数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 736.50 | +3.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 659,461 | +4304↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 26.5 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with plans for plants in Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos to shut down, expected to keep the capacity utilization rate on a downward trend. Although plants like Wanhua, Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are scheduled to start production, future policies to push out backward production capacity may ease supply pressure. - It's the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the Indian market demand is constrained by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the BIS certification in India has been extended to mid - December. - The impact of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia on calcium carbide has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed operation. The US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may lead to a decrease in the cost of the ethylene - based method. - In the short term, the expectation of production capacity exit and real - estate support policies gives room for a premium on the main futures contract, but the futures price is suppressed by weak real - world demand and costs. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4885 and the resistance around 5000 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4963 yuan/ton, a increase of 69 yuan; the trading volume was 974,935 lots, an increase of 240,750 lots; the open interest was 967,373 lots, an increase of 32,878 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 16,621 lots, an increase of 42,834 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4792.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4841.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2631.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92%. The total social inventory of PVC was 37.31 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the inventory in East China was 33.03 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory in South China was 4.28 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, an increase of 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, an increase of 428.168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.71%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.63%, an increase of 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC was 19.17%, an increase of 0.65% [3]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. - According to Longzhong Information, on July 9, the cash - remittance price of PVCSG5 in East China warehouses increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4760 - 4860 yuan/ton. - From June 28 to July 4, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous period. V2509 rose 1.58% to close at 4963 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 0.94% to 39.5%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.25% to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, last week, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% to 785,100 tons, at a neutral level compared with the same period in the past three years. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% to 5.918 million tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,063.00 | 0.00 RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2174941 | +6394↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 10918 | -7884↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -24 | -4↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 44905 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 127 | -1↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,292 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the high supply of pure benzene both domestically and overseas, the inventory at East China ports has increased, and the profit of pure benzene is lower than the same period in previous years. The supply of domestic pure benzene exceeds demand, and the increase in overseas pure benzene export this year further exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. Although the recent rise in international oil prices may support the cost side, in the short term, the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the upward space of BZ2603 futures may be restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of pure benzene 03, 04, 05, and 06 contracts are 6070 yuan/ton (up 139), 6080 yuan/ton (up 154), 6079 yuan/ton (up 151), and 6050 yuan/ton (up 132) respectively. The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 31,731 lots, and the open interest is 9,140 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6,866 yuan/ton, 4,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton (down 150), and 5,800 yuan/ton (down 20) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 5,975 yuan/ton (up 50) and 5,675 yuan/ton (up 40) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 717 US dollars/ton (up 5) and 730.5 US dollars/ton (up 3) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 72.04 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 586.5 US dollars/ton (up 9.5) [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14% (up 0.13), the weekly output is 43.33 tons (up 0.07), the port inventory is 17.7 tons (up 0.6), the production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton (down 118.2), and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton (up 76) [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 80.03% (down 0.05), the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (up 6.41), the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54% (down 0.46), the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24% (down 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3% (up 2) [2]. Industry News - The GDP scale of China in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan [2]. - From June 27 to July 3, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 7, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 17.4 tons, a decrease of 1.69% compared with the previous period and an increase of 480.00% year - on - year. BZ2603 rose 2.50% to close at 6,070 yuan/ton [2].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7254 | 29 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 | 26 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 218535 | 9174 持仓量(日,手) | 436321 | -12259 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 28 | 3 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 356143 | -7143 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 396063 | -15721 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -39920 | 8578 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7244.78 | -15.65 LLDPE(7042)均价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 7th local time that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote consultations between China and the US on trade and other issues. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to rise, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.83%, remaining at a high level. Both factory and social inventories increased, with the total inventory rising by 3.77 million tons. The apparent demand was 3.2437 million tons, 66,700 tons higher than the same period last year. Overall, the output of hot-rolled coils remained high, and the terminal demand was quite resilient. Tariff issues and anti-involution affected the market trading sentiment, but the strong performance of furnace materials provided cost support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were回调 downward and might test the support at the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to go long on dips, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position volume was 1,582,553 lots, a decrease of 11,138 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 20,460 lots, an increase of 1,883 lots; the price difference between the HC10 - 1 contract was -11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,587 tons, unchanged; the price difference between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the HC main contract was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 727 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the market price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.784 million tons, a decrease of 518,300 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 617,100 tons, a decrease of 121,000 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3755 million tons, an increase of 100,400 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 873,400 tons, an increase of 100,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.44%, a decrease of 0.40%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27%, a decrease of 0.58% [2]. - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.2814 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 83.83%, an increase of 0.24% [2]. - The factory inventory of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 783,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6661 million tons, an increase of 367,000 tons [2]. - The domestic crude steel output was 8.655 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.6485 million vehicles, an increase of 29,800 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 2.6863 million vehicles, an increase of 96,700 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 29.48 million units, a decrease of 1.353 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.51 million units, an increase of 331,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 9.412 million units, a decrease of 239,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, the national ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 7th local time that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote consultations between China and the US on trade and other issues [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot-rolled coils on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Although the US restarts the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. A series of pro - growth policies are taking effect, and the market expects positive Q2 economic data. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching July Politburo meeting, market bulls may pre - arrange, pushing the stock market up. It is recommended to make light - position purchases on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 3952.8, down 6.4; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2724.0, down 4.8; the IC main contract (2509) was at 5823.4, down 24.6; the IM main contract (2509) was at 6214.0, down 12.2 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts declined, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1247.2, down 2.2; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 1953.0, down 22.6 [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF and IH main contracts increased, while that of IC and IM main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.6, up 1.3; the IC main contract basis was - 130.1, down 10.3 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,895.00, down 1197.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16%. The CSI 300 was at 3991.40, down 7.1; the SSE 50 was at 2739.92, down 7.3; the CSI 500 was at 5953.49, down 24.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6390.47, down 17.2 [2] - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: A - share trading volume was 15,274.20 billion yuan, up 528.08 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 18,649.31 billion yuan, up 55.51 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 1676.66 billion yuan, up 309.01 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Industry News - **US Trade Policy**: Trump announced that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. Each BRICS member will soon be subject to a 10% tariff [2] - **US - China Trade Talks**: The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year (from a 0.1% decline in the previous period), and fell 0.1% month - on - month (from a 0.2% decline in the previous period); PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year (from a 3.3% decline in the previous period), and fell 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous period) [2] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes on July 10 at 2:00 and China's June financial data (to be determined) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, affected by the increase in maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, with the national average utilization rate decreasing by 2.0% to 80.5%. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in July has decreased. The low profit suppresses the expectation of supply - side improvement in the future [2]. - Demand side: Last week, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.89% to 81.56%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs [2]. - Inventory: Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period [2]. - Price: The price of liquid chlorine is deeply inverted due to the imbalance between supply and demand, which drags down chlor - alkali profits. The chlor - alkali device is in a slight loss state. The purchase price of Shandong alumina plants has been raised, driving up the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda. The SH2509 contract is slightly at a discount, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2500 yuan/ton technically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2454 yuan/ton, and the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2438 yuan/ton and 2487 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 687,008 lots, an increase of 38,580 lots, and the futures position is 255,481 lots, an increase of 3,944 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,837 lots, an increase of 16,162 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions is 810 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2531.25 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 225 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's GDP scale will be about 140 trillion yuan in 2025. From June 27th to July 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.5%, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous period. As of July 3rd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 1.58% from the previous period and an increase of 2.45% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Eggs have entered the seasonal demand off - season, with high egg - laying hen inventory and large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens. Egg supply is abundant. Affected by the plum rain season, storage costs increase, downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old hen culling has accelerated, reducing the inventory expectation. The near - month futures price is generally weak due to the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are obviously resistant to decline, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 39; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27941 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 5118; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 20 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 18; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands; the futures open interest (active contract) is 150786 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 22760 [2]. 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.55 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28; the basis (spot - futures) is - 931 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 110.89 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46; the national culled laying hen index is 108.68 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 11.92; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/feather, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1; the national new - born chick index is 106.78 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.58 yuan/head, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.4 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.16; the national culled chicken age is 506 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.53 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.35 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.02 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.22 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.18; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.12 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7606 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 331 [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from yesterday; eggs have entered the seasonal demand off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious downstream purchases [2]. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2].