有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 供给方面，2 月美国再生铜原料出口量为 7.1 万吨，环比下降 0.28%，同比下滑 6.2%，延续收缩态势。国内铜精矿供需偏紧，TC 跌 至-26.25 美元/干吨，炼企冶炼亏损持续。 需求方面，据 SMM 调研，3 月份是漆包线行业的传统旺季，整个 行业的开工率达到旺季水平。3 月份行业综合开工率为 74.37%，环比 增加 18.38 个百分点，同比变化不大。据 SMM 数据显示，3 月铜管企 业开工率为 85.23%，环比增加 14.95 个百分点，同比减少 0.74 个百分 点。2025 年 4 月铜管预计开工率为 85.81%，环比增加 0.58 个百分点， 同比减少 0.72 个百分点。据产业在线数据显示，4 月空调内销排产较 去年同期内销实际增长 9.1%，出口增长 7.5%。2025 年 3 月中国铜箔 企业的开工率 71.82%，环比上升 4.17 个百分点，同比上升 11.38 个百 分点。本轮铜价跌停当天，下游订单积极涌入，现货升水报价。 相关图表 证监许可【2011】1772 号 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F030 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：71000-73000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：用铜企业逢低买入保值操作思路，铜价止跌后考虑做空基差套利策略。 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美国对华征收关税已经超过 100%，作为反制措施，中国上调美国商品进 口关税至 84%。关税战仍在发酵对金融市场的稳定性造成负面影响。 2、供给方面，印尼政府关于提高铜矿企业特许使用费的规定将于 4 月第二周执行。洛 阳钼业 2025 年第一季度运营报告显示，其铜产量同比大幅增长 15.65%，达到 17.06 万吨。 根据该公司设定的 2025 年度产量目标（60 万至 66 万吨），仅第一季度就已完成全年目标 下限的近三成。 3、需求方面，国家电网一季度加快电网投资建设，推进大规模设备更新改造，截至 3 月底该公司电网投资同比增长 27.7%，创一季度历史新高。国家电网公司预计 2025 年将进 一步加大投资力度，全年电网投资有望首次超过 6500 亿元。2025 年，南方电网的固定资产 投资预计达 1750 亿元，再创 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: Indexes are differentiated, with large - cap stocks continuing to rebound in the short - term and in a wide - range shock in the medium - term. For bonds, there is a short - term shock adjustment and long - term bonds continue to correct, but are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Steel prices are gradually falling in the short - term and under pressure in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Indexes are differentiated, and large - cap stocks continue to rebound [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range shock, index differentiation [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold a long IH2504 and short IM2504 hedging portfolio, and buy IO2504 - C - 3750 call options [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic market - stabilizing policies are introduced, which helps large - cap indexes rebound. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy causes uncertainty and overseas risk - asset selling pressure disturbs the domestic market [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Shock adjustment, long - term bonds continue to correct [2]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation, and take profit for trading positions [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term repo rates of deposit - taking institutions rise slightly, and medium - and long - term funds stop falling. Domestic market - stabilizing policies lead to profit - taking pressure on bonds. The "equal - tariff" policy increases uncertainty, and funds flow to safe - haven assets, raising expectations of "loose money" [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Intraday View**: Steel prices gradually fall [4]. - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450 and buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [6]. - **Core Logic**: Raw material inventory pressure is high, which may increase steel supply. Downstream demand is weak, and construction project funds are in short supply, resulting in slow construction progress and weak steel consumption. Before the introduction of domestic fiscal stimulus policies, steel prices may continue to fall [4][5].

股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.07） 金融期货和期权 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：多 IH2504 空 IM2504 对冲组合短期操作，指数低位买入 IO2504-C-3750 看 涨期权 核心逻辑： 1、美国加征关税政策引发全球资本市场连锁反应，海外股市大幅下跌，美国三大指数 均接近双位数跌幅，欧洲股市普遍跌幅超过 5%，亚太市场弱势分化。海外风险资产抛压情 绪预计拖累国内市场，短期 A 股大概率进入补跌阶段。 2、国内政策对冲预期升温。基本面来看，3 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.5%，连续第二个月 回升，符合季节性规律，但仍明显低于去年同期水平。 政策端，国有四大行补充核心一级 资本方案正式落地，合计募资 5200 亿元，其中财政部通过发行 5000 亿元特别国债给予支持； 两办发布《关于完善价格治理机制的意见》，加快能源、公用事业、农业、公共服务、公共 数据等领域价格市场化改革。外部关税风险扰动下，国内市场对于货币政策宽松等政策对冲 预期升温，利于市场情绪企稳反弹。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 国债期货 品种：TS ...

Group 1: Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Copper) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,000 - 81,000 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term. It is recommended to adopt an operation idea of weakening in the shock and a hedging operation idea of buying on dips for copper - using enterprises [1] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The market is closely watching the upcoming US tariff policy, which is expected to have a negative impact on the financial market [1] - **Supply**: India's refined copper production in the 2024 - 25 fiscal year increased by 7.1% to 497,000 tons. In Q1, Western Mining's mine production of copper increased by 13% year - on - year, and smelting production increased by 57%. Chile's copper production in February 2025 decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons. Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to produce 433,000 tons of refined copper in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year [1] - **Demand**: After the copper price fell below 80,000, the consumption of refined copper rods improved month - on - month, but most of the orders were backlogs. The actual new consumption was less optimistic than expected. In March, the order volume of brass rod enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate in March was 73.6%, up 12.71 percentage points month - on - month and 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [2] - **Inventory**: On April 2, the copper warehouse receipts on the SHFE decreased by 5,624 tons to 130,379 tons [2] - **Outlook**: The tight supply of global copper concentrates and scrap copper boosts the copper price, but high prices have a negative impact on downstream consumption [2] Group 2: Breeding, Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector (Protein Meal) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The protein meal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short - term. In the medium - term, soybean meal is stronger in the far - term and weaker in the near - term, and it will be below 3,000 before the expiration of 2505. It is recommended to short soybean meal 2505 on rallies [3] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Policy and Market**: The USDA's planting area intention report on soybeans met expectations, and the US soybean futures slightly declined but then rose due to a small increase in US soybean oil. There were tariff changes in early March, and the "reciprocal tariff" had no official announcement as of April 2 [3] - **International Soybean**: Brazil's new - crop soybeans are about to be launched. Conab said 81.4% had been harvested as of the 29th, compared with 71% last year. Multiple institutions estimated Brazil's output to be between 166 million and 171 million tons. ANEC expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to increase slightly to 15.56 million tons. The domestic trade data showed that the total arrival in April would exceed 10 million tons. The USDA's report showed that US farmers' soybean planting area this year was about 83.5 million acres, and the corn planting area was 95.32 million acres, a 5% year - on - year increase [4] - **Rapeseed**: The recent rapeseed inventory is still sufficient. Statistics Canada estimated that the rapeseed planting area in 2025 would be 21.646 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the 25/26 ending inventory forecast from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4] - **Outlook**: If the new US tariff is implemented on April 2, agricultural product prices may fluctuate widely. It is still recommended to short near - term soybean meal contracts on rallies after April when South American soybeans arrive in China. Going long on palm oil and short on soybean meal is also an option [5] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals Sector (Petroleum Asphalt) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The asphalt is expected to have weak fluctuations in the short - term and turn from weak to strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to short asphalt and long crude oil spreads [6] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the loss of local refineries in asphalt production has decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has slightly declined. As of March 28, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. It is expected that the asphalt production plan in April will decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease [6] - **Demand**: The rigid demand for asphalt has improved steadily. The warming temperatures in Shandong and Central China have led to the start of road terminal projects. The previous continuous rise in international oil prices has also driven the release of some speculative demand. However, the operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has shown a weakening trend. As of March 28, the domestic waterproofing membrane enterprise operating rate was 28.0%, a 4.0 - percentage - point week - on - week decline and a 2 - percentage - point decline from the same period last year [7] - **Inventory**: Due to the quantity - price discount policies of some refineries, downstream traders have stocked up, resulting in a decrease in refinery inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of April 1, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 538,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons week - on - week [7] - **Cost**: Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on the purchase of Iranian and Russian oil and the upcoming reciprocal tariff policy have led to short - term range - bound fluctuations in oil prices. In the long - term, the supply increase expectation is strengthening. The oil price may have a pulse - type increase if geopolitical risks escalate, but the increase space is expected to be limited. The oil price center will move down in the summer [7] - **Outlook**: In the near term, the asphalt fundamentals are still weak, and the cost has been consolidating after continuous increases. In the long term, due to the lack of guarantee for refinery processing profits, the asphalt supply increase is expected to be limited. The asphalt market may have a small peak season from April to May, and the asphalt crack spread is expected to be weak first and then strong [8]

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Futures**: The short - term view is stable but weak, and there is significant supply pressure from March to April. The trading logic is to sell on rebounds. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in accumulative sales option products [1][3]. - **Sugar Futures**: The short - term view is stable but strong, and the medium - term view is first rising then falling. It is recommended to continue holding the 9890 call option [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The short - term view is that the bottom is rising, and the medium - term view is under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on SC2506 [5][7]. - **PVC Futures**: The short - term view is range - bound between 5050 and 5250, and the medium - term view is that the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to participate in the PVC 5 - 9 reverse spread when the price increase narrows [8]. Group 2: Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of February 2025, the national inventory of fertile sows was 4.066 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. The supply of pigs calculated based on production capacity data is still sufficient [1]. - **Restocking**: Since mid - March, farmers' restocking enthusiasm has increased, and the price of piglets has reached a new high for the year. The supply of pigs in the second half of the year may be more abundant [2]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: From March to April, there is significant supply pressure, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The futures market is in a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom - support on the downside [3]. Sugar - **Negative Factors**: The news of India's sugar production reduction in the 24/25 season has been digested. Brazil's improved weather, currency depreciation, and speculative funds' profit - taking have put pressure on the raw sugar price [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Brazil's low inventory restricts its export space, and India's sugar production reduction and ethanol diversion have intensified inventory shortages. There may be a short - term shortage in the trade flow during the transition period between the old and new seasons [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + announced a monthly compensatory production cut plan from March this year to June next year, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have affected supply. The production of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to decline from April [5]. - **Demand**: In March, the domestic gasoline and diesel market was weak, and the demand for refined oil was affected by refinery maintenance. The operating rate of US refineries has not returned to normal [5]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased after three consecutive weeks of accumulation. The WTI and Brent are in a Back structure, and the spread in the near - end market is expected to widen slightly [6][7]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: In the short term, oil prices are expected to gradually rise from the bottom. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price center will move down [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest region has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased. As of March 28, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: Some PVC plants were under maintenance last week, and there are no planned maintenance enterprises next week. The industry will enter a concentrated maintenance period from April to May, and supply will decline seasonally [8]. - **Demand**: The pre - sales orders of PVC production enterprises have improved, the export has increased slightly, but the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has increased slowly [8]. - **Inventory**: PVC inventories have decreased for six consecutive weeks. As of March 28, the domestic social inventory of PVC was 469,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [9]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: After entering the maintenance season in April, the supply pressure may ease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of prices is insufficient [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]

策略早餐 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：20800-21000 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有 核心逻辑： 1、社会库存方面，截至 3 月 27 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 80.1 万吨，较上周下降 3.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 86.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 的最低位。 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.03.28） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 2、春节假期归来，下游陆续开工，需求有望回暖，提振铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：短期反弹 中期观点：承压运行 参考策略：热卷 05-10 跨期正套（多 HC2505、空 HC2510） 核心逻辑： 1、"金三银四"传统施工旺季支撑钢材整体消费季节性回升，为钢材基本面带来边际 改善并短期支撑钢价反弹，但目前下游建筑资金到位情况仍然不佳，螺纹钢消费量 245.32 万吨，环比+0.96%，农历同比-11.10%，对钢材整体消费产生拖累，五大品种钢材消费量 919.78 万吨，环比+1.41%，农历同比-4.71%。未来施工进 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.03.27） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：81500-83000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路、用铜企业逢低买入保值操作思路 核心逻辑： 宏观方面，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦德加洛表示，欧央行存款利率或在夏未降至 2%。 供给方面，中国 2025 年 1 月废铜(铜废碎料)进口量为 18.92 万吨,环比减少 13.01%，同 比增加 1.54%。中国 2025 年 2 月废铜(铜废碎料)进口量为 19.34 万吨,环比增长 2.22%,同比上 升 26.98%。云南铜业新增铜金属量 9.18 万吨。西南铜业搬迁项目将阴极铜年产能从 120.6 万吨推升至 152 万吨的规划目标。3 月 26 日，TC 价格跌至-23.3 美元/干吨，炼企冶炼利润 不佳导致部分炼企提前检修。 需求方面， 2025 年 1 月，中国铜线缆出口数量为 10.71 万吨，环比上月下降了 0.28%， 但同比增长10.84%。2月份铜线缆出口数量为7.33万吨，环比下降31.53%，同比下降了10.7%。 安泰科的调研 ...