饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 11 日辽宁现货 13.9-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 13.8-14.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 13.8-14 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 15-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳中有 涨。猪价连续下跌破 14 元/公斤后市场抗价惜售，且 6 月 11 日国家收储 1 万吨猪肉（此前是轮换），也提振市场情绪，支撑猪价。但 6 月生猪出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校放假，季节性需求淡季显 现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表现，供强需弱格局未改， 猪价上方仍承压，短期猪价维持震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和冻品 入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能繁、降体重、 不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月 缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增加态势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润，去化幅度有 限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承压。策略 上，盘面仍 ...

产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-06-10 饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 10 日辽宁现货 13.7-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 13.8-14.1 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 13.7-13.9 元/公斤，较 上一日稳定；广东 15-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价 格稳中有涨。猪价连续下跌破 14 元/公斤后市场抗价惜售，且 6 月 11 日国 家收储 1 万吨猪肉（此前是轮换），也提振市场情绪，支撑猪价。但 6 月生 猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校放假，季节性需 求淡季显现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表现，供强需弱格 局未改，猪价上方仍承压，短期猪价维持震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育和冻品入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能繁、 降体重、不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增加态 势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润，去化 幅度有限， ...

棉纺策略日报 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等关税谈判密集期，市场保持观望情 ...

◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.13%至 78910 元/吨。关 税对铜价影响再度提升，中美元首通话也带来利多预期，铜价偏强，振 幅扩大。基本面上，国内硫酸市场多区域上行趋势明显，炼厂生产得以 维持，精铜产量依然保持高位，但供应端的扰动及极低的 TC 依然对铜价 有潜在支撑。目前铜社会库存低位企稳，市场消费呈现下滑趋势，炼厂 则考虑安排出口。市场高升水、高月差在铜价上涨之后有所转弱。整体 来看，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，基本面的支撑相较此前有所减弱，铜价 上行空间将受到限制。但基于目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存， 下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期或仍维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.20%至 20025 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内亚矿端扰动尚 未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到 7 月份才 能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 135 万 吨至 9065 万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少 2 ...

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and treasury bonds are recommended for bottom - up allocation and are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; aluminum is recommended for short - selling with a light position; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner; apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360]; soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips; oils are recommended for short - selling on rallies [1][39] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - factors. It points out that different futures markets show different trends due to factors such as economic data, policy changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations. For example, the stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", while the bond market is in a path of sentiment repair. In the commodity market, some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, and some are influenced by external factors such as tariffs and international trade relations [1][5] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a differentiated performance on Monday. The CSI 1000 index futures were the most active, while the trading volume of the SSE 50 was low. The market presents a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", and the overall trend is expected to be fluctuating with an upward bias [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market sentiment continued to recover on Monday. Although the intraday market fluctuated, the bulls were dominant. Positive factors are resonating, but the trade talks may boost risk appetite, and the interest rate decline may have some reasonable pull - backs [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The fundamental supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the decline in demand and the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies [7] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated on Monday. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly affected by macro - news. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is recommended to observe [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price center may continue to move down. The coke market's fundamentals are also loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The impact of tariffs on copper prices has increased again, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range. Although the supply is high, the low inventory and supply disruptions still support the price, but the weakening downstream consumption restricts the upward space [10] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply in Guinea is disturbed, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as the decline in downstream demand and the increase in tariffs, the short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a pattern of high cost and oversupply in the medium - long term. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is affected by tariffs. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC has a pattern of weak demand and high supply. Although the inventory has decreased recently, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has a situation of strong current situation and weak expectation. In June, there are many overhauls, but the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to focus on factors such as alumina production and inventory [22] - **Styrene**: The styrene market has a pattern of high valuation and loose supply - demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, focusing on factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of limited raw material price decline space and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on macro - news [25] - **Urea**: The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production and urea inventory [28] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a pattern of high supply and limited demand support. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as macro - changes and olefin plant operations [30] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market has a pattern of increasing supply pressure and entering the traditional off - season of demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as downstream demand and domestic policies [31] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak downstream demand. The 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but due to the warming of Sino - US relations, the cotton price is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner [35] - **Apples**: The apple market has a stable price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range due to low inventory [36] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a pattern of sufficient supply and seasonal weakening of demand. The short - term price support is weak, and different contracts have different trading strategies [40] - **Corn**: The corn market has a pattern of short - term supply - demand game and long - term tightening of supply - demand. It is recommended to operate within a high - level range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by US soybean weather and import costs. The short - term price is restricted by supply increase, while the long - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43] - **Oils**: The oil market has a pattern of mixed long - and short - term factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and rebound from the third quarter. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio [49]

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. economic data shows resilience recently, with the May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the April inflation data below expectations, and the Fed maintaining policy independence. Gold prices are in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The strong employment data and existing inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September but has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Considering the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the market lowering the expected rate - cut amplitude, the price of U.S. gold slightly corrected. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3331 per ounce, up 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3280 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver rose to catch up. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 9.2%, closing at $36.13 per ounce. The lower support level is $34.5, and the upper resistance level is $37 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained policy independence, the April inflation data was below expectations, and recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gold prices. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance, and Powell said that tariffs might have a lasting impact on inflation and that the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear before considering rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Due to the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data to be released on Wednesday [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators There is no specific text - based summary information provided in the content, only some data charts are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. May non - farm payrolls change, seasonally adjusted (in millions) | 13.9 | 13 | 14.7 | | U.S. May unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. May ADP employment change (in millions) | 3.7 | 11 | 6.2 | | U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate revision (%) | - 6.3 | - | - 6.3 | [20] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls increased by 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an upward risk of inflation. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. After the release of the non - farm data, the market lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude, expecting the annual rate - cut to be less than 50 basis points [21]. - The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally reached the central bank's 2% target. Since last June, the ECB has cut rates eight times. Currently, the inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 2%, and ECB President Lagarde said the bank is in a "good position," leading investors to believe that even if the easing policy is not ended, rate cuts will pause [21]. - Representatives of the U.S. and the EU said that the bilateral trade negotiations are progressing rapidly. The new U.S. metal tariffs have disrupted the global economy again, increasing the urgency of the negotiations. U.S. President Trump's measure to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. On the same day, the U.S. asked its trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid other punitive tariffs from taking effect in July [21]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 20,897.20 kg to 1,185,582.5 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 600 kg to 17,847 kg. - For silver, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 40,062.53 kg to 15,387,521.69 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 51,055 kg to 1,117,940 kg [12][26]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of June 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 191,433 contracts, an increase of 14,371 contracts from last week. - As of June 3, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 59,230 contracts, an increase of 8,616 contracts from last week [12][31]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (June 11) at 20:30, the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data will be released. - On Thursday (June 12) at 20:30, the U.S. May PPI year - on - year data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be announced. - On Friday (June 13) at 22:00, the preliminary value of the U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [33].

铜周报：基本面支撑，铜价仍存韧性 2025-6-9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 供给端：当前铜矿加工费处于历史低位，铜矿供应持续偏紧。截至6月6日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-43美元/吨，4月底以来进口铜精 矿粗炼费（TC）持续位于持稳于-43美元/吨左右。5月电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加12.86%，国内精炼铜产量 稳定增加。 需求端：旺季过后下游需求转淡，截至6月5日，SMM电解铜制杆周度开工率环比下滑至74.87%，环比下滑1.03个百分点，铜价运 行依然坚挺，压制下游备货欲望。淡季来临市场预期悲观，下游铜管、铜板带开工率下滑，铜箔企业开工率小幅增长。 库存：截至6月6日，上海期货交易所铜库存10.74万吨，周环比1.52%。截止6月5日，国内铜社会库存14.88万吨，较节前5月29日 累库1.01万吨，环比 ...

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