◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹 3260，环比前一日下跌 10 元/吨，基差 52（-9），钢联统计口径，螺纹钢产量、表观消费均小 幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期铁水产量仍有 回升空间，盘面原料价格走强。宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合 预期，不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改 善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税，据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出 的对等关税措施可能比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹 钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本，高于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，静态 估值处于中性水平；驱动方面，国内政策已经明朗、旺季需求强度仍处 于验证期、关税影响有待继续观察，预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注【3130-3300】。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 黑色产业日报 简要观点 周四，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强，铁水产量持续上升，带动盘面上涨。现货 方面，青岛港 PB 粉 788 元/湿吨（+8）。普氏 62%指数 104.55 美元/ 吨（+1.25），月均 102.36 美元/吨。PBF 基差 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-03-28 公司资质 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 28 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.4 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.3-14.7 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.2-15.8 元 /公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。月底月初企业控量操作，但 肥标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终 端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压，不过猪价跌至 14 元/公斤 附近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入 库，均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品 入库介入情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 二季度供应同比增加，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱 格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻 品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡 区间上限，供应压力仍 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹 3270，环比前一日下跌 10 元/吨，基差 61（+1），昨日钢谷、找钢-兰格统计口径，螺纹钢表 观消费均出现了环比下滑，市场开始担忧需求见顶，继续关注周四钢联 供需数据。宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期，不过 1-2 月经 济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税，据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出的对等关税措施可能 比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉 平电成本，高于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，静态估值处于中性水平； 驱动方面，国内政策已经明朗、旺季需求强度仍处于验证期、关税影响 有待继续观察，预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注【3130- 3300】。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 咨询电话：027-65777100 从业编号：F03090752 投资咨询编号：Z0019837 联系人 周三，铁矿期货价格震荡运行，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, with iron ore showing a slightly weaker trend [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips in a stepped manner, nickel for waiting and watching or short - selling on rallies, tin for taking partial profits on previous long positions, and silver and gold for building positions on dips [1][12][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is for range - bound operation; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][20][22][25][27]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate, apples to strengthen with fluctuations, and PTA to fluctuate weakly [1][26][27]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended for short - selling on rallies in the far - term, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soymeal is recommended for cautious long - positions in the short - term and long - positions in the far - term, and oils are for range - bound operation [1][28][32][34][35]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as A - share earnings announcements, Trump's tariff policies, and Fed's interest - rate decisions. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external policy impacts [5][12][18]. - In the short term, most products are in a state of fluctuation, and investors need to pay attention to market sentiment, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. In the long term, factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and trade policies will continue to affect product prices [7][24][39]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With A - shares entering the earnings announcement period and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, market risk appetite may fluctuate. IC and IM may offer better entry opportunities after a moderate correction [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: There is a lack of short - term negative news in the bond market, and bulls are dominant. However, pay attention to the profit - taking pressure caused by overly consistent market expectations [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the peak of demand, and the impact of policies and tariffs needs further observation. The short - term range for RB2505 is [3130 - 3300] [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by steel production restrictions and macro - economic factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually alleviated, and the price may stabilize. The coke market's supply - demand contradiction has also eased, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand and steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price may fluctuate at a high level. Although there is a risk of a high - level correction, it is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand situation is complex. With the impact of policies and tariffs, the price may have room for correction. It is recommended to buy on dips in a stepped manner [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to wait and watch or short - sell on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is expected to increase marginally, and the demand may be supported by the recovery of the semiconductor industry. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [16]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and Trump's tariff policy, it is recommended to build positions on dips [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. Although there are expectations of spring maintenance and seasonal recovery in demand, the rebound space is limited [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The current inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Urea**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price may be under pressure in the medium term [23][24]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand has some support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the demand has improved, the supply has increased rapidly, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [25]. - **PTA**: It follows the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The short - term is affected by factors such as the restart of maintenance devices and the slowdown of inventory accumulation [27]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market consumption is not strong, but the acceptance of low prices is high, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Apples**: The出库 is good, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to strengthen with fluctuations [26]. - **PTA**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and is in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the long - term supply is abundant. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply and demand increase simultaneously, and the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the near - term and short - sell in the far - term [31][32]. - **Corn**: The short - term lacks new positive drivers, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to buy on dips [32]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term is affected by South American bumper harvests and shows a weak trend, while the long - term price has support. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and long - position lightly in the long - term [34]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, the trends are further differentiated, and in the medium - term, there is a high possibility of a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to the pressure level for rapeseed oil, and conduct arbitrage operations [35][39][40].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 27 日辽宁现货 14.3-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.4-16 元/ 公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。月底月初企业控量操作，但肥 标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端 消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压，不过猪价跌至 14 元/公斤附 近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库， 均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品入库 介入情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性 能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，二季 度供应同比增加，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局 下，猪价下跌风险加剧，向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入 库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡区间 上限，供应压力仍大，远期价格承压。策略上，期货贴水反映弱势预期，短 期供应压力后 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - As A-shares are about to enter the earnings report period and there is uncertainty regarding the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, market risk appetite may experience periodic fluctuations. Although there may be short-term corrections, this will not change the long-term development trend of the market. IC and IM may offer better entry opportunities after moderate corrections [1]. - Recently, the bond market lacks negative factors, while there are relatively more positive news. In the short term, attention should be paid to the profit-taking pressure that may result from overly consistent market expectations. However, before clear fundamental signals emerge, overall, the bulls still hold the upper hand [3]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [4]. Group 4: Market Review - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 Index fell 0.26%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 Index rose 0.10%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.42% [6]. - The 10-year main contract rose 0.27%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.63%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.09% [9]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5-day moving average [7]. - The T continuous contract closed above the 5-day moving average [10]. Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,891.80 | -0.26 | 45,817 | 154,083 | | 2025/03/26 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,676.00 | -0.50 | 22,285 | 50,488 | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,895.80 | 0.10 | 46,238 | 71,729 | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,129.40 | 0.42 | 123,686 | 155,502 | | 2025/03/26 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.00 | 0.27 | 68,604 | 175,285 | | 2025/03/26 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | 0.18 | 50,567 | 153,356 | | 2025/03/26 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.77 | 0.63 | 102,815 | 100,975 | | 2025/03/26 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.09 | 37,430 | 95,653 | [12]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：区间震荡 全球新年度产量目前预期波动幅度较小，国内供应并不特别宽裕，或有 略微紧张趋向，目前最大的变数是在国内宏观刺激政策的落地，国内经 济提振消费是否变好，中美贸易壁垒对出口担忧形成博弈，特朗普上台， 美国对华关税再度增加，累计加征 20%关税，不利于出口，影响经济， 后续关税影响存在长期性和不确定性，市场谨慎心态或持续，国内进入 金三银四传统消费旺季，冲淡了下游对原料的备货信心，前期国内 3 月两会召开，市场信心有所提振，短中期底部空间有限，后市来看，美 联储在利率政策上面是否存在变数，总体市场担忧仍存，总体在供需偏 紧基本面及中美关税加征背景下，期价维持区间震荡运行，等待反弹机 会。企业在风险管理策略方面，采取合适的期货和期权策略进行规避风 险。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡调整 现货方面，PTA 现货价格+45 在 4905 元/吨，现货基差+7 在 05 合于 贴水 5 元，成本端有支撑，现货供应稳定，主港交割及仓单报盘 05 平 水-贴水 5、10-15，递盘 05 贴水 10 附近，4 月中下主港交割报 05 升 水 10-15，递盘 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 报道称特朗普考虑出台"两步走"关税计划。抢在"4 月 2 日"前，英国、 印度考虑降低对美税收，"讨好"特朗普。股指成交量下滑，市场流动性与 风偏回落，股指或震荡运行，IF 震荡偏强，IM 震荡偏弱。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 周二，市场围绕资金面呈现窄幅震荡。从驱动市场的因素来看，季末前的供 给问题已被市场逐步消化，同时当前处于数据发布的真空期，且权益市场在 下月初关税落地之前难以形成单边上涨的趋势，这些因素总体上对债市较为 有利。然而，今年以来，资金利率中枢一直是投资者心中的一道障碍，使得 短期利率无法打开下行的空间，并限制了市场对长期利率的预期。资金方面 的不确定性导致市场从之前的乐观状态转变为相对审慎的态度，债券收益率 可能继续在相对较窄的区间内波动。 ◆ 策略建议： 止盈观望。 2025-03-26 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 联系人： 彭博 咨询电话：(027) 65777169 从业编号：F3080600 1 / 8 研究咨询部 股指 ◆ 市场回顾： 研究员： 张志恒 ...

◆ 铜： 截至 3 月 25 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约上涨 1.17%至 81910 元/吨。美 关税政策对市场的影响延续，3 月 25 日晚间 Comex 铜期货价格飙升至 历史新高，交易员开始将美国总统特朗普可能对铜加征高额进口关税的 预期计入价格中，贸易商正将铜大量转运至美国。冶炼企业检修减产牵 动市场的神经，但暂无后续供给端的消息出来。随着铜价持续上涨，下 游接货意愿减弱，现货升水周尾有所承压。消费表现一般，但由于国内 部分冶炼厂仍积极出口，国内库存维持去库趋势，不过幅度有所放缓。 宏观因素搅动全球供需格局，未来几周预计将有 10 万-15 万吨精炼铜的 运抵美国，到时市场或面临套利压力。高铜价下国内市场需求释放仍显 迟缓，连续拉涨后铜价存在高位回调的风险，但传统消费旺季即将来临， 而铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面临较大的原料保供和保本压力，排 产仍有降低的可能性，铜价整体易涨难跌。技术上看，沪铜主力合约维 持上涨趋势，但存回调迹象。建议多单逢高减仓，不追高，回调补仓。 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铝： 截至 3 月 25 日收盘，沪铝主力 05 合约上涨 0.02%至 20705 元/吨。整 体 ...