Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The market for these commodities shows a pattern of strong supply - demand dynamics, but is also subject to various influencing factors such as policies, production capacity, and profit margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar continued to rise significantly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 113 (-33) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the recent apparent demand for rebar decreased by 153,300 tons month - on - month, production decreased by 76,000 tons, and inventory increased by 28,900 tons. The contradiction in the off - season demand is not obvious, and supply and demand remain relatively balanced [1]. - **Outlook**: The futures price of rebar has risen to near the cost of electric arc furnaces at flat electricity prices, and the static valuation has been restored to a neutral level. In terms of driving factors, macroscopically, attention should be paid to whether there are relevant policy signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Industrially, the current supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of iron ore rose significantly. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton (+13). The Platts 62% index was 104.85 US dollars/ton (+1.90), with a monthly average of 97.91 US dollars/ton. The basis of PBF was 22 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.479 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.3. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22.60737 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 138.16. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63. The supply side has not changed significantly, while the demand side is relatively strong [1]. - **Outlook**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the tariff truce period may be further extended. The futures price is starting to recover to the level before the friction. With the increasing policy expectations for the end - of - month meeting, the iron ore futures price has reached a new high in stages. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas are restricted by accidents and underground conditions, and the production release rhythm is still slow. The overall supply recovery process of coking coal has not met expectations. In terms of imports, driven by the sharp rise in the domestic futures market, Mongolian coal traders are optimistic, and the prices of mainstream coal types such as Mongolian 5 raw coal have risen significantly [3]. - **Demand**: The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and with macro - level positive stimuli, the futures market of the black series has risen sharply. Coke enterprises and traders are actively transporting, and coal mine sales are generally smooth. Steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand remains strong. However, downstream enterprises are a bit cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the inventory - increasing rhythm is still restricted to some extent [3]. - **Port Situation**: Affected by the policy documents from the production areas and the futures limit - up, the market sentiment is high. Futures - cash combined traders have mostly suspended quoting prices and are holding back goods [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply side recovers slowly, and the demand side is driven by coke price increases and improved profits of finished products. The short - term price support is strong. Attention should be paid to the coal mine复产 progress, the sustainability of coke price increases, and the steel mills' profit situation [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: Recently, coke enterprises in the production areas have successively launched a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the black - series futures market, the price of coking coal has also risen, and the immediate cost of coke enterprises has increased significantly. However, the rise of coke prices lags behind, resulting in a continuous compression of the profit margins of most coke enterprises, and some are in a state of inversion. There may be a further reduction in production in the future [3]. - **Demand**: With the continuous rise of steel prices, steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand for coke remains strong. However, steel mills in the southwest region are affected by the sales pressure of finished products, with weak terminal demand and narrow profit margins. Some enterprises may even face losses and may have maintenance plans in the future [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coke market shows obvious supply - demand game characteristics. The supply side is restricted by cost squeeze and profit inversion, and the demand side has different acceptance levels for price increases due to regional differentiation and profit limitations. In the short term, the implementation rhythm of the second - round price increase may be affected by the steel mills' profit repair progress and regional demand differentiation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of coke enterprises' production, the sustainability of steel mills' profit improvement, and the terminal demand for steel [3]. 3.5. Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.4245 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 315,000 tons. The inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and has reached the peak since the beginning of the year [6]. - In June 2025, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 3.57% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.82% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.96% year - on - year; and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.27% year - on - year [6]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the domestic sales production plan was 651,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%; the export production plan was 464,500 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [6]. - On July 22nd, a notice about "coal mine production verification" circulated in the market. The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration has issued a notice to organize a verification of coal mine production in eight provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable and orderly coal supply. The content of the notice is true, but the start time of the verification is uncertain [6]. - The hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to have an installed capacity 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. It is estimated that the cement demand will be more than 40 million tons and the sand and gravel aggregate demand will be about 150 million tons [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For rebar, pay attention to policies from the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. For iron ore, consider the impact of Sino - US trade relations and domestic industrial policies. For coking coal, focus on the influence of environmental protection, accidents, and market demand. For coke, be aware of the impact of steel market conditions, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Rebar - On Monday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3370 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+3). The recent apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, production decreased by 7.60 tons, and inventory increased by 2.89 tons. The futures price has risen to the cost level of valley - electricity for electric furnaces, with static valuation restored to a neutral level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures price rose significantly. The PB powder price at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton (+18), the Platts 62% index was 100.20 dollars/ton (-0.05), and the monthly average was 97.06 dollars/ton. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2479 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22607.37 tons, a decrease of 138.16 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons. The supply has no obvious change, while the demand is relatively strong. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Coking Coal - The supply is affected by environmental protection policies and accidents, with limited incremental supply and blocked capacity release. The Mongolian port customs clearance is gradually recovering, and the port trading atmosphere is active. The demand is strong due to positive macro news and high purchasing enthusiasm from steel and coking enterprises. The coking coal market is expected to continue to operate strongly in the short - term [3]. Coke - The supply is contracting, with coking enterprises maintaining normal production and low inventory. The demand shows a multi - dimensional differentiation. The cost of raw coal is rising, and some coking enterprises plan to start the second price increase. The coke market is expected to operate strongly in the short - term, but beware of the impact of the weak steel market [3]. Industry News - From July 19th to 20th, steel enterprises at the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprise Summit Forum agreed to "strengthen self - discipline and control production". - The July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Anhui Province issued access standards for the mining and dressing of 14 minerals, including iron ore. - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the order backlog at the end of June increased by 36.7% year - on - year. - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to move up in a volatile manner, and government bonds are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to wait and see; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][11][13][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; soda ash is recommended to wait and see; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][25][26]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1][37][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; corn is expected to have high - level fluctuations; soybean meal and oils are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43]. Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic factors, to predict the price trends of these futures products. Traders are advised to adjust their investment strategies according to the characteristics and influencing factors of each product. Summaries by Catalog Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: There is a slow - bull market with a possible double - top situation. The market is affected by factors such as US - EU trade issues, Chinese housing policies, and large - scale hydropower projects [6]. - **Government Bonds**: The current loose capital situation supports the bond market, but the short - term upward space is limited due to the increase in market risk appetite. It is necessary to wait for the cooling of the stock and commodity markets to consider layout. Short - term long - bond strategies are not recommended [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. Although the price has risen to a certain level, the fundamentals are in a relatively balanced state. It is necessary to pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The increase in industry - related meetings and the increase in blast furnace复产 have positive impacts on the raw material side. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is strong [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. For coking coal, the supply is affected by environmental protection and accidents, and the demand is strong. For coke, the supply is in a contraction state, and the demand is multi - dimensional. It is necessary to pay attention to steel mill profits and cost fluctuations [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US copper import tariff policy, domestic consumption season, and economic situation affect the price. The supply is expected to increase, which will restrict the price increase [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fall and then stabilize. The supply of bauxite and alumina is expected to change, and the demand is affected by the season. The arrival of aluminum ingots will increase, and the high price will suppress demand [13]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply of the nickel industry is in an over - supply situation, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply of tin ore has improved limitedly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US economic data, geopolitical situation, and tariff policy affect the price. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the supply is high and the export sustainability is uncertain, the current policy expectations are dominant. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - data, export, inventory, and raw material prices [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - factors and the relationship between supply and demand [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply has a resumption and future production increase expectations, and the demand has the risk of weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to oil prices, raw material supply, and macro - policies [24][25]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The macro - environment and cost factors support the price, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to production area weather and downstream demand [26][28]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand has certain support, and the inventory is decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the relationship between supply and demand [30]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand of methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - demand relationship [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a slight decline. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies, cost, and downstream demand [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is under pressure. Although the short - term macro - drive is strong, the long - term support is uncertain [36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the downstream consumption is light, the spot market is tight [37]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to move sideways. The trading in the production area is cautious, and the sales area is affected by competing fruits. The low - inventory situation supports the high - level range movement [38]. - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to be stable. The new - season production in the production area is in the growth stage, and the sales area has low arrivals and general consumption [38]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is affected by factors such as seasonality, government policies, and enterprise production [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to go long on dips. The short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the long - term supply may increase [42][43]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to have high - level fluctuations. The short - term supply is relatively loose, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to be cautious about bottom - fishing and pay attention to 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term cost and supply - demand contradictions may stimulate the price to rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [45][46]. - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [46][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 18, news of industrial equipment renewal and technological transformation boosted the commodity market, leading to price increases in PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. [2][3][6] - PVC's supply - demand remains weak overall, but is currently driven by policy expectations and shows a slightly stronger oscillation. Caustic soda's spot is stable with a weakening trend, while the far - month contract has support. Styrene has limited fundamental positives and shows a short - term strong oscillation. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillation. Urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash has strong short - term macro driving forces, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [2][3][6][7][9][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PVC - **Price**: On July 21, the PVC 09 contract closed at 5118 yuan/ton (+181), with various market prices rising. [2] - **Cost**: Profit is at a low level, coal has a short - term rebound, oil is firm, and the proportion of ethylene method is about 30%. [2] - **Supply**: Summer production is higher than spring, and there is significant production capacity pressure in the third quarter (planned about 1 million tons). [2] - **Demand**: The real estate is weak, domestic demand depends on soft products and new industries. Exports set a record high in the first half of the year but may be over - drawn, and there are risks of weakening support. [2] - **Macro**: Overseas factors and domestic policies affect the market, and overall policy expectations have slightly improved. [2] - **Summary**: The de - stocking in the first half was due to export growth, but the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply - demand is weak, and it is currently driven by policy expectations, with attention on the 5050 line support. [2] Caustic Soda - **Price**: On July 21, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2569 yuan/ton (+100), with some market prices changing. [3] - **Macro**: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical industry equipment renewal needs attention. [3] - **Supply**: Production is at a high level, inventory is neutral, and supply is abundant. There are few maintenance plans in July - August, and attention should be paid to load reduction due to liquid chlorine tank fullness. [3] - **Demand**: Downstream resistance to high prices exists, non - aluminum demand is weak, and exports have phased orders. In the long run, demand from alumina plants will increase marginally. [3] - **Summary**: Supply is high, the spot is stable with a weakening trend, the near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract has support from macro sentiment and peak - season demand. [3] Styrene - **Price**: On July 21, the styrene main contract was 7347 yuan/ton (+63), and spot prices also changed. [6] - **Cost**: Oil prices oscillate in the short term. Pure benzene has planned production capacity and high import expectations, and port inventory is high, limiting the rebound height. [6] - **Supply**: Port inventory is accumulating, and there are plans for large - scale production capacity in the future. [6] - **Demand**: Downstream production capacity growth is high, but profit and demand are weakening. Exports and domestic demand are affected by different factors. [6] - **Macro**: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical policies needs attention. [6] - **Summary**: Fundamental positives are limited, and it shows a short - term strong oscillation, with attention on the 7300 line support. [6] Rubber - **Inventory**: As of July 20, Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased. China's natural rubber social inventory had different changes in different categories. [7] - **Production**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and full - steel tire enterprises changed. [7] - **Raw Material Price**: Thai and domestic raw material prices are provided. [7] - **Market Price**: Natural rubber market prices increased, and the basis also changed. [7][8] - **Summary**: Supported by macro and cost factors, rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation. [7] Urea - **Price**: The 09 contract rose 3.07% to close at 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [9] - **Supply**: The supply load rate was 83.48%, with daily output of 19.55 tons. [9] - **Cost**: The anthracite market price was stable and strong, and coal consumption was supported. [9] - **Demand**: Summer farming is almost over. The operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and other industrial demands were stable. [9] - **Inventory**: Enterprise and port inventories decreased, and there were 2523 registered warehouse receipts. [9] - **Summary**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased marginally, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1850. [9] Methanol - **Price**: The 09 contract rose 1.56% to close at 2411 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. [10] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, and weekly output decreased. Port arrivals are expected to be 50,000 tons. [10] - **Cost**: The thermal coal market price is expected to rise. [10] - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefins industry's operation rate increased, while traditional downstream demand is weak. [10] - **Inventory**: Sample enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. [10] - **Summary**: Supply is tight in some areas, demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry increases, and prices are expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2450. [10] Polyolefins - **Price**: On July 21, the L and PP main contracts closed at 7290 yuan/ton and 7091 yuan/ton respectively, and various product prices changed. [11] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene and PP changed, and this week's maintenance losses were 120,500 tons. [11] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the off - season, with some industries' operation rates changing. [11] - **Inventory**: Plastic enterprise social inventory increased, and PP inventory decreased in some parts. [11] - **Summary**: Macro factors boost the market, cost - profit is stable, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are expected to rebound with limited strength, with specific price ranges to be concerned. [11] Soda Ash - **Price**: Affected by news, the night - session futures price increased significantly, and current market prices are provided. [12] - **Supply**: Some devices are under maintenance or reduced load, while others increase load, and daily output remains high. [12] - **Demand**: Float glass sales improved, while photovoltaic glass has seen many cold repairs, and the industry calls for a 30% production cut. [12] - **Summary**: Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to strong short - term macro driving forces. [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move sideways, and treasury bonds are expected to strengthen sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for light - short attempts, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be weak in a sideways trend; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have a wide - range sideways movement [1][19][21][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a sideways trend, apples are expected to move sideways, and PTA is expected to move sideways within a range [1][35][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies, corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360], soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips, and oils are recommended for shorting on rallies [1][38][40][42]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. It suggests that different futures markets will show different trends, such as sideways movement, strengthening, or weakening, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". After the negotiation benefits come to an end, the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts, and domestic stock indices are expected to move sideways [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the continuous loosening of the capital market, rumors of continued inquiry and renewal of repurchase - style reverse repos, and the conclusion of Sino - US consultations, the market's buying power has further increased. The bond market is expected to strengthen sideways, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The fundamentals show that the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. In the later stage, there may be a slight accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the price will move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is supported by steel mill production and Sino - US negotiations. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is more affected by macro - news. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended to observe [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose. The short - term market is expected to continue to move sideways. Attention should be paid to factors such as coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [8][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not made a breakthrough, but the US information is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. The domestic copper market has low inventory and weak consumption. It is expected to move sideways at a high level, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: Guinea's mine - end disturbances have not yet affected the current supply of bauxite, but the impact cannot be ignored. The downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is complex. The nickel ore market is tight, but the downstream demand is weak. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected to move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, but the US tariff policy suppresses downstream demand. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: US economic data shows resilience, and the tariff policy causes market concerns. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices of precious metals. It is expected that the prices will continue to move sideways, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the supply pressure is large. The inventory is currently being reduced, and the macro - factors are dominant. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation progress and domestic stimulus policies [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The non - aluminum off - season reduces the purchasing willingness for high - priced caustic soda. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by the strong oil price and is expected to continue to rebound, but the overall valuation is high, and the supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [25]. - **Rubber**: The terminal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals lack effective drivers. It is expected to move sideways, and attention should be paid to macro - news [26]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is limited. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weak in a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [29]. - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the main downstream demand is okay, but there are maintenance plans for olefin devices, and the traditional downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend [31]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure remains, the demand enters the traditional off - season, and the inventory has different trends. It is expected to move sideways in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and domestic policies [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the downstream market is not good, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [34]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but the recent improvement in Sino - US relations is expected to cause the cotton price to rebound in a sideways trend [35]. - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the apple market is average, and the market is affected by factors such as the off - season and the impact of other fruits. It is expected to move sideways [35]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure. It is expected to move sideways within a range [36]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term pig price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply pressure may be relieved. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. The medium - and long - term supply - demand tightens, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to substitutes [43]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by US soybean weather, and the medium - and long - term is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [45]. - **Oils**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed. Different oils have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For PVC, the rating implies a weak outlook with a forecast of weak and volatile trading, suggesting a cautious approach [2]. - For caustic soda, the mid - term outlook is weak, recommending short - selling the 09 contract [3]. - For styrene, it is recommended to short on rebounds due to high valuation and loose supply - demand [5]. - For soda ash, a short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. Each product has its own unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and market drivers [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On June 11, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4832 yuan/ton (+22). The long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints. Supply pressure is high with new investment plans in Q3. The market is macro - driven, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on the 4850 yuan/ton resistance level [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 11, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (+8). Supply is high with some new installations expected, and there are mid - June to early - July maintenance periods. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in a slow season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the 09 contract recommended for short - selling, focusing on the 2400 yuan/ton resistance [3]. Styrene - On June 11, the styrene contract was at 7349 yuan/ton (+3). Short - term it may rebound due to strong oil prices, but with high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, with the price range of 6900 - 7700 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - On June 11, the rubber market oscillated. The price has rebounded due to macro - sentiment but lacks fundamental support. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the focus on macro - news [6]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.48% to 1667 yuan/ton. Supply is high, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue weakening, with the 09 contract operating in the 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton range [7][8]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.18% to 2282 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, the main downstream demand (methanol - to - olefins) is okay but has some planned maintenance, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Inventory is rising, and the 09 contract is expected to trade in the 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton range [9]. Polyolefins - On June 11, the L and PP contracts closed at 7102 yuan/ton and 6960 yuan/ton respectively. Supply is under pressure with capacity expansion in June - July. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 in the 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton range and PP2509 in the 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton range [10][11]. Soda Ash - The spot market is weak, with prices falling. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production from maintenance. Downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. The upside potential of the futures is limited, and a short position is recommended for the 01 contract [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may accumulate inventory slightly in the later stage. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to low valuation and a shift to looser supply - demand [1]. - Iron ore is supported by continuous steel mill production and negotiations. The price is mainly affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. - The coking coal market supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - term market may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to coal mine inventory, coking enterprise profit, and steel terminal demand [3]. - The coke supply - demand pattern remains loose. Although supply has a marginal contraction, demand support is weak. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Rebar - On Wednesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 139 (-7) [1]. - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The production of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion slowed down [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price has fallen near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 724 yuan/wet ton (+55), the Platts 62% index was 95.75 dollars/ton (+0.80), and the PBF basis was 57 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04 [1]. - The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal is in a loose pattern. Some coal mines have staged production cuts, but most maintain normal production. The procurement of the intermediate link is cautious, and the signing of coal mines is average [3]. - The downstream procurement of Mongolian coal is cautious, and the actual transactions at the port are cold. After the third round of coke price cuts, coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and steel mills mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis [3]. - The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal mine inventory depletion, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [3]. Coke - The production of coking enterprises shows a differentiated pattern. Most maintain normal operation, but there is some passive production reduction due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - The steel market is entering the off - season, terminal demand is limited, and steel mills' rigid demand for coke exists but with insufficient growth. Some steel mills purchase cautiously and replenish inventory as needed [3]. - The coke market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. Industry News - From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44% [6]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [6]. - As of the end of May, more than 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued nationwide, completing over 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan stock implicit debt replacement quota for this year [6].