1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report suggests that due to the increase in zinc ore imports and processing fees, along with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, increasing production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously shut - down capacity, supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices have adjusted widely, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Domestic social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories are rising, increasing pressure on zinc prices. Technically, with declining positions, both long and short positions are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.44%, down 0.78 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.74%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, remaining below expectations for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held, stating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has slightly decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output of restored production capacity. The inventory performance of inland enterprises varies. Some enterprises' inventory continues to accumulate due to weak downstream demand, while the inventory of some olefin plants decreases as the pre - accumulated methanol inventory is gradually consumed after restoration. The methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream demand remains weak, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2430 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 654,082 lots, up 3,207 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,457 lots, down 9,436 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, down 320 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1972.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 402.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 8 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; in South China ports, it is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 21.11 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.91%. The dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%; the MTBE operating rate is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The olefin operating rate is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 888 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.24%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.23%, up 0.28 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% decrease; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons from the previous data. The domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.94%, up 0.55 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 fell 2.10% to close at 2466 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device overhauls in Central and East China last week and increased load in some devices in South and North China. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.1% to 80.4% with little change. On the demand side, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, and the average profit of alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80% last week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 37.43 tons last week with little inventory pressure. The planned overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July decreased. Recently, the downstream start - up of liquid chlorine increased, and the inverted situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, which repaired the chlor - alkali profit and opened up the room for the increase of the caustic soda start - up rate. There are many stop and restart devices this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 2420 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the futures holding volume was 259,807 lots, an increase of 13,653 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 13,152 lots, a decrease of 8,447 lots; the futures trading volume was 762,212 lots, an increase of 243,118 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal was 636 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 3150 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [3].

处于低位，对玉米采购需求减弱。同时，小麦饲用替代优势明显，饲料企业逐渐加大小麦采购替代玉米， 玉米系产业日报 2025-07-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 2293 59 1054601 | -2 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 吨) 0 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) 18363 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2639 45 267829 | -2 5 5198 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -20610 | -7222 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -14076 | -2841 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 185421 | 手) -390 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 15794 | -26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon's three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon continues to show a slowdown trend. The industrial silicon price has been rising, with spot prices driving up futures prices, but trading volume is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8685 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the position of the main contract is 379848 lots, down 16805 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70457 lots, down 2674 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50215 lots, down 43 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 10, down 15 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 515 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305200 tons, up 5500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552000 tons, up 10000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52919.65 tons, down 12197.89 tons [2] 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24179.3 tons; the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 201878500 tons, up 164500 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 11700 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 行业消息 - There are rumors that large industrial silicon manufacturers have cancelled their复产 plans and electricity price subsidies have been cancelled, but they are unconfirmed and need further tracking. Trump said that tariffs will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1, with a 50% tariff increase. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, and large - scale production enterprises have not reported any production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest has decreased, with enterprises in Baoshan actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers are mainly focused on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) 85 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 10365 | | 136696 | 3717 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) -3871 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | -17591 | | 9028 | -94 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 0 | 1448 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the macro - aspect, the US core CPI in June increased 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for 5 consecutive months. The US Treasury Secretary said there's no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs deadline between the US and China, and the negotiation is in a "good state". In the fundamental aspect, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is highly uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of Burmese tin mines, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing raw material shortages and cost pressures, and Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have adjusted widely, with downstream buyers purchasing on dips, domestic inventory slightly decreasing, while LME de - stocking has slowed down and the premium has declined. Technically, with low positions and differences between long and short positions, the triangular oscillation is converging. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 263,960 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 22,748 lots, down 1,702 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons. LME tin's cancelled warehouse receipts are 420 tons, down 150 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 263,600 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the two - sides' negotiation is quite close on the principle text, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade inventories increasing. Overseas supplies arriving at the port for storage increased month - on - month, but the moderate restocking and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricted the port shipment rate. The domestic tire enterprises' capacity utilization rates varied last week. The production scheduling of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. Some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate slightly. This week, the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,650 lots, down 1,089 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 66,567 lots, up 1,192 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,912 lots, up 4,087 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,986 lots, up 1,272 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,389 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,470 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.05%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.06%, up 0.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 15, the bond market was affected by multiple factors. The recent strength of the equity market has suppressed bond market sentiment, but the core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital - market situation continues to support the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.47% respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 7033, 4371, 1340, and 9323 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 all increased slightly, while spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2600, 3832, 67, and 539 respectively. The net short positions of T, TS, and TL had different changes, with T and TS increasing by 860 and 768 respectively, and TL decreasing by 242 [2]. 3.2 Bond Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 2500802.IB, 240020.IB, etc. all decreased [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds were 1.36%, 1.42%, 1.513%, 1.61%, and 1.6661% respectively, with the 1 - year yield decreasing by 1bp, the 3 - year increasing by 0.5bp, the 5 - year increasing by 0.05bp, and the 10 - year increasing by 0.01bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 10.68bp, the 7 - day rate increased by 2.67bp, and the 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp. The overnight Shibor increased by 12bp, the 7 - day increased by 3.1bp, and the 14 - day increased by 4.4bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3425 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 690 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net investment of 2735 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value to the US was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, with exports decreasing by 9.9% and imports decreasing by 7.7% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on July 15, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. At 04:00 on July 16, Bank of England Governor Bailey will give a speech [3].