Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The education industry is experiencing significant expansion driven by technological changes and demographic shifts, with leading companies like New Oriental and TAL Education capitalizing on these trends [7][9]. - AI is enhancing educational efficiency and is expected to play a crucial role in the commercialization of education, with a clear path for future growth [9][90]. - The competitive landscape in AI+education is characterized by clear barriers, favoring companies with strong product capabilities and effective promotional strategies [9][90]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the dual drivers of technological transformation and demographic changes that are expanding the education market [9][14]. - New Oriental and TAL Education have successfully navigated these changes, achieving substantial revenue growth and market penetration [9][14]. Company Performance - New Oriental's revenue reached $4.28 billion in FY2021, with a 15-year CAGR of 28.9%, while its Non-GAAP net profit was $390 million, growing at a CAGR of 26.4% [9][22]. - TAL Education reported $4.5 billion in revenue for FY2021, with a 10-year CAGR of 44.8%, showcasing its effective market strategies [9][60]. AI in Education - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on educational efficiency, with advancements in long-text processing and cost reduction expected to enhance teaching quality [90][95]. - The ongoing development of general-purpose AI models is anticipated to provide educational companies with tools to improve their offerings and reach [90][95]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich vertical data and strong product capabilities, such as Doushen Education, Rongxin Culture, and Century Tianhong, as well as those with effective customer outreach like Southern Media and New Oriental [9][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a significant divergence, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Wind All A Index increased by 1.81%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, and the CSI 300 Index slightly declined by 0.62%. The small-cap index, CSI 2000, outperformed with a rise of 4.04% [2][8] - Market liquidity remains robust despite a 19.22% decrease in average daily trading volume to approximately 2.80 trillion yuan, indicating that funds have not significantly withdrawn from the market [2][8] - The market's profitability effect has notably improved, with an average of 59.84% of stocks rising during the week, a significant increase compared to the previous week [2][8] Group 2 - The divergence in the A-share market has intensified, with small-cap stocks significantly outperforming large-cap stocks, and growth stocks outperforming value stocks. The preference for high-beta and high-elasticity assets is becoming more pronounced [3][9] - The current market dynamics are driven by changes in risk appetite, liquidity conditions, adjustments in funding structures under counter-cyclical regulation, and the timing of earnings disclosures [3][10] - The risk appetite has rebounded, supported by a relatively loose liquidity environment, which has strengthened support for high-elasticity sectors. The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has also improved the attractiveness of Chinese assets for cross-border capital [10][13] Group 3 - Short-term market divergence is expected to continue, supported by the ongoing profitability effect in high-elasticity sectors, while the overall liquidity environment remains relatively loose [4][10] - The market is currently in a signal vacuum regarding fundamentals, lacking substantial information shocks, which allows for potential valuation increases in high-growth sectors [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and resource security issues are also influencing the A-share market, with rising global commodity prices benefiting cyclical sectors [14][10] Group 4 - Investment strategies should adopt a segmented and dynamic approach, focusing on high-elasticity sectors such as robotics in the short term, while shifting attention to the overseas computing power industry chain as earnings expectations improve post-Spring Festival [5][15] - After the Two Sessions, there should be a gradual increase in defensive allocations, particularly in undervalued, high-dividend sectors like banking [5][15] - It is recommended to adjust portfolio structures flexibly according to the core themes of different stages, while increasing the focus on earnings realization and valuation alignment [5][15]

城商行Ⅱ | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 35010 | 38375 | 39068 | 40875 | 44132 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 增长率 yoy% | 6.33% | 9.61% | 1.81% | 4.63% | 7.97% | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 14383 | 16983 | 19010 | 20984 | 23020 | | 分析师：邓美君 | | 增长率 yoy% | 23.15% | 18.08% | 11.93% | 10.39% | 9.70% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 2.36 | 2.74 | 2.62 | 2.89 | 3.18 | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a stable upward trend in prices due to a tightening supply outlook and high demand levels, particularly driven by cold weather conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventories, with port inventories down to 26.28 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.22% [8]. - The daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 6.876 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.14% and a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,903.919 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,862.614 billion yuan [2][5]. 2. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with a recent price of 690 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Coking coal prices have increased by 30 yuan per ton at the port, indicating a strong demand from steel production [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is stable but shows signs of marginal contraction as production halts are anticipated due to the upcoming holiday season [7][8]. - The report forecasts that coal imports may continue to decline, with a projected decrease of 11.57% in 2025 compared to 2024 [7]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75% to 88% of distributable profits [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cash flow and low valuations, recommending investments in firms like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8][13].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis, as it primarily focuses on the analysis of active equity funds' holdings, preferences, and structural changes in Q4 2025[3][6][7] - The report provides detailed insights into the number, scale, and allocation preferences of active equity funds, including their industry and sectoral adjustments, but does not include any specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[3][6][7] - The analysis highlights the changes in fund holdings and preferences, such as increased allocation to cyclical and financial sectors and reduced allocation to technology and healthcare, but no quantitative models or factors are discussed[44][48][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (603766.SH) for the first time [2]. Core Viewpoints - Longxin General has a strong focus on the motorcycle and general machinery sectors, with recent asset restructuring and the elimination of impairment losses, allowing the company to concentrate on its core business and drive growth [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-displacement motorcycles domestically and the expansion of its global presence, particularly in Europe and Latin America [7][8]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth and improving profitability driven by the successful performance of its VOGE brand and other product lines [9]. Company Overview - Longxin General has been deeply engaged in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors since its establishment in 1993, with a focus on expanding its core business [13]. - The company has undergone several strategic shifts, with a recent emphasis on "motorcycles + general machinery" as its main strategy, gradually divesting non-core businesses [24][26]. - The product structure includes motorcycles (both fuel and electric), all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery, with a strong emphasis on high-displacement motorcycles under the VOGE brand [16][18]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from 13,066 million yuan in 2023 to 27,632 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2,787 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase in profitability driven by the core motorcycle business [2]. - The company's overseas revenue has increased significantly, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, driven by the success of its VOGE and general machinery products in international markets [27]. Motorcycle Industry Insights - The domestic market for motorcycles is facing challenges, but the high-displacement segment is experiencing growth, with the share of motorcycles over 250cc increasing from 6.6% to 10.1% from 2023 to 2025 [43][45]. - The competitive landscape in the high-displacement motorcycle market is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies like Longxin General capturing significant market share [45]. - The export market, particularly in Europe and Latin America, is expected to be a major source of growth, with increasing demand for high-displacement motorcycles [8][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (隆鑫通用) for the first time [2]. Core Insights - Longxin General has a strong focus on motorcycles and general machinery, with recent asset restructuring and the elimination of impairment drag, positioning the company for growth in its core business [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-displacement motorcycles domestically and is expanding its global footprint, particularly in Europe and Latin America [7][8]. - The financial forecast indicates significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a projected net profit of 2.79 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in valuation [9]. Company Overview - Longxin General has been deeply involved in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors since its establishment in 1993, with a focus on expanding its core business [13]. - The company has undergone several strategic shifts, now concentrating on "motorcycles + general machinery" while divesting non-core businesses [24]. - The recent asset restructuring has strengthened resource synergies with Zongshen, enhancing operational efficiency [22]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a projected increase from 13.066 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.632 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [2]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2.787 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 92% in 2024 [2][9]. - The motorcycle segment is the primary revenue driver, accounting for approximately 60% of total revenue, with a notable increase in the share of high-value products [37]. Motorcycle Industry Insights - The domestic market for motorcycles is experiencing a shift, with a decline in total sales but an increase in the high-displacement segment, which is expected to grow due to changing consumer preferences [43]. - The company is well-positioned in the high-displacement motorcycle market, with a significant increase in sales volume and market share [45]. - Export markets, particularly in Europe and Latin America, are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with the company expanding its presence in these regions [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Nanjing Bank [2] Core Views - Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue of 55.32 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 21.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% and a provision coverage ratio of 313.31% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: - 2023A revenue: 45.006 billion yuan, 2024A: 50.069 billion yuan, 2025E: 55.322 billion yuan, 2026E: 60.654 billion yuan, 2027E: 65.901 billion yuan [2] - Net profit: 2023A: 18.502 billion yuan, 2024A: 20.177 billion yuan, 2025E: 21.806 billion yuan, 2026E: 23.827 billion yuan, 2027E: 26.005 billion yuan [2] - Loan and deposit growth: - Total assets reached 3.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [6] - Total loans amounted to 1.42 trillion yuan, growing by 13.4% [6] - Total deposits were 1.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [6] - Profitability metrics: - Return on equity (ROE) for 2025E is projected at 12.74% [2] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is estimated at 6.02 [2] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for 2025E is projected at 0.70 [2] Asset Quality Summary - Non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.83% [6] - Provision coverage ratio improved slightly to 313.31% [6] - The bank's management is noted for its excellence and the operational region is economically developed, contributing to sustained growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Nanjing Bank [2] Core Views - Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue of 55.32 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 21.81 billion yuan, with an 8.1% year-on-year increase [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% and a provision coverage ratio of 313.31% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: - 2023A revenue: 45.006 billion yuan, 2024A: 50.069 billion yuan, 2025E: 55.322 billion yuan, 2026E: 60.654 billion yuan, 2027E: 65.901 billion yuan [2] - Net profit: 2023A: 18.502 billion yuan, 2024A: 20.177 billion yuan, 2025E: 21.806 billion yuan, 2026E: 23.827 billion yuan, 2027E: 26.005 billion yuan [2] - Asset and liability growth: - Total assets reached 3.02 trillion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year, with total loans of 1.42 trillion yuan, up 13.4% [6] - Total liabilities were 2.82 trillion yuan, growing 17.4% year-on-year, with total deposits of 1.67 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.7% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: - 2024A: 1.79 yuan, 2025E: 1.73 yuan, 2026E: 1.89 yuan, 2027E: 2.07 yuan [2] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast: - 2024A: 5.84, 2025E: 6.02, 2026E: 5.50, 2027E: 5.04 [2] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio forecast: - 2024A: 0.73, 2025E: 0.70, 2026E: 0.64, 2027E: 0.58 [2] Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Nanjing Bank's strong performance, high growth in loans and deposits, and low non-performing loan ratio indicate a stable future with potential for high dividends, thus maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [6]