Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to have a small increase in the short - term and remain at a high level in the medium - term due to low inventory and a positive automotive market [1]. - Steel prices are expected to decline gradually in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term because of high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, small increase with a running range of 19800 - 20100; medium - term, high - level operation in the range of 19500 - 21500 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2505 - P - 19500 and hold until maturity [1]. - **Core Logic**: As of April 21, 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.2 million tons, down 1.60 million tons from last week and lower than the 80.6 million tons of the same period last year, at a 5 - year low. From January to March, automobile production and sales increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Steel) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, gradual decline; medium - term, under pressure [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold call option RB2510 - C - 3450 of rebar and hold the purchased in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 of rebar [2]. - **Core Logic**: - **Raw Material Inventory**: Total 45 - port iron ore inventory this week was 14181.41 million tons, down 10.04 million tons week - on - week. Low - grade tradable port iron ore inventory is at a 5 - year high, and 6000 million tons of iron ore from Guinea's Simandou iron ore mining area may enter the market this year. Sample mine coking coal inventory was 333.34 million tons, down 0.65% week - on - week and up 7.05% year - on - year. Coal washing plant coking coal inventory was 181.33 million tons, down 6.03% week - on - week and down 2.45% year - on - year, still at a 5 - year high [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall steel downstream demand is average. Building material demand drags down the consumption of five major steel products, which is weaker than in previous years. Construction project funds are in short supply, and construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. This week, rebar consumption was 259.94 million tons, down 5.07% week - on - week and 9.74% year - on - year. Consumption of five major steel products was 926.25 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week and 3.30% year - on - year. The impact of US tariff hikes on global consumption has not fully materialized, and relevant downstream industry demand support policies are yet to be introduced [4].

策略早餐 4 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.24） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：75200-77300 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡偏弱操作思路 核心逻辑： 宏观方面，特朗普发动的关税战及解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的言论引发美国及全球的不满， 在总体职位面临动摇的情况下，特朗普表示将降低关税税率及放弃解雇鲍威尔的说法。 供给方面，由于智利较多矿山产量出现下降，叠加此前科布雷铜矿停产，全球铜精矿供 需偏紧预期强烈。但实际上仍有较多矿企公布产量预增。由于加工费跌至负值，部分炼企选 择检修减产，国内炼企 主要通过增加冷料的进口以提高精炼铜的产量。另外，国内铜企通 过增加精炼铜的进口量以保证供给量。 需求方面，目前铜市正值购销旺季，新能源汽车行业、空调行业、 电力行业用铜量均 稳增。并且受到特朗普对进口铜加征关税的影响，美国境内用铜企业在关税落地前提前备库 铜，需求前置，加剧全球铜市供需偏紧。但美国对全球进口汽车加征关税也将打压全球汽车 行业用铜需求。二季度末，铜市进入购销淡季。 库存方面，4 月 23 日，LME 的铜库存减少 7,450 吨或 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.23） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 2.市场传闻 MLF 投标区间下调了 10BP，叠加保险业协会称当前普通型人身保险产品预 定利率研究值为 2.13%，比一季度下调了 21BP，驱动长期利率中枢下行，有助带动长债收益 率逐步下移。 1.一季度经济数据显示国内基本面平稳向好，经济韧性较强，关税扰动下出口面临压力， 内需提振空间仍大。政策方面，国务院多个会议释放积极政策信号，注重稳预期、稳就业、 稳经济。近期国常会再度明确要加大逆周期调节力度，同时也指出要持续稳定股市，持续推 动房地产市场平稳健康发展。政策方面持有充足的储备，后续关注 4 月中央政治局会议增量 信息指引。 2.经历近期调整后，股市场配置价值进一步抬升，尤其"类平准基金"提振市场信心， 中长期资金加速入市的环境下，A 股长期稳健运行具备更为坚实的基础。最新披露的基金一 季报显示，继 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.22） 商品期货和期权 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：稳中偏弱 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：卖出虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，短期来看，由于一季度标肥价差较大，养殖端压栏及二育的情况增多， 而大猪集中抛售的情况暂未出现，供应释放的压力持续后移，二季度面临较大的供应压力。 长期来看，对于后续的生猪供应，从产能角度推算，2024 年 10 月份至 2025 年 3 月份新生 仔猪数量比上年同期增长 7%，4-9 月份生猪出栏量将明显增多，预计 2025 年 4-9 月生猪供 应将呈现持续增长的态势，供应压力增大，猪价不容乐观，需关注生猪的出栏节奏。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考策略：暂时观望 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 能 化 板 块 品种：原油 核心逻辑： 1、供应端，OPEC+公布 5 月份超额增产是油价在 4 月初宽幅下跌的主要因素之一，不 过 OPEC+的月度减产补偿计划将部分抵消增产压力。二季度来看，供应端将为油价带来一 定的支撑因素：第一，特朗普政府对于购买伊朗、委内瑞拉石油及天然气征收二级 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable and improving, with strong economic resilience. Policy signals are positive, and after recent adjustments, the allocation value of the stock market has increased. The short - term view of stock index futures is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is accumulating strength for an upward trend. The short - term view of treasury bond futures is that short - term bonds oscillate narrowly and long - term bonds are slightly weak, while the medium - term view is bullish [1][2][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For copper, the short - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 75,200 - 77,300, and the medium - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 66,000 - 90,000. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and run at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term and fluctuate around the production cost in the medium - term [5][8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Short - term View**: Oscillating and strengthening - **Medium - term View**: Accumulating strength for an upward trend - **Reference Strategy**: Go long on IM2505 at low prices with a light position. Buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options - **Core Logic**: The Q1 economic data shows stable and improving domestic fundamentals. Policy signals are positive. After recent adjustments, the stock market's allocation value has increased, and the performance of domestic AI chip design companies may drive the strength of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Short - term View**: Short - term bonds oscillate narrowly, and long - term bonds are slightly weak - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation purposes and wait and see for trading purposes - **Core Logic**: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain stable during the tax payment period. The issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds is earlier than expected, and attention should be paid to the local adjustment risk of ultra - long bonds [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Short - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 75,200 - 77,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 66,000 - 90,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish trading strategy - **Core Logic**: There are macro uncertainties. In March 2025, copper imports and production increased. Although there are supply - side challenges, production remains stable. Demand shows a mixed picture, and inventory has decreased. The risk of the tariff war has been released to some extent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved [5][6][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Short - term View**: Run weakly within the range of 8,600 - 8,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,300 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased, but the demand decline was greater, and the inventory level was still high [8] - **Polysilicon** - **Short - term View**: Continue to decline within the range of 37,000 - 38,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of polysilicon both decreased, and the inventory was at a high level, indicating obvious oversupply [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Short - term View**: Oscillate and decline within the range of 70,000 - 70,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate around the production cost within the range of 65,000 - 80,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is running at a low level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level within the year [11]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.18） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19500-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有至到期 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 14 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 72.2 万吨，较 上周下降 2.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 84.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位。 2、1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5%和 11.2%。 汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 港进口铁矿石库存总量 14191.45 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.17） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：74600-76000 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美国对中国商品关税已经升至 245%。 2、供给方面，智利矿业巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）第一季度铜产量较预期低 2%， 主要因其旗下 Los Pelambres 铜矿受全国性停电事故及设备维护影响。西部矿业 2024 年公司 矿产铜产量 17.75 万吨，计划完成率 112%。其中，玉龙铜矿产量 15.9 万吨，同比+39%。随 着玉龙铜矿一二选厂改扩建项目的达产达效，2025 年公司计划生产矿产铜 16.8 万吨。2024 年西部矿业冶炼铜产量 26.4 万吨，同比+44%，完成计划的 121%，其中青海铜业生产冶炼铜 17.8 万吨，西部铜材生产冶炼铜 8.1 吨。全球铜精矿供需偏紧的格局持续，TC 仍然负值运 行。 3、需求方面，4 月 16 日，广东地区下游企业接货意愿不高，成交有限。华北地区下游 企业总体维持刚需采购为主，成交一般。重庆地区电解铜成 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.16） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策落地后，助力权益市场企稳。中央汇金、全国社保基金、险资等先后 护盘。央行再贷款、金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场支持力度。 国务院国资委支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司加大增持回购力度。多家上市公司发布了 股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放积极信号。 2.美国关税政策影响减弱，不过中美贸易博弈延续。美国商务部正在对进口半导体技术 及相关下游产品进行国家安全调查，芯片和电子产品供应链不会被排除在特朗普的关税计划 之外。短期海外市场不确定性仍高，持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2506、TL2506 配置盘多单持有，交易盘轻仓试多 核心逻辑： 1.资金方面，央行逆回购连续净回笼、MLF 资金错位到期，叠加税期临近等因素，阶段 性抬升流动性压力，存款类机构隔夜、7 天质回购利率继续 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.14） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：蓄力反弹 参考策略：持有买入 IO2504-C-3750 看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.国内稳市场政策先后出台。中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF 规模和力度，并首次提出 类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布将通过再贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。金融监管总局 上调保险公司权益投资比例，加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持力度。全国社会保障基金理 事会近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。强力政策助力下，上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数等大盘权重指数有望延续反弹势头。 2.面对市场剧烈波动，多家上市公司发布了股东增持、股份回购等计划公告，连续释放 积极信号。国务院国资委亦表态称，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股上市公司主动作为， 不断加大增持回购力度。过去一周，合计有 307 家上市公司发布实施股票回购增持公告，已 经超过 3 月全月数量规模，助力市场企稳反弹。 3.美国加征关税政策引发全球资本市场连锁反应，中美贸易博弈延续，同时美联储票委 暗示或出手稳定市场。短期海外市场不确定性仍高， ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.11） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：19700-20000 策略早餐 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有 核心逻辑： 1、社会库存方面，截至 4 月 7 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 77.5 万吨，较上 周增加 1.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 85.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期的最低位，支撑铝价。 2、1—2 月份，汽车产销分别完成 455.3 万辆和 455.2 万辆，同比分别增长 16.2%和 13.1%， 汽车产量增速较 1 月扩大 14.5 个百分点，销量增速扩大 13.7 个百分点。汽车市场表现向好， 利好铝价。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成 ...