Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain a long - position mindset, monitor price movements at previous high levels (take profit if there is a sharp rally), and set stop - profit points. For options, hold out - of - the - money short put options with a light position and manage risks (rolling operations are possible). For calendar spreads, stay on the sidelines [4]. - Supply: Yichun's lithium mines are less likely to stop production. The Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi is unlikely to resume production this year, eliminating supply concerns. Overall, supply is expected to increase steadily as expected. Also, new warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and large open interest [5]. - Demand: Energy storage cell production is full, with independent energy storage contributing significant growth. New energy vehicles are in the peak production and sales season, and demand is expected to remain high in Q4 2025. Lithium prices are supported by strong demand, but supply growth may increase price volatility [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should conduct low - proportion short hedging, and downstream enterprises can conduct medium - proportion long hedging based on orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios with a light position and manage risks [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of November 13, battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3950 yuan week - on - week to 84350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3800 yuan to 82000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 500 yuan to 76180 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8170 yuan/ton [9]. - As of November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 5540 yuan (+6.73%) week - on - week to 87840 yuan/ton, and the weighted open interest increased by 128,300 lots to 1,037,300 lots [9]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lithium Ore Production and Import - In October 2025, the output of Chinese sample lithium spodumene was 7350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 550 tons (+8%); the total output of Chinese lithium mica was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450 tons (-3%) [12]. - In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 711,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Imports from Australia were 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; imports from Nigeria were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; imports from Zimbabwe were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% [12]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total shipment of Mysteel's Australian lithium concentrate to China was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The weekly average shipment to China was 68,000 tons, and the global shipment that week was 76,000 tons [12]. 2.2 Lithium Ore Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 125 dollars week - on - week to 1050 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 195 yuan to 2280 yuan/ton. As of November 7, the available inventory of lithium ore was 100,000 tons (82,000 tons in the previous period, increasing for three consecutive weeks) [15]. - As of November 13, the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium spodumene was 84,065 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium mica was 87,365 yuan/ton, and the loss from imported mica production was 6361 yuan/ton. The loss from producing lithium carbonate from imported raw materials deepened [15]. 2.3 Lithium Mine Project Progress - On November 6, 2025, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the "Public Notice of the Assessment Report on the Mining Right Transfer Income of the Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo Mine (Utilized but Unpaid Resources) in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province". It is estimated that the probability of resuming production this year is low, and concerns about its resumption are weakened in the short term [15]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Production - According to SMM statistics, the weekly output of lithium carbonate in the week of November 13 was 21,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11 tons. Among them, the output from spodumene decreased by 220 tons to 12,904 tons (accounting for 60%), the output from mica decreased by 70 tons to 2941 tons (accounting for 14%), the output from salt lakes increased by 236 tons to 3555 tons (accounting for 17%), and the output from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2145 tons (accounting for 10%) [21]. - In October 2025, the monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. The cumulative output from January to October was 780,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%. It is expected that the output of domestic lithium carbonate in November can still maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [21]. 2.5 Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide Import and Export - According to Chilean customs data, in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%; the amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 46%. From January to October 2025, Chile exported a total of 189,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, and the amount exported to China was 137,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [27]. - According to customs data, in September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3%, mainly affected by previous concentrated arrivals and domestic inventory digestion rhythms. Among them, 10,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 55.2%, and 6948 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 35.5% [27]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, the output of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Among them, the smelting output was 24,950 tons, and the causticizing output was 4270 tons. It is expected that the overall output of lithium hydroxide in November will have a slight upward trend, with a roughly flat year - on - year performance [28]. - According to customs data, China's lithium hydroxide imports in September 2025 were 1473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.3%, mainly due to the moderate recovery of high - nickel ternary material demand; exports were 6526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [28]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%, and a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and 6.9% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [33]. - In 2025, from January to October, the sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks in China exceeded 119,600, a year - on - year increase of 198%. In September 2025, 392,000 new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 33% and a month - on - month increase of 62%, with a market penetration rate of 31.7% [33]. - In October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 1.983 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.4% [33]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched purchase tax subsidy plans, which will ease the cliff - like decline in vehicle sales across the year to some extent [33]. 3.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage cell supply is growing steadily, and demand from diversified investment entities is increasing. Overseas energy storage orders are also growing due to tariff relief and favorable policies [36]. - The "New Energy Storage Large - scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025 - 2027)" sets a goal of reaching an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investment of about 250 billion yuan [36]. - Australia, the UK and other countries have introduced policies to support the development of energy storage, ensuring sufficient energy storage orders [36]. 3.3 Lithium Battery Production - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's lithium battery output was 192.9 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8%. Among them, the output of power cells increased by 11% to 125 GWh, the output of energy storage cells increased by 3% to 54 GWh, and the output of consumer and other cells increased by 3% to 14 GWh [43]. - From November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026, the implementation of 6 export control measures related to strategic fields such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials will be suspended [43]. - According to大东时代智库, in November 2025, the production of power + energy storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh; the production of lithium battery A was 71.4 GWh, the production of lithium battery B was 31.4 GWh, and the production of lithium battery C was 14.9 GWh. The production of consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was about 16 GWh. The production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market in November 2025 was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. 3.4 Lithium Battery Material Market - Lithium iron phosphate: In October 2025, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the production in November will increase by 8% month - on - month to 425,898 tons [49]. - Ternary materials: In October 2025, the output of ternary materials was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. It is expected that the market demand will continue to improve in November, and the production plan will continue to rise slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 1.37% and a year - on - year increase of 39.76% [49]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's electrolyte output increased by 4.8% month - on - month to 207,580 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 1.655 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.3% [50]. - According to SMM research, in October 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate output increased by 14% month - on - month to 25,420 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 200,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.4% [50]. 4. Inventory Analysis - As of November 13, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3481 tons week - on - week to 120,500 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 2445 tons to 28,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3236 tons to 48,800 tons, and the inventory of other sectors such as traders increased by 2200 tons to 43,400 tons [54]. - As of November 13, the warehouse receipt volume was 26,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2384 tons. New warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and the forced cancellation of non - compliant warehouse receipts at the end of November [54]. 5. Basis Analysis - The holding cost for 1 - month is about 1838 yuan/ton, and for 2 - month is about 2460 yuan/ton. Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios and manage risks [56]. 6. Spread Analysis - The 11 - 12 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 04 spread approaching the March delivery month [58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted. After the export quota was finalized, market sentiment gradually cooled, and the price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The urea futures price is likely to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, supported by export news and reserve demand expectations, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited. The UR01&05 spread strengthened slightly recently, but its rebound space is also limited. For options, the short - term reduction of positions in the previously sold main call options is recommended, with attention to risk control and stop - loss [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted this week. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1,658 yuan/ton. The current urea futures market is in a relatively strong oscillation. After the new batch of export quotas was finalized, market sentiment cooled, but the price still showed some resistance to decline. The improvement in fundamental supply and demand is relatively limited. Although the industrial inventory has declined from its high level, the absolute quantity still exerts significant pressure, weakening the price rebound momentum to some extent. The price is likely to oscillate and adjust, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited [6]. Spot Market - This week, the prices of the urea spot market in various regions increased slightly. Due to export stimulation, traders and end - users appropriately increased their replenishment, and factory quotes were relatively firm, but the sustainability was insufficient. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong was about 1,550 - 1,630 yuan/ton, the reference price for first - hand traders in Linyi was around 1,600 yuan/ton, and that in Heze was around 1,590 yuan/ton [9]. Basis and Spread - This week, the basis adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 58 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 18 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 73 yuan/ton, adjusting at a low level [9]. Warehouse Receipts - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has gradually increased. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 6,958. Currently, the warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings, while those in other factories and warehouses are relatively low [10]. Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 229,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the maintenance volume of coal - based sample plants was about 18,230 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period; the maintenance volume of gas - based sample plants was about 46,700 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. As of November 13, the domestic urea operating rate was about 84.08%, an increase of about 1.37% compared with the previous period. This week, the urea output was about 1.3769 million tons, an increase of about 22,400 tons compared with last week. The continuous increase in the stock load pressure may drag down the subsequent urea price, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to improve due to the expected release of new production capacity [13][16][17]. Downstream Industries - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72% compared with last week. The profit of compound fertilizer continued to be compressed. The inventory of compound fertilizer decreased to about 656,300 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 6.36%. The seasonal slowdown of the compound fertilizer load may weaken its support for urea [19]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the domestic melamine operating rate was about 57.48%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine output increased to about 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.15%. The load is expected to remain strong in the future [20]. Inventory and Pre - sales - As of November 12, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was about 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of about 94,500 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 5.99%. The port inventory increased to 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period. As of now, the pre - sales days are about 7.71 days, an increase of about 0.42 days compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure of the urea industry has been moderately relieved, but the absolute quantity is still large, and further inventory digestion is needed [23][24]. Industry Profits - As of November 13, the profit of the fixed - bed process was about - 327 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the profit of the coal - water slurry process was about 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the profit of the natural gas process was about - 282 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The urea industry profit has continued to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, so the profit is likely to continue weak adjustment [27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2511 contract was 13,775 tons, a 27% increase compared to the LC2510 delivery volume. Among them, the rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons, accounting for 80% [2][6]. - [Basis] Benefiting from the amplified price fluctuations of lithium carbonate, there were successive opportunities for cash - buying and November - selling transactions since July 2025. After the strong rally of lithium carbonate futures prices, the weakening of the spot - futures basis provided trading space for spot - futures positive arbitrage, but risk management was necessary. [Spread] The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, which still followed the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The spread fluctuations between non - cancellation month contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The LC2511 contract had a total delivery warehouse receipt volume of 13,775 tons, a 27% increase from LC2510. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated on the first day of the delivery month. The rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons (80%), one - time centralized delivery was 473 tons (3%), and the volume of delivery against cash was 2,284 tons [6]. - The report also lists the delivery volumes of different buyer and seller members, such as Guotai Junan Futures with a delivery volume of 1,680 tons on the buyer side and 650 tons on the seller side [7]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - The report shows the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and warehouses, such as the distribution in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan. As of November 18, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 15,800 tons compared to the first trading day after the National Day holiday [10][15]. - A table lists the minimum guaranteed storage capacity, warehouse receipts, and other information of various warehouses and factories. For example, the minimum guaranteed storage capacity of Cosco Shipping Zhenjiang is 5,000 tons, with 1,696 warehouse receipts [13]. 3.3 Basis and Inter - period Opportunity Review - When there was one month left until the delivery of the 11 - contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,323 yuan/ton (the futures capital cost could be saved after the warehouse receipt offset the margin). Since July 2025, there were opportunities for cash - buying and futures - selling transactions. The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, following the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month [19][21][22]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - With the storage days calculated from the first trading day of the delivery month, the holding cost of cash - buying and selling the 2601 contract was about 2,320 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis was around - 6,120 yuan/ton, and one could moderately participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage (with risk management). - The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The futures market was strong under the expectation of high - demand prosperity, but the spread fluctuations between contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [24][26].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Reserve Demand Supports, Urea Futures Prices Show Strong Resistance to Decline - Weekly Urea Market Analysis" [1] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Chang Xuemei, Chemical Researcher at Haizheng Futures Research Institute [28] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand data of urea has improved recently, and the price is relatively firm. The short - term price is supported by the improvement of industrial and agricultural demand and optimistic expectations for Indian tenders and exports. However, the high daily production may limit the price rebound space, and the price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the future [6]. - The UR01&05 spread continues to fluctuate and adjust, and the impact of the main contract shift on the spread needs further attention [6]. - The urea industry inventory pressure has been further relieved, but the absolute inventory is still large and needs further digestion [23]. - The urea industry profit continues to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, so the profit may continue to be weakly adjusted [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the main 01 contract of urea fluctuated upward, showing strong resistance to decline. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1665 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of urea in various regions increased slightly. Northeast procurement improved the domestic urea trading. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong was about 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis was strongly volatile. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 25 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 15 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spread**: As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 70 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening with relatively limited volatility [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been stable. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 7183, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [10]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Maintenance**: This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 20.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the coal - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 16.27 million tons, a decrease of 21.96 million tons compared with the previous period; the gas - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 4.67 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period [13]. - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the domestic urea operating rate was about 83.91%, a slight decrease of about 0.17% compared with the previous period. The coal - based production capacity utilization rate of urea production enterprises was about 87.23%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period; the gas - based production capacity utilization rate was about 72.55%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous period [15]. - **Production**: This week, the urea production was about 142.04 million tons, an increase of about 4.35 million tons compared with last week. The coal - based weekly urea production was about 114.31 million tons, an increase of about 4.43 million tons from the previous period; the gas - based weekly urea production was about 27.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 20, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 34.61%, an increase of 4.29% compared with last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was about 65.48 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.23%. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong continued to be compressed [18]. - **Melamine**: As of November 20, the domestic melamine enterprise operating rate was about 62.2%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine production was about 3.2 million tons, continuing to rise compared with last week. The short - term increase in operating rate is expected to slow down [20]. 3.4 Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the total domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 143.72 million tons, a decrease of about 4.64 million tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 3.13%. The urea port sample inventory was about 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 21.95%. The current pre - sales days were about 7.12 days, a decrease of about 0.59 days compared with the previous period [22][23]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the fixed - bed process profit was about - 307 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the coal - water slurry profit was about 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with last week; the natural gas profit was about - 288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand surplus of industrial silicon has narrowed due to the dry season in Southwest China, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the single - direction operation is difficult due to the fundamental surplus and the undetermined "anti - involution" situation [5]. - The "anti - involution" measures for polysilicon have certain impacts on price and production capacity, but the implementation of policies such as storage and capacity reduction has uncertainties [28]. - The demand for photovoltaic main materials continues to decline, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased this week [37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 21, the spot prices of some industrial silicon grades in East China increased slightly, while the industrial silicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 8960 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 53360 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Industrial Silicon**: Southwest China has entered the dry season for production cuts. Although Xinjiang's production is still being released, the total industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop to about 400,000 tons. There are also some potential production projects in the future, but the "anti - involution" policy may affect their implementation [5][9]. - **Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" measures have led to the restoration of enterprise profits and the resumption of production, increasing the difficulty of capacity clearance and inventory reduction. The impact of policies such as price limits, energy consumption limits, and storage on the supply side has uncertainties [28]. 3.3 Cost Side - The prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials are relatively stable, but the electricity price in Southwest China will rise during the dry season, leading to an increase in production costs and production losses in the region [24][26]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Main Materials**: From November to December, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in China is expected to decline. The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased, and the demand for overseas markets has declined [37]. - **Organic Silicon**: The joint production reduction plan of organic silicon monomer plants will be implemented on December 1, which is expected to reduce the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production rate of aluminum alloy in November is at a high level, and the output in October was 1.682 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 19.5% [52]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of factory and social (including warehouse receipts) was 725,800 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous period [55]. 3.6 Spread and Arbitrage - For industrial silicon, new orders, options, and basis trading are on the sidelines. Upstream enterprises can conduct low - proportion selling hedging, and downstream enterprises such as polysilicon can conduct appropriate buying hedging according to orders [5]. - For polysilicon, hold light - position long orders and set stop - losses. Hold short - put options and manage risks. Upstream enterprises can conduct appropriate selling hedging at high positions, and downstream enterprises can conduct appropriate buying hedging to lock in costs [5]. 3.7 Policy and Industry Events - There are a series of policies and events in the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad, including the "anti - involution" governance in the domestic photovoltaic industry, the adjustment of energy consumption standards for polysilicon, and the trade policies of the United States and the European Union towards the photovoltaic industry [28][63][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a loose pattern, with the center of futures and spot prices moving down, and the delivery volume and warehouse receipt volume hitting new highs, indicating a large selling pressure in the market [2][6]. - The UR2511&2601 spread mainly follows the reverse arbitrage logic, and the UR2601&2605 spread is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export, reserve demand expectations, and high - load production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Delivery Information Summary - Since its listing, the urea 11 - contract has undergone 6 deliveries. In the mainstream delivery areas of Henan and Hebei, the 11 - contract has mostly had a discounted futures price. The current UR2511 contract's delivery settlement price is 1619 yuan/ton, with a lower basis compared to historical contracts. The delivery volume of the UR2511 contract is about 3950 lots (about 79,000 tons), an increase compared to the 2510 contract and last year's 11 - contract, reflecting the loose market situation [2][6][12]. 3.2 Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - As of the end of November, the urea warehouse receipt volume is much higher than the historical level. As of the last trading day in November, the warehouse receipt volume is about 7183 lots, an increase of 1627 lots from the previous month and 3469 lots from the same period last year. High warehouse receipt volume weakens the long - position holding willingness and is related to factors such as loose supply - demand, expanded sales channels, and hedging needs [3][14]. - Warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Zhongnong Holdings, and Anhui Zhongneng, with Yuntu Holdings having the highest proportion (about 28%). In terms of provinces, Henan has the largest warehouse receipt volume (about 21.3%), followed by Hubei and Hebei (17.3% - 17.4%). Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 84% [3][15]. - Among the seller member seats, Yide Futures has the highest proportion (about 26.03%), followed by Guohai Liangshi and Zhongyuan Futures. Among the buyer member seats, Guotai Junan has the largest proportion (about 118.71%), followed by Hongyuan Futures and Wuchan Zhongda [3][19]. 3.3 Later Evaluation - The UR2511&2601 spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic due to insufficient industrial and agricultural demand and inventory accumulation. The UR2601&2605 spread is under pressure from high inventory, with limited further downward space and weak rebound momentum. It is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export and reserve demand expectations and high - load production [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The seasonal performance of the basis of the urea 11 - contract in Hebei this year is weaker than that of last year, with low volatility. The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and there are limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities. In the long - term, the loose market pattern may increase enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery [22]. - The report also provides detailed information on urea delivery factories, warehouses, and the calculation of theoretical delivery costs [21][24][26].

Group 1: Report Introduction - Report title: Urea 2507 Contract Delivery Analysis [1] - Release date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Haizheng Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Delivery Information Summary - Urea 07 contract has undergone 6 deliveries since listing, with the contract in Henan and Hebei mainly at a discount to the spot [2][7] - UR2507 contract delivery settlement price is 1748 yuan/ton, with a Henan spot premium of 92 yuan/ton and a Hebei spot premium of 42 yuan/ton, and the basis is within a reasonable range [2][7] - UR2507 delivery pairing is about 1310 lots, with a nominal delivery volume of about 26,200 tons, an increase of about 791 lots compared to the 2506 contract and 1096 lots compared to last year's 07 contract [2][13] Group 3: Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - This year's warehouse receipt volume is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, but it has gradually declined in recent months, and the enterprise selling pressure has eased [3][16] - As of the last trading day in July, the urea warehouse receipt volume is about 2630, a decrease of 3292 compared to the 2506 contract and an increase of 1562 compared to the 2407 contract [3][16] - UR2507 contract warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings and Zhongnong Holdings, with Yuntu Holdings accounting for the highest proportion at about 36.5% [3][19] - In terms of provincial distribution, Sichuan has the largest warehouse receipt volume, accounting for about 37%, followed by Hebei and Anhui [3][19] - Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 96% of the total [3][19] - Sellers' seats are relatively concentrated, with Changjiang Futures accounting for the highest proportion at about 43%, followed by Yide Futures at about 34% [21] - Buyers' seats are more dispersed, with Guotai Junan accounting for the largest proportion at about 23%, followed by Guotou Futures and Yong'an Futures at about 15% [21] Group 4: Later Assessment - The UR2507&2509 spread mainly shows a narrowing trend, with limited arbitrage space [4] - The UR2509&2601 spread is mainly based on the reverse arbitrage logic in the short term, and the space for further narrowing is also limited [4] Group 5: Historical Data Analysis - The delivery volume of the main contracts is large and stable, while that of non - main contracts is relatively low [10] - This year's delivery volume of each contract is higher than the same period in history, and the delivery volume in the first and second quarters has increased significantly [10] - It is estimated that the delivery volume in the second half of the year is expected to further increase [10] Group 6: Basis and Arbitrage Analysis - This year's basis in Henan for the urea 07 contract is weaker than the same period last year, and there was basis discount in some periods [24] - The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, with limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities [25] - In the medium and long term, as the urea market remains loose, enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery may increase [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].