1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black building materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1][18] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1][20] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Bearish and range - bound [1][27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish and range - bound [1][29] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound [1][31] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom [1][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: Sell on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [1][33] - Eggs: Wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 contract [1][34] - Corn: Cautiously chase highs in the short term, hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [1][36] - Soybean meal: Bullish for near - term contracts, bearish for far - term contracts [1][39] - Oils: Limited rebound for soybean and palm oils, bearish for rapeseed oil [1][40] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, taking into account factors such as production, demand, inventory, and policy changes [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The US economic data and geopolitical risks may cause index futures to fluctuate. However, considering the PMI recovery in December and expectations of early policy support in the new year, the market is expected to develop further. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The decline in bond market decline momentum has appeared, and there may be short - term support. But in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish factors and weak marginal support. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests range trading on the right side [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded to above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period with weakening export expectations and a seasonal weakening of the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [7] - **Glass**: Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro - sentiment and funds, the price has reached a high level, but the current demand is weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the long - term price is expected to rise. In the short term, it may maintain a wide - range high - level shock [10] - **Aluminum**: The current supply is in a weak state, and the price is mainly driven by expectations and funds. With increasing production capacity and weakening demand, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to observe the policy changes [12] - **Nickel**: Although the price has rebounded due to factors such as quota cuts, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and pay attention to supply and demand changes [15] - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to rise in the medium term. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is expected to move in a range [18] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but the low valuation and potential policy support suggest a low - buying strategy. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, export, and cost factors [18] - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the commodity atmosphere. It is recommended to observe the changes in supply and demand [20] - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [28] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the short - term is recommended to be bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long term [22] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, and the price may continue to correct. It is recommended to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and other factors [24] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. It is recommended to trade in a range [25] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw material prices [27] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Affected by the global supply - demand adjustment and policy expectations, the price is expected to be bullish in a range [29] - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [32] Agricultural and livestock products - **Hogs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates due to the game between supply and demand. In the long term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of the year and may strengthen in the second half, but it is still cautious. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [33] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price has a selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [36] - **Soybean meal**: The short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to go long on dips for the M2603 contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [39] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of soybean and palm oils is limited, and the rapeseed oil is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs for soybean and palm oils and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound space of the black sector is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot-futures positive arbitrage opportunities. The coal and coke sectors are expected to fluctuate, and short-term trading is recommended for iron ore. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector strengthened collectively, with coking coal leading the rise. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > coke > iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil. [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall atmosphere in the futures market was warm, with commodity prices generally rising, and the non-ferrous sector being the strongest. [4] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore had the largest increase. [13] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profitability remained stable, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral. [14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production increased, demand decreased, and inventories began to accumulate, showing a seasonal weakening in the supply-demand pattern. [4][5] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Port iron ore inventories continued to increase significantly, while steel mill iron ore inventories increased slightly. Steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival was not obvious. Iron ore shipments declined from the high level, but arrivals were still at a high level. With the resumption of steel mill production in January, pig iron production rebounded slightly from the low level, and it was expected to be in a pattern of inventory accumulation in the short term. [5] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production rebounded, and coking coal inventories continued to accumulate. However, the news of coal mine capacity reduction boosted the market, and the near-month coking coal strengthened. [5] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production increased slightly month-on-month, and inventories changed little. The spot price of coke remained stable last week, and the profit of coking plants was already low, with limited room for further compression. However, the premium of coke futures was already large. [5] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's disk profit deteriorated, and the rebar-iron ore price ratio declined. [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various domestic and international policies, news, and events, including geopolitical events, production plans of OPEC+, regulatory adjustments of the futures exchange, and industry regulations. The EU carbon tariff was officially implemented at the beginning of 2026, which would significantly increase the cost of steel exports to the EU. [37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is better to be on the sidelines [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum suggests more waiting and watching; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are to be watched temporarily; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][18] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish; apples are slightly bullish; red dates are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies in the near - term contracts and cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs' 02 contract is suitable for hedging on rallies for breeding enterprises; corn is to avoid chasing high in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is to be treated bullishly in the near - term and bearishly in the far - term; oils have limited rebound, with soybean and palm oil not recommended to chase the rally and rapeseed oil showing a weak trend [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, cost - profit factors, and policy expectations. Different products face different market situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their characteristics [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic. After December's PMI returned to expansion and with strong expectations of early policy support at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks increase, and the potential for a callback should be noticed [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The current low static returns of bonds, high - intensity long - term bond supply, and short - lived market reactions to positive factors do not provide sufficient reasons for institutions to increase bond allocations significantly [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. The bearish logic is high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand, while the bullish side relies on domestic mine production cuts and cost support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is above the electric furnace off - peak electricity cost, with neutral valuation. After major meetings, the expected policies are stable, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened with increased production, decreased demand, and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - **Glass**: It is better to wait and watch. Although there are positive expectations on the supply side, the demand is weak. There are still potential positive driving factors in the short term, but the overall market is complex, and the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It has reached new highs and is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. In the short term, it is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage, with potential over - valuation. However, in the long term, due to supply shortages and increased demand, it still has upward potential [10] - **Aluminum**: It has fallen from high levels. It is recommended to strengthen waiting and watching. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward pressure is large, especially considering the seasonal impact and new production capacity [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. It is advised to wait and watch or short on rallies. The overall nickel market is in a state of excess, and although there are short - term price rebounds, the long - term excess situation is expected to continue [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Gold and Silver**: They are expected to trade in a range. Supported by the US GDP growth and Fed's policies, and with the weakening of the US economic data, their medium - term price centers are expected to rise. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in new positions [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of game. Although the downstream demand is strong, there are still uncertainties in supply, such as the situation of mines in Yichun [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost - side disturbances, it may continue to trade in a wide low - level range [18] - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a low - level range and recommended to wait and watch temporarily. There are short - term delivery pressures, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of related commodity atmospheres, but the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The current valuation is relatively high, and considering factors such as overseas supply and the Spring Festival effect, it is advised to be cautious and bearish in the short term [20] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. During the high - yield period of Southeast Asian rubber tapping, the supply increases, but there are also factors supporting the price. The inventory is rising, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is affected by holidays [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both decreasing. The production is reduced due to maintenance, and the agricultural and industrial demand is also changing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port arrival factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly sideways. In December, the price was under pressure due to supply and demand. Although there is a supply reduction expectation in the first quarter of 2026, the demand improvement is limited, and the upward space is restricted [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily. The supply is in excess, but with the reduction of supply and cost support, the downward space may be limited [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply and demand situation is adjusted, and with stable consumption and policy expectations, the price may maintain a slightly bullish trend [26][28] - **Apples**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the sales in different producing areas have their own characteristics [28] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market transactions in different regions have different performances [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates and is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and the cost is decreasing. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts, and the industry can hedge on rallies [30][31] - **Eggs**: The current basis is low and the valuation is high. In the short term, the price may rise seasonally, but it is not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the new - laying pressure is small, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, and it is not advisable to chase the high. In the long term, the demand will gradually release, and there is strong support at the bottom, but the supply - demand pattern in the 2025/2026 year is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range. In the short term, the M2603 contract can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The far - term 05 contract is affected by different factors and has different price trends [37][38] - **Oils**: The rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited, and it is not recommended to chase the rally. Rapeseed oil shows a weak trend, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [38][43]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short-term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advisable to wait and see [1][8][10] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Copper, hold long positions cautiously; aluminum, strengthen observation; nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; tin, range trading; gold, range trading; silver, range trading; lithium carbonate, range-bound [1][11][15][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, range trading; caustic soda, wait and see temporarily; soda ash, wait and see temporarily; styrene, range trading; rubber, range trading; urea, range trading; methanol, range trading; polyolefins, weak and volatile [1][19][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, expected to be slightly bullish; apples, slightly bullish; jujubes, expected to rebound from the bottom [1][27][29][30] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs, short on rallies for near-term contracts, cautiously bullish for far-term contracts; eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the current 02 contract; corn, short-term cautious about chasing highs, grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal, treat near-term contracts strongly on dips, far-term contracts weakly; oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, cautious about chasing rallies [1][31][34][36][38][39] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][11] - For most varieties, short-term market fluctuations are relatively large, and medium- to long-term trends need to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and policy orientation [11][15][32] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips. Affected by geopolitical events and economic data at home and abroad, there are potential callback risks in the short term, but the market is expected to develop further in the long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. The current low static yield of bonds and high - intensity long - term bond supply make it difficult for institutions to significantly increase their bond allocations [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short-term trading. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support, with clear short - selling logic and some bullish factors [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Driven by cost and affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Wait and see. The supply side has positive expectations, but the demand side is weak. There are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash, and the price is expected to be short - term bullish [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price has entered a high - volatility stage in the short term, but there is still upward space in the long term due to supply shortages [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is driven by expectations and capital, but there is great fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is limited [13] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, but there is a short - term rebound [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [15] - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy, the medium - term price center moves up [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The supply and demand are weak in reality, but the valuation is low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see temporarily. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [21] - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see temporarily. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the disk is limited [27] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term, and pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, but the downstream buying is weak, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is bullish due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weak and volatile. The demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited, but there is a short - term rebound expectation [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Slightly bullish. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply and demand and policy expectations, the price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish [29] - **Apples**: Slightly bullish. The market price is relatively stable, and different regions have different trading situations [29] - **Jujubes**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere varies in different regions [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the long - term supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is not optimistic before the Spring Festival [32] - **Eggs**: Range trading. The short - term price has a seasonal increase expectation, but the supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [34][35] - **Corn**: Weak and volatile. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The short - term domestic and foreign market conditions are complex, and different strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [38][39] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. The short - term trends of the three major oils are expected to diverge, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing rallies for soybean and palm oils, and gradually liquidate long positions for rapeseed oil [39][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, short - term price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games, while long - term prices are expected to gradually rise but with limited upside potential. For the egg industry, short - term prices may increase seasonally during the Spring Festival, but long - term supply pressure remains. In the corn market, short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term prices are supported at the bottom but with limited upward movement [5][61][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Market Review - In December, pig prices first stabilized and then rose. Spot prices increased due to factors like the release of second - fattening and epidemic pigs, and terminal consumption growth. Futures prices also rebounded, with the 03 contract's premium increasing and the basis strengthening. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume declined, and spot prices stagnated and fell [7][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows is gradually being reduced but remains above the normal level. Pig production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be high. Pig inventory is slowly increasing, and the proportion of standard and large pigs is rising. The monthly average slaughter weight is at a high level in the same period [11][16][24]. 3.1.3 Demand - In December, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume may decline, but it may increase again in January due to Spring Festival stocking. The frozen product inventory is at a high level, and its support for consumption has weakened, and it may suppress supply before and after the Spring Festival [34][38][41]. 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - Pig prices rebounded in December, and breeding losses narrowed. Feed and piglet prices fluctuated slightly, and the long - term fattening cost remained low [44]. 3.1.5 Policy - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. It requires the top 25 large enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January, lower the weight, and prohibit second - fattening. The state mainly conducts reserve rotation [50]. 3.1.6 Driving Summary - Short - term: Price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games. Long - term: The price in the first half of the year is not optimistic, and the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but the increase is limited [53][54]. 3.1.7 Valuation - Near - term contracts are undervalued, and far - term contracts are neutrally valued [55]. 3.1.8 Strategy - For near - term contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy when prices rebound. For far - term contracts, be cautious about a bullish outlook, and the industry can hedge at a profit [5]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Market Review - In December, egg prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the futures price mainly declined, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. The current main contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a low level in the same period [67]. 3.2.2 Supply - The number of newly opened - laying hens in January is average. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the overall supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the number of newly opened - laying hens from February to May 2026 is expected to decrease, but the supply pressure relief needs time [61][63]. 3.2.3 Demand - In January, as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to improve. The high cost - performance of eggs also drives substitution demand [63]. 3.2.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: Egg prices are expected to rise during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to sufficient supply. Long - term: Supply pressure is expected to gradually ease, but it takes time, and attention should be paid to culling and external factors [91][92]. 3.2.5 Valuation - The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high [94]. 3.2.6 Strategy - Do not short the market in the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [63]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - In December, corn prices rose and fell alternately. The spot price had strong support at the bottom, and the futures price first fell and then rose. The current main contract has a discount to the spot, and the basis is at a high level in the same period [100][101][104]. 3.3.2 Supply - The national grain sales progress is 45%, and the supply in the producing areas has slowed down. The import of corn in November increased, and the inventory in the north and south ports changed. The 2025/2026 corn supply is expected to be in balance with demand, with limited upward price space [100][105][107]. 3.3.3 Demand - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the rigid demand for feed. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the demand for wheat as a substitute may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high product inventory [100][115][126]. 3.3.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: There is still selling pressure to be released. Long - term: The cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [100]. 3.3.5 Valuation - The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the basis is at a high level in the same period, with a neutral - low valuation [135]. 3.3.6 Strategy - Be cautious about chasing high in the short - term, and grain - holding entities can hedge when prices rebound. In the long - term, the demand will gradually be released, but the increase is limited [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal - The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness continues under the expectation of inventory reduction. The 03 contract is strong but with limited upside, while the 05 contract is weak but with strengthened bottom support due to geopolitical risks [5][8]. 2.2. Oils and Fats - In the short term, the rebound of oils and fats is limited. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be more abundant [75][216][217]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the East China spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton monthly; the M2605 contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton monthly; the basis was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The US soybean price was weak, while the domestic spot price was strong due to customs clearance delays and inventory reduction expectations [8][10]. 3.1.2. Supply End - The global soybean supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly. The 2025/26 global soybean output is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. The supply will first tighten and then loosen [8]. 3.1.3. Demand End - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. As of December 26, the national soybean inventory was 6.5444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 605,500 tons (8.41%); the soybean meal inventory of full - sample oil mills was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,100 tons (1.35%) [8]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September it is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bushel, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand - The global soybean output is expected to be 426 million tons, and the output - consumption difference has shrunk to 690,000 tons [16]. 3.1.6. US Soybean Inventory - Sales Ratio and Export - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio has tightened to 6.74%. As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 386,010 tons to the Chinese mainland, accounting for 44.36% [26]. 3.1.7. Brazilian Export Sales - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT is 38.42%, lower than 41.09% of the same period last year, but the overall sales progress is good due to the large increase in production [27]. 3.1.8. Sowing Progress in South America - As of December 12, the sowing in the central and northern regions of Brazil was completed, and the sowing progress in the southern Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. The sowing progress in Argentina was 75.5% [37]. 3.1.9. South American Weather - Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, which is not conducive to soybean growth, while the precipitation in the main Brazilian producing areas is normal, which is beneficial to soybean growth [43]. 3.1.10. US Soybean Planting Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in 25/26 is 1148 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 1000 cents/bushel. The US soybean price has strong bottom support [45]. 3.1.11. Premium Quotes - The Brazilian premium quotes have stabilized recently. As of February, the Brazilian premium quote was 150H cents/bushel. The crushing profit of imported soybeans was a loss of about - 30 yuan/ton [52]. 3.1.12. Import Cost - Based on the US soybean planting cost of 1000 cents/bushel, the US soybean premium of 230 cents/bushel, the exchange rate of 7.1, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.7, the domestic soybean import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal cost from February to March is 3200 yuan/ton, and the Brazilian cost is 2580 yuan/ton [54]. 3.1.13. Ship - Buying Progress - Driven by the import crushing profit, the domestic ship - buying progress is relatively fast. The procurement progress for the January shipment has reached 100%. After January, the domestic arrival may decrease, which may lead to a phased increase in prices [59]. 3.1.14. Soybean Arrival - The domestic soybean arrival will first decrease and then increase. The 2025 - 2026 first - quarter import volume will decline seasonally, which is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction by CGC will slow down the inventory reduction of soybean meal [61][207]. 3.1.15. Soybean Meal Inventory - The domestic soybean meal inventory reduction is slow. As of December 19, the soybean inventory was 7.22 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 24.86%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 17.9%) [207]. 3.2. Oils and Fats 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 8584 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 7862 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract decreased by 670 yuan/ton to 9087 yuan/ton. The decline of rapeseed oil was the most significant [77]. 3.2.2. Palm Oil - In the short term, the export of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased, and the production decreased slightly. The ending inventory may increase to over 3 million tons. In the long term, the traditional production - reduction season from January to February 2026 and the pre - Ramadan stocking in India are conducive to inventory reduction [77]. 3.2.3. Soybean Oil - In the short term, the fundamental support is weak. The US soybean export demand is uncertain, and the South American soybean is expected to have a good harvest. However, the current US soybean price is lower than the planting cost, and the US biodiesel policy may limit the downside. In the long term, it will fluctuate widely [77]. 3.2.4. Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, the domestic situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is accelerating reduction. In the long term, the global rapeseed supply is more abundant, and the domestic supply may become more relaxed [77]. 3.2.5. Key Data Tracking: Spreads - The report shows the historical spreads of different oil contracts, such as the 5 - month spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [84][85][86]. 3.2.6. Key Data Tracking: Warehouse Receipts - As of December 31, the registered warehouse receipts of palm oil were 260 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the end of last month; the registered warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 28,264 lots, an increase of 28,264 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3297 lots, a decrease of 668 lots [91]. 3.2.7. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Malaysia - In November 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3%; the export was 1.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; the inventory was 2.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in December [98]. 3.2.8. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Indonesia - In October 2025, the Indonesian palm oil production increased, the export decreased, and the domestic consumption increased. The ending inventory decreased to 2.33 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will remain low in 2025 [104][105]. 3.2.9. Palm Oil Import in India - In November 2025, the Indian soybean oil import decreased by 10.6% to 370,700 tons, the sunflower oil import decreased by 44.49% to 143,000 tons, the palm oil import increased by 6.34% to 630,500 tons, and the total vegetable oil import decreased by 13.3% to 1.1509 million tons. The inventory decreased. There is a possibility of an increase in imports for pre - Ramadan stocking [119]. 3.2.10. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil - The report provides high - frequency export and production data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as price data such as the domestic CPO spot price and the average price of fresh fruit bunches [121][122][123]. 3.2.11. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil (Continued) - It shows the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, palm oil and diesel, and the export tax trend of Indonesian palm oil [127][129][130]. 3.2.12. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: US Soybean - The estimated US soybean output in 25/26 is 115.75 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%). The demand has uncertainties, and the ending inventory and inventory - sales ratio are at the median level in the past five years [140]. 3.2.13. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: South American Soybean - The market maintains the expectation of a good harvest in South America. The 2025 - January - to - November Brazilian soybean export was 106 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.44%), and the January - to - October Argentine soybean export was 9.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 126.5%). The total export demand will remain high [149]. 3.2.14. Key Data Tracking of Soybean Oil - The report provides data on the US soybean shipment, net sales, export to China, and the non - commercial net long positions of US soybean and soybean oil [151][153][154]. 3.2.15. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated global rapeseed output in 25/26 is 92.273 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7.30%), and the supply is more abundant. The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies, and the supply may change depending on future policies [180][208]. 3.2.16. Cost: Oilseed Crushing Profit and Import Profit - As of December 31, the near - month Brazilian soybean crushing profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 65.5 yuan/ton, the US Gulf soybean crushing profit increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 422.56 yuan/ton, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 744 yuan/ton. The import profit of Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil increased [192]. 3.2.17. Domestic Palm Oil - In 2025, the domestic palm oil import decreased due to poor import profit. After December, the supply may decrease, which is conducive to inventory reduction. As of December 19, the inventory was 700,000 tons [198]. 3.2.18. Domestic Soybean Oil - In 2025, the domestic soybean import increased, and the soybean oil consumption decreased slightly. The inventory remained high. The seasonal decrease in import from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction will slow down the process [207]. 3.2.19. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies. The supply may become more relaxed in the future, depending on policies such as the import of Australian rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed [208]. 3.2.20. Driving Summary - In the short term, the oils and fats will fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties [216][217]. 3.2.21. Valuation - The current price of the palm oil 05 contract is at a historical high, while the prices of the soybean oil and rapeseed oil 05 contracts are at a historical low [218].

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in January, with trading mainly within a range. The price movement is likely to be limited in both upward and downward directions in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Review: Thread Iron Ore Strong, Coking Coal and Coke Weak - **Spot Market**: In December, the prices of black commodities showed a divergent trend. Among finished products, rebar prices rose while hot-rolled coil prices fell, narrowing the spread between them. Among raw materials, scrap steel prices declined slightly, coking coal and coke prices weakened significantly (coking coal dropped 12.5%), and iron ore prices were strong, rising by $2.5 per ton [12]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of black futures first declined and then rebounded in a V-shaped pattern. Rebar was stronger than hot-rolled coil, and the spread between them decreased. Iron ore was significantly stronger than coking coal and coke in the main contracts. The overall commodity market also showed a divergent trend, with the non-ferrous metals sector being notably strong [15][19]. 02. Outlook: Entering the Inventory Accumulation Period, Focus on Inventory Increase - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and there were obvious internal differences within the Fed. The inflation in the US has declined, and the unemployment rate has risen. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching the highest level in 30 years [26]. - **Domestic Economy**: Consumption and imports and exports performed well, but the decline in investment widened. In 2025, from January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year. However, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [30]. - **Infrastructure Demand**: In November, the data for broad - based infrastructure investment was weak, with a year - on - year decline of 11.91%. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed measures to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize [35]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The real estate market has not stopped declining. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and other real estate indicators such as construction area and sales area also showed significant declines [37]. - **Manufacturing Demand**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, with the production index and new order index showing significant increases [45]. - **Import and Export Demand**: In 2025, from January to November, China's steel exports reached 107.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that export license management for some steel products would be implemented starting from January 1, 2026 [49]. - **Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and rebar production was 17.295 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [55]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: In December, the demand for rebar weakened month - on - month, but the production decline was greater, and inventory was smoothly depleted. In January, steel mills are expected to resume production, while demand will seasonally weaken, and rebar will enter the inventory accumulation period [57]. 03. Strategy: Maintain a Volatile Pattern, Trade within a Range - In December, steel prices first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, basically the same as at the end of November. The raw material prices showed a pattern of iron ore > steel > coking coal and coke. In January, the market may be in a policy vacuum period. The price of rebar is expected to have limited upward and downward space, and it is difficult to break away from the volatile pattern in the short term, so trading within a range is recommended [61][62].