1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to face a downward risk in the second quarter due to the impact of US tariffs and the entry into the off - season of spot trading, despite the tight supply of copper concentrates in the medium - term, short - term smelting cost support, and the transfer of global inventory to the US [1][2] - For protein meal, the second - quarter Brazilian new soybean exports are large, putting downward pressure on the near - month contracts of soybean meal, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is affected by Trump's attitude. Under the background of trade - war easing, the spread of soybean - rapeseed meal 2610 should be narrowed [4][5] - The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to improved rigid demand and stronger crude - oil cost. In the long term, it is expected to maintain a strong trend with limited supply growth and increasing demand from road projects [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Range** - Intraday: 75,200 - 77,300 [1] - Medium - term: 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of weakening oscillation [1] - **Core Logic** - Macro: Trump's tariff war and related remarks have caused dissatisfaction, and then he proposed to lower tariffs and abandon the idea of firing Powell [1] - Supply: Global copper concentrate supply is expected to be tight, but some mining companies plan to increase production. Some smelters reduce production due to negative processing fees, while domestic copper enterprises increase imports [1] - Demand: The current peak season has stable demand growth, but US tariffs may suppress demand. The off - season starts at the end of the second quarter [1] - Inventory: On April 23, LME copper inventory decreased by 7,450 tons (3.50%) to 205,250 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,728 tons to 44,965 tons [2] Protein Meal - **Price Range** - Intraday: Soybean meal主力[2950,3050] [3] - Medium - term: The spread between near - and far - month contracts of soybean meal narrows [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Short soybean meal 2601 and long rapeseed meal 2601 [3] - **Core Logic** - Trump's trade - war easing remarks had little impact on soybean varieties, while vegetable oils rose. Indonesia and Japan may increase US purchases [4] - Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be large in April. US soybean planting progress is 8% as of April 20. Chinese soybean imports in March were low [4] - Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease, and the ending inventory is raised [5] Petroleum Asphalt - **Price Outlook** - Intraday: Oscillate strongly [7] - Medium - term: Run strongly [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Long asphalt and short high - sulfur fuel oil spread strategy [7] - **Core Logic** - Supply: Local refineries are in loss, but the operating rate and production are increasing. Shandong refinery profit is - 645.37 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 30.7% [6] - Demand: Most areas have good construction conditions. Southern demand is stable, and northern demand is improving. Waterproofing membrane enterprises' operating rate is 32.0% [6] - Inventory: Refinery inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 57.5 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.6 tons to 56.3 tons [6][9] - Cost: Pay attention to Iran - US nuclear negotiations and sanctions. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the market, and the raw - material cost has support [9]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.23） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 2.市场传闻 MLF 投标区间下调了 10BP，叠加保险业协会称当前普通型人身保险产品预 定利率研究值为 2.13%，比一季度下调了 21BP，驱动长期利率中枢下行，有助带动长债收益 率逐步下移。 1.一季度经济数据显示国内基本面平稳向好，经济韧性较强，关税扰动下出口面临压力， 内需提振空间仍大。政策方面，国务院多个会议释放积极政策信号，注重稳预期、稳就业、 稳经济。近期国常会再度明确要加大逆周期调节力度，同时也指出要持续稳定股市，持续推 动房地产市场平稳健康发展。政策方面持有充足的储备，后续关注 4 月中央政治局会议增量 信息指引。 2.经历近期调整后，股市场配置价值进一步抬升，尤其"类平准基金"提振市场信心， 中长期资金加速入市的环境下，A 股长期稳健运行具备更为坚实的基础。最新披露的基金一 季报显示，继 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - There is no explicit report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The current situation in the commodity futures and options market is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each variety. The overall market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather conditions [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The short - term view is stable but weak, and the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. The supply pressure is high in the second quarter due to postponed release of previous fattening and pressure - holding pigs. Consumption is lackluster, and the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options [1][2]. - **Sugar**: The short - term view is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is oscillating and weakening. International factors such as Brazilian weather and Indian production, as well as domestic factors like sales progress and imports, affect the sugar price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term view is to focus on stage rebound opportunities, and the medium - term view is under pressure. OPEC+ policies, Trump's tariff policies, and supply - demand - inventory relationships affect the oil price. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [5][6][7]. - **PVC**: The short - term view is gradually bottom - building, and the medium - term view lacks strong driving force for a sharp rise. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors affect the PVC price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable and improving, with strong economic resilience. Policy signals are positive, and after recent adjustments, the allocation value of the stock market has increased. The short - term view of stock index futures is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is accumulating strength for an upward trend. The short - term view of treasury bond futures is that short - term bonds oscillate narrowly and long - term bonds are slightly weak, while the medium - term view is bullish [1][2][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For copper, the short - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 75,200 - 77,300, and the medium - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 66,000 - 90,000. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and run at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term and fluctuate around the production cost in the medium - term [5][8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Short - term View**: Oscillating and strengthening - **Medium - term View**: Accumulating strength for an upward trend - **Reference Strategy**: Go long on IM2505 at low prices with a light position. Buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options - **Core Logic**: The Q1 economic data shows stable and improving domestic fundamentals. Policy signals are positive. After recent adjustments, the stock market's allocation value has increased, and the performance of domestic AI chip design companies may drive the strength of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Short - term View**: Short - term bonds oscillate narrowly, and long - term bonds are slightly weak - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation purposes and wait and see for trading purposes - **Core Logic**: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain stable during the tax payment period. The issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds is earlier than expected, and attention should be paid to the local adjustment risk of ultra - long bonds [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Short - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 75,200 - 77,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 66,000 - 90,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish trading strategy - **Core Logic**: There are macro uncertainties. In March 2025, copper imports and production increased. Although there are supply - side challenges, production remains stable. Demand shows a mixed picture, and inventory has decreased. The risk of the tariff war has been released to some extent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved [5][6][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Short - term View**: Run weakly within the range of 8,600 - 8,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,300 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased, but the demand decline was greater, and the inventory level was still high [8] - **Polysilicon** - **Short - term View**: Continue to decline within the range of 37,000 - 38,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of polysilicon both decreased, and the inventory was at a high level, indicating obvious oversupply [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Short - term View**: Oscillate and decline within the range of 70,000 - 70,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate around the production cost within the range of 65,000 - 80,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is running at a low level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level within the year [11]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.18） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19500-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有至到期 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 14 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 72.2 万吨，较 上周下降 2.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 84.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位。 2、1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5%和 11.2%。 汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 港进口铁矿石库存总量 14191.45 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.17） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：74600-76000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美国对中国商品关税已经升至 245%。 2、供给方面，智利矿业巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）第一季度铜产量较预期低 2%， 主要因其旗下 Los Pelambres 铜矿受全国性停电事故及设备维护影响。西部矿业 2024 年公司 矿产铜产量 17.75 万吨，计划完成率 112%。其中，玉龙铜矿产量 15.9 万吨，同比+39%。随 着玉龙铜矿一二选厂改扩建项目的达产达效，2025 年公司计划生产矿产铜 16.8 万吨。2024 年西部矿业冶炼铜产量 26.4 万吨，同比+44%，完成计划的 121%，其中青海铜业生产冶炼铜 17.8 万吨，西部铜材生产冶炼铜 8.1 吨。全球铜精矿供需偏紧的格局持续，TC 仍然负值运 行。 3、需求方面，4 月 16 日，广东地区下游企业接货意愿不高，成交有限。华北地区下游 企业总体维持刚需采购为主，成交一般。重庆地区电解铜成 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.16） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策落地后，助力权益市场企稳。中央汇金、全国社保基金、险资等先后 护盘。央行再贷款、金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场支持力度。 国务院国资委支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司加大增持回购力度。多家上市公司发布了 股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放积极信号。 2.美国关税政策影响减弱，不过中美贸易博弈延续。美国商务部正在对进口半导体技术 及相关下游产品进行国家安全调查，芯片和电子产品供应链不会被排除在特朗普的关税计划 之外。短期海外市场不确定性仍高，持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2506、TL2506 配置盘多单持有，交易盘轻仓试多 核心逻辑： 1.资金方面，央行逆回购连续净回笼、MLF 资金错位到期，叠加税期临近等因素，阶段 性抬升流动性压力，存款类机构隔夜、7 天质回购利率继续 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.14） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：蓄力反弹 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策先后出台。中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF 规模和力度，并首次提出 类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布将通过再贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。金融监管总局 上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持力度。全国社会保障基金理 事会近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。强力政策助力下，上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数等大盘权重指数有望延续反弹势头。 2.面对市场剧烈波动，多家上市公司发布了股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放 积极信号。国务院国资委亦表态称，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司主动作为， 不断加大增持回购力度。过去一周，合计有 307 家上市公司发布实施股票回购增持公告，已 经超过 3 月全月数量规模，助力市场企稳反弹。 3.美国加征关税政策引发全球资本市场连锁反应，中美贸易博弈延续，同时美联储票委 暗示或出手稳定市场。短期海外市场不确定性仍高， ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.11） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：19700-20000 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有 核心逻辑： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 7 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 77.5 万吨，较上 周增加 1.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 85.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位，支撑铝价。 2、1—2 月份，汽车产销分别完成 455.3 万辆和 455.2 万辆，同比分别增长 16.2%和 13.1%， 汽车产量增速较 1 月扩大 14.5 个百分点，销量增速扩大 13.7 个百分点。汽车市场表现向好， 利好铝价。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成 ...

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 供给方面，2 月美国再生铜原料出口量为 7.1 万吨，环比下降 0.28%，同比下滑 6.2%，延续收缩态势。国内铜精矿供需偏紧，TC 跌 至-26.25 美元/干吨，炼企冶炼亏损持续。 需求方面，据 SMM 调研，3 月份是漆包线行业的传统旺季，整个 行业的开工率达到旺季水平。3 月份行业综合开工率为 74.37%，环比 增加 18.38 个百分点，同比变化不大。据 SMM 数据显示，3 月铜管企 业开工率为 85.23%，环比增加 14.95 个百分点，同比减少 0.74 个百分 点。2025 年 4 月铜管预计开工率为 85.81%，环比增加 0.58 个百分点， 同比减少 0.72 个百分点。据产业在线数据显示，4 月空调内销排产较 去年同期内销实际增长 9.1%，出口增长 7.5%。2025 年 3 月中国铜箔 企业的开工率 71.82%，环比上升 4.17 个百分点，同比上升 11.38 个百 分点。本轮铜价跌停当天，下游订单积极涌入，现货升水报价。 相关图表 证监许可【2011】1772 号 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F030 ...