市场震荡波折，关注IH、IF 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/04/01 【长江期货| 研究咨询部】 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 Z0021210 咨询电话：027-65777177 联系人：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 咨询电话：027-65777169 投资策略：市场震荡波折，关注IH、IF 主要逻辑 行情回顾：全球宏观格局正经历东升西降的叙事重构，这一结构性变迁持续主导着市场预期与风险偏好。需注意二季度市场将面 临多重变量交织：其一，经济复苏的节奏与弹性需观察政策传导实效，特别是 "两新两重" 投资与消费提振的协同效应；其二，年报 季业绩兑现与盈利预期修正可能引发风格再平衡；其三，全球流动性边际变化与地缘扰动仍存，或加剧资金跨境波动。 后市展望：国内权益市场的风险溢价中枢能否维持相对高位、资产价格中枢能否延续上移趋势，本质上取决于宏观基本面的修复 进程能否有效承接前期科技板块的估值扩张动能。就市场运行结构而言，板块间的分化将成为中期维度的重要特征。考虑到盈利脉冲 式修复尚未形成趋势性支撑，市场对企业经营质量的重估将更多聚焦于业绩确定性 ...

长江期货PTA月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-1 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 数据来源：隆众资讯、博易大师、长江期货 01 行情回顾-3月PTA先跌后涨 n 3月PTA期货主力合约期价先跌后涨，主要 受国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初， 受国际油价持续走低影响，成本支撑减弱， PTA期价下行；月中，恒力石化、仪征化纤 以及海伦石化如期检修，国内供应大幅萎缩， 虽然成本支撑不足，但随着市场供需去库， PTA加工费好转，较低的价格吸引部分下游 企业开始备货；下旬，一方面国际外围市场 宏观变化，中东地缘因素再起，成本端油价 低位反弹，上游PX装置逐步开始春检，而下 游聚酯需求逐步回升，供需转好之下PTA价 格开始回升。 去库延续，区间震荡 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 02 供应方面：减产降负，供 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格弱势下跌，杭州中天螺纹 3210，环比前一日下跌 40 元/吨，基差 51（-2）。产业方面，钢联统计口径，上周螺纹钢产量、 表观消费均小幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期 铁水产量仍有回升空间；宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期， 不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国 外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价 格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值处于中性偏低水平；驱动方面，上 半年需求峰值仍处于验证期、关税影响及国内应对措施有待继续观察， 预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注 3100 附近支撑。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 张佩云 ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格震荡偏弱。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 774 元/湿吨（- 10）。普氏 62%指数 104.55 美元/吨（0），月均 102.43 美元/吨。PBF 基差 45 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,647.8 万 吨，环+132.7。45 港口+247 钢厂总库 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 白宫：特朗普将于 4 月 2 日决定最终关税政策，对等关税计划不会包含任何 豁免条款，对股市所受关税计划影响"不以为然"。中国 3 月官方制造业 PMI 50.5，制造业扩张速度一年来最快。东部战区组织陆海空火等兵力位台岛周 边开展联合演训，检验联合作战实战能力。关税扰动临近，演训或短期提振 市场情绪，叠加财报季市场或更关注基本面现实，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债市多空交织，跨季之后，机构卖债行为对债市的压制作用有望得到一 定程度的缓解。由于 3 月份是财政支出规模较大的月份，财政资金可能会对 4 月初的资金面形成一定的支撑。若二季度国债单期发行规模较大且发行较 为密集，可能会对市场造成一定的扰动，特别是需要关注中长债发行日之前 的几个交易日，机构可能会提前调仓来应对。从短期来看，债市已经摆脱了 此前由利空因素主导的局面，但市场走势可能会较为反复，不同期限和券种 的表现分化较为明显，整体而言，做多债市的赔率尚未出现明显的提升。 ◆ 策略建议： 适时止盈。 研究咨询部 2025-04-01 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 31 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5151 元/吨（-39），常州市场价 4890 元/吨（-30），主力基差-261 元/吨（+9），广州市场价 5050 元/吨（-30）， 杭州市场价 4950 元/吨（-20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。目前检修不多，4 月中旬开始环比有增多同比偏少，出口以价换 量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复；估值中性，基本面驱动有限，金融属性 强于商品属性，跟随大盘波动，预计 PVC 低位震荡偏弱运行，上方关注 5200 压力。后期关注新增投产进度、春检落地情况、下游复工以及出口 情况等，政策端关注国内货币、财政、能耗等政策情况，以及美联储降 息、特朗普政策关税等。 ◆ 烧碱： 3 月 31 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2512 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 4 月 1 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-15.2 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 14.8-15.4 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。目前行业养殖利润仍存， 短期规模场多控重出猪均摊生产成本，且肥标价差虽缩窄但仍处高位，养殖 端降重出猪意愿不足，二育低位入场积极性较好，以及屠宰库存偏低，猪价 低位也会考虑冻品入库，叠加清明节和五一假期，需求或小幅增加，均支撑 价格。不过价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端消 费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压 短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡 整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母 猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据和存栏结构，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔 猪同比增加，2 月中大猪存栏占比增长，二季度出 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the evening of March 27, the US government asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy. The preliminary agreement on increasing the total biofuel blending volume is expected to boost the future biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. This event led to a significant increase in US soybean oil and domestic oils and fats [1][5]. - The meeting participants basically agreed to significantly increase the biofuel blending requirements. The current EPA - regulated total blending volume of biodiesel + renewable diesel in 2025 is 3.35 billion gallons, and the discussed blending range is between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, corresponding to an incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons. This is very beneficial for the long - term biodiesel demand of US soybean oil [2][5]. - In the short term, this news will stimulate the collective rebound of domestic oils and fats by boosting the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil will perform the strongest, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be less affected. In the long term, if the EPA raises the biofuel blending volume, it will support the prices of US soybean oil and the overall oils and fats market, but the actual support depends on the specific policy terms [3][20]. Summary by Related Content Impact on US Biofuel Policy and Demand - Before this event, the market was pessimistic about the US biodiesel policy in the Trump era. But now, the expectation is shaken as the meeting participants agreed to increase the blending requirements. The incremental blending volume of 1.4 - 2.15 billion gallons will significantly boost the biodiesel demand for various vegetable oils [5][6]. - There are uncertainties in the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, including limited raw material supply and pressing capacity, disputes over small refinery RFS exemptions, and the absence of tax credit policies [2][15]. Impact on Different Raw Materials - Although the US biodiesel has diverse raw material sources, considering the 45Z Act and trade disputes, the increase in blending volume is most beneficial for the price of domestic raw material, i.e., US soybean oil [2][10]. - The incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons corresponds to an incremental soybean oil demand of 1.82 - 2.8 million tons. Considering the supply gap transfer, the data will be higher. The incremental soybean demand can be met through domestic soybean expansion, transfer of export demand to pressing demand, or imports, but each method has limitations [2][12][13]. Market Impact and Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, from April, the oils and fats market will face supply pressure, but there are also positive factors that will disturb the decline. Rapeseed oil will show relatively strong oscillations. In the long term, in the third quarter of 25/26, soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to lead the oils and fats market to stop falling and rebound [21]. - For trading strategies, the 05 contracts of soybean and palm oils are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7700 - 8200 and 8700 - 9200 respectively. It is recommended to operate within the ranges and pay attention to the inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean arrivals. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the pressure at 9300. For arbitrage, focus on the strategy of expanding the spreads of 09 contracts of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, double - coking are expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish on dips; aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strongly fluctuating; gold and silver are recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [1][11][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range trading; soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][20][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner; PTA is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][26][27] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to be weakly fluctuating; eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is weakly fluctuating, with different strategies for different contracts; oils are expected to trade in a range [1][31][34] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Trump's tariff policy, Fed's interest - rate policy, and economic data. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand relationships and cost factors [5][11][17] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors like Trump's global tax plan, large - scale financing by state - owned banks, and upcoming PMI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With sufficient capital supply but high short - term interest rates, and the upcoming PMI data, it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner and wait for further fundamental signals [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With slightly increased production, consumption, and faster destocking, and considering domestic policies, demand verification, and tariff impacts, the price is expected to fluctuate, with the RB2505 contract focusing on the range of 3100 - 3300 [6] - **Iron Ore**: With increased supply and limited subsequent production growth, and considering tariff policies, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [6][7] - **Double - Coking**: For coking coal, supply is gradually increasing, and demand is marginally recovering. For coke, supply and demand contradictions are alleviated, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by tariff policies and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices and replenish on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: With increased production capacity and demand, and considering tariff impacts, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000 [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors and nickel - related policies, it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [13][14] - **Tin**: With supply and demand changes, it is expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not chase highs, with the reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 05 contract [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by economic data, tariff policies, and market sentiment, it is recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, high supply pressure, and limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with the upper resistance at 5200 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and limited upward drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [23] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply and stable demand, and considering inventory changes, it is recommended for range trading, with the 05 contract reference range of 1720 - 1900 [23][24] - **Methanol**: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and certain downstream demand support, it is expected to trade in the range of 2500 - 2650 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and relatively slow demand improvement, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to hold short call options [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With weak market consumption, they are expected to fluctuate [26] - **Apples**: With good inventory clearance and low inventory, the price is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [26] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and processing fees, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27][28] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and limited terminal consumption, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][31] - **Eggs**: With increasing supply and demand in the short - term and increasing supply pressure in the long - term, the 05 contract is recommended to hedge on rebounds, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted [30][31] - **Corn**: With reduced selling pressure and tightened supply - demand in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, with the 05 contract focusing on the support range of 2250 - 2270 [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: With short - term weak performance and long - term cost support, different strategies are recommended for different contracts [33][34] - **Oils**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price rebound, different contracts are recommended for range trading and spread trading [34][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market in March showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The early decline was affected by high inventory and real - estate new construction data, followed by an obvious upward trend due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March with 2 cold - repairs and 1 new ignition. The national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Strong Sales and Bottom Rebound - **Price Changes**: As of March 28, the spot price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1,250 yuan/ton (+10), in Central China was 1,150 yuan/ton (0), and in East China was 1,360 yuan/ton (0). The glass 05 contract closed at 1,197 yuan/ton last Friday, up 24 yuan for the week. The 05 - 09 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (+8), and the 05 contract basis was - 37 yuan/ton (-14) [14][18]. - **Soda - Glass Spread**: As of March 28, the soda futures price was 1,393 yuan/ton, the glass futures price was 1,197 yuan/ton, and the spread between them was 196 yuan/ton (-41) [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Drop and Weak Real Estate - **Import and Export**: In December last year, China's float glass imports were 271,100 weight - boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 48%), and exports were 1.12 million weight - boxes (a year - on - year increase of 157%). In February, imports decreased compared with the same period last year, but exports increased [22]. - **Profit**: The natural gas - made process cost was 1,626 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 266 yuan/ton (+2); the coal - gas - made process cost was 1,195 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of 55 yuan/ton (+6); the petroleum - coke - made process cost was 1,171 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 21 yuan/ton (+2) [28]. - **Supply**: Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,655 tons/day (-500). In March, 2 production lines were cold - repaired and 1 was newly ignited [30]. - **Inventory**: As of March 28, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67.012 million weight - boxes (-2.448 million). The inventory in North China, Central China, East China, South China, Southwest China, Shahe, and Hubei all decreased [37]. - **Deep - Processing**: Last week, the national average sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 122.13% (+5.8%). On March 28, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 40.52% (-0.99%). In mid - March, the order days of glass deep - processing were 8 days (+1.2) [43][44][45]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In February, China's automobile production was 2.103 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 347,000 and a year - on - year increase of 597,000), and sales were 2.129 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 294,000 and a year - on - year increase of 545,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars was 686,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8% [52]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In February, China's real - estate completion area was 87.6421 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 16%), new construction area was 66.1394 million square meters (-30%), construction area was 6.0597235 billion square meters (-9%), and commercial housing sales area was 107.459 million square meters (-5%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: As of March 28, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,600 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,550 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,525 yuan/ton (-25), and in South China was 1,675 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2505 contract closed at 1,393 yuan/ton (-17) last Friday, and the Central China basis was 132 yuan/ton (-8) [64]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,530 yuan/ton (-88), with a gross profit of 0 yuan/ton (+52); the cost of the co - production method was 1,980 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 211 yuan/ton (-48) [65]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Inventory**: Last week, the national soda ash production was 690,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 37,900), including 369,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 21,500) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 16,400). The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.63 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 57,800) [82]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 422,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 27,100), and for light soda ash was 326,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,200). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.86% (a week - on - week increase of 1.88%) [85]. 3.3 Investment Strategy: Uncertain Demand, Short May and Long September - **Main Logic**: The glass futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising in March. The previous decline was due to high inventory and poor real - estate new construction data, and then the market rose due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March, and the national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. - **Operation Strategy**: Short the May contract and go long on the September contract [2][4][88].