1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 15, the bond market was affected by multiple factors. The recent strength of the equity market has suppressed bond market sentiment, but the core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital - market situation continues to support the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.47% respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 7033, 4371, 1340, and 9323 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 all increased slightly, while spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2600, 3832, 67, and 539 respectively. The net short positions of T, TS, and TL had different changes, with T and TS increasing by 860 and 768 respectively, and TL decreasing by 242 [2]. 3.2 Bond Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 2500802.IB, 240020.IB, etc. all decreased [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds were 1.36%, 1.42%, 1.513%, 1.61%, and 1.6661% respectively, with the 1 - year yield decreasing by 1bp, the 3 - year increasing by 0.5bp, the 5 - year increasing by 0.05bp, and the 10 - year increasing by 0.01bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 10.68bp, the 7 - day rate increased by 2.67bp, and the 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp. The overnight Shibor increased by 12bp, the 7 - day increased by 3.1bp, and the 14 - day increased by 4.4bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3425 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 690 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net investment of 2735 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the real estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value to the US was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, with exports decreasing by 9.9% and imports decreasing by 7.7% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on July 15, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. At 04:00 on July 16, Bank of England Governor Bailey will give a speech [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased with the improvement of industry expectations, driving up the quotation of lithium ore prices, and the hedging opportunities in the futures market have also increased the demand for raw materials from lithium salt plants. However, the industry's supply is still under pressure, with high inventory levels, and downstream inventory - building willingness is relatively cautious. Therefore, current lithium price trading should be treated with caution. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. - The recommended operation is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,519 hands, down 30,622 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 342,146 hands, down 14,015 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,203 hands/ton, down 1 hand. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons per month, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons per month, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons per month, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The production of power batteries is 129,200 MWh per month, up 5,700 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 205,000 units, down 7,000 units. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 155,979 contracts, up 22,108 contracts; the total put position is 60,607 contracts, up 8,513 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.86%, down 0.0577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0460 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new - energy vehicles were newly registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of newly registered vehicles. - An A - share lithium mining enterprise executive said that the company's focus has shifted to cost reduction and control, and the current lithium price is still below most manufacturers' break - even lines. - The global power battery installed capacity increased by 110% year - on - year, and overseas shipments accounted for 30%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the consumption off - season, demand is stable but trending weaker. The key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening. The short - term supply shortage has slightly improved, the price boost is weakened, the upward pace slows down, and the demand off - season and medium - term supply pressure will still restrict the price upside. The market will mainly show an oscillatory trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the main contract position is 67,876 lots, a decrease of 1,508 lots; the number of warehouses is 444 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 17,959 lots, a decrease of 1,301 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, a decrease of 1,0120,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, an increase of 40,000 heads. The CPI year - on - year is - 0.1%, the corn spot price is 2,413.63 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 935.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.82 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 2,830, an increase of 0.21 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, an increase of 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.2 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, an increase of 1390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424,470,000 heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; in the first half of the year, the live pig slaughter was 366,190,000 heads, an increase of 0.6%. On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has slightly improved recently. On the demand side, high temperatures suppress people's willingness to buy pork, schools are on holiday, the terminal sales speed is slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate continues to decline, but it is higher than the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has slightly decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货. The port inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. The overall downstream demand remains weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The olefin industry's overall operating rate may increase slightly this week, but some MTO units are expected to shut down, and attention should be paid to the implementation of low - profit maintenance of MTO units. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2386 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 650,875 lots, down 4,644 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,021 lots, down 8,122 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9,251, up 723 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 410 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 1 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.45 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 million tons, up 6.1 million tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 million tons, down 1.58 million tons. The import profit of methanol is - 26.11 yuan/ton, down 29.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, up 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 943 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.88%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.75%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.94%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.95%, up 0.9 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, up 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, down 2.00 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, up 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in South China decreased [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price has limited upside space under the background of weak supply and demand after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to focus on the support around 4950 and the pressure around 5050 on the daily K - line [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4975 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume is 982125 lots, down 51490 lots; the open interest is 959779 lots, up 2988 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 780350 lots, down 2969 lots; the short position is 788539 lots, up 13916 lots; the net long position is - 8189 lots, down 16885 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4868.46 yuan/ton, down 20.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4917.5 yuan/ton, down 31.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 105 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2621.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan. The weekly average price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; the weekly average price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars. The weekly average price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, up 27 dollars; the weekly average price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, up 31 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons. The total social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.44%, up 0.1 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.74%, up 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.61%, up 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.61%, up 1.16 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 was stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4820 to 4910 yuan/ton. From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. As of July 10th, the large - sample statistics of PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% month - on - month to 62.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Outlook - In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant of Yidongdongxing is planned to stop for maintenance, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. In the long - term, the planned commissioning of plants by Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu in July will increase the industry's supply pressure. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. There is still uncertainty about the calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, the domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of the ethylene - based process may continue to decline in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel mills are facing increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, the downstream shows a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of +5; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, with a change of - 540; the main contract position is 66,494 lots, with a change of - 11,562. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,991 tons, with a change of - 60 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The SS main contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231,836,100 square meters, an increase of 53,477,700 square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, with a change of - 10,400 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a change of - 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a change of - 10,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately easy monetary policy. China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation, and service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand. The EU's Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiations fail, the EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported goods worth about 84 billion US dollars. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity has accelerated, and the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly recently, weakening the raw material cost support [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].

率同比有所下降。近期锌价宽幅调整，下游逢低采购为主，对高价锌接受度仍较低，国内社库持续增加， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 现货升水降至低位；海外LME库存回升，对锌价压力增加。技术面，持仓下行多空谨慎，区间震荡运行， 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关注22000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-07-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22250 | -130 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 15 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2738 | -39 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 238274 | -13815 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 15052 | -8302 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 9171 | 298 | | | 上期所库存(周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: July 15, 2025 [1] - **Report Name**: Hot Rolled Coil Industry Chain Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, China's fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to slow down, dampening market sentiment. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with the total inventory rising by 0.63 tons. The apparent demand decreased slightly but remained above 3.2 million tons. - Overall, the hot - rolled coil output remained at a relatively high level, and the terminal demand showed strong resilience. The promotion of the orderly exit of backward production capacity still supported the steel market, but the decline in the first - half economic data affected market confidence. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward, with the green bar expanding. In operation, consider 3,200 as the long - short watershed in the short - term, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,259 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,566,776 lots, down 13,515 lots - HC contract top 20 net position: - 20,861 lots, up 2,773 lots - HC10 - 1 contract spread: - 18 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 64,587 tons, unchanged - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged - HC main contract basis: 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 752 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons - Hebei billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40% - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2314 million tons, down 50,000 tons - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.55%, down 1.28% - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 778,100 tons, down 5,100 tons - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6775 million tons, up 11,400 tons - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons - Steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles - Air conditioners: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units - Household refrigerators: 8.51 million units, up 331,000 units - Household washing machines: 9.412 million units, down 239,000 units 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. After deducting the impact of price factors, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in June decreased by 0.12%.