Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter of 2025, the urea market showed complex trends. The price of urea futures and spot increased, production capacity and output expanded, demand was strong, and exports increased. In the future, the price trend will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, raw material prices, and macro - environment. The price may experience stages of rising to reduce inventory, short - term price cuts to reduce inventory, and then rising again, and finally face pressure due to high supply and low demand [6][9][21][48] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Quarterly Market Review - **Futures Price**: In the first quarter, the urea futures price rose from 1,650 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated with factors such as seasonal demand and compound fertilizer production. The peak trading volume of the main contract was 481,300 lots, and the peak open interest was 279,900 lots [6] - **Spot Price**: In January 2025, the urea price dropped to around the first quartile of the ten - year historical price (1,681 yuan/ton), and then rose steadily, approaching the second quartile (1,885 yuan/ton) [9] 2. Coal and Grain Price Review - **Coal Price**: In the first quarter, coal prices continued to weaken. The price of anthracite decreased from 1,040 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton, and the price of thermal coal decreased from 677 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The cost support for urea from coal weakened, but the production profit of urea recovered, with the gross profit margin of coal - based urea rising from - 3.16% to 8.3% [12] - **Grain Price**: In the first quarter, grain prices generally rebounded. The price of corn increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,194 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the price of wheat increased from 2,366 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton [16] 3. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - **Production Capacity**: In 2025, new (expanded) urea production capacity totaled 557 tons. Some projects such as Shaanxi Coal Chemical Industry, Gansu Liuhua, and Jiangsu Jinkong Hengsheng have been put into production [20] - **Output**: In the first quarter, the urea operating rate increased from 72.8% to 85.3%, and the average daily output was higher than that in 2024, currently maintaining at 19 - 200,000 tons. The total output from January to February was 1.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108,700 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [21] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 5.258 million mu compared with the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for agricultural fertilizers will gradually be released. March - April is the peak season for spring wheat green - turning fertilizers, followed by the peak season for high - nitrogen compound fertilizer production [26] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - **Compound Fertilizer**: From January to March 2025, the compound fertilizer operating rate showed seasonal changes, reaching a peak of 57.75% at the end of February. The output from January to February was 690,000 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 586,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises is currently at 500,000 - 600,000 tons [31] - **Industrial Demand**: The supply of vehicle urea is sufficient, but the demand is limited due to the impact of new energy and natural gas vehicles. The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores decreased in the first quarter, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved slightly. The production of melamine from January to February was 249,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 tons. The demand for urea desulfurization and denitrification in thermal power generation is stable, but the demand for inventory is small [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to February 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 4.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 million tons, an increase of 56%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 2.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 777,000 tons, an increase of 39.78%. The export volume of urea decreased by 81.08% year - on - year, while the export volume of ammonium sulfate increased by 39.15% year - on - year [38] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - The urea enterprise inventory is at the level of 1 million tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Shanxi. The port inventory is 134,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts are 5,563, equivalent to 111,260 tons of urea. In 2025, the urea inventory reached a new high, and the inventory reduction is currently going smoothly [40] 8. Urea Market Outlook - **Internal Factors**: In the early stage before the peak season, due to high daily production and high inventory, the downstream was cautious in purchasing. However, with the release of spring plowing fertilizer demand, the price entered the stage of rising to reduce inventory. After early April, the strategy of rising to reduce inventory may be ineffective, and it may enter a short - term stage of price cuts to reduce inventory. From mid - April to May, the price is expected to be strong, and after the end of May, the price is expected to be under pressure [48] - **External Factors**: The global economic situation in 2025 is more uncertain. The domestic macro - policy and market sentiment have a close impact on commodities. The increase in grain prices requires a significant improvement in consumption, otherwise, the upward drive is weak [48] - **Key Points of Attention**: Urea production capacity release, urea plant shutdown for maintenance, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policy, coal price, and macro - environment [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook on the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market expectation for plastics is weak, with the plastics 2505 contract expected to fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to operate after the breakthrough direction is clear, with a cautious and bearish stance [4] - Cost - end factors such as OPEC+ production increase and the US tariff policy put pressure on future oil prices. The supply side has large pressure due to new capacity launches and reduced planned maintenance in April - May. The demand side shows that the agricultural film's operating rate is approaching its recent high, and the packaging film and pipe industries are expected to follow up. High inventory levels also exert pressure on prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On March 28, the closing price of the plastics 2505 contract was 7701 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price decline trend of plastics has eased. The average price of LDPE was 9666.67 yuan/ton (0% MoM), HDPE was 8402.50 yuan/ton (0% MoM), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 8073.53 yuan/ton (+0.52% MoM). The LLDPE South China basis was 372.53 yuan/ton (-1.12% MoM), and the May - September spread was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | Date | Value (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | 2025/3/28 | - 122 | +6 | | | 2025/3/21 | - 128 | | | 5 - 9 | 2025/3/28 | 82 | - 5 | | | 2025/3/21 | 87 | | | 9 - 1 | 2025/3/28 | 40 | - 1 | | | 2025/3/21 | 41 | | [13] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - The spot prices of different types of plastics (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions (Northeast, North, East, South, Central, Northwest, Southwest) showed different trends of increase and decrease [14][15] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $69.04 per barrel, up $0.75 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $72.54 per barrel, up $0.87 per barrel from the previous week. The anthracite price at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (-10). The oil - based cost support is expected to weaken, and the coal - based cost support is expected to change little [17] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 234 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1713 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous week. The oil - based PE profit is expected to be weak, and the coal - based PE profit is expected to remain stable [20] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production operating rate was 82.32%, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output reached 61.64 tons, up 2.27% MoM. The maintenance loss was 10.52 tons, down 0.75 tons from the previous week. In March, ExxonMobil (Huizhou), Inner Mongolia Baofeng, and Shandong New Era launched a total of 1.53 million tons of production capacity, and the planned maintenance in April - May is expected to decrease, resulting in large domestic supply pressure [24] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned new capacity of 5.43 million tons [26] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with different parking and restart times [27] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 40.70%, up 0.35% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 49.07%, up 3.70% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 30.50%, up 2.83% from the previous week. The peak season for plastic mulch in March continues, but the operating rate of agricultural films is expected to decline. The packaging film and pipe industries are gradually picking up [28] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 37.8%, with a difference of 0.8% from the annual average level. The proportion of low - pressure pipes is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.3%, with a difference of 2.2% from the annual average [32] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 63.03 tons, with a change of 1.94 tons compared to the previous week [34] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - On March 28, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 740 lots, down 3690 lots from the previous week [43]

氯碱周报： 供需边际改善 盘面低位震荡 2025-03-31 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 交易咨询号：Z0015756 01 核心观点总结 烧碱：出口边际好转 盘面低位震荡 01 p 本周回顾：截止周五，主力SH2505涨2.57%收于2596，山东32%液碱870（-90）元/吨，折百2719（-281）元/吨。 p 基本面情况： 目 录 01 烧碱：出口边际好转 盘面低位震荡 02 PVC：短期去库尚可 盘面低位震荡 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 1. 上游：利润尚可，关注液氯。截至3月27日，山东原盐保持260（-5）元/吨，山东液氯价格+50（-50）元/吨。山东氯碱企业周平均毛利在796 元/吨，较上周环比-9.55%。周内山东液碱价格基本下行，液氯价格上行，周内整体氯碱利润下行。 2. 供应：供应维持高位，关注检修情况。截至3月27日，中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业周度产能利用率83.3%（-1.2%），周损失量16.62万吨 （+15.02%），周产量79.31万吨（-2.66%）。下一周， ...

2025-03-31 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 需求疲弱，期价偏弱震荡 长江期货红枣月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 01 走势回顾：3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 02 供应端分析：供应宽松，库存高企 03 需求端分析：传统淡季，需求偏弱 04 逻辑与展望：偏弱震荡 目 录 05 01 走势回顾：3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 01 3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 数据来源：博易大师、上海钢联、长江期货 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、长江期货 Ø 截至3月28日，24/25年度红枣仓单为6614张，有效预报983张，合计7597张，较去年同期减少10723张， 受原料质量及交割要求的优化，今年仓单量处于相对低位水平，但从红枣供应层面来看，库存水平为近4年 来最高位。 Ø 3月成交量及持仓量有所下滑，但持仓量仍处于高位水平，随着新季红枣进入生长季，市场关注度增加，成 交量及持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price of apples is expected to strengthen, with future prices likely to be strong and showing an upward trend in oscillations [2][48] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Trend Review - In March, the center of gravity of apple futures shifted upward, with the price ranging from 7,000 to 7,800. The apple basis was 1 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan compared to the previous month [6][7] 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Main Producing Area Spot Prices**: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples were 3.50 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods were 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples were 1.80 - 2.10 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the prices of orchard - farmer general goods starting from 70 in the warehouse were 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, merchant goods were 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 70 high - grade inferior apples were 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin [15] - **Cold - Storage Inventory**: As of March 26, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 4.7182 million tons, a decrease of 287,900 tons compared to the previous week. Shandong's current inventory was 1.73 million tons, 513,300 tons less than the same period last year, and Shaanxi's current inventory was 1.672 million tons, 357,500 tons less than the same period last year [17][24] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Social Sales Data**: From January to February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate in December last year, in line with market expectations. Among the 16 commodity categories of units above the designated size, 14 categories had year - on - year positive growth in retail sales [27] - **Domestic CPI**: In February, the year - on - year growth rate of the domestic CPI was - 0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The CPI food item increased by - 3.3% year - on - year, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous value; the CPI non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [30] - **Sales Area Delivery Situation**: In the South China market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles in the Guangdong Chalong market increased week - on - week, with an average of about 42.25 vehicles per day during the week. The market was boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, and the arrival of goods remained high. The market was selling well, but high - price transactions were limited [34] - **Storage Merchant Profits**: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to the previous week [38] - **Related Fruit Market**: As of the 13th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.565 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg compared to the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, Ya pears, and Kyoho grapes increased week - on - week, while the average wholesale price of Fuji apples decreased by 0.06 yuan/kg [41] - **Market Sentiment**: The outbound of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas accelerated month - on - month. There was not much remaining orchard - farmer supply in the western region, and the trading shifted to merchant goods, with prices continuing to rise. There was a sentiment of bullishness and reluctance to sell among orchard farmers and merchants. In the sales areas, the number of arrival vehicles increased, the market delivery improved, and the market sentiment was mostly bullish [45] 4. Logic and Outlook - The current apple warehouse inventory in the country is significantly lower than last year, reaching a recent low. After the Spring Festival, consumption has increased year - on - year, and the shipment has accelerated. Before May, consumption can maintain a certain intensity, which will strengthen the impact of inventory reduction. It is expected that future prices will be strong, and attention should be paid to weather changes that may affect next year's production [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: On Thursday, the underlying assets showed a volatile upward trend. The Shanghai 50ETF representing large - cap stocks fluctuated sideways after a冲高回落 and closed above the intraday moving average, with the buying and selling forces basically balanced. The CSI 1000 representing small - cap stocks rebounded after hitting the bottom and closed near the intraday moving average, also with balanced buying and selling forces. The Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had the largest intraday increase of 1.11%, while the CSI 1000 had the smallest increase of 0.22%. The rapid back - and - forth movement of the market on Thursday indicates market resilience and the presence of a supporting force, which is fundamentally different from the market situation before September last year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a rapid recovery on Wednesday, the yields of spot bonds at various tenors retreated on Thursday morning. This was due to large - scale net withdrawals during the quarter - end and the fact that yields reached the previous intensive lock - in area after the rapid recovery, leading to many short - term profit - taking trades. However, the overall retracement of spot bonds was not significant. There were still no substantial positive or negative factors throughout the day. The main cause of market fluctuations was institutional concentrated profit - taking due to the overly steep yield recovery slope. Currently, all factors are still favorable for the bond market, but the short - term market odds are insufficient, making institutional behavior more short - term and more sensitive to both positive and negative news, which amplifies the two - way intraday market fluctuations [4]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The market is in a wide - range oscillation, and the short - term style is suitable for IH [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: For allocation, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being; for trading, one can do band trading [5]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 0.21%, the futures of the Shanghai 50 index main contract rose 0.46%, the futures of the CSI 500 index main contract rose 0.22%, and the futures of the CSI 1000 index main contract rose 0.01% [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.12%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [10]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The T continuous main contract closed above the 5 - day moving average [11]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 300 Continuous Main | 3,904.60 | 0.21 | 56,873 | 156,732 | | 2025/03/27 | Shanghai 50 Continuous Main | 2,690.60 | 0.46 | 30,381 | 55,492 | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 500 Continuous Main | 5,922.20 | 0.22 | 52,431 | 75,832 | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Main | 6,143.40 | 0.01 | 151,417 | 167,954 | | 2025/03/27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 107.89 | - 0.01 | 65,109 | 172,454 | | 2025/03/27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 105.64 | - 0.04 | 42,270 | 155,661 | | 2025/03/27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 116.32 | - 0.12 | 104,678 | 99,307 | | 2025/03/27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 102.43 | - 0.01 | 28,220 | 94,551 | [13]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 27 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5129 元/吨（+11），常州市场价 4920 元/吨（0），主力基差-209 元/吨（-11），广州市场价 5050 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4970 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4-5 月检存有春检预期，内需季节性恢复，出口以价换量持稳状 态，目前估值中性，预计 PVC 反弹空间有限，关注宏观和黑色板块带动。 后期关注新增投产进度、春检落地情况、下游复工以及出口情况等，政 策端关注国内货币、财政、能耗等政策情况，以及美联储降息、特朗普 政策变化等。 ◆ 烧碱： 近日盘面相对弱势，主要是 05 终点预期转弱，多头接货成本高压制，液 氯价格上涨对烧碱形成压制。3 月 27 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to add long positions on dips; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly; gold and silver are expected to fluctuate [1][11][13][15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC is expected to fluctuate; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate; urea and methanol are recommended for range - bound operations [1][20][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are recommended to hedge on rallies for the near - term contracts and short on rallies for the far - term contracts; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][28][30][31]. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international trade situations. For example, the macro - financial market is influenced by central bank policies and market sentiment; the black building materials market is affected by production, consumption, and international trade policies; the non - ferrous metals market is related to supply disruptions and demand expectations; the energy and chemical market is affected by supply - demand balances and cost factors; the cotton and textile industry chain is influenced by global supply - demand forecasts; and the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by production, consumption, and trade policies [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On Thursday, the underlying assets showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Shanghai 50ETF and the CSI 1000 had different intraday performances, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF having the largest intraday increase. The market shows resilience, and it is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a rapid recovery on Wednesday, the yields of spot bonds rebounded on Thursday morning. The main reasons were large - scale net withdrawals during the quarter - end and the fact that yields reached the previous intensive lock - in area. There are no substantial positive or negative factors, and the market is mainly affected by institutional profit - taking. It is recommended to take profits and wait [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The production and apparent consumption of rebar increased slightly, and the destocking speed accelerated. The macro - policy is in line with expectations, but the economic data from January to February is weak. The static valuation is at a neutral level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,130 - 3,300 [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The iron ore production increased, but the demand expectation is pessimistic. The发改委 mentioned the regulation of crude steel production, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has been alleviated. The price of coking coal may stabilize, and the price center of coke may gradually stabilize. Attention should be paid to factors such as blast furnace复产, import volume, and policy expectations [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US tariff policy and smelter maintenance affect the market. The downstream receiving willingness is weak, but the domestic inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and add on dips [11]. - **Aluminum**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The inventory has decreased. Affected by tariffs and policies, the aluminum price may have a callback. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000 [13]. - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - policies and nickel ore regulations, the supply of refined nickel is high, and the downstream stainless steel is weak. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The downstream trading is weak, and the supply of tin ore is tight. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The supply is expected to increase marginally. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase the high. The reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract is 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, economic data, and tariff policies, the market's expectation of an early interest - rate cut has increased. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase the high [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market, and the supply pressure is large. There is a spring - maintenance expectation from April to May, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to factors such as new production, maintenance, and downstream recovery [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The recent market is weak. The inventory is high, and the price of liquid chlorine suppresses the caustic - soda price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as delivery volume, non - aluminum demand, and inventory destocking [22]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price has increased, but it is not recommended to chase the high. The reference range for the 05 contract is 1,720 - 1,900 [23]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand is supported. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2,500 - 2,650. Attention should be paid to factors such as the macro - environment, production - device maintenance, and olefin start - up [23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased, and the spot market is weak. Although the demand has improved, the supply increase is fast, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [24]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast, the supply and demand have both increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market consumption is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Apples**: The main apple - producing areas have stable transactions, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate strongly [25]. - **PTA**: Affected by the international oil price and supply - demand factors, the PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,700 - 5,000 [27]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the near - term contracts are relatively strong. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [28][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply and demand have both increased, and the price is in a low - level shock. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and short on rallies for the 08 and 09 contracts [30]. - **Corn**: The short - term spot price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 5 - 7 positive spread opportunity [31]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory and supply. In the long - term, the import cost is expected to increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term, hold short positions in call options for the 07 contract, and go long lightly on dips for the m2509 contract [33]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, the domestic oil market shows a differentiated trend. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strong. In the medium - term, the oil price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contracts of palm oil and soybean oil, pay attention to the 9,300 pressure level for rapeseed oil, and consider the strategy of expanding the spread for the 09 contracts of rapeseed oil and other oils [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the long - term due to strong demand and tight supply, but may experience short - term corrections. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is advisable to gradually go long as the price drops, while paying attention to market sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase high prices, while continuously monitoring the recovery of downstream demand [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE copper contract 05 dropped 1.03% to 81,560 yuan/ton. The US tariff measure on imported cars and parts is expected to suppress metal demand, causing the copper price to fall at night. The spread between Comex and LME has narrowed to around $1,400/ton. High copper prices have curbed downstream consumption, and the overall demand growth is limited. Although the long - term demand logic remains, short - term factors may lead to price corrections [1]. Aluminum - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract 05 rose 0.56% to 20,815 yuan/ton. The overall supply of ore is gradually improving, and the price is declining. Some alumina enterprises have cut production due to cost losses. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the demand side shows an increase in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. However, due to tariff policies, the aluminum price may still have room for correction [2][3]. Nickel - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract 05 dropped 0.05% to 130,030 yuan/ton. Macro factors increase the risk of stagflation in the US. Policy changes in the nickel ore market have an impact on prices, but the support may weaken. The supply of refined nickel remains high, and the downstream stainless steel market is weak, suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. Tin - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE tin contract 05 rose 0.82% to 281,390 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production decreased slightly in February, and the import of tin concentrates decreased year - on - year. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. However, the supply is expected to increase marginally, leading to greater price fluctuations [6]. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Spot copper market trading is inactive, with holders maintaining high prices, and terminal demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [7]. - Aluminum: The spot aluminum market has a lukewarm trading atmosphere, with holders selling actively at high prices, and downstream procurement being weak [8]. - Alumina: The demand for spot alumina at low prices has decreased, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are cautious, resulting in low - level trading [9]. - Zinc: The spot zinc market has light trading, with holders insisting on high prices and downstream procurement being cautious [10][11]. - Lead: The spot lead market has relatively stable transactions, with downstream businesses purchasing according to needs [12][13]. - Nickel: The overall activity in the spot nickel market is low, with most participants remaining on the sidelines [14][15]. - Tin: The downstream of the spot tin market maintains rigid - need procurement [16]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead and tin futures warehouse receipts increased [18]. - LME: Copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, while tin and nickel inventories increased [18].

棉纺策略日报 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 棉纺团队 研究员： 洪润霞 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 ...