策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.09） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 黑色及建材板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19400-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有 核心逻辑： ①社会库存方面，截至 5 月 6 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 63.7 万吨，较上周增加 2.40 万吨。去年同期库存为 77.6 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 最低位。库存持续持续处于低位，利好铝价。 ②1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5% 和 11.2%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 座港口进口铁矿库存 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,100 - 78,700 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term, with a recommended shock operation strategy. The supply is tightening, and demand pre - placement supports prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [1][2]. - For protein meal, considering the easing of the trade war, soybean meal is regarded as bearish in the short - term, with a far - strong and near - weak pattern in the medium - term. Recommended strategies include buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - Petroleum asphalt is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and under pressure in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is a 77,100 - 78,700 range fluctuation; medium - term view is a 66,000 - 90,000 range fluctuation. Recommended strategy is shock operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The Fed will announce the interest rate decision on May 8 at 2:00 am [1]. - **Supply**: Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in April dropped to over - one - year lows. Aurubis will start an $800 million US scrap copper smelter in 2025. Altonorte smelter may extend maintenance, affecting South American electrolytic copper production [1]. - **Demand**: In April 2025, the operating rate of copper wire enterprises was 81.31%, up 7.71 percentage points month - on - month and 7.89 percentage points year - on - year. After the increase in copper prices, trading activity in some regions declined [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 7, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 193,975 tons, and SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,381 tons to 21,541 tons [2]. - **Outlook**: Demand pre - placement supports copper prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [2]. Protein Meal - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is bearish on soybean meal due to trade war easing; medium - term view is far - strong and near - weak for soybean meal. Recommended strategies are buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - **Core Logic**: - **Trade War**: There are signs of trade war easing, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting partial cancellation of tariffs on China. Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks are rumored to be held in Switzerland from May 9 - 12 [3]. - **International Soybeans**: As of April 30, 88% of soybeans in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested. StoneX slightly raised Brazil's soybean production to 168 million tons. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, higher than the five - year average of 23%. China's second - quarter Brazilian soybean arrivals are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons [4]. - **Rapeseed**: After the holiday, the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was flat compared to before the holiday. Canada's 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.64 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Canada's 25/26 ending inventory forecast was raised from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, there is a large supply of new Brazilian soybeans and short - term trade war easing. It is recommended to trade short - term volatility [5]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly; medium - term view is under pressure. Recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: Local refineries' asphalt production losses decreased this week, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate rose slightly to 28.8% as of May 6. The weekly asphalt production was 488,000 tons as of May 6, an increase of 7,000 tons. Production is expected to continue to increase [7]. - **Demand**: Rain in the south affects road construction, but demand in other regions is expected to improve. Overall, the May demand outlook is positive. Both factory and social inventories have declined [7]. - **Cost**: Kazakhstan's planned production cuts and limited growth in the US Permian Basin support oil prices, but Trump's low - oil - price policy limits the upside. The discount of diluted asphalt has risen to $5.3 per barrel [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, improved demand and cost support lead to an oscillating - strong trend. In the long - term, increased supply and uncertain demand may put pressure on prices if oil prices decline [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, with IC and IM being relatively stronger. The medium - term view is bullish. The core logic includes the expected marginal improvement in Sino - US trade relations, the implementation of domestic positive policies, and a healthy chip structure in the AI industry chain [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday and medium - term views are high - level oscillations, and there is a need to be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds. The core logic is that the fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, and loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are also risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [3][4]. - **Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials)**: The intraday view is a gradual decline in steel prices, and the medium - term view is that steel prices will be under pressure. The core logic is the large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and the general downstream demand for steel [5]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, IC and IM are relatively stronger [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put option combinations [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, domestic positive policies are being implemented, and the AI industry chain has a healthy chip structure [1][2] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [3] - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillations, be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds [3] - **Medium - term View**: High - level oscillations [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cautiously operate the long TF2506 and short TL2506 hedging combination [3] - **Core Logic**: The fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [4] Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - **Intraday View**: Gradual decline in steel prices [5] - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices will be under pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450, hold long rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [5] - **Core Logic**: Large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and general downstream demand for steel [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.30） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强，IM、IC 相对强势 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 中期观点：高位震荡 参考策略：观望 1.中央政治局会议强调底线思维 财政政策重点在于存量落地。货币政策上提到将 创设新的工具。会议明确了决策层坚决维护资本市场稳定的决心，后续权益市场整体下行风 险可控，叠加业绩披露期结束后进入真空期，在经济整体稳定、流动性充裕背景下，市场风 险偏好有望持续提升。 2.产业方面，中央政治局就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习，对高端芯 片、基础软件、算力基建、数据资源等构建自主可控的人工智能基础软硬件系统做出部署， 从政策角度来看，继续重点关注科技自主可控，国产替代，算力、数据要素等产业体系，IC、 IM 或保持相对强势。 3.中美贸易博弈延续，短期不确定性依然较高，风险资产抛压情绪持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 中期观点：蓄力上涨 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日 ...

能源化工丨日报 投资咨询资格证号： 2025 年 04 月 29 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 Z0017388 贸易前景不确定，油价下挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下跌 周一(4 月 28 日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油 2025 年 6 月期货结算价每桶 62.05 美元，比前一交易日下跌 0.97 美元，跌 幅 1.54%，交易区间 61.48-63.92 美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油 2025 年 6 月期货结算价每桶 65.86 美元，比前一交易日下跌 1.01 美元， 跌幅 1.51%，交易区间 65.25-67.57 美元。 二、OPEC+5 月继续增产 OPEC+5 月份继续维持增产政策，增产 41.1 万桶/日，超出市场预 期。多个成员国在 OPEC+会议上提议 6 月份提升增产速度。此外，哈 萨克斯坦可能不会弥补其超额减产计划。 三、石油供应过剩 100 万桶/日 尽管 2025 年初石油市场基本面大幅改善，但巴克莱银行目前预 测今年石油市场日均将供应过剩 100 万桶，2026 年日均将供应过 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.28） 日内观点：震荡偏强，IM 相对强势 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 1.中央政治局会议强调底线思维 财政政策重点在于存量落地。货币政策上提到将创设 新的工具。会议稳定资本市场的表态结合 4 月中上旬一系列坚决的救市举措，明确了决策层 坚决维护资本市场稳定的决心，后续权益市场整体下行风险可控，叠加后续随着业绩披露期 结束，再度进入业绩真空期，以及在经济整体稳定，流动性充裕背景下，市场风险偏好有望 持续提升。 2.产业方面，中央政治局就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习，对高端芯 片、基础软件、算力基建、数据资源等构建自主可控的人工智能基础软硬件系统做出部署， 从政策角度来看，继续重点关注科技自主可控，国产替代，算力、数据要素等产业体系，IC、 IM 或保持相对强势。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been notable developments in the domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets, with key events in soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, and palm oil series [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week ending April 20, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.76% to 140,500 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Paraná state in Brazil is expected to produce 21.11 million tons of soybeans, higher than last month's estimate. As of April 24, 80% of the 2024/25 soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybeans shrank to 277,000 tons, with cumulative sales of 47.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.57 million tons [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybean meal slightly increased to 170,900 tons, and the net weekly export of 2024/25 US soybean oil increased by 12,400 tons [2]. - A case being heard by Brazil's Supreme Court may provide an opportunity to improve the "soybean ban" implemented in 2008, which will impact the global soybean supply chain [3]. 3.2 Palm Oil Series - In March, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.05 million tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous month. Exports to China dropped to 230,035 tons, a 19.1% decrease from February. India's palm oil imports in Q1 2025 decreased by nearly 40% to 1.07 million tons compared to the same period last year [4]. 3.3 Margin Adjustment during May Day Holiday - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the margin and price limit for multiple futures varieties during the May Day holiday, and then return to the original standards after the holiday [5]. 3.4 Other Data Charts - There are data charts related to spreads between different meal varieties, spreads across different periods of the same meal variety, price - to - price ratios of the same meal and oil varieties, and spreads between different oil varieties [6][7][9][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday (April 24), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.79 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.84% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.99 - $63.31. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.55 per barrel, up $0.43 or 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.80 - $67.02 [1]. - On April 22 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tycoon Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his business network, which is responsible for shipping hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil to overseas markets [2]. - The latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that in the week ending April 19, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to about 222,000, in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and remained flat compared with the previous period, close to the lowest level in a year, indicating the robustness of the US labor market despite inflationary pressures [3]. - Looking ahead, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations and the reduction of heavy oil supply should be monitored. Low - price consolidation will attract some buying interest, and oil prices may experience a phased increase, but the upside is limited. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the oil market on both the supply and demand sides. Oil prices will fluctuate significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to uncertain tariff policies and sanctions. If trade frictions escalate during the approaching summer oil consumption peak season, oil prices may still decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On April 24, 2025, WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 settled at $62.79 per barrel, up 0.84%, and Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 settled at $66.55 per barrel, up 0.65% [1]. Sanctions - On April 22, the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian LPG tycoon and his business network, which shipped hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil overseas [2]. Labor Market - In the week ending April 19, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US increased by 6,000 to about 222,000, showing the robustness of the US labor market [3]. Outlook - Oil prices may rise in phases, but the upside is limited. Second - quarter oil prices will be volatile, and there is a risk of decline if trade frictions escalate [4].