长江期货贵金属周报 2025/12/29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 美国第三季度GDP超预期增长，流动性支撑，黄金价格 上涨。截至上周五，美黄金报收4562美元/盎司，周内 上涨4.4%，关注上方压力位4620，下方支撑位4500。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, prices are expected to be strong in the near - term due to de - stocking expectations and cost support, but the upside is limited. The 03 contract is likely to perform strongly, while the 05 contract may be weak under the background of South American bumper harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness will continue [7]. - In the oils market, in the short term, domestic three major oils have bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. In the long run, with the intensification of Malaysia's production cuts, India's pre - Ramadan stocking, the advancement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, and the implementation of the US biofuel policy in the first quarter of 2026, it will help the three major oils to bottom out and strengthen again [73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of December 26, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. Brazil's production is 175 million tons, while the US and Argentina's production decreases year - on - year. In China, the 2025/26 soybean import volume is expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. From December to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and soybeans and soybean meal will enter the de - stocking cycle. From April to September, domestic soybean arrivals will remain high at over 9 million tons [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - Current soybean meal demand remains high. Pig and poultry inventories are at a high level, and the good cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand. In the 51st week of 2025, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.2236 million tons, a decrease of 171,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.32%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.66% [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it will rise to 2760 yuan/ton. The domestic import cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of December 26, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 276 yuan/ton to 8568 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 124 yuan/ton to 7836 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 302 yuan/ton to 9046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also increased, and the basis of each oil showed different changes [74][76]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In Malaysia, from December 1 - 25, palm oil exports increased, and production decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation in December will be less than previously estimated, but it is still difficult to start de - stocking. In China, palm oil purchases from December to January are relatively small, and the market demand is average, limiting the de - stocking speed. As of the week of December 19, domestic palm oil inventory rebounded to 700,000 tons [74]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - In the US, although there are reports of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, the actual purchase volume announced by USDA is much lower. In South America, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The US soybean futures price is under pressure, but it is limited by the planting cost and potential bio - diesel policies. In China, soybean arrivals have decreased seasonally since October, and soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.1235 million tons as of the week of December 19 [74]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil market shows a state of strong current situation and weak future expectations. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are at a medium - level. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed is expected to be pressed in January 2026, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. As of the week of December 19, domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The destocking of polyolefins is insufficient, and there is significant upward pressure. The downstream has entered the off - season, with overall开工 declining. Although the cost of crude oil has rebounded slightly, the profit of oil - based olefins has been compressed. The supply pressure is large, and the destocking is insufficient. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with support at 6300, the PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with support at 6200, and the LP spread is expected to narrow [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic 3.1. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The average price of LDPE was 8466.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%. The average price of HDPE was 6800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6480.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 15.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 94.54%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28) [12]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 31 yuan/ton (+16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 107 yuan/ton (+12) [17]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes of various plastic products in different regions [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 389 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 493 tons of production capacity has been put into operation or is about to be put into operation [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have HDPE, LDPE and other device maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 43.86%, a decrease of 1.32% from last week. The start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.22%, a decrease of 0.74% from last weekend. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.67%, a decrease of 0.33% from last weekend [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 36.2%, with a difference of 0.6% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 7.7%, with a difference of 0.9% from the annual average level [39]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.15 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.60% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11265 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from last week [46]. PP 3.3. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6292 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% [50]. 3.4. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The report provides the prices and price changes of PP - related products and some downstream products [52][54]. - **Basis**: On December 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6153.33 yuan/ton (- 1.60%). The PP basis closed at - 139 yuan/ton (- 179), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33) [56]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+2), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (+31) [61]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.41 yuan/ton from last weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44 yuan/ton from last weekend [71]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [74]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have PP production line maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 53.24% (- 0.56). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.26%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.36% (- 0.14%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.73% (- 2.34%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 318.03 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The export profit was - 1.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.33 tons (- 0.84%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 1.02% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.60% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 1.78% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14905 lots, an increase of 3971 lots from last week [95].

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需阶段性错配，期价反弹承压 u 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 2025-12-29 u 期现端：截至12月26日，全国现货价格11.52元/公斤，较上周跌0.05元/公斤；河南猪价11.82元/公斤，较上周涨0.12元/公斤；生猪2503收至11645元/吨，较上周涨320元/吨；03合 约基差175元/吨，较上周跌200元/吨。周度生猪价格先跌后涨，窄幅震荡。周前期因为冬至备货结束后需求回落，养殖端出栏节奏加快，导致价格偏弱，后半段因肥标价差走扩， 二育介入和养殖端惜售带动价格反弹。期货主力03因估值偏低，在宏观情绪推升下偏强震荡，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升，在疫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating widely in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton. The increase in urea maintenance devices has led to a decrease in daily output and a reduction in supply. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, mainly for reserve procurement, while the increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. The port inventory has started to accumulate again, but the accumulation rate is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices rose. On December 26, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.24% increase. The highest price during the period was 1743 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1694 yuan/ton. The average daily price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1693 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.01% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On December 26, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 42 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 47) - (- 24) yuan/ton [3][6]. - The increase of the urea 05 contract was relatively large, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On December 26, the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 68) - (- 49) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 81.6%, 1.09 percentage points lower than last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 56.27%, 1.53 percentage points lower than last week. The average daily urea output was 19.05 tons. Some devices in Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Anhui, Henan, Hubei, etc. resumed production, and the daily output first decreased and then increased [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market had average trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 25, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was 850 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price center 20 yuan/ton lower than the same period last week [3][13]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the increase in urea prices, the production profit of urea recovered slightly [13]. Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 98.4%. In terms of agricultural demand, most purchases were for reserves. In terms of industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer production capacity increased slightly, the operating load rate of melamine decreased, and overall production and sales were relatively stable [17][18]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.75%, 1.62 percentage points lower than last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.2 tons, an increase of 0.66 tons from last week. Winter storage was proceeding as planned, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production flexibly. The production and sales in Northeast China were fair [22]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 59.47%, 1.3 percentage points lower than last week, with a weekly output of 3.068 tons. Some devices of several enterprises had temporary shutdowns or maintenance, while some others resumed normal production. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support for the panel market strengthened [26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 88.3 tons, a decrease of 9.6 tons from last week. Urea port inventory was 29.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, equivalent to 21.5 tons, a decrease of 226 receipts (equivalent to 0.452 tons) from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Concern - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be moderately bullish with short - term fluctuations [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day. Although the supply - demand situation of glass has deteriorated in the medium - to - long - term, there are short - term speculative opportunities due to the planned shutdown of multiple glass production lines around New Year's Day and the mid - stream replenishment before the Spring Festival. Technically, the bulls slightly dominate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures rebounded slightly. With the clear cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month and the rumored shutdown plans in Hubei, the expectation of supply reduction was hyped, slightly pushing up the market. The demand for thin - plate glass from home appliance orders supports the market, but most manufacturers focus on collecting payments and are bearish on next year's market. Given the high supply pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass production capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The outlook is that glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day [3]. - The operating strategy is to be moderately bullish [4]. 3.2 Market Review - **Spot price**: As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,010 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The futures price of the glass 05 contract closed at 1,057 yuan/ton last Friday, up 16 yuan from the previous week [11]. - **Monthly spread**: As of December 26, the futures price of soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 1,057 yuan/ton, with a spread of 143 yuan/ton (+8). The basis of the glass 05 contract was - 37 yuan/ton (-36) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-6) [12][17]. 3.3 Profit - **Cost and profit of different processes**: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 392 yuan/ton (-10). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,162 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 152 yuan/ton (-19). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 27 yuan/ton (-20) [21]. - **Fuel prices**: On December 26, the industrial natural - gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US sulfur 3% shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 573 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 154,105 tons/day (-1,000) last Friday, with 218 production lines in operation. The fourth line of Dongguan Humen of Guangdong Xinyi with a capacity of 900 tons/day shut down last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,862.3 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1,086.2 million weight boxes (+41.2), in Central China was 704.5 million weight boxes (+19.5), in East China was 1,172.3 million weight boxes (-37), in South China was 770.5 million weight boxes (-26.8), in Southwest China was 1,190.7 million weight boxes (-6.5), the inventory in Shahe factories was 394 million weight boxes (+44), and in Hubei factories was 501 million weight boxes (+26) [27]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing were 9.7 days in mid - December (-0.4). The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 100% on December 25 (+11%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% on December 26 [31][34]. 3.7 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [40]. - **Real estate**: In November, China's real - estate completion area was 45.9293 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new - construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 3 to December 21, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.55 million m², a month - on - month increase of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The real - estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [45]. 3.8 Cost - end - Soda Ash - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,200 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 100 yuan/ton (-24) [51][52]. - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the soda - ash profit was - 21 yuan/ton (+21). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 57 yuan/ton (+9); the cost of the co - production method was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit [61]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,544 (a weekly increase of 12). The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons (a monthly decrease of 60,800 tons), including 703,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly decrease of 68,700 tons) and 735,500 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 7,900 tons) [65][68]. - **Apparent consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > hot - rolled coil > coke > iron ore > rebar. The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices, but the black sector was relatively weak [4]. - For steel products, the static valuation is neutral, and it is expected to run in a range with short - term trading recommended. For coal and coke, although the absolute inventory in the industry chain is not high, the market expectation is weak. For iron ore, there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment by steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices. The non - ferrous sector led, and many varieties in the energy and chemical sector rose by about 5%. The black sector was relatively weak [4][8] 03 Spot Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented [10] 04 Profit and Valuation - The rebar futures price has risen above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation. Steel mill profitability has stabilized [12][13] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production and demand were both weak, but inventory depletion was smooth, and short - term supply - demand contradictions were not significant. China implements export license management for steel, and there is an expectation of weakening steel exports [5][14] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, both port and steel mill iron ore inventories increased significantly. Iron ore shipments slightly declined from the high level, but arrivals are expected to remain high. Iron water production has stopped falling, and there is an expectation of steel mill resumption in January [5][23] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production declined, but Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and coking coal inventory increased significantly. The market expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage replenishment rhythm [5][28] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and coking plant profits are currently low. Last week, coke production remained stable month - on - month, but inventory increased again [5][30] 09 Variety Price Differences - The steel mill's on - paper profit fluctuated at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference widened [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The State Council executive meeting made arrangements for implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference. The DCE adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin. Other information includes international interest rate adjustments, economic data, and industry - related policies [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Team of the Industrial Service Headquarters - Researcher: Wang Guodong Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and the market anticipates an optimistic outlook for next year, leading to price increases in many non - ferrous metals, the spot discount has widened more than seasonally. It is not recommended to chase high prices before the holiday [3]. - The prices of domestic and imported bauxite are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is under pressure and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite prices in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. Domestic and imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina remains unchanged at 95.9 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to heavy pollution weather control [3][13]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons to 44.529 million tons week - on - week. New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity [3][22]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week. Overall demand is entering the off - season, and the high - level and volatile aluminum prices are suppressing downstream demand [3]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly during the week. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy has rebounded in Chongqing due to the lifting of environmental protection control, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday [4]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6][7]. 03. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult for many mines to resume production in the short term [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. The shipment volume of Guinea's ore has increased, and the spot supply of imported ore has increased, putting pressure on ore prices [10]. - The long - term contract price of Guinea's large - scale mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2025 [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, also with no week - on - week change. The operating rate was 83.6% [13]. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot decreased by 63.9 yuan/ton to 2,660.9 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons week - on - week. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to environmental protection factors, while enterprises in other regions maintain stable production [13]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to encourage mergers and reorganizations of large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises, which pushed alumina prices to the daily limit during the session [13]. 05. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [15][16][17][18]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.337 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.529 million tons, also an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week [22]. - In terms of capacity reduction and resumption, some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy have been shut down for technological transformation, involving a capacity of about 40,000 tons, and some aluminum plants in Xinjiang have reduced production due to environmental protection control [22]. - New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity, which will reach full production in 2026 [22]. 07. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai Aluminum, the prices of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [24]. 08. Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [26][27][28][29]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises has increased by 1% to 60.8% week - on - week. The lifting of environmental protection control in Chongqing has promoted the recovery of the operating rate, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [32]. 10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the prices of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [34][35][37][38]. 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises has decreased by 0.6% to 51% week - on - week. The demand for industrial profiles is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the operating rate of construction profiles has declined due to the off - season [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises has decreased by 1% to 64% week - on - week. Due to environmental protection and the off - season, some enterprises plan to slow down production and conduct equipment maintenance [42]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has decreased by 1.6% to 60.4% week - on - week. The continuous strengthening of environmental protection control in Henan Gongyi has restricted production capacity, and the grid order matching progress is slow [45]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises has decreased by 0.4% to 59.6% week - on - week. The high - level and volatile aluminum prices have suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises, and the overall operating rate has declined [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - oscillatory [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold long positions cautiously, hold light positions during holidays; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading; Lithium carbonate - range oscillation [1][10][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - range trading; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - weakly oscillatory [1][17][24] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillatory and slightly bullish; Apple - oscillatory; Jujube - oscillatory [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs - short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - 02 contract for breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, grain - holding entities hedge on rallies; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually, cautious on chasing highs [1][29][36] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, macro policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors all play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Some sectors are expected to have short - term trading opportunities, while others require long - term observation due to uncertainties [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, but may oscillate in the short - term due to factors like policy changes, industrial profit decline, and exchange - rate concerns [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate as previous driving factors fade, and there is a lack of significant positive drivers for a new trend [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between clear bearish realities and weak marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: With a neutral static valuation and stable expectations, short - term range trading is advised [7] - **Glass**: Although the long - term supply - demand situation is deteriorating, there may be short - term trading opportunities around the New Year. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Reached a record high recently, but there is a risk of short - term correction. Long - term bullish, but hold positions cautiously and lightly during holidays [10] - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak, but due to macro factors, it has rebounded. Strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Expected to be in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Observe or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Driven by factors such as GDP growth and Fed policies, they are expected to oscillate. Hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak fundamentals, low valuation, and concerns about export sustainability, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Under the pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", it is recommended to observe temporarily [19] - **Styrene**: Short - term range oscillation, with the need to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long - term [19] - **Rubber**: Due to the divergence between cost support and weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in a range [21] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are both decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [22] - **Methanol**: With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory [24] - **Polyolefins**: In a situation of strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and PP is expected to oscillate in a range [24] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus as the main pressure, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand adjustments and policy expectations, they are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [26] - **Apple and Jujube**: The market is relatively stable, and they are expected to oscillate [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The price is oscillating at the bottom. Short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, and cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [29][30] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract [31][33] - **Corn**: Short - term sell pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand will gradually recover. Hedge on rallies in the short - term [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade in a range, bullish on dips for near - month contracts and bearish for far - month contracts [35] - **Oils**: Short - term stop - falling and rebound, close long positions gradually [36][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The pressure of new cotton concentrated listing has subsided, and spot sales are relatively smooth. The market focuses on the reduction of next year's planting area and the expectation of stable consumption. With a stable spot market, market purchasing willingness is strong, and prices remain strong [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market mainly follows cotton prices. However, due to intense competition in the industrial chain and the decline in exports, it is expected that there will be greater pressure later. As cotton prices strengthen, yarn prices will also remain strong, but the pattern of compressed yarn profits is difficult to change [69]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review: Zhengzhou Cotton Fluctuated Strongly in December - In December, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The core reasons were the smooth spot sales this year, with the sales progress significantly higher than in previous years, and the large expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Yarn mainly followed the cotton trend, but spinning profits were compressed. The continued large - scale expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity exerted great pressure on the inland [8]. 3.2. Supply - Side Analysis: New - Season Global Supply - Demand Balance 3.2.1. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2024/25 season was basically stable; the adjustment in the 2025/26 season was also limited, with production, consumption, and imports and exports all reduced by 60,000 tons, and the final ending inventory increased by 10,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, harvesting in most production areas was basically completed, and some started planting for the 2026/27 season. Therefore, the production adjustment shrank significantly, and consumption and import - export trade also declined slightly [14]. 3.2.2. US Cotton - In 2025/26, the US planting area was 56.427 million mu, and the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, with the abandonment rate remaining unchanged at 20.7%. The expected yield per unit was 69.4 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the expected production was adjusted up to 3.106 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The expected consumption was 348,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%; the expected export volume was flat month - on - month. Based on this, the ending inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 980,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3. US Cotton Contracted Exports and Shipments - As of December 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - contracted to export 1.445 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 54.39% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 605,000 tons of cotton, with a shipment rate of 41.88%. Among them, the contracted volume of upland cotton was 1.402 million tons, and 577,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 41.16%. The contracted volume of Pima cotton was 42,000 tons, and 28,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 65.85%. China had cumulatively contracted to import 64,000 tons of US cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 4.42% of the contracted US cotton volume; and had cumulatively shipped 23,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 3.77% of the total US cotton shipments and 35.68% of China's contracted volume [21]. 3.2.4. India - According to the CAI's November supply - demand balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the expected production was 5.262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons; the expected import was 850,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons. On the demand side, the expected consumption was 5.015 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons; the expected export was 306,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons. Based on this, India's ending cotton inventory increased to 1.821 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [24]. 3.2.5. Brazil - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be adjusted up to 2.17 million hectares (32.55 million mu), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%; the expected yield per unit was adjusted up to 130.5 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; so the expected total production was adjusted up to 4.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. In 2026, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be 2.05 million hectares (30.75 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the expected yield per unit was 124.4 kg/mu, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; so the expected total production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, at the second - highest level in the past five years [25]. 3.2.6. China - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory remained stable at 6.16 million tons. In terms of production, although the yield per unit in southern Xinjiang decreased locally, the total production still increased due to the increase in area, and the national total production was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. In terms of imports, it was expected to remain unchanged at 1.2 million tons. According to the above situation, the annual total supply was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 15.04 million tons. In terms of total demand, new orders from textile enterprises decreased slightly in November, but the market was "not in a slack season", the overall sales - to - production ratio and finished - product inventory remained stable, the operating rate remained at a relatively high level and was resilient, the cumulative cotton consumption in the new season increased year - on - year, and the annual textile cotton consumption was expected to be adjusted up by 130,000 tons to 8.21 million tons. The total demand increased by 130,000 tons to 8.58 million tons [30]. 3.2.7. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of November, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises showed a steady - to - increasing trend. As of the end of November, the in - stock cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. As of the end of November 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. As of December 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.3329 million tons, an increase of 44,500 tons year - on - year and an increase of 709,700 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.8. Imports of Cotton and Yarn in November - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (from 90,000 tons), an increase of 34.4%; a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (from 110,000 tons), an increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. From September to November 2025 (2025/26 season), the cumulative cotton import volume was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In November 2025, China's yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons, an increase of about 25%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative yarn import volume was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [36]. 3.2.9. Supply - Side Summary - According to the latest USDA report, the global supply - demand remained in a balanced state, with overall production and consumption at an absolute high level and moderate inventory. The contradiction was not prominent. Domestically, although production increased, due to the tight industrial and commercial carry - over inventory and smooth sales, the overall inventory did not increase significantly year - on - year. Globally, attention should be paid to the reduction of planting areas in the US, Brazil, and China next year. Domestically, attention should be paid to the situation of structural supply tightness after the growth of Xinjiang's yarn production capacity and the adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting policy next year [38]. 3.3. Demand - Side Analysis: Strong Resilience in Downstream Demand 3.3.1. Strong Domestic Demand - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [43]. 3.3.2. Weakening External Demand Exports - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Among them, textile exports were 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03% and a month - on - month increase of 9.05%; clothing exports were 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. Among them, textile exports were 130.009 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; clothing exports were 137.787 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [46]. 3.3.3. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.064 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 3.8 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of the textile industry was 2.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 600 million yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1.6 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.878 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 9 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of textile and clothing was 1.008 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 billion yuan [48]. 3.3.4. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, the retail sales of clothing and apparel accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.65% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 25.356 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% (the previous month was upward - adjusted to 27.24 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 58.114 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 58.321 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% (the previous month was downward - adjusted to 58.161 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 2.13, a year - on - year decrease of 0.21 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 [55]. 3.3.5. Load Changes - As of November 21, the load index of pure - cotton yarn mills was 64.3, a decrease of 0.14 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 48.3, the same as the previous week; the load of pure - polyester yarn was 59, the same as the previous week. The load of yarn and grey cloth showed signs of weakening [57]. 3.3.6. Industrial Chain Inventory - In terms of inventory, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.9 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous week; the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 28.26 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week; the inventory of all - cotton grey cloth was 31.48 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week. As it entered the consumption slack season, inventory began to accumulate [61]. 3.3.7. Demand - Side Summary - In terms of downstream demand, domestic demand was very stable and resilient. In terms of external demand exports, it began to weaken in the second half of the year. However, judging from the US consumption data, the recent data was acceptable, but there was a long delay, and further observation was needed. In the past two years, although cotton prices were sluggish, global consumption increased steadily, offsetting most of the production growth [66].