Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of TSLP-targeted bispecific antibodies in addressing unmet needs in the autoimmune sector, particularly in asthma and atopic dermatitis [4][6] - The success of Dupilumab (Dupi) illustrates the demand for long-acting, multi-indication therapies in a market characterized by high patient numbers and chronic conditions [5][15] - The report identifies a significant market opportunity driven by high disease prevalence and the need for new therapeutic options [5][15] Summary by Sections High Disease Prevalence Creates Market Opportunities - The report highlights the large patient populations for conditions like asthma and atopic dermatitis, with millions affected, indicating a substantial market for new treatments [14][15] - Existing therapies have unmet needs, particularly in terms of long-acting formulations and improved efficacy [18][19] Focus on Bispecific Antibodies - The report suggests prioritizing bispecific antibodies that target TSLP and IL-13, as they have shown clinical promise in enhancing efficacy and expanding patient populations [6][22] - Companies such as 康诺亚, 信达生物, 荃信生物, and 联邦制药 are identified as key players in this space [6] Respiratory Diseases and Bispecific Antibodies - In the respiratory disease sector, particularly asthma and COPD, the report notes the need for long-term management and the potential of bispecific antibodies to address this challenge [25][37] - The market for asthma biologics is projected to reach approximately $7.5 billion by 2023, with significant growth expected [25][28] Clinical Data and Efficacy - The report discusses the clinical efficacy of various biologics, noting that Dupilumab and Tezepelumab have shown significant improvements in asthma control and quality of life [34][35] - The combination of TSLP and IL-4R is highlighted as a promising therapeutic strategy, with early clinical data supporting its potential [37][47]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In August, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises reached 20.4% year-on-year, a significant increase of 21.9 percentage points from the previous value, indicating marginal improvement despite a low base effect[9] - The cumulative profit growth rate for industrial enterprises from January to August was 0.9%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous value[9] - The industrial profit margin in August was 5.83%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points from the previous value, with operating income rising by 2.32% month-on-month[9] Group 2: Price Recovery and Demand - The recovery in industrial product prices is the main driver of profit improvement, benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate improved by 0.7 percentage points to -2.9% in August, supporting profit recovery[9] - Industrial enterprises are still cautious in production, with finished goods inventory continuing to decline, reflecting insufficient effective demand[12] Group 3: Revenue and Employment Impact - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' operating income was 2.3% from January to August, indicating a potential limitation on the recovery of residents' income[14] - Private and joint-stock industrial enterprises showed positive profit growth rates of 3.3% and 1.1%, respectively, while state-owned enterprises reported a profit decline of 1.7%[14] - The improvement in operating income for private and joint-stock enterprises is expected to positively impact employment and income stability[14] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - In September, industrial prices are expected to continue rising, supporting profit improvement, but the sustainability of this price recovery is uncertain[19] - The effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy may weaken in the fourth quarter, potentially reducing support for profit improvement[19] - Risks include intensified Sino-U.S. trade tensions, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and policy effectiveness falling short of expectations[21]

Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Maintain [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a stabilization phase, with a focus on credit issuance and interest margin improvement. The performance of the banking sector is expected to remain volatile due to changes in investor risk appetite and the rising profitability of technology growth sectors in the A-share market [6][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Closing Index: 4018.96 - 52-Week High: 4670.31 - 52-Week Low: 3552.99 [1] Banking Liquidity Review - From August 6 to September 25, the fluctuation of interbank funds was smaller than the same period last year. The DR007-OMO rates showed an upward trend in late August due to tax periods and improved bank credit issuance, followed by a downward trend in early September due to weak PMI data. By mid to late September, the rates increased again due to accelerated asset issuance by banks and regulatory compliance [12][17]. Monitoring of Liquidity Indicators - The usage of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) improved due to increased medium to long-term funding from the central bank. However, the net financing growth of state-owned banks' CDs may decline marginally due to reduced deposit maturity volumes [5][18]. - The excess reserve ratio was measured at 1.29% in August 2025, remaining above levels from the past two years. The NSFR for large banks was 107.01%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a stable liquidity structure [23][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant deposit maturities and potential interest margin improvements, such as Bank of Communications and Chengdu Bank. Additionally, it recommends looking at state-owned banks that benefit from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, like China Merchants Bank [6][32].

Economic Performance - The PPI growth rate is expected to continue to rise slightly in the short term, but the momentum for recovery is slowing down, with an anticipated year-end PPI growth rate unlikely to exceed -2%[2][40] - In September, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.39% compared to August, with a year-on-year growth of 10.91%[11][12] Industrial Demand and Supply - The rebar production rate decreased to an average of 42.21% in September, down 1.65 percentage points from August, indicating a slowdown in industrial demand[17][18] - The average price of rebar fell by 1.88% year-on-year, while inventory levels rose by 7.59% compared to August, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance[18] Export and Trade - Exports are expected to face marginal pressure, particularly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with a notable "rush to export" behavior observed in the first half of the year[3][40] - From January to August 2025, Xinjiang's total foreign trade value reached 356.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%[3][40] Consumer Behavior - The inbound tourism sector is showing robust growth, with tax refund sales increasing by 97.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year, indicating a conversion of inbound flow into consumer spending[27][41] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.98% year-on-year, reflecting sustained consumer activity despite a slight month-on-month decline[23][24] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations[4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The bond market may move forward in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [3][5][16] - There is still an opportunity for overall easing in monetary policy, and the period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] - The "redemption pressure" has become long - term and complex, which may still impact the bond market in the fourth quarter [4][12][14] Group 2: Core Views Short - and Medium - term Views - In the short term, the bond market is still under pressure. It is important to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If it is verified that around 1.8% is the relatively top level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic of the downward - trending yield can still be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is more reflected in the term spread premium, and in extreme cases, it may return to the level of 50 - 60BP [3][10] Monetary Policy Views - The third - quarter monetary policy meeting did not release clear incremental policy signals. But considering factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the adjustment of liability interest rates after the previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the policy demand to maintain economic improvement, and the marginal cooling of the equity market sentiment, there is still an opportunity for overall easing. The period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] Redemption Pressure Views - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The redemption game around the systematic adjustment of the product liability side is ongoing. The institutional - end redemption may be more orderly, which may lead to a stage where the upward risk of yields is controllable but difficult to decline significantly. However, there may also be a stage of concentrated release of negative - feedback risks [4][12][14] Seasonal, Valuation, and Factor Analysis - Seasonally, since 2010, in 15 years, the 10 - year yield has accumulated an increase in 8 years and a decrease in 7 years in the fourth quarter. Considering the cumulative decline in the first three quarters, the bond market in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak and in need of adjustment. In terms of valuation, the bond market has allocation value. Considering factors such as the slowdown of supply pressure, the possible occurrence of monetary easing opportunities, and the continuous existence of redemption pressure, the bond market may alternate between recovery and adjustment [5][16] Group 3: Content Summarized by Directory Fourth - Quarter Bond Market Outlook - Short - term pressure remains, and it is necessary to verify the decline of long - term interest rate rebound highs. Medium - term risk preference recovery affects term spreads. There is an opportunity for monetary easing around the October meeting. The redemption pressure is long - term and complex, and the bond market may move forward in a volatile manner, alternating between recovery due to allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure [3][4][5] Comparison of Monetary Policy Meetings in Q3 and Q2 of 2025 - The assessment of the economic situation has not changed significantly. The monetary policy emphasizes continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight. It aims to maintain liquidity, guide credit investment, reduce financing costs, and support key areas [11][12][13] Impact of Redemption Pressure on the Bond Market - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The institutional - end redemption demand is increasing, the asset - end selection space after redemption is limited, and there is time for adjustment during the transition period. This may lead to a complex impact on the bond market [4][12][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on shareholder returns and the new park's establishment is expected to empower diversified development [4] - The traditional main business is under pressure, while the digital and media segments show impressive growth [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 12.20 yuan - Total shares: 1.796 billion - Total market capitalization: 21.9 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 15.14/12.02 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 40.1% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 16.05 [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.09%, and a net profit of 1.017 billion yuan, down 31.46% [4] - The publishing business generated revenue of 5.327 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 9.26%, while the digital and media business saw revenue growth of 44.89% [5][6] - The comprehensive gross margin improved to 45.84%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.7 billion, 14.2 billion, and 14.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.72 billion, 1.83 billion, and 1.89 billion yuan [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.96, 1.02, and 1.05 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 13, 12, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The advertising business is showing steady recovery, with the company entering the computing power sector to cultivate new growth points [5][6]. - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.83% to 144 million yuan [5]. - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with a decrease in expense ratio to 11.24% [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 30.15 yuan - Total shares: 2.11 billion, with a total market value of 6.4 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.68 [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for Q2 2025 was 840 million yuan, down 13.93% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 13.15% to 71 million yuan [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow turned positive in H1 2025, reaching 569 million yuan, with cash reserves increasing by 47.18% to 919 million yuan [6]. Strategic Developments - The company is diversifying its investments, collaborating with Keton Technology in chip distribution and computing power services [7]. - In the sports lottery sector, the company has established over 30 lottery image stores and is working on a project with the railway bureau to enhance lottery services [7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology in marketing, with expectations for the AI marketing market in China to grow significantly [8][9]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.691 billion, 4.208 billion, and 4.569 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 353 million, 502 million, and 561 million yuan [10][12]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 1.68, 2.38, and 2.66 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].

- The report introduces the **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model**, which tracks industry trends based on momentum strategies. The model has been monitored for four years, with notable performance in 2021 when it captured industry trends effectively, achieving an excess return of over 25% before experiencing a significant drawdown due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2025, the model suggested allocating to industries such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, communication, banking, media, and retail trade[24][28] - The **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model** ranks industries weekly based on diffusion index values. As of September 26, 2025, the top six industries were communication (0.949), non-ferrous metals (0.927), banking (0.897), electronics (0.864), automotive (0.859), and comprehensive (0.811). The bottom six industries were food and beverage (0.153), non-bank finance (0.212), coal (0.342), construction (0.348), real estate (0.362), and consumer services (0.415)[25][26][27] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but performs less effectively in long cycles. The model has been operational since 2021, achieving significant excess returns initially. However, in 2025, the model faced challenges in capturing excess returns due to concentrated market themes and speculative trading[31][37] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** ranks industries weekly based on GRU factor values. As of September 26, 2025, the top six industries were steel (3.15), real estate (2.6), building materials (2.08), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.85), transportation (0.81), and electric power and utilities (0.01). The bottom six industries were computing (-32.91), media (-29.46), communication (-17.57), food and beverage (-13.4), pharmaceuticals (-13.36), and non-ferrous metals (-12.73)[6][13][32] - The **Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model** achieved an average weekly return of -0.00%, with an excess return of 0.78% compared to the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries. Since September, the model has recorded an excess return of -1.10%, and a year-to-date excess return of 3.68%[23][28] - The **GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model** recorded an average weekly return of -0.61%, with an excess return of 0.17% compared to the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries. Since September, the model has achieved an excess return of 0.07%, and a year-to-date excess return of -7.53%[31][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses: production is steadily rising, steel production is relatively stable, asphalt operating rate reaches the highest in the past two years, and the fiscal expenditure progress may accelerate; the real - estate market shows marginal improvement with the commercial housing transaction area rising for two consecutive weeks; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and copper prices, slight decreases in coking coal and rebar of the black series, and agricultural product prices rising again; domestic and foreign freight rate indices show different trends, with BDI rising steadily and SCFI declining rapidly; affected by extreme weather such as typhoons, the number of executed flights decreases, with a large decline in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao region. Short - term focus is on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Steel production rises steadily, and asphalt operating rate hits a two - year high - Steel: In the week of September 26, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output increased by 0.01 tons. The inventory decreased by 0.66 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 40.1%, an increase of 5.7 pct from the previous week, reaching the highest since October 2023 [10]. - Chemical industry: On September 25, the domestic chemical PX operating rate increased by 0.73 pct from the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.64 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: In the week of September 25, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct [11]. Demand: Commercial housing transactions improve marginally, and SCFI declines rapidly - Real estate: In the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.79 million square meters; the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities increased; the land supply area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.41 million square meters; the premium rate of residential land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 1.43 pct [16]. - Movie box office: In the week of September 21, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 1.098 billion yuan [16]. - Automobiles: In the week of September 21, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.43 million vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 0.96 million vehicles [20]. - Shipping index: In the week of September 26, SCFI decreased by 6.98%, CCFI decreased by 2.93%, and BDI increased by 2.54% [22]. Prices: Crude oil and copper prices rise significantly, and agricultural product prices rise again - Energy: On September 26, the Brent crude oil price rose by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.12% to 1,214.5 yuan per ton [24]. - Metals: On September 26, the changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were +2.09%, -1.01%, and -0.41% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.60% [25]. - Agricultural products: On September 26, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.93%. Among major agricultural products, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.31%, +1.44%, +2.01%, and +1.61% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. Logistics: The subway passenger volume increases, and the number of executed flights decreases - Subway passenger volume: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 203,500 person - times, and that of Shanghai increased by 285,700 person - times [30]. - Executed flights: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreased by 521.43 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 58.43 flights, and international flights decreased by 32.57 flights [32]. - Urban traffic: On September 26, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [32]. Summary: Asphalt production speeds up, and crude oil and copper prices rise - The high - frequency economic data focuses are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing short - term attention to policy implementation, real - estate market recovery, and overseas policy impacts [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has a rich reserve of film and television projects, with a focus on the performance of films during the National Day holiday period. The first half of 2025 saw significant revenue growth, with a 114.95% year-on-year increase in operating income and a 65.06% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][9]. - Despite a slowdown in revenue growth in Q2 2025 due to fewer releases, the company is expected to recover as it has a robust pipeline of projects, including several anticipated films and series [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 9.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 176 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 151 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.31 [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating income of 790 million yuan, with a net profit of 118 million yuan. The second quarter saw a revenue of 204 million yuan, reflecting a 6.80% year-on-year growth, although net profit decreased by 38.31% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin in Q2 2025 was 43.25%, down 12.79 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased due to pre-launch promotional costs for key projects [5]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as short dramas and animation, with a monthly production capacity of 20 short dramas as of the first half of 2025. It is also exploring international markets, achieving a 28.48% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [6][7]. - The company is enhancing its AI service capabilities, with software and hardware developments expected to contribute to revenue growth in the future. In the first half of 2025, it generated 57 million yuan from its AI services [7][9]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 449 million yuan, 504 million yuan, and 565 million yuan for the same years [11][14].