Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The expectation of anti - involution in the black sector has resurfaced, and the negative feedback logic has encountered obstacles. The black commodity prices rebounded strongly last Friday, but whether anti - involution policies in the steel industry will be implemented remains to be observed [3]. - For steel, it is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September. It is advisable to buy on dips as the cost - performance of short - selling is low under low valuation. For coal and coke, it is recommended to conduct range trading or short - term trading and focus on the resumption of coking coal production. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct range trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first fell and then rose last week, with raw materials stronger than finished products [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The trends are differentiated, and the volatility of the black sector is relatively small. 03 Spot Prices - The prices of rebar and scrap steel fell, while the price of iron ore rose [9][10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low [11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel inventories continued to accumulate during the off - season and have exceeded last year's levels [3][13]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, while pig iron production has dropped sharply [22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has declined significantly, and inventories have been depleted again [25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has declined slightly, and coke enterprise inventories are relatively low [27]. 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mills' on - paper profits continue to decline [29]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US employment data was lower than expected, and traders bet that the Fed would further cut interest rates. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August expanded for the first time since mid - 2022 [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term and are bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests buying on dips [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests moderately holding long positions at low levels; Aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin suggests range trading; Gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][11][16][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to run in a volatile pattern; Rubber is expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Polyolefins are expected to run in a wide - range volatile pattern; Soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [1][19][21][24][26][28][30][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to run in a volatile pattern; PTA is expected to run in a volatile pattern within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Jujubes are expected to run with a moderately weak bias [1][33][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Live pigs suggest shorting on rallies; Eggs suggest shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to run in a range - bound pattern; Soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; Oils and fats are expected to have high - level adjustments [1][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, shorting on rallies, range trading, and arbitrage [1][5][7][9][10][11][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The A - share market was volatile on Thursday. Short - term fluctuations are due to technical consolidation needs, but the adjustment is a healthy turnover rather than a trend reversal. It is bullish in the long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market has relatively low risks in the short - term. Although the bond yield has been rising recently, the stage top has appeared, and it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The pit - mouth price has increased recently. It is recommended to focus on the range of [1030 - 1230] for trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price has been rising recently. The supply - demand relationship has weakened in reality, but the price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the core range of [3000 - 3300] for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has improved recently. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract paying attention to the support level of 1110 - 1120 [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level volatile pattern. It is expected to have an upward trend in the future due to the approaching peak season. It is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or conduct a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 26 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and gold**: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased, and the prices of precious metals have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with the SHFE silver 10 contract referring to the range of 9000 - 9800 and the SHFE gold 10 contract referring to the range of 775 - 820 [17] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [19][20] - **Caustic soda**: Affected by the warehouse receipt pressure and the short - term peak of the spot price, the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. The 01 contract is expected to run within the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][23] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are under pressure, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [24][25] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, and the inventory is in a destocking cycle. It is expected to run with a moderately strong bias, paying attention to the support level of 15600 [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the support level of 1680 - 1720 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to increase. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand are both improving, but the demand improvement is relatively limited. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand from photovoltaic glass has improved. It is recommended to adopt a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [32] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global supply - demand situation has improved, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. The price is expected to be under downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33][34] - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern with a moderately strong bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 4900 [34][35] - **Apples**: The prices of early - maturing apples are higher than last year, and the market is expected to run with a moderately strong bias [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to run with a moderately weak bias [36] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is growing slowly. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 11 contract's pressure level at 13700 - 14000 and the 01 contract's pressure level at 14000 - 14300. It is also recommended to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may rebound slightly in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to run in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategy [42] - **Soybean meal**: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract [43][45] - **Oils and fats**: The short - term prices are under pressure, but the downward adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and then go long, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil having support levels at 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively [46][48][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold off [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after pull - backs; Nickel is recommended to hold off or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; Caustic soda and urea are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene is expected to oscillate weakly; Rubber is expected to oscillate strongly; Methanol and polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely [1][21][24][27][30][32][33]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to oscillate; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly [1][37][38][39]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is for range trading; Soybean meal's upside is limited; Oils are expected to adjust at high levels [1][42][44][45][47][49]. Core Views - The A - share market is expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the medium - to - long - term, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policy reforms likely to release positive effects. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support level of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - In the black building materials sector, the supply and demand of coking coal and rebar are complex, and glass demand may pick up in the short - term [7][8][9]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships. Copper and aluminum may have upward potential due to demand growth, while nickel may be under pressure [11][12][16]. - Energy chemicals are facing challenges in supply - demand balance, with PVC and styrene under pressure, and rubber showing strength [21][27]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation of cotton and PTA is complex, and apples may perform strongly [37][38]. - Agricultural and livestock products are influenced by supply - demand and seasonal factors. Hogs and eggs are under pressure, while oils may adjust at high levels [42][44][49]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The market trading activity remained high, and it is expected to oscillate upwards in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the Shanghai Composite Index's 20 - day moving average, and long positions in IH and IF with performance certainty and high dividends can be considered on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, both the equity and bond markets had increased volatility. The bond market's yield accelerated downward after the equity market reached a short - term inflection point. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold off and pay attention to the trading volume and intraday volatility of the equity market [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Safety supervision has tightened, and the coal market is in a stalemate. Port prices are falling, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 1030 - 1230 for coking coal [7][8]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated weakly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with an increase in production and inventory. It is expected to fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 for RB2601 [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased in some regions due to increased downstream replenishment. Demand has improved at the end of the month, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the support level of 1110 - 1120 for the 01 contract [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices were mainly affected by macro factors, oscillating in a high - level range. Supply has increased, and demand is resilient. It is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels, with a short - term operating range of 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. Demand is picking up in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or engage in long AD and short AL arbitrage [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron and stainless steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - **Tin**: Domestic refined tin production has increased, and tin concentrate imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Trump's influence on the Fed's independence and Powell's dovish speech, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with reference ranges of 775 - 820 for the SHFE gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the SHFE silver 10 contract [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: PVC is facing high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. Supply pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 5000 - level pressure for the 01 contract [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by warehouse receipts and short - term spot price peaks, the futures price has fallen. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention paid to the 2650 - level support for the 01 contract [24][26]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is deteriorating. Styrene inventory is abundant, and demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the 7200 - level pressure [26][27]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, and inventory is decreasing. The market price is stable and strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 15600 - level support [27][29]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short - term, with attention paid to the 1680 - 1720 support [30][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has increased, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to rise. Inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The traditional consumption peak season is coming, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Polyethylene supply pressure has eased, while polypropylene production is increasing. It is expected to have support at the bottom, with L2601 focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and PP2601 on the 6900 - 7200 range [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is sluggish, and supply is expected to remain high. Demand from photovoltaic glass is improving, while float glass sales are weakening. It is recommended to conduct short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. However, the increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [37]. - **PTA**: PTA inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility that OPEC will suspend production increases in September. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 4900 - level pressure [38]. - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price is higher than last year. The inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to remain strong [38]. - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The market price is stable, but consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [39][41]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: The pig price is under pressure due to large supply. The 01 contract may be supported by the peak - season expectation, while the 03 and 05 contracts are weaker. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and long 05 and short 03 arbitrage can be paid attention to [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. The near - month contracts may fall to correct the premium. Short positions can be considered on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts, and long - term contracts can be observed [44]. - **Corn**: It is the period of new and old crop connection, and supply is sufficient. The 11 - contract valuation should not be overly bearish. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be paid attention to [45][46]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic arrival of soybeans is abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure from state reserves sales. However, cost support limits the downside. Attention should be paid to the 3030 support of the M2601 contract [47][49]. - **Oils**: Short - term support levels for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. Long positions can be considered after the correction [49][54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: The stock index is recommended to be moderately long at low levels in the medium and long term, and government bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading, and glass is recommended to be long at low levels [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to be moderately long at low levels, aluminum is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback, nickel is recommended to be on the sidelines or short at high levels, tin is recommended for range trading, and gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][16][18] - Energy and chemicals: PVC and styrene are expected to be weakly volatile, caustic soda and rubber are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage, urea and methanol are expected to be volatile, and polyolefins are expected to be widely volatile [1][20][21][24][26][27][28][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, and jujube are expected to be volatile, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile [1][33][34][35][36] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short at high levels, corn is expected to be widely volatile, soybean meal is expected to have limited upside, and oils are expected to be adjusted at high levels [1][37][39][40][43][46] Core Views - The A - share market has short - term fluctuations but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long during corrections. The bond market lacks short - term positive drivers and is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] - The coal market price is in a stalemate, and the rebar price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. The glass market may have a phased recovery in demand and is recommended to be long at low levels [7][9] - The copper price is expected to be strong in the later stage due to the shift from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum market is recommended to be long at low levels considering the peak season demand. The nickel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term, and the tin market is recommended for range trading [10][11][16] - The PVC market is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. The caustic soda market is expected to have low - long opportunities during the peak season. The styrene market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile [20][23][24][26] - The urea price is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term. The methanol market has a supply - demand balance with increased demand from methanol - to - olefins. The polyolefin market is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28][30] - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face downward pressure in the future. The PTA market is expected to be volatile and is currently in a de - stocking stage. The apple market is expected to be strongly volatile, and the jujube market is expected to be stable [33][34][35][36] - The pig market has limited upside due to large supply, and the egg market is recommended to be short at high levels. The corn market is expected to be range - bound, the soybean meal price has limited upside, and the oil market is expected to be adjusted at high levels [37][39][40][41][43][46] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: On Tuesday, the A - share market was volatile and adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long during corrections [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued to be volatile on Tuesday. In the short term, there is a lack of positive drivers, and the downward space for interest rates is limited. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market price is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is weak, and the number of coal mines on training leave has increased, intensifying market caution [7] - Rebar: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was narrowly volatile. The fundamentals show an increase in demand, production, and inventory. The static valuation is neutral to low. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: The supply is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly in some regions. The demand has improved at the end of the month. Considering the peak season and macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be long at low levels [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level range. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and it is recommended to be moderately long at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is warming up in the peak season. It is recommended to be long at low levels [11] - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of over - supply in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and the prices of precious metals are expected to have support below. It is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support is uncertain, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by rumors and warehouse receipts, the price has fallen. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and there are low - long opportunities [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile [24] - Rubber: The cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [27] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [28] - Polyolefins: The traditional peak season is coming, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the supply pressure is relieved for polyethylene. It is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is improving. It is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase, and the price may face downward pressure. Hedging is recommended [33] - PTA: The device is under maintenance, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is in a de - stocking stage and is expected to be volatile [34] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile [35] - Jujube: The Xinjiang jujube is in the sugar - increasing stage, and the price is expected to be stable [36] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Pigs: The short - term price has a limited upside due to large supply, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high levels and consider arbitrage [37][39] - Eggs: The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to be short at high levels for near - term contracts and wait and see for far - term contracts [39][40] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended for range trading and arbitrage [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level [44][45] - Oils: The short - term price is under pressure from multiple negative factors, but there is also support. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures [1][5] - **Bearish**: Live pigs, eggs [1][40][42] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds, double cokes, rebar, glass, copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, gold, PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, polyolefins, cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, apples, dates, corn, soybean meal, oils [1][5][7][9][10][11][15][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][29][31][33][34][35][36][42][44][46] Core Views - A shares opened higher in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering its August losses and the ChiNext Index hitting a new high. The market is expected to continue to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, the approaching Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the slight increase in the August PMI [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain stable in the short term, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential for an increase in risk appetite [5]. - The coal market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand and a lack of clear supply - demand signals [7]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise in September. The market is waiting for signs of demand recovery [7]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short term due to improved demand and positive macro - sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the expected increase in demand during the peak season and the high level of domestic maintenance in September and October [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the approaching peak season and the improvement in downstream demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - The nickel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - The precious metals market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in September. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the high inventory and the uncertain export situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the rigid demand from the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to continue to rise due to the high raw material prices and the decline in inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1680 - 1720 support [28]. - The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation [30]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the global supply - demand situation and the macro - environment. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - The PTA market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the good inventory reduction and the possible suspension of OPEC's production increase in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - The apple market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to remain high due to the limited supply of high - quality early - maturing apples [36]. - The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable due to the normal progress of the sugar - increasing stage and the stable demand [36]. - The live pig market is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the new crop supply and the cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - The soybean meal market is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - The oil market is expected to be in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by various factors. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market rose on Monday. The market is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut, policy expectations, and economic data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover on Monday, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential increase in risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double Cokes**: The coal market is "mostly down and less up", with weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fell on Monday. The market is expected to be volatile in September, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to trade in bands [7]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has improved. The market is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is mainly affected by macro - factors and is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has increased, and the demand for downstream products is improving. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - **Silver and Gold**: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the expected Fed interest rate cut. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and uncertain exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term due to high raw material prices and declining inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the price support level [28]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with limited upside potential due to high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - **PTA**: The PTA market has seen good inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term [36]. - **Dates**: The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The live pig market is under pressure due to large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by new crop supply and cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - **Oils**: The oil market is in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The equity market continued its structural slow - bull trend in the month, with A - share major indices hitting new highs for the year. The "dumbbell - style" asset allocation was prominent. The policy promoted supply - side reform in over - capacity industries, and the technology growth sector regained activity. The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the coming month, and investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and capture rotation opportunities among different sectors [3][70]. - In the operation strategy, as the market has accumulated a certain increase and entered the quarterly report period, with obvious rotation characteristics, investors can buy IM on dips and use IH for defense with an appropriate position [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro Economy - **CPI Situation**: The month's CPI remained flat at a low level, mainly dragged down by the food sub - item. The core CPI continued to rise to 0.8%. The prices of industrial consumer goods and services were stronger than seasonal, driving the CPI to rise to 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the average of the past ten years. The food price decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [12]. - **PPI Situation**: The month's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with the decline remaining the same. From the demand side, extreme weather and international environment uncertainty led to a slowdown in construction and suppressed the demand for building materials. From the supply side, hydropower replaced thermal power, causing electricity prices to fall. Although the anti - involution policy narrowed the price decline in some industries, the overall price improvement was limited, highlighting the need for more demand - side policy support [13]. - **Export Situation**: The month's export increased by 7.2% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month (in US dollars). The "rush - to - export" effect was an important reason for the acceleration of exports. Exports to the US continued to be under pressure, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, India, and Latin America increased [16]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: The month's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of commodity retail decreased, and the catering industry was still weak. The real estate demand needed to be boosted, with the prices of second - hand and new houses diverging, and the investment decline continuing to widen [21]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The month's manufacturing PMI rose 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months. There was structural differentiation in sub - indicators, with the new export order index still below the boom - bust line, and the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remaining [22]. - **Policy**: The central bank maintained the LPR, and the government issued special treasury bonds to support consumer goods replacement and "two - major" construction projects. The Politburo meeting continued the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" tone, emphasizing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [27]. Market Review - **A - share Performance**: In the month, the A - share market rose unilaterally. The central bank's MLF operation increased market liquidity, driving the major indices up. The technology sector led the rise, and foreign capital showed obvious signs of return. Most industries in the Shenwan primary industry rose, with communication and electronics leading [33][34]. - **Market Style**: In the month, different styles, scales, and performance segments of the A - share market showed differential rises. The growth style index led with a 15.93% increase, and large, medium, and small - cap indices all rose by more than 10%. The market risk preference increased, and the investment concept became more rational [37]. - **Liquidity**: From the specified period, the A - share market's average daily trading volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month, and the newly established equity - oriented fund shares increased by 112.5% month - on - month, indicating increased market activity and institutional capital inflows [45]. - **Market Sentiment**: The month's market trading enthusiasm was significantly high, with daily trading volume often exceeding 1 trillion yuan. The market risk preference recovered, and the turnover rate of major indices increased, especially in the science and technology innovation and ChiNext indices [48]. Private Equity Strategy - **Basis Analysis**: The month's basis showed significant volatility, with convergence in the first half and widening in the second half. This had a significant impact on neutral strategies, both increasing risks and providing potential arbitrage opportunities [54]. - **Private Equity Sub - strategy Performance**: In the month, all private equity strategies achieved positive returns. The long - only strategy and the arbitrage strategy led with single - month returns of 18.2% and 16%, respectively [57]. - **Index - Enhancement Strategy**: In the month, the excess returns of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index - enhancement strategies showed significant differentiation. In the long - term, small and medium - cap index - enhancement strategies continued to lead [61]. - **Market Neutral Strategy**: The month's market neutral strategy environment improved, with an average return of 1.17% and about 83.87% of products achieving positive returns. The market's differentiated market provided more space for long - short hedging strategies [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to trade within a range, with the M2601 contract likely to move between 3030 and 3130 yuan/ton [5]. - The oil market is expected to have limited short - term high - level corrections and a bullish long - term outlook [72]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Supply - demand and Price Movement - As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3060 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton monthly. The basis was 01 - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract fluctuated within the range of [3030, 3200] [5]. - In the US, the soybean planting area was unexpectedly reduced to around 81 million acres. The good growth of new crops and insufficient export demand led to a volatile trend. In China, the supply of soybean meal was loose, and the cost increase from Brazilian premiums pushed up the price. After the state - owned reserve auction, the domestic soybean price was weak in November, with strong cost support around 3030 yuan/ton [5]. 1.2 Supply Side - As of August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was around 69%. The ProFarmer survey expected a yield of 53 bushels per acre, but less rainfall in August might affect the high - yield target. In mid - to - early September, there was a risk of a decline in the good - to - excellent rate and yield due to low precipitation and temperature [5]. - The state - owned reserve auction of imported soybeans for November delivery alleviated concerns about supply shortages from November to January. The meeting between China and the US also eased trade concerns. Before November, the arrival of soybeans in China remained high, and the weekly crushing volume was over 2.2 million tons, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [5]. 1.3 Demand Side - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with the feed demand increasing by more than 5% year - on - year. Due to the improved cost - effectiveness of soybean meal, the proportion of soybean meal added in feed increased by 1 percentage point year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year will increase by more than 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [5]. - As of August 22, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly to 6.8253 million tons, up 269,400 tons monthly and down 394,000 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 5.46%). The soybean meal inventory continued to increase slightly to 1.0533 million tons, up 11,700 tons monthly and down 445,300 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 29.71%) [5]. 1.4 Cost Side - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Based on the latest Brazilian premium of 285X, the exchange rate of 7.18, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.8, the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost rose to 3060 yuan/ton [5]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - The M2601 contract should be mainly traded within the range. Long positions can be established at the lower end of the range, and positions can be gradually reduced at high levels. Spot enterprises can increase their positions on a rolling basis [5]. 2. Global Soybean Supply - demand - The global soybean supply tightened as the US soybean planting area decreased, and the global soybean output was reduced to 426 million tons. With high demand, the difference between production and consumption narrowed to 1.29 million tons [6]. 3. US Soybean Inventory - sales Ratio and Demand - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio tightened as the planting area decreased, and the output dropped to 4.292 billion bushels, with the inventory - sales ratio narrowing to 6.66% [18]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.99 dollars per bushel, up 14.12% week - on - week and down 0.33% year - on - year. From 2024/25, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans reached 49.279891 million tons, with 21.4736 million tons exported to China, accounting for 43.57% [18]. 4. US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, up 1% week - on - week and higher than 67% in the same period last year [20]. 5. Brazilian Soybean Export - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT soybeans reached 88.72%, lower than 90.38% in the same period last year, but the overall sales progress was good due to the large increase in production this year [28]. 6. US Soybean Main - producing Area Climate - In the next two weeks, the main soybean - producing areas in the US will have less precipitation and lower temperatures, which is unfavorable for the improvement of the good - to - excellent rate. It is difficult for the US soybean yield to reach 53.7 bushels per acre [32]. 7. US Soybean Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 1135 cents per bushel. With a maximum loss of 150 cents per bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Supported by the planting cost and the strong international vegetable oil price, the downside space of US soybeans was limited [40]. 8. Premium and Pressing Profit - The Brazilian soybean premium was stable and strong as the sales pressure weakened at the end of the sales season, and global demand was strong. The US soybean premium was also strong due to the tightened inventory - sales ratio and demand for crushing and export [42]. - The domestic soybean import and pressing profit was in the profit range, but the pressing profit of US soybeans was in continuous loss due to the tariff increase from Sino - US trade. Domestic enterprises actively purchased Brazilian shipments from August to September, but there were no purchases of US soybean shipments after November, increasing the probability of a supply gap from November to January [47]. 9. Theoretical Cost of Soybean Meal - Based on the Olam Brazilian premium of 285X in October, the cost of soybean meal was estimated to be around 3060 yuan/ton. Using the US West Coast premium of 268SX in October, the cost was around 3020 yuan/ton [50]. 10. Soybean Purchase and Arrival - The purchase of near - term shipments was progressing steadily and quickly, with the purchase progress of September shipments reaching 100%. The purchase of long - term shipments was slow due to the loss of pressing profit and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade [56]. - Before September, the arrival of soybeans in China was around 10 million tons, with sufficient supply and a stockpiling trend. After November, insufficient arrivals might lead to a phased price increase [56]. 11. Demand for Soybean Meal - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for soybean meal, with the bottom demand support strengthened [70]. 12. Oil Market 12.1 Price Movement - As of August 29, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 yuan/ton to 9316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 yuan/ton to 8358 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 yuan/ton to 9789 yuan/ton. The prices of the three major oils first rose sharply and then fell back [74]. 12.2 Palm Oil - In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production growth was limited, and the inventory accumulation speed might slow down. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in June, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. However, the high - level adjustment risk of Malaysian palm oil remained, and the 11 - contract bottom was expected to be between 4400 - 4300. In China, the short - term supply was loose, but the inventory might decrease after October [74]. 12.3 Soybean Oil - The estimated yield of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 53 bushels per acre, and the harvest pressure was increasing. However, the reduction of the sown area in the USDA August report tightened the supply - demand, and the support above the cost line of 1000 cents per bushel was strong. The short - term US soybean 11 - contract was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the bottom between 1040 - 1050. In China, the soybean supply was sufficient before October, but it might tighten after November, which could drive the soybean oil inventory to decrease [74]. 12.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed tightened the domestic supply before November. However, the improvement of Sino - Australian relations and potential Sino - Canadian negotiations might affect the market. In Canada, the supply might be excessive due to the loss of the Chinese market and expected high - yield [74]. 12.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction phase and go long after the correction [74].

【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/9/1 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比减少88吨至20350吨，7月产量环比增加5.8%至85690吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产3 个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间极 为有限，主流澳矿基本均已下调25财年资本开支。海外进口方面，2025年7月中国锂矿石进口数量为75.1万吨，环比增加30.3%，其 中进口量前三的国家分别为澳大利亚、尼日利亚、南非，从澳大利亚进口约为42.7万吨，环比增加67%，同比增加12.8%。从津巴布 韦进口锂矿量约6.4万吨，环比减少36%，从尼日利亚进口锂矿11.6万，环比增加47%。7月碳酸锂进口量为1.4万吨，环比减少22%， 自智利进口碳酸锂0.9万吨，占比62%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is mainly influenced by macro - factors, showing a high - level range - bound and strong trend. With the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the copper price may have an upward space [3]. - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, changes in alumina production capacity, and demand recovery. It is recommended to go long on aluminum at low prices and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. - The zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand recovery. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The lead price is in a short - term weak and range - bound situation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [3]. - The nickel market is in a long - term supply surplus situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and conduct range trading for stainless steel [4]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak demand in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to supply and demand changes [4]. - The industrial silicon market has high risks before the release of the photovoltaic conference results. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream production reduction and downstream production scheduling [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **8/25 - 8/31 Economic Data**: The US economic data is mixed, with some indicators better than expected and some worse. For example, the US 7 - month Chicago Fed National Activity Index was - 0.19, worse than the forecast of - 0.11; the 7 - month durable goods orders had a month - on - month initial value of - 2.8%, better than the forecast of - 3.80% [11]. - **Policies and Events**: The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", aiming to promote the integration of AI in multiple fields. Trump removed the Fed governor, which may affect the Fed's independence [12][14]. - **9/1 - 9/7 Forecast Data**: Forecasts for economic data such as China's and the euro - zone's PMIs, and US employment data are provided, but the actual values are not given [17]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price is in a high - level range - bound and strong trend, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market supply has increased, while downstream replenishment is cautious. The apparent consumption shows the resilience of demand [3]. - **Inventory**: LME and US COMEX copper inventories are increasing, while the domestic inventory is relatively stable [3]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price is in a high - level range - bound and upward - trending state. The short - term operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 - 20,950 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased steadily. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [3]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is high. The downstream consumption recovery is not significant, and enterprises mainly make rigid purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons from August 21 [3]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price is in a short - term weak - range - bound state, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the SHFE lead inventory has increased. The downstream lead consumption is insufficient, and the market is sensitive to price changes [3]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price is in a range - bound state in the short - term, with a reference operating range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, and the nickel market is in a surplus state. The demand for nickel iron has certain support, and the downstream of stainless steel mainly makes rigid purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover gradually [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventories are at a medium level and have increased [4]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price is in a wide - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the production of polysilicon has also increased. The production of organic silicon has decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, while the three - port inventory has remained flat [4]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range - bound state, and it is recommended to trade carefully [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by mining license issues, and the demand for energy storage terminals is good [4]. - **Inventory**: No specific inventory information is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space is limited. The import is expected to continue to increase, while the downstream demand presents a mixed situation. The overall aluminum price is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, peak - season expectations, and capacity ceilings. It is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally, and it is better to enter the market to buy on dips. The strategy of going long on AD or going long on AD and short on AL is recommended [74]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In August, the overall trend of Shanghai aluminum was oscillating upward within a high - level range. In the early part of the month, factors such as weak US labor market data, dovish remarks from Fed officials, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, along with rumors of policy changes and strong export data, supported the price increase. However, factors like weak social financing data, inventory accumulation, and geopolitical events led to price corrections and oscillations. Towards the end of the month, dovish remarks from the Fed chairman and improved downstream demand expectations drove the price up [6]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Fed has a series of interest - rate adjustment histories, and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also had multiple interest - rate cuts. Macroeconomic indicators such as manufacturing PMIs in the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, and inflation indicators like PCE and HICP have fluctuated [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth shows certain trends, and social financing scale and its components have different performances. The leverage ratios of different sectors also have their own characteristics. Manufacturing PMIs, exchange rates, inflation indicators (CPI, PPI), and foreign trade data all reflect the domestic economic situation. China's export and import data in July 2025 showed growth, but the export growth may slow down in September due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs [19][25]. 3.3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Mining activities in Shanxi and Henan are restricted due to safety and environmental supervision, and prices are expected to remain high in September as domestic mine capacity is limited and imported ore supply is temporarily tightened [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite increased significantly. Guinea is the largest supplier. The price of Guinea's bauxite increased slightly in late August. The rainy season in Guinea and uncertainties in mine复产 have supported the ore price [31]. - **Alumina**: By the end of August, the built - in capacity and operating capacity of alumina increased. The domestic spot weighted index decreased. Newly - put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing. In September, although the output and inventory are increasing rapidly, the impact from the Guinea mine end will limit the downward space, and the price is expected to oscillate around the current level [34]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: By the end of August, the built - in and operating capacities of electrolytic aluminum increased. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space within the year is limited [37]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum increased significantly. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs, the expansion of 232 tariffs, and the approaching domestic demand peak season, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase [40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In August, the production cost decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable in September [42]. 3.5. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles is high. In September, with the expansion of the trade - in policy and the peak production and sales season, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to increase [50]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, and sales area all declined year - on - year, and the market is still weak despite policy efforts [53]. - **Infrastructure**: The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first seven months is fast, and grid investment has increased significantly. In September, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to be strongly boosted [56]. - **Household Appliances**: In July 2025, the production and export of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed different trends. In September, with the seasonal strength of production and sales and the expansion of the trade - in policy, the demand for aluminum in household appliances is expected to remain stable [59]. - **Photovoltaic**: In June 2025, the new - installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased significantly. After the end of the rush - installation period, the new - installed capacity is expected to remain low in September, and the demand for aluminum will also be low [62]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In July 2025, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US rush - import demand, aluminum product exports may decrease month - on - month [65]. 3.6. Inventory - The downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the overall inventory shows an accumulation trend [66]. 3.7. Aluminum Price Trend Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, and the import will supplement the domestic supply. The demand situation varies in different downstream industries. The cost is expected to remain stable. The aluminum price increase is mainly due to market expectations, and it is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally. Attention should be paid to inventory destocking [74].