期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 29 日 数据来源： 同花顺，长江期货 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2024/5/20 2025/5/20 南华期货:工业品指数 南华期货:商品指数 南华期货:农产品指数（右轴） 1 宏观金融 ◆股指：震荡运行 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议低位适度持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ...

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bearish on glass, recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or waiting for opportunities; recommended to buy aluminum on dips [1][11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash for the 09 contract, recommended to hold short positions [1][20][22][25][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for long - term investment; neutral on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to go long on dips [1][37][39][40][42][45] Core Views The stock market is in the second stage of a bull market, with expected incremental capital inflows. The bond market may see a short - term repair if the stock market corrects. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with prices expected to fluctuate. Non - ferrous metal prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies, and are expected to remain volatile. Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by supply, demand, and cost factors, with a weakening supply - demand relationship for some products. In the cotton and textile industry, global supply and demand are improving, and prices are expected to be strong. In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, supply and demand vary by product, with some facing supply pressure and others showing signs of improvement [6][8][11][20][34][37] Summary by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The three major indices continued their strong performance. The market is in the second stage of a bull market, with incremental capital expected. Short - term market tops are difficult to predict, and investors should maintain positions and make appropriate adjustments. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market started a repair on Monday, breaking through the lower limit of the previous trading range. There is a greater probability that stocks and bonds will follow their own trends in the short term, but the relationship between them is not completely decoupled. The recommended strategy is to hold off [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On August 25, the spot market entered a calm period, with upstream inventory rising and downstream inventory gradually decreasing. Supply recovery was slower than expected, and the overall inventory was healthy. The recommended strategy is range trading, with JM2601 focusing on the range of 1110 - 1250 and J2601 on 1610 - 1780 [8] - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Fundamentally, demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory increased. The price is near the electric furnace cost, with a neutral - low valuation. The recommended strategy is range trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of 3100 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: Supply remained stable last week, with high upstream inventory. Demand improved slightly, but the high inventory still suppressed prices. The near - term contract is expected to decline slightly, and the recommended strategy is to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait and see for the 01 contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices remained stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies will support copper prices. Supply has increased, but demand has not shown a turning point. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper at 78500 - 79500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation of bauxite have been affected by the rainy season. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and downstream demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] - **Nickel**: The release of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia has led to a slight decline in the price of nickel ore. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron is stable. The price of stainless steel is expected to be strong, and the price of nickel sulfate is stable. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: In July, domestic refined tin production increased, and imports decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventory has decreased. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the operating range of Shanghai tin 09 contract at 259,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The trade negotiation results have reduced the market's concern about tariffs. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips after price corrections, with the operating range of Shanghai silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and Shanghai gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: On August 25, the PVC price was stable. High supply continues, and demand is mainly from soft products and new industries. Exports are facing challenges, and inventory is high. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: On August 25, the caustic soda price was stable. The macro - environment is improving, supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the support level of 2650 [22] - **Styrene**: On August 25, the styrene price was stable. The cost is affected by factors such as crude oil and pure benzene. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 [24][25] - **Rubber**: On August 25, the rubber price was stable. Supply was affected by typhoons, and inventory was decreasing. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 15200 - 15600 [26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. Inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term and then strengthen. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to the price support level of 1680 - 1720 [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable. Traditional demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate [29] - **Polyolefins**: On August 25, the polyolefin price was stable. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [31][33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to be strong [34] - **Apples**: The early - maturing apple market is in a state of polarization, and the price of stored apples is stable. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is in the growth period, and the price is expected to fluctuate upward [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weak, and the supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the 11 contract pressure level at 14200 - 14500 and the 01 contract at 14500 - 14700. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The egg price is weak in the peak season, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 10 contract, and there may be opportunities to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [39] - **Corn**: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 11 contract or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The arrival of soybeans in September - October is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. However, cost support limits the decline. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the range of 3080 - 3200 [42][44] - **Oils**: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips or use a rolling long strategy. Also, pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread strategy [45][52][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs is expected to increase significantly after September, and the price may experience a phased rebound but with limited upside potential. In the long - term, prices will continue to face pressure. For eggs, short - term supply is abundant, restricting price increases, while long - term high supply may be difficult to reverse. Corn supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may decline due to concentrated new - crop supply and lower costs [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the national spot price of pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.61 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg. The futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13,840 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was - 230 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of breeding sows is sufficient, and production performance has improved. The supply of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased. The proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter has increased, and the average slaughter weight has risen for two consecutive weeks. - Demand: Weekly slaughter capacity and volume have slightly increased, but the fresh - meat sales rate has fluctuated narrowly, and the frozen - meat inventory rate has slightly increased. The demand is expected to increase at the end of August, but the profit of slaughtering enterprises is still in the red, limiting the increase in demand. - Cost: The price of piglets has decreased, the price of binary breeding sows has remained flat, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned negative, and the cost of fattening pigs has slightly increased [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance of sows has reached the highest level in the past four years, and the number of newborn piglets has increased [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The state's pork purchase and storage mainly boost market sentiment. The supply pressure will be alleviated, and consumption is expected to improve, which may drive a phased price rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the supply will increase before May next year, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short - sell on the 11 and 01 contracts, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main 2510 contract was 3033 yuan/500 kg, down 149 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 393 yuan/500 kg, up 169 yuan/500 kg [6][66]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The number of newly - laid hens in August remains high. Although the culling of old hens has accelerated, the supply of cold - storage eggs has supplemented the market, and the overall supply is still abundant. The inventory of laying hens in July reached the highest level in the same period in history. - Demand: The current low egg price has stimulated downstream procurement, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the inventory in each link has increased [6]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - laid hens from September to November 2025 is expected to be large due to high replenishment from May to July 2025. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [89]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg price may stop falling and rebound, but the high supply in the short - term will limit the increase. If the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season fails again, the culling may increase, alleviating the supply pressure in the distant months. It is recommended to short - sell on the 10 contract after the price rebounds or hold put options. If the culling process accelerates, there may be opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts [6]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [7][95]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of traders is low, but the new spring corn in North China has been launched, and the policy - related grain rotation has supplemented the supply. The import of corn in July decreased significantly. - Demand: The demand for feed has increased, but the high price difference between corn and wheat has squeezed the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is still in the red, and the start - up rate is low [7]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The 2025/2026 corn planting is stable, and the climate suitability is very high. The planting cost has decreased [114]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated supply of new crops and lower costs. It is recommended to short - sell on the 11 contract after the price rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, under the low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans, a decrease in yield and improvement in exports may further tighten the ratio, with US soybean prices expected to run strongly around 1030 cents per bushel. In China, from September to October, arrivals are abundant, and prices are pressured by the uncertainty of state reserves release and US soybean purchases. However, due to cost support, significant price drops are unlikely. In the short - term, prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of US soybeans, but the increase may be less than that of US soybeans [6]. - For oils, the improvement in demand combined with the tightening supply provides upward momentum. Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The M2601 contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The basis price was 01 - 100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans rebounded to around 1060 cents per bushel, while the domestic soybean meal trend was inverted, and the market was pressured by state reserves release and US soybean purchases [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the first half of August, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas was less than in July. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained around 68%, and it is expected to decline. In China, arrivals from August to October are sufficient, but after October, supply may gradually decrease due to the slow pace of US soybean purchases. However, the possibility of state reserves release and US soybean purchases still exists [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the second half of the year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the planting cost of US soybeans decreased to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel, and it is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. The bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3060 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, soybean meal prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, they will follow the upward trend of US soybeans. The strategy is to mainly conduct range operations on M2601, lay out long positions at the lower edge of the range, and gradually reduce positions at high prices. Spot enterprises should increase positions in a rolling manner [6]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week ending August 22, the palm oil main 01 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 9592 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 01 contract fell 76 yuan/ton to 8458 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 133 yuan/ton to 9890 yuan/ton. The domestic oil market showed slight differentiation this week [80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil only accumulated to 2.13 million tons, lower than market expectations. In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production increase was slow, so the inventory accumulation speed may continue to slow down. In Indonesia, the ending inventory continued to decline to 2.53 million tons in June. In China, palm oil imports have increased, and the short - term supply is expected to remain loose [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The Pro Farmer survey estimated the 25/26 season US soybean yield to be 53 bushels per acre, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, the USDA August report unexpectedly lowered the sown area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the overall supply - demand situation has tightened. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient until October, but after November, the supply may tighten, which is expected to drive the inventory of soybean oil to decline [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, which will seriously affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. In the short - term, although there are market rumors about the purchase of Australian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed in China is expected to be tight before November, which is conducive to the reduction of rapeseed oil inventory [80]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. The strategy is to consider long positions on dips or rolling long positions for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long strategy of the palm oil 1 - 5 spread [80].

尿素：现货明显转弱 关注底部支撑 01 长江期货尿素周报： 现货明显转弱 关注底部支撑 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-08-25 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 1 市场变化：价格：受中印化肥协议相关消息影响，尿素周度价格先强后弱，8月22日尿素2509合约收盘价1739元/ 吨，较上周上调2元/吨，涨幅0.12%，期间最高涨至1825元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1741元/吨，较上周上调 26元/吨，涨幅1.52%。基差：尿素主力基差先弱后强，8月22日河南市场主力基差2元/吨，周度基差运行区间-76- 2元/吨。价差：尿素9-1价差区间震荡，8月22日9-1价差-24元/吨，周度运行区间-34——-23元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率84.09%，较上周降低0.36个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.15%， 较上周降低0.32个百分点，尿素日均产量19.44万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格以稳为主，周内无烟煤矿开工仍在较高 水平，下游用煤企业原料煤采购仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips as Powell's dovish remarks have raised expectations of a Fed rate cut, domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and there are signs of marginal improvement in inventory [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai Aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is also recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 250,000 tons to 95.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.319 million tons. The downstream demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, with some sectors showing signs of recovery. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while that of aluminum rods decreased. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies is pressuring production [3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Suggest to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4]. 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, and prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Stricter safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as recent frequent rainfall, have restricted mining activities [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season has affected mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 83.5%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,233.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.4 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 3.423 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons week - on - week. Newly put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing, and individual enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, which will not affect medium - term production. Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region have received notices of production restrictions for the military parade, but most alumina enterprises have not [14]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.319 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of some remaining capacity in Guizhou, the commissioning of replacement capacity at Yunlv Yixin, and the gradual resumption of a 120,000 - ton technical renovation project at Baise Yinhai [23]. 08. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the week, while that of aluminum rods decreased [3]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 53% week - on - week. The four - ministry joint notice on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies has affected the industry, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving termination notices of tax refunds, resulting in regional production suspension and shipment suspension. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy is pressuring production [32]. 11 & 12. Downstream开工 - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5% to 60% week - on - week [45]. - For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. Industrial profiles have relatively stable orders in the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, while construction profiles still have weak demand [45]. - For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66% week - on - week. As the traditional peak season approaches, raw material stocking and customer提货 have strengthened, and some enterprises' orders have improved compared to July [45]. - For aluminum cables, the operating rate of domestic leading enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6% week - on - week. With the restart of the power grid construction cycle in September, enterprises are stocking up on raw materials and increasing production [49]. - For primary aluminum alloy, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 56.6% week - on - week. Downstream enterprises are making trial replenishments for the peak season, but orders are generally average, and the demand for aluminum water consumption has decreased [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass's 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests range trading or waiting; aluminum recommends buying on dips; nickel suggests waiting or short - selling on rallies; tin and silver suggest range trading; gold recommends buying on dips after price corrections [1][11][14][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash's 09 contract suggests holding short positions; caustic soda is expected to oscillate strongly; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely; [1][20][22][23][25][28][29] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs suggest short - selling on rallies; corn suggests range trading; soybean meal suggests limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate strongly [1][38][40][41][42][44] Core Views - In the short term, the index futures market has strong upward momentum due to abundant liquidity, increased investor enthusiasm, and potential policy support, but may experience phased adjustments. The bond market shows signs of self - repair, but the downward space of yields should be rationally viewed [6] - The black building materials market is generally in a state of oscillation. The coal market has price adjustments and inventory accumulation, and the supply - demand relationship of rebar and glass is complex, with high inventory in glass suppressing prices [8][9] - Non - ferrous metals are mostly in a high - level oscillation state. Factors such as global central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes affect prices. Some varieties have potential upward space in the future [11][12][14] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most varieties are in an oscillation state, and some varieties have supply - demand imbalances [20][21][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors, with cotton and cotton yarn showing strong oscillation trends [34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather. Pigs and eggs face supply pressure, while oils are supported by multiple factors and show strong oscillation trends [38][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term upward space exists, but phased adjustments may occur. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance. The bond market shows self - repair, but rationally view the downward space of yields [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Oscillate. Coal prices in main producing areas have adjustments, and the sales of some coal types are average [8] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Supply - demand relationship is complex, and the price is near the cost of electric arc furnaces [8] - **Glass**: The 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective. High inventory suppresses prices, and the traditional peak season has limited impact on cold - repair expectations [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Global central bank policies and supply - demand relationships affect prices, and there is potential upward space in the future [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Buy on dips. The supply - demand relationship is in a state of transition, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up [14] - **Nickel**: Wait or short - sell on rallies. The supply is in an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term [17] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is in the off - season [17] - **Silver and Gold**: Oscillate. Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and market expectations support prices, buy on dips after price corrections [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate weakly. High inventory and uncertain export sustainability, pay attention to policies and cost disturbances [20][21] - **Soda Ash**: Hold short positions in the 09 contract. High inventory and large arbitrage volume, with potential for further decline [33] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate strongly. Supply - demand relationship is favorable, and pay attention to downstream stocking rhythm [23] - **Styrene**: Oscillate. Fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm [25] - **Rubber**: Oscillate. Typhoon weather affects supply, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [26] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, demand is relatively scattered, and pay attention to downstream purchasing willingness [29] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases slightly, downstream demand is weak, and port inventory accumulates [29] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate widely. Cost is uncertain, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition [30] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate strongly. Global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors are favorable [34] - **Apples**: Range trading. Low inventory and growth factors support prices [35] - **Jujubes**: Range trading. Pay attention to the impact of weather on fruit quality [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is relatively sufficient, and pay attention to elimination and demand [40][41] - **Corn**: Range trading. New crop supply pressure and cost decline, pay attention to policies and substitutes [41] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited upside. Domestic supply is abundant in the short term, and prices may strengthen in the medium - long term [42][43] - **Oils**: Oscillate strongly. Supported by multiple factors, suggest a long - buying strategy on dips [44][51][52]