策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.18） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19500-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有至到期 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 14 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 72.2 万吨，较 上周下降 2.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 84.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位。 2、1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5%和 11.2%。 汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 港进口铁矿石库存总量 14191.45 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.17） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：74600-76000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美国对中国商品关税已经升至 245%。 2、供给方面，智利矿业巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）第一季度铜产量较预期低 2%， 主要因其旗下 Los Pelambres 铜矿受全国性停电事故及设备维护影响。西部矿业 2024 年公司 矿产铜产量 17.75 万吨，计划完成率 112%。其中，玉龙铜矿产量 15.9 万吨，同比+39%。随 着玉龙铜矿一二选厂改扩建项目的达产达效，2025 年公司计划生产矿产铜 16.8 万吨。2024 年西部矿业冶炼铜产量 26.4 万吨，同比+44%，完成计划的 121%，其中青海铜业生产冶炼铜 17.8 万吨，西部铜材生产冶炼铜 8.1 吨。全球铜精矿供需偏紧的格局持续，TC 仍然负值运 行。 3、需求方面，4 月 16 日，广东地区下游企业接货意愿不高，成交有限。华北地区下游 企业总体维持刚需采购为主，成交一般。重庆地区电解铜成 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.16） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策落地后，助力权益市场企稳。中央汇金、全国社保基金、险资等先后 护盘。央行再贷款、金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场支持力度。 国务院国资委支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司加大增持回购力度。多家上市公司发布了 股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放积极信号。 2.美国关税政策影响减弱，不过中美贸易博弈延续。美国商务部正在对进口半导体技术 及相关下游产品进行国家安全调查，芯片和电子产品供应链不会被排除在特朗普的关税计划 之外。短期海外市场不确定性仍高，持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2506、TL2506 配置盘多单持有，交易盘轻仓试多 核心逻辑： 1.资金方面，央行逆回购连续净回笼、MLF 资金错位到期，叠加税期临近等因素，阶段 性抬升流动性压力，存款类机构隔夜、7 天质回购利率继续 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.14） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：蓄力反弹 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策先后出台。中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF 规模和力度，并首次提出 类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布将通过再贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。金融监管总局 上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持力度。全国社会保障基金理 事会近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。强力政策助力下，上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数等大盘权重指数有望延续反弹势头。 2.面对市场剧烈波动，多家上市公司发布了股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放 积极信号。国务院国资委亦表态称，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司主动作为， 不断加大增持回购力度。过去一周，合计有 307 家上市公司发布实施股票回购增持公告，已 经超过 3 月全月数量规模，助力市场企稳反弹。 3.美国加征关税政策引发全球资本市场连锁反应，中美贸易博弈延续，同时美联储票委 暗示或出手稳定市场。短期海外市场不确定性仍高， ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.11） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：19700-20000 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有 核心逻辑： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 7 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 77.5 万吨，较上 周增加 1.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 85.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位，支撑铝价。 2、1—2 月份，汽车产销分别完成 455.3 万辆和 455.2 万辆，同比分别增长 16.2%和 13.1%， 汽车产量增速较 1 月扩大 14.5 个百分点，销量增速扩大 13.7 个百分点。汽车市场表现向好， 利好铝价。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成 ...

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 供给方面，2 月美国再生铜原料出口量为 7.1 万吨，环比下降 0.28%，同比下滑 6.2%，延续收缩态势。国内铜精矿供需偏紧，TC 跌 至-26.25 美元/干吨，炼企冶炼亏损持续。 需求方面，据 SMM 调研，3 月份是漆包线行业的传统旺季，整个 行业的开工率达到旺季水平。3 月份行业综合开工率为 74.37%，环比 增加 18.38 个百分点，同比变化不大。据 SMM 数据显示，3 月铜管企 业开工率为 85.23%，环比增加 14.95 个百分点，同比减少 0.74 个百分 点。2025 年 4 月铜管预计开工率为 85.81%，环比增加 0.58 个百分点， 同比减少 0.72 个百分点。据产业在线数据显示，4 月空调内销排产较 去年同期内销实际增长 9.1%，出口增长 7.5%。2025 年 3 月中国铜箔 企业的开工率 71.82%，环比上升 4.17 个百分点，同比上升 11.38 个百 分点。本轮铜价跌停当天，下游订单积极涌入，现货升水报价。 相关图表 证监许可【2011】1772 号 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F030 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：71000-73000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：用铜企业逢低买入保值操作思路，铜价止跌后考虑做空基差套利策略。 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美国对华征收关税已经超过 100%，作为反制措施，中国上调美国商品进 口关税至 84%。关税战仍在发酵对金融市场的稳定性造成负面影响。 2、供给方面，印尼政府关于提高铜矿企业特许使用费的规定将于 4 月第二周执行。洛 阳钼业 2025 年第一季度运营报告显示，其铜产量同比大幅增长 15.65%，达到 17.06 万吨。 根据该公司设定的 2025 年度产量目标（60 万至 66 万吨），仅第一季度就已完成全年目标 下限的近三成。 3、需求方面，国家电网一季度加快电网投资建设，推进大规模设备更新改造，截至 3 月底该公司电网投资同比增长 27.7%，创一季度历史新高。国家电网公司预计 2025 年将进 一步加大投资力度，全年电网投资有望首次超过 6500 亿元。2025 年，南方电网的固定资产 投资预计达 1750 亿元，再创 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: Indexes are differentiated, with large - cap stocks continuing to rebound in the short - term and in a wide - range shock in the medium - term. For bonds, there is a short - term shock adjustment and long - term bonds continue to correct, but are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Steel prices are gradually falling in the short - term and under pressure in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Indexes are differentiated, and large - cap stocks continue to rebound [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range shock, index differentiation [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold a long IH2504 and short IM2504 hedging portfolio, and buy IO2504 - C - 3750 call options [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic market - stabilizing policies are introduced, which helps large - cap indexes rebound. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy causes uncertainty and overseas risk - asset selling pressure disturbs the domestic market [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Shock adjustment, long - term bonds continue to correct [2]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation, and take profit for trading positions [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term repo rates of deposit - taking institutions rise slightly, and medium - and long - term funds stop falling. Domestic market - stabilizing policies lead to profit - taking pressure on bonds. The "equal - tariff" policy increases uncertainty, and funds flow to safe - haven assets, raising expectations of "loose money" [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Intraday View**: Steel prices gradually fall [4]. - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450 and buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [6]. - **Core Logic**: Raw material inventory pressure is high, which may increase steel supply. Downstream demand is weak, and construction project funds are in short supply, resulting in slow construction progress and weak steel consumption. Before the introduction of domestic fiscal stimulus policies, steel prices may continue to fall [4][5].

股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.07） 金融期货和期权 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：多 IH2504 空 IM2504 对冲组合短期操作，指数低位买入 IO2504-C-3750 看 涨期权 核心逻辑： 1、美国加征关税政策引发全球资本市场连锁反应，海外股市大幅下跌，美国三大指数 均接近双位数跌幅，欧洲股市普遍跌幅超过 5%，亚太市场弱势分化。海外风险资产抛压情 绪预计拖累国内市场，短期 A 股大概率进入补跌阶段。 2、国内政策对冲预期升温。基本面来看，3 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.5%，连续第二个月 回升，符合季节性规律，但仍明显低于去年同期水平。 政策端，国有四大行补充核心一级 资本方案正式落地，合计募资 5200 亿元，其中财政部通过发行 5000 亿元特别国债给予支持； 两办发布《关于完善价格治理机制的意见》，加快能源、公用事业、农业、公共服务、公共 数据等领域价格市场化改革。外部关税风险扰动下，国内市场对于货币政策宽松等政策对冲 预期升温，利于市场情绪企稳反弹。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 国债期货 品种：TS ...

Group 1: Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Copper) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,000 - 81,000 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term. It is recommended to adopt an operation idea of weakening in the shock and a hedging operation idea of buying on dips for copper - using enterprises [1] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The market is closely watching the upcoming US tariff policy, which is expected to have a negative impact on the financial market [1] - **Supply**: India's refined copper production in the 2024 - 25 fiscal year increased by 7.1% to 497,000 tons. In Q1, Western Mining's mine production of copper increased by 13% year - on - year, and smelting production increased by 57%. Chile's copper production in February 2025 decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons. Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to produce 433,000 tons of refined copper in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year [1] - **Demand**: After the copper price fell below 80,000, the consumption of refined copper rods improved month - on - month, but most of the orders were backlogs. The actual new consumption was less optimistic than expected. In March, the order volume of brass rod enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate in March was 73.6%, up 12.71 percentage points month - on - month and 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [2] - **Inventory**: On April 2, the copper warehouse receipts on the SHFE decreased by 5,624 tons to 130,379 tons [2] - **Outlook**: The tight supply of global copper concentrates and scrap copper boosts the copper price, but high prices have a negative impact on downstream consumption [2] Group 2: Breeding, Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector (Protein Meal) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The protein meal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short - term. In the medium - term, soybean meal is stronger in the far - term and weaker in the near - term, and it will be below 3,000 before the expiration of 2505. It is recommended to short soybean meal 2505 on rallies [3] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Policy and Market**: The USDA's planting area intention report on soybeans met expectations, and the US soybean futures slightly declined but then rose due to a small increase in US soybean oil. There were tariff changes in early March, and the "reciprocal tariff" had no official announcement as of April 2 [3] - **International Soybean**: Brazil's new - crop soybeans are about to be launched. Conab said 81.4% had been harvested as of the 29th, compared with 71% last year. Multiple institutions estimated Brazil's output to be between 166 million and 171 million tons. ANEC expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to increase slightly to 15.56 million tons. The domestic trade data showed that the total arrival in April would exceed 10 million tons. The USDA's report showed that US farmers' soybean planting area this year was about 83.5 million acres, and the corn planting area was 95.32 million acres, a 5% year - on - year increase [4] - **Rapeseed**: The recent rapeseed inventory is still sufficient. Statistics Canada estimated that the rapeseed planting area in 2025 would be 21.646 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the 25/26 ending inventory forecast from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4] - **Outlook**: If the new US tariff is implemented on April 2, agricultural product prices may fluctuate widely. It is still recommended to short near - term soybean meal contracts on rallies after April when South American soybeans arrive in China. Going long on palm oil and short on soybean meal is also an option [5] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals Sector (Petroleum Asphalt) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The asphalt is expected to have weak fluctuations in the short - term and turn from weak to strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to short asphalt and long crude oil spreads [6] - **Summary by Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the loss of local refineries in asphalt production has decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has slightly declined. As of March 28, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. It is expected that the asphalt production plan in April will decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease [6] - **Demand**: The rigid demand for asphalt has improved steadily. The warming temperatures in Shandong and Central China have led to the start of road terminal projects. The previous continuous rise in international oil prices has also driven the release of some speculative demand. However, the operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has shown a weakening trend. As of March 28, the domestic waterproofing membrane enterprise operating rate was 28.0%, a 4.0 - percentage - point week - on - week decline and a 2 - percentage - point decline from the same period last year [7] - **Inventory**: Due to the quantity - price discount policies of some refineries, downstream traders have stocked up, resulting in a decrease in refinery inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of April 1, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 538,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons week - on - week [7] - **Cost**: Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on the purchase of Iranian and Russian oil and the upcoming reciprocal tariff policy have led to short - term range - bound fluctuations in oil prices. In the long - term, the supply increase expectation is strengthening. The oil price may have a pulse - type increase if geopolitical risks escalate, but the increase space is expected to be limited. The oil price center will move down in the summer [7] - **Outlook**: In the near term, the asphalt fundamentals are still weak, and the cost has been consolidating after continuous increases. In the long term, due to the lack of guarantee for refinery processing profits, the asphalt supply increase is expected to be limited. The asphalt market may have a small peak season from April to May, and the asphalt crack spread is expected to be weak first and then strong [8]