1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons last week, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and mines in Yichun and Qinghai are facing permit review. Overseas imports in December 2025 showed an 8.1% month - on - month increase in lithium concentrate imports, and a 9% increase in lithium carbonate imports. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. - It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust. Although the demand for exports is strong and the destocking trend continues, the supply is expected to be supplemented by South American lithium salt imports. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, the price will likely remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons, and January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and Yichun and Qinghai production enterprises received mine permit review notices. Some mines in Jiangxi may face shutdown. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, an 8.1% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium carbonate imports in December were 23,989 tons, a 9% month - on - month increase [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers purchasing lithium ore face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. Demand - The overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine permits. January's domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3% month - on - month. December's lithium concentrate imports were 789,000 tons, an 8.1% month - on - month increase, and lithium carbonate imports were about 24,000 tons, an 8.7% month - on - month increase and a 14.4% year - on - year decrease. Strong downstream demand for exports and the destocking trend continue. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. - From the demand side, the production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while it increased significantly in January due to export rush. The cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. There are continuous risks in Yichun's mine permits. With profit restoration, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, and the pre - demand for battery exports drives downstream production increase. Inventory continues to decline, and South American lithium salt shipments increase. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at Yichun's mine end. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, production of ternary materials, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, market price of ternary materials, and import volume of lithium carbonate [8][9][11][12][16][18][20][27][29][30][33][34]. - In 2026 January, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The four major stock indices may rebound and then fluctuate. Considering the long Spring Festival holiday, it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [11]. - The bond market has no obvious major negative factors and is generally oscillating upward. However, there is no further impetus to drive interest rates down. The bond market may move in a relatively narrow range and wait for the emergence of the next - stage main line [13]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the recovery of production lacks clear demand support. The inventory shows a continuous accumulation trend. High raw material prices may affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [19]. - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026 [22]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened [32]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation [35]. - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In January, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the four major stock indices were under pressure and declined [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the stock index may move in a fluctuating manner [11]. - Strategy outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a range - bound manner [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main - contract treasury bonds rose by 0.42%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main - contract of treasury bonds may move in a fluctuating manner [13]. - Strategy outlook: Treasury bonds are expected to move in a fluctuating manner [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. The recovery of production is mainly due to the improvement of upstream industry operations and a slight strengthening of export orders, but there is no clear demand improvement support [19]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026, including the low - base effect, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [22]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly to 6.6%, with a month - on - month growth of 8.3%. The annual export growth exceeded expectations mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, turning negative from positive. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses increased [32]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation. The reasons include the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods [35]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In December 2025, the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations focusing on structural tools [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - **Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8)**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - **Policy and news**: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - **Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15)**: It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - **Market review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - **Market review**: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - **Market review**: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - **Market review**: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - **Trend analysis**: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. Urea's检修装置 has复产 plans, leading to an increase in daily output and supply. Agricultural demand is gradually limited, and industrial demand shows a mixed trend with a narrow fluctuation in compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in melamine operating rate. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market are gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises have a decent backlog of orders. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea's futures price fluctuated weakly, while the spot price moved slightly upward. On February 6, the closing price of the Urea 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous week, with a maximum of 1798 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1766 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous week. [2][5] - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On February 6, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 32 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-46) - (-27) yuan/ton. [2][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea strengthened. On February 6, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 32 - 38 yuan/ton. [2][9] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 87.98%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 64.6%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 20.99 tons. Some overhauled devices in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong resumed production or increased production, and the daily output reached around 210,000 tons, with sufficient supply of goods. [2][12] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of anthracite coal in the market was slightly stronger on a stable basis. As of February 5, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 9.66%. The mainstream price of the urea spot market moved upward, and the urea production profit remained stable. [2][16] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 6.5 days, and the weekly production - sales ratio of urea enterprises was 99.6%. Agricultural demand was gradually limited. In terms of industrial demand, the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of melamine decreased. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market were gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises had a decent backlog of orders. [2][17][18] 3.2.4 Industrial Demand - The production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 749,300 tons, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Winter storage shipments continued to slow down, some fertilizer enterprises reduced production, and the growth rate of spot inventory slowed down. As the Spring Festival approaches next week, some fertilizer enterprises will stop production for holidays as planned, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers may continue to decline. [2][22] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.83%, a decrease of 3.65 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 32,080 tons. This week, new devices in Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Phase II, Shandong Heli Tai, and Xinjiang Yuxiang Huyang were shut down for maintenance. The D - area of Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui and Anhui Jinhe had resumed production after short - term shutdowns. [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened. [26] 3.2.5 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 241,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, equivalent to 217,200 tons, an increase of 1,599 receipts or 31,980 tons compared with the same period last year. [2][29] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and overhaul of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

指标 最新价 涨跌幅 上证综指 4,065.58 -0.25% 深圳成指 13,906.73 -0.33% 沪深 300 4,643.60 -0.57% 上证 50 3,037.86 -0.69% 中证 500 8,146.41 0.00% 中证 1000 5,903.58 0.25% 日经指数 54,253.68 0.81% 道琼指数 50,115.67 2.47% 标普 500 6,932.30 1.97% 纳斯达克 23,031.21 2.18% 美元指数 97.6136 -0.36% 人民币 6.9401 -0.01% 纽约黄金 4,988.60 3.97% WTI 原油 63.55 0.41% LME 铜 13,060.00 1.59% LME 铝 3,110.00 2.78% LME 锌 3,383.00 2.56% LME 铅 1,965.50 0.59% LME 镍 17,235.00 1.03% 数据来源： 同花顺，长江期货 南华商品指数 期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国 ...

铝产业链周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-9 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 山西河南地区铝土矿价格整体平稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳于61.5美元/干吨。氧化铝运行产能周度环比减少80 万吨至9425万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加7.9万吨至519.3万吨。临近春节假期，全国氧化铝运行产能有一定程度波动。广 西区域2家前期检修的氧化铝企业将陆续复产；山西区域2家前期计划检修的氧化铝企业将检修。此外，市场传河北某氧化铝大厂焙 烧端波动，继续关注。电解铝运行产能周度环比增加4.2万吨至4467.6万吨。随着铝价走强，未来电解铝供应正在超预期增加。新 投产能方面，天山铝业一阶段12万吨产能已经达产，二阶段8万吨仍在建设中，预计年内全面达产，扎铝35万吨将建成投产、 2026年全面达产，此外广西隆林正加快盘活5.71万吨闲置产能，市场传辽宁某电解铝企业可能复产。海外方面，11日，印尼北加 电解铝项目首批 ...

2026/2/9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 2026-01-02 2026-02-02 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，美国初 请失业金人数激增，黄金价格反弹。截至上周五，美黄 金报收4989美元/盎司，周内上涨1.7%，关注上方压力 位5050，下方支撑位4750。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 37.000 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Industrial Policy Boosts, Macroeconomic Disturbance Continues [1] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%. The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined last week. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [8][36] 1.3 Demand Side - The copper foil production rate increased against the trend, and the production rate of refined copper rods increased with the decline in copper prices. In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [9][40] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and LME and COMEX copper inventories reached high levels. As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [10][47] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Fundamentally, the shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope, which boosts market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production rates of downstream enterprises gradually decline, and the overall demand weakens. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. It is expected that the inventory pressure at home and abroad will further increase after the holiday. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached a new high since February 2022. According to data released on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. An index above 50 means economic activity expansion, and the latest reading also exceeded all survey expectations of economists by the media. US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one-year high but remained in the contraction zone. The prices paid index reached a four-month high [16] - Trump plans to invest $12 billion to stockpile critical minerals. US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a strategic critical minerals stockpiling plan worth a total of $12 billion, aiming to protect US manufacturers from supply chain shocks by establishing a commercial inventory mechanism and further strengthen national industrial security. According to media reports, this plan called "Project Vault" will provide a $10 billion loan through the US Export-Import Bank, combined with $1.67 billion in private capital, to purchase and store minerals for automobile manufacturers, technology companies, and other manufacturing giants. This will be the first such stockpiling project in the US private sector, not only setting a record in scale but also operating in a similar mode to the country's strategic petroleum reserve [17] - The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. On February 4, according to data released by the ADP Research Institute, the US private sector added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 45,000 and also lower than the revised previous value (the increase in December was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000). If not for the surge of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare services industries, the overall employment might have declined. By industry, many sectors showed a contraction trend. Among them, the professional and business services industry significantly reduced 57,000 positions, and the manufacturing industry also cut 8,000 jobs. The report continued the weak trend since the end of 2025, indicating that the employment market remained in a stalemate of "low recruitment, low layoffs" [17] - The US ISM services PMI in January reached a new high since 2024. Data released by the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the services PMI index in January was 53.8, the same as in December and also the same as the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. An index above 50 indicates that the US service industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, is in an expansion state. US service enterprises achieved the strongest continuous growth momentum since 2024 in January. With the recovery of business activities, the expansion momentum of the service industry increased [18] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year. Data released by the Chilean National Statistics Institute (INE) showed that Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 540,221 tons. The country's manufacturing output in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year [20] - Capstone Copper restarted its Mantoverde copper-gold mine during a continuous strike. According to foreign media on February 2, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Monday that although a strike by a union representing nearly 22% of its employees was still ongoing, its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile had resumed operations. The company reiterated in a document submitted to the Australian Stock Exchange on February 1 that it expected the mine's operating capacity during the strike to remain at 50% to 75% of the normal production level. Previously, union employees rejected Capstone's latest salary proposal, causing the strike that began in January to continue to ferment, and the strike is still ongoing, and the dispute between the two sides has thus escalated. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of cathode copper, accounting for about 0.4% of global copper production [20] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects. At the press conference on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2025 held by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Deputy Secretary-General Duan Shaofu of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that the industry will solidly promote the governance of copper smelting capacity. Currently, more than 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been stopped in China, and the excessive growth momentum of copper smelting capacity has been effectively curbed. The industry association will continue to cooperate with relevant national departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects and improve the situation of the increasing external procurement ratio from the source [20] - Anglo American's copper production in 2025 decreased by 10% year-on-year, and it lowered its copper production targets for 2026 - 2027. According to foreign media on February 5, the latest report released by Anglo American showed that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's copper production was 169,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. This was due to the lower ore grades of the Quellaveco and Collahuasi mines. The annual copper production in 2025 was 695,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, at the lower end of its production guidance range. Anglo American simultaneously adjusted its medium- and long-term copper production guidance, lowering its 2026 copper production target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 700,000 - 760,000 tons, slightly adjusting the 2027 target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 750,000 - 810,000 tons, and setting the 2028 target at 790,000 - 850,000 tons [20] - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and Capstone Copper will resume full production. According to foreign media on February 5, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Friday that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile had approved a new three-year labor contract, and the one-month-long strike officially ended. The company has reached an agreement with all four unions at the mine, and the mine will gradually resume full production from the current capacity of about 55%. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of copper cathode, accounting for about 0.4% of global production. Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde mine, and Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corporation holds the remaining 30% [20] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - The decline in copper prices led to an increase in downstream purchases, and the contango widened under the suppression of high copper prices. The spot discount continued to converge slightly. As the Spring Festival approached and downstream enterprises stockpiled, the spot supply was tight, and Shanghai copper changed from a discount to a premium. - The LME copper 0 - 3 remained at a discount, the New York - London copper price difference turned negative, and the arbitrage window for transporting copper from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to the LME opened. The LME deliverable copper inventory has reached an 11-month high [24] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of February 6, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 175,306 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 21.36%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 318,363 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 20.75%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. - As of January 30, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 1,782.99 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 78.17%. As of February 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 55,923 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 3.61% [26] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [36] 4.2 Downstream Production Rates - In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. - As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [40] 4.3 Inventory - As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].