down 10.69% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: RMB 5,805 million, down 11.19% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 1,903 million, down 2.13% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 1,699 million, down 7.06% YoY [2] Profitability - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin: 79.26%, down 2.44pp YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin: 32.78%, up 3.04pp YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 sales/management/financial expense ratios: 37.73%/10.30%/-3.54%, down 3.86pp, up 0.92pp, down 0.93pp YoY respectively [2] Forecast - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 9,183 million, RMB 10,004 million, RMB 10,772 million, with YoY growth of -5%, 9%, 8% respectively [3] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecast: RMB 2,709 million, RMB 3,030 million, RMB 3,270 million, with YoY growth of -4%, 12%, 8% respectively [3] Product Development - Strategic cooperation with Suzhou Yusen signed in July 2024 for innovative traditional Chinese medicine development in pediatric, respiratory, gynecological, and digestive fields [3] - 1 project entered clinical phase III, 2 projects entered pre-BE or BE stage by mid-year [3] - 4 new Chinese patent applications and 1 PCT international patent application submitted [3] - 1 Chinese patent and 1 European patent authorized [3] Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E: 10.4x [1] - 2024E P/B: 1.8x [1] - 2024E ROE: 17% [1] - 2024E EPS: RMB 2.94 [1] Market Data - Total shares: 921.70 million [2] - Market price: RMB 30.53 [2] - Market capitalization: RMB 28,139.63 million [2]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first nine months of 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached 52,281.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%[1] - The profit for September alone saw a year-on-year decline of 27.0%, a drop of 9.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - State-owned enterprises experienced a profit decline of 36.3% year-on-year, with the drop expanding by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Dynamics - Cumulative operating revenue increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while operating costs rose by 2.4%[6] - In September, operating costs increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while revenue remained flat[6] - The profit margin for September was 5.27%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous month[6] Group 3: Accounts Receivable and Inventory - By the end of September, accounts receivable and notes totaled 25.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6%[6] - Finished goods inventory stood at 6.47 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% month-on-month[6] - The year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory declined to 4.6%[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, showing a continuous improvement trend. The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, an increase of 12.17% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory into 2025, driven by the release of new products and a recovery in demand for its raw materials [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the steroid hormone sector, with risks from centralized procurement gradually alleviating and new product launches anticipated [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.304 billion yuan in 2024, 4.784 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.454 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.38%, 11.15%, and 14.01% respectively [1][3]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 678 million yuan in 2024, 821 million yuan in 2025, and 1.006 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.49%, 21.05%, and 22.47% respectively [1][3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 0.69 yuan in 2024, 0.83 yuan in 2025, and 1.02 yuan in 2026 [1][3]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 19.94 in 2024 to 11.16 in 2026, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.94 to 1.49 over the same period [1][3]. Business Segment Performance - **Formulations**: The core product, mometasone furoate nasal spray, is experiencing rapid growth, and new products are being launched successfully [2][3]. - **Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)**: The company is focusing on stabilizing prices and expanding into high-end markets for its APIs, with expectations of demand recovery [2][3]. - **Research and Development**: The company is increasing its R&D investment, which is expected to enhance its product pipeline and support future growth [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in revenue and profit, with the upcoming launch of Semaglutide expected to drive further growth. The small nucleic acid business is also entering a harvest phase, injecting new growth momentum [1]. - The company's revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024 is primarily attributed to the continued ramp-up of Dydrogesterone preparations and the recovery in demand for high-margin raw materials [1]. - The report anticipates that the company's performance will continue to maintain a steady growth trend due to the increasing volume of high-margin raw materials and the ongoing production ramp-up of Semaglutide and other peptide raw materials [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 1008.08 (25.48% growth) - 2023A: 1262.53 (25.24% growth) - 2024E: 1528.23 (21.04% growth) - 2025E: 1873.56 (22.60% growth) - 2026E: 2287.04 (22.07% growth) [1]. - **Net Profit (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 210.96 - 2023A: 289.42 - 2024E: 383.24 - 2025E: 500.91 - 2026E: 655.39 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (in CNY)**: - 2022A: 0.52 - 2023A: 0.71 - 2024E: 0.94 - 2025E: 1.23 - 2026E: 1.61 [1]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 48.67 - 2023A: 35.48 - 2024E: 26.79 - 2025E: 20.50 - 2026E: 15.67 [1]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 6.13 - 2023A: 5.22 - 2024E: 4.48 - 2025E: 3.97 - 2026E: 3.46 [1]. Quarterly Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.088 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.97%. The net profit for the same period was 284 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 22.04% [1][2]. - The gross margin remained stable, and the increase in revenue led to a decrease in expense ratios, with continuous investment in R&D [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the ramp-up of Dydrogesterone tablets and a rich pipeline of projects, including the expansion of production capacity for peptides and small nucleic acid drugs [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable performance amidst multiple pressures, with a focus on potential turning points following policy clarifications [1] - The company has shown resilience in its conventional business operations, with expectations for accelerated growth as various policies are fully implemented [1] - The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in research and development, which is expected to drive long-term growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 4,442 million - 2023A: 4,444 million - 2024E: 4,630 million - 2025E: 5,359 million - 2026E: 6,415 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 0%, 2024E: 4%, 2025E: 16%, 2026E: 20% [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,167 million - 2023A: 1,217 million - 2024E: 1,330 million - 2025E: 1,545 million - 2026E: 1,872 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 4%, 2024E: 9%, 2025E: 16%, 2026E: 21% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.01 - 2023A: 2.10 - 2024E: 2.29 - 2025E: 2.66 - 2026E: 3.22 [1] - **Cash Flow and Profitability**: - Cash flow per share: 2023A: 2.53, 2024E: 3.32, 2025E: 3.06, 2026E: 3.32 [1] - Return on equity (ROE): 2023A: 14%, 2024E: 13%, 2025E: 14%, 2026E: 14% [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 2023A: 21.3, 2024E: 19.5, 2025E: 16.8, 2026E: 13.9 [1] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: 2023A: 3.0, 2024E: 2.7, 2025E: 2.3, 2026E: 2.0 [1] Business Overview - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.13% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 3.37 billion, reflecting a decline of 5.18% year-on-year but a 14.01% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual release of pressure from regulatory policies, with a focus on enhancing its research and development capabilities [1] - The report indicates that the company’s self-developed products and increasing customer demand are expected to support growth in the chemical luminescence business, while the biochemical segment may face short-term pressure due to pricing adjustments [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient earnings growth, with expectations to meet annual targets [1] - Revenue growth for the first three quarters slightly exceeded expectations, although cash collection performance was weaker due to timing discrepancies in reporting [1] - The gross margin remains stable, with short-term fluctuations in tax and additional charges [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 124,100 million - 2023A: 147,694 million (yoy growth: 19%) - 2024E: 172,185 million (yoy growth: 17%) - 2025E: 196,109 million (yoy growth: 14%) - 2026E: 219,736 million (yoy growth: 12%) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 62,716 million - 2023A: 74,734 million (yoy growth: 19%) - 2024E: 87,287 million (yoy growth: 17%) - 2025E: 99,341 million (yoy growth: 14%) - 2026E: 111,007 million (yoy growth: 12%) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 59.49 - 2024E: 69.48 - 2025E: 79.08 - 2026E: 88.37 [3] - **Cash Flow Per Share**: - 2023A: 53.01 - 2024E: 54.74 - 2025E: 64.31 - 2026E: 74.54 [3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 33% - 2024E: 33.9% - 2025E: 33.7% - 2026E: 33.2% [2] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2023A: 26.2 - 2024E: 22.4 - 2025E: 19.7 - 2026E: 17.6 [3] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2023A: 9.1 - 2024E: 7.9 - 2025E: 7.0 - 2026E: 6.2 [3] Market Position and Trends - The company has maintained a stable delivery rhythm for its flagship products, with series liquor showing significant growth [1] - The overall performance in terms of sales collection is expected to stabilize throughout the year despite some quarterly fluctuations [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that despite the third quarter not being as strong as expected, the company demonstrated operational resilience with both revenue and profit showing quarter-on-quarter growth [1] - The company is expected to benefit from industry recovery and market opportunities, particularly in the DRAM and MCU segments, with a focus on expanding product lines and maintaining competitive advantages [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 8,130 million - 2023A: 5,761 million (yoy -29%) - 2024E: 7,426 million (yoy +29%) - 2025E: 9,739 million (yoy +31%) - 2026E: 11,566 million (yoy +19%) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 2,053 million - 2023A: 161 million (yoy -92%) - 2024E: 1,069 million (yoy +563%) - 2025E: 1,607 million (yoy +50%) - 2026E: 2,066 million (yoy +29%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 3.08 - 2023A: 0.24 - 2024E: 1.61 - 2025E: 2.41 - 2026E: 3.10 [1] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: 1,187 million, expected to increase to 1,886 million in 2024E [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings in the DRAM sector, with procurement expected to increase significantly in 2024, indicating a strong market position [1] - The MCU segment is also showing signs of recovery, with new product launches aimed at automotive applications, which are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix and maintaining a competitive edge in the semiconductor market [1]