能源化工丨日报 投资咨询资格证号： 2025 年 04 月 29 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 Z0017388 贸易前景不确定，油价下挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下跌 周一(4 月 28 日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油 2025 年 6 月期货结算价每桶 62.05 美元，比前一交易日下跌 0.97 美元，跌 幅 1.54%，交易区间 61.48-63.92 美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油 2025 年 6 月期货结算价每桶 65.86 美元，比前一交易日下跌 1.01 美元， 跌幅 1.51%，交易区间 65.25-67.57 美元。 二、OPEC+5 月继续增产 OPEC+5 月份继续维持增产政策，增产 41.1 万桶/日，超出市场预 期。多个成员国在 OPEC+会议上提议 6 月份提升增产速度。此外，哈 萨克斯坦可能不会弥补其超额减产计划。 三、石油供应过剩 100 万桶/日 尽管 2025 年初石油市场基本面大幅改善，但巴克莱银行目前预 测今年石油市场日均将供应过剩 100 万桶，2026 年日均将供应过 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options** - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is a sideways - up trend with IM being relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a build - up for an upward movement. The core logic includes the government's determination to stabilize the capital market and the focus on technology - related industries [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday view is a narrow - range sideways movement with caution on long - bond corrections, and the medium - term view is a high - level sideways movement. The core logic involves the adjustment of policy emphasis and the movement of interest rates [2][4]. - **Commodity Futures and Options** - **Copper**: The intraday view is a price range between 76,500 and 78,200, and the medium - term view is a range between 66,000 and 90,000. The market is supported by supply - demand tightness but suppressed by the dollar's rebound [5][6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 8,700 - 8,900, and the medium - term view is a downward - pressured movement in the range of 8,500 - 9,300 due to supply surplus [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 38,000 - 38,500, and the medium - term view is a low - level movement in the range of 35,000 - 40,000 because of supply surplus [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 67,800 - 68,300, and the medium - term view is a movement around the production cost in the range of 65,000 - 75,000, affected by low spot prices, high supply, and high inventory [12][13]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Close out long positions of T2506 and TL2506 trading accounts [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Supply**: Codelco's Q1 output was 296,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, aiming for 1.37 - 1.4 billion tons this year. Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 output was 170,600 tons, up 15.65% year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: In March, auto production and sales increased significantly, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also had high growth rates. The Q1 power grid investment was 95.6 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Inventory**: On April 25, LME copper inventory increased by 25 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and inventory decreased [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a sideways trading approach [7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's industrial silicon output was 342,200 tons, down 6.57% year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the social inventory was 611,000 tons, still at a high level [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures [9]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand**: In March, China's silicon wafer output was 50.76GW, down 30.44% year - on - year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of April 20, the social inventory was 251,000 tons, indicating obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of PS2506 - C - 47000 [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: On April 25, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped to 69,700 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - year low [13]. - **Supply**: In March 2025, the production capacity was 7,285 tons, up 93% year - on - year. In February 2025, battery - grade and industrial - grade production also increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the total inventory was 90,070 tons, at a high level within the year [13]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of LC2507 - C - 83000 [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been notable developments in the domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets, with key events in soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, and palm oil series [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week ending April 20, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.76% to 140,500 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Paraná state in Brazil is expected to produce 21.11 million tons of soybeans, higher than last month's estimate. As of April 24, 80% of the 2024/25 soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybeans shrank to 277,000 tons, with cumulative sales of 47.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.57 million tons [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybean meal slightly increased to 170,900 tons, and the net weekly export of 2024/25 US soybean oil increased by 12,400 tons [2]. - A case being heard by Brazil's Supreme Court may provide an opportunity to improve the "soybean ban" implemented in 2008, which will impact the global soybean supply chain [3]. 3.2 Palm Oil Series - In March, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.05 million tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous month. Exports to China dropped to 230,035 tons, a 19.1% decrease from February. India's palm oil imports in Q1 2025 decreased by nearly 40% to 1.07 million tons compared to the same period last year [4]. 3.3 Margin Adjustment during May Day Holiday - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the margin and price limit for multiple futures varieties during the May Day holiday, and then return to the original standards after the holiday [5]. 3.4 Other Data Charts - There are data charts related to spreads between different meal varieties, spreads across different periods of the same meal variety, price - to - price ratios of the same meal and oil varieties, and spreads between different oil varieties [6][7][9][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday (April 24), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.79 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.84% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.99 - $63.31. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.55 per barrel, up $0.43 or 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.80 - $67.02 [1]. - On April 22 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tycoon Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his business network, which is responsible for shipping hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil to overseas markets [2]. - The latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that in the week ending April 19, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to about 222,000, in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and remained flat compared with the previous period, close to the lowest level in a year, indicating the robustness of the US labor market despite inflationary pressures [3]. - Looking ahead, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations and the reduction of heavy oil supply should be monitored. Low - price consolidation will attract some buying interest, and oil prices may experience a phased increase, but the upside is limited. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the oil market on both the supply and demand sides. Oil prices will fluctuate significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to uncertain tariff policies and sanctions. If trade frictions escalate during the approaching summer oil consumption peak season, oil prices may still decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On April 24, 2025, WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 settled at $62.79 per barrel, up 0.84%, and Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 settled at $66.55 per barrel, up 0.65% [1]. Sanctions - On April 22, the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian LPG tycoon and his business network, which shipped hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil overseas [2]. Labor Market - In the week ending April 19, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US increased by 6,000 to about 222,000, showing the robustness of the US labor market [3]. Outlook - Oil prices may rise in phases, but the upside is limited. Second - quarter oil prices will be volatile, and there is a risk of decline if trade frictions escalate [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to have a small increase in the short - term and remain at a high level in the medium - term due to low inventory and a positive automotive market [1]. - Steel prices are expected to decline gradually in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term because of high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, small increase with a running range of 19800 - 20100; medium - term, high - level operation in the range of 19500 - 21500 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2505 - P - 19500 and hold until maturity [1]. - **Core Logic**: As of April 21, 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.2 million tons, down 1.60 million tons from last week and lower than the 80.6 million tons of the same period last year, at a 5 - year low. From January to March, automobile production and sales increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Steel) - **Price Outlook**: Short - term, gradual decline; medium - term, under pressure [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold call option RB2510 - C - 3450 of rebar and hold the purchased in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 of rebar [2]. - **Core Logic**: - **Raw Material Inventory**: Total 45 - port iron ore inventory this week was 14181.41 million tons, down 10.04 million tons week - on - week. Low - grade tradable port iron ore inventory is at a 5 - year high, and 6000 million tons of iron ore from Guinea's Simandou iron ore mining area may enter the market this year. Sample mine coking coal inventory was 333.34 million tons, down 0.65% week - on - week and up 7.05% year - on - year. Coal washing plant coking coal inventory was 181.33 million tons, down 6.03% week - on - week and down 2.45% year - on - year, still at a 5 - year high [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall steel downstream demand is average. Building material demand drags down the consumption of five major steel products, which is weaker than in previous years. Construction project funds are in short supply, and construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. This week, rebar consumption was 259.94 million tons, down 5.07% week - on - week and 9.74% year - on - year. Consumption of five major steel products was 926.25 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week and 3.30% year - on - year. The impact of US tariff hikes on global consumption has not fully materialized, and relevant downstream industry demand support policies are yet to be introduced [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to face a downward risk in the second quarter due to the impact of US tariffs and the entry into the off - season of spot trading, despite the tight supply of copper concentrates in the medium - term, short - term smelting cost support, and the transfer of global inventory to the US [1][2] - For protein meal, the second - quarter Brazilian new soybean exports are large, putting downward pressure on the near - month contracts of soybean meal, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is affected by Trump's attitude. Under the background of trade - war easing, the spread of soybean - rapeseed meal 2610 should be narrowed [4][5] - The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to improved rigid demand and stronger crude - oil cost. In the long term, it is expected to maintain a strong trend with limited supply growth and increasing demand from road projects [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Range** - Intraday: 75,200 - 77,300 [1] - Medium - term: 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of weakening oscillation [1] - **Core Logic** - Macro: Trump's tariff war and related remarks have caused dissatisfaction, and then he proposed to lower tariffs and abandon the idea of firing Powell [1] - Supply: Global copper concentrate supply is expected to be tight, but some mining companies plan to increase production. Some smelters reduce production due to negative processing fees, while domestic copper enterprises increase imports [1] - Demand: The current peak season has stable demand growth, but US tariffs may suppress demand. The off - season starts at the end of the second quarter [1] - Inventory: On April 23, LME copper inventory decreased by 7,450 tons (3.50%) to 205,250 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,728 tons to 44,965 tons [2] Protein Meal - **Price Range** - Intraday: Soybean meal主力[2950,3050] [3] - Medium - term: The spread between near - and far - month contracts of soybean meal narrows [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Short soybean meal 2601 and long rapeseed meal 2601 [3] - **Core Logic** - Trump's trade - war easing remarks had little impact on soybean varieties, while vegetable oils rose. Indonesia and Japan may increase US purchases [4] - Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be large in April. US soybean planting progress is 8% as of April 20. Chinese soybean imports in March were low [4] - Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease, and the ending inventory is raised [5] Petroleum Asphalt - **Price Outlook** - Intraday: Oscillate strongly [7] - Medium - term: Run strongly [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Long asphalt and short high - sulfur fuel oil spread strategy [7] - **Core Logic** - Supply: Local refineries are in loss, but the operating rate and production are increasing. Shandong refinery profit is - 645.37 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 30.7% [6] - Demand: Most areas have good construction conditions. Southern demand is stable, and northern demand is improving. Waterproofing membrane enterprises' operating rate is 32.0% [6] - Inventory: Refinery inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 57.5 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.6 tons to 56.3 tons [6][9] - Cost: Pay attention to Iran - US nuclear negotiations and sanctions. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the market, and the raw - material cost has support [9]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.23） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 2.市场传闻 MLF 投标区间下调了 10BP，叠加保险业协会称当前普通型人身保险产品预 定利率研究值为 2.13%，比一季度下调了 21BP，驱动长期利率中枢下行，有助带动长债收益 率逐步下移。 1.一季度经济数据显示国内基本面平稳向好，经济韧性较强，关税扰动下出口面临压力， 内需提振空间仍大。政策方面，国务院多个会议释放积极政策信号，注重稳预期、稳就业、 稳经济。近期国常会再度明确要加大逆周期调节力度，同时也指出要持续稳定股市，持续推 动房地产市场平稳健康发展。政策方面持有充足的储备，后续关注 4 月中央政治局会议增量 信息指引。 2.经历近期调整后，股市场配置价值进一步抬升，尤其"类平准基金"提振市场信心， 中长期资金加速入市的环境下，A 股长期稳健运行具备更为坚实的基础。最新披露的基金一 季报显示，继 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.22） 商品期货和期权 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：稳中偏弱 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：卖出虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，短期来看，由于一季度标肥价差较大，养殖端压栏及二育的情况增多， 而大猪集中抛售的情况暂未出现，供应释放的压力持续后移，二季度面临较大的供应压力。 长期来看，对于后续的生猪供应，从产能角度推算，2024 年 10 月份至 2025 年 3 月份新生 仔猪数量比上年同期增长 7%，4-9 月份生猪出栏量将明显增多，预计 2025 年 4-9 月生猪供 应将呈现持续增长的态势，供应压力增大，猪价不容乐观，需关注生猪的出栏节奏。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考策略：暂时观望 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 能 化 板 块 品种：原油 核心逻辑： 1、供应端，OPEC+公布 5 月份超额增产是油价在 4 月初宽幅下跌的主要因素之一，不 过 OPEC+的月度减产补偿计划将部分抵消增产压力。二季度来看，供应端将为油价带来一 定的支撑因素：第一，特朗普政府对于购买伊朗、委内瑞拉石油及天然气征收二级 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable and improving, with strong economic resilience. Policy signals are positive, and after recent adjustments, the allocation value of the stock market has increased. The short - term view of stock index futures is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is accumulating strength for an upward trend. The short - term view of treasury bond futures is that short - term bonds oscillate narrowly and long - term bonds are slightly weak, while the medium - term view is bullish [1][2][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For copper, the short - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 75,200 - 77,300, and the medium - term view is that it fluctuates within the range of 66,000 - 90,000. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and run at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term and fluctuate around the production cost in the medium - term [5][8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Short - term View**: Oscillating and strengthening - **Medium - term View**: Accumulating strength for an upward trend - **Reference Strategy**: Go long on IM2505 at low prices with a light position. Buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options - **Core Logic**: The Q1 economic data shows stable and improving domestic fundamentals. Policy signals are positive. After recent adjustments, the stock market's allocation value has increased, and the performance of domestic AI chip design companies may drive the strength of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Short - term View**: Short - term bonds oscillate narrowly, and long - term bonds are slightly weak - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions of T2506 and TL2506 for allocation purposes and wait and see for trading purposes - **Core Logic**: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain stable during the tax payment period. The issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds is earlier than expected, and attention should be paid to the local adjustment risk of ultra - long bonds [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Short - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 75,200 - 77,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 66,000 - 90,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish trading strategy - **Core Logic**: There are macro uncertainties. In March 2025, copper imports and production increased. Although there are supply - side challenges, production remains stable. Demand shows a mixed picture, and inventory has decreased. The risk of the tariff war has been released to some extent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved [5][6][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Short - term View**: Run weakly within the range of 8,600 - 8,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,300 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased, but the demand decline was greater, and the inventory level was still high [8] - **Polysilicon** - **Short - term View**: Continue to decline within the range of 37,000 - 38,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In March, the supply and demand of polysilicon both decreased, and the inventory was at a high level, indicating obvious oversupply [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Short - term View**: Oscillate and decline within the range of 70,000 - 70,300 - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate around the production cost within the range of 65,000 - 80,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions of LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is running at a low level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level within the year [11]