影响有限。近期供需两弱，下游按需采购，国内社会库存小幅增加；海外库存持稳。技术面，持仓增量空 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 沪镍产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119140 | -1230 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -90 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15015 | -115 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 72919 | 5696 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -11671 | -3104 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 203562 | 942 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 24922 | 204 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 8484 | -18 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 20677 | -156 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon faces significant pressure, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling reduced and demand marginally weakening. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to see a continued decline in overall output, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is still in the de - stocking phase, which may drag down the futures' upward range. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 39,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 885 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 97,187 lots, a decrease of 13,360 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 31,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 960 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is 730 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 33 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 21.67, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of July 8, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type compact material, N - type re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 31 yuan/kg, 32 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, and on the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The demand side of polysilicon is under great pressure, and the inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises has not been fully digested, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is in the de - stocking phase, and the futures' upward range may be affected. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2]

| 7月09日 22:00 美国5月批发销售月率 | | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月10日 02:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 20:30 美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | 研究员： | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff situation has slightly heated up, but the uncertainty has decreased. Some long - position holders chose to take profits, causing the precious metals market to decline under pressure. The recent economic "soft data" in the US, such as inflation expectations and consumer confidence, has significantly improved compared to the initial period of tariff announcements. As the overall tariff uncertainty has slowed down, countries are reaching agreements with the US through negotiation and compromise, leading to a continuous increase in market risk appetite. The VIX volatility index is at a low level, and the upward movement of gold prices has been continuously hindered [2]. - Driven by the strong performance in June (+$7.6 billion), global gold ETF holdings increased by $38 billion in the first half of 2025. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, the safe - haven investment demand for gold remains relatively stable. Whether core countries can reach an agreement with the US before the deadline is the key factor for the subsequent trend of gold prices. If the trade negotiations progress optimistically, gold prices may continue to be under pressure [2]. - The formal passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has intensified market concerns about the long - term fiscal problems of the US government, which may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, weaken the demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe - haven asset, and boost the monetary attribute of gold [2]. - In the case of silver, the global de - stocking cycle has led to a continuously tight supply - demand structure. Coupled with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve helping to repair its industrial attribute, silver prices are expected to remain resilient. There is still some room for the gold - silver ratio to repair, but short - term correction risks need to be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 766.82 yuan/gram, down 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 181,258 lots, an increase of 2,127 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai silver was 327,567 lots, a decrease of 10,577 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 129,215 lots, a decrease of 10,912 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 94,543 lots, an increase of 3,196 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 21,585 kilograms, an increase of 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,320,909 kilograms, a decrease of 13,822 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 763.39 yuan/gram, down 8.49 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,864 yuan/kilogram, down 33 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.43 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.91 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 21 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 946.51 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,935.15 tons, an increase of 66.41 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 201,980 contracts, an increase of 6,976 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 63,400 contracts, an increase of 453 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.98%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 16%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.55%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.54%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he was planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. He would impose a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also called on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign immediately and said that a new study by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that tariffs had no impact on inflation [2]. - The UK will not be able to reach an agreement on steel and aluminum trade with the US this week, missing the July 9 deadline set by the White House, but is still expected to reach an agreement by the end of the month [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货, some enterprises' inventories increased slightly this week. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. In the Jiangsu mainstream storage areas,提货 was average, and the low operating loads of some major downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River led to an increase in inventories in the East China region. There were no foreign vessels arriving at the South China ports, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in a continued decline in inventories. Next week, the volume of visible foreign vessel arrivals will change little, but the overall downstream demand will remain weak, and port methanol inventories are expected to accumulate slightly. In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued their maintenance status, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week, and the Sinopec Zhongyuan olefins plant is planned to stop production this week, so the operating rate may continue to decline. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2390 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 711306 lots, an increase of 17008 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 95141 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8720, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan. The East - West price difference was 392.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 3 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 277 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 246 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 50.95 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; at South China ports, it was 16.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons. The methanol import profit was 13.89 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07 yuan; the monthly import volume was 129.23 million tons, an increase of 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 88.18%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 46.07%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points; of dimethyl ether, it was 5.19%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points; of acetic acid, it was 93.42%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points; of MTBE, it was 65.06%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; of olefins, it was 84.6%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 838 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 29.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.51%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 15.52%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a 1.31% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons from the previous period, an 8.29% decrease. As of July 9, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a 2.09% decrease from the previous period [2] Suggested Attention - Wednesday's Longzhong enterprise inventory and port inventory data [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PNBP policy implemented by the Indonesian government has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, the output has rebounded significantly, and the nickel - iron price has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Additionally, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure remaining, downstream players are adopting a wait - and - see, cautious and pessimistic attitude. The inventory reduction in the domestic market is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position is decreasing. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 95 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,656 lots, a daily decrease of 2,214 lots; the position of the main contract is 87,766 lots, a daily decrease of 2,472 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, a daily decrease of 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 100 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 95 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,150 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 950 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, a daily decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned potential tariffs on the EU and India, as well as high - tariff threats on pharmaceuticals and unspecified semiconductor tariffs [2]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped to a five - month low, and concerns about layoffs eased; China's June passenger car retail sales reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales increasing by 29.7% year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 in the short - term [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase in stockpiling, with the bonded warehouse maintaining inventory reduction and the general trade inventory increase narrowing. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing have decreased month - on - month, and the port's outbound rate has decreased month - on - month less than the inbound rate [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. This week, as enterprises gradually end maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 60; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,095 yuan/ton, with a change of 25; the 8 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 35. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 152,032 lots, a decrease of 835; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,278 lots, a decrease of 2,644 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 20,439, a decrease of 15; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,400, a decrease of 187. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,760 tons, a decrease of 30; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 35,583 tons, an increase of 1,311 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 4; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.52. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.3 [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, a decrease of 1.89; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, a decrease of 7.64. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.45 days, a decrease of 1.48; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.48 days, a decrease of 1.67 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.02%, a decrease of 0.07; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.68%, an increase of 0.05. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.63 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.85 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.12 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May and an increase of about 29% compared with the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with the cost side supporting the spot price. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increased inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and the firm cost side may provide some support for the cast aluminum price. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position is 250,099 lots, down 19,098 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 16,703 lots, up 2,441 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main contract position is 248,656 lots; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts are 8,225 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 8,571 lots, down 114 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina basis is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the alumina import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The primary aluminum import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons; the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons; the aluminum product production is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. - **Capacity and Utilization**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate is 97.68%, up 0.03% [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The automobile production is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 8.08%, down 1.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.10%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.28%, down 0.0041; the call - put ratio is 1.15, up 0.0349 [2]. Industry News - In June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 2.419 million and 2.084 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 18.1%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 1.2 million and 1.111 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 28.3% and 29.7% [2]. - From January to June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 13.246 million and 10.901 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.5% and 10.8%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 6.457 million and 5.468 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 38.7% and 33.3% [2].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply - side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand - side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the rising LME zinc premium and declining overseas inventory have driven up the domestic price. Technically, with reduced positions and cautious trading from both long and short sides, there is support at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.1%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.59%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 14.46%, down 0.5% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned that the tariff for some tax notices might be 60% or 70%. The US is dissatisfied with the EU's taxation and fines on US technology companies and may issue a tax notice to the EU. The Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US dropped to a five - month low in June, and concerns about layoffs eased. The China Passenger Car Association reported that China's passenger car retail sales in June reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales up 29.7% year - on - year [3].

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