螺纹：价格先弱后强 等待做多机会 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-09 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 十月观点：价格先弱后强 等待做多机会 逻辑：从各项投资数据来看，预计十月钢材需求也很难有明显好转，可能需要钢厂减产，库存才能顺畅去化，一旦铁水产量下滑， 原料供需会转向宽松。支撑因素在于，一是钢材静态估值处于偏低水平，螺纹钢期货已经低于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，二是宏观 预期仍然向好，10月即将召开二十届四中全会，涉及"十五五"规划，此外，本轮反内卷持续时间长，反内卷预期会被反复交易。 策略： 低估值下，成材下跌空间比较有限，原料在黑色系中估值偏高，下行压力相对较大，关注9月初的低点附近支撑。预计10 月价格先弱后强，螺纹RB2601重点关注3000附近做多机会，信号上需要看到钢材库存持续去化或者宏观利好出现。 | 螺纹月度涨跌 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 | | --- | - ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 逢低买入 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

2025 年十一假期期货市场品种解读 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | | 研究员： | 赵丹琪（执业编号：F3039881 | 投资咨询资格编号：Z0014940） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮件：zhaodq1@cjfco.com.cn | 公司地址：http://www.cjfco.com.cn | 微信公众号：ChangjiangFutures | | | 板块 | 品种 | 9 月 30 日下午 3:00 价格 | 10 月 7 日下午 3:00 价格 | 涨跌幅 | | | 纳斯达克 | 22,660.01 | 22,941.67 | 1.24% | | | 标准普尔 | 6,688.46 | 6,740.28 | 0.77% | | 宏观 | 道琼斯工业 | 46,397.89 | 46,694.97 | 0.64% | | | 恒生指数 | 26,855.56 | 26957.77 | 0.38% | | | 美元指数 | 97.80 | 98.1175 | 0.33% | | 贵金属 | COMEX 白银 | 46.97 | 48.33 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - **Rebar**: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - **Soda Ash**: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - **Jujubes**: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - **Oils**: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Maintain an optimistic view on A-shares in the long term, as market trading sentiment remains active, RMB appreciation drives loose internal and external liquidity, and there is support from credit impulse resilience and consumption policy expectations. However, in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of fluctuations caused by the passivation of positive factors due to four marginal changes, including structural overheating in market sentiment, potential capital flow disturbances after the Fed's preventive rate cut, weak fundamental data in most months, and the approaching National Day holiday [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Stock market fluctuations intensify the volatility of interest rate bonds. The follow - up trend of domestic interest rate bonds mainly depends on the central bank's rate - cut plan, and policy trends will dominate market sentiment repair and yield positioning. The Fed's rate cut has limited impact on domestic interest rate bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Last week, the market continued to fluctuate with significant style differentiation. The large - cap growth sector performed strongly, while the value sector was under pressure. Major indices showed mixed performance, with growth - style broad - based indices leading the gains [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main A - share indices showed a differentiated and volatile pattern last week. The Shanghai Composite Index was constrained by the 3100 - point pressure, while the ChiNext Index was strong, breaking through the 20 - week moving average, and the STAR 50 index was approaching its annual high but in the overbought area [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Remain rational and make cautious decisions [7]. **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields first rose and then fell last week. The bond market was under pressure during the week and rebounded slightly at the end of the week. The treasury bond curve showed a slight bear - steepening, and the overall rebound momentum was limited [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treasury bond futures first fell and then rebounded. T2412 continued to decline since September 16th. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest mostly increased. The CTD net basis was differentiated, and the IRR was generally low [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. **Key Data Tracking** - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Supply and demand on both sides weakened, and the upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In September, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still sluggish [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service industry production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value was mainly due to the export chain [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In September, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons for the negative growth were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.7%. The weakening was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering consumption, weakening sales of state - subsidized categories, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In September, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 100 billion yuan. The growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and there are still windows for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September, exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The performance of imports and exports was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of US tariffs [30]. **Key Points to Watch This Week** - Multiple economic indicators in the US, such as ADP employment, non - farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, refinery utilization rate, and initial jobless claims, need to be monitored [32].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/9/29 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比增加344吨至21469吨，8月产量环比增加7.8%至92380吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产 3个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间 极为有限，主流澳矿基本均已下调25财年资本开支。海外进口方面，2025年8月国内进口锂精矿为61.9万吨，环比减少17.5%，其中 进口量前三的国家分别为澳大利亚、津巴布韦、尼日利亚。8月澳大利亚进口锂精矿环比减少50.5%，来自津巴布韦进口11.8万吨，环 比上涨83.9%，来自尼日利亚进口10.5万吨，环比下跌9.5%，马里进口锂精矿增加7.3万吨。8月碳酸锂进口21847吨，环比增长 57.8%，来自智利进口15608吨，占比71%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has increased due to the in - line US August PCE data, and precious metal prices are in a strong - side consolidation. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, suggesting support for precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payroll data released on Friday [6][9][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The price of US gold continued its strong - side consolidation. As of last Friday, it closed at $3,790 per ounce, up 1.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,850, and the lower support level is $3,700 [6] - The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly gain of 6.9%, closing at $46.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $45, and the upper resistance level is $48.5 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - Due to factors such as the in - line US August PCE data, the downward revision of the total non - farm employment in March, the indication of two more rate cuts in the dot - plot of the FOMC meeting, market expectations of monetary policy easing have increased. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payroll data released on Friday [11] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - No specific text summary information provided, only charts are shown 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The annual rate of the US August PCE price index was 2.7%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 2.6% [26] - The final quarterly annualized rate of the US second - quarter real GDP was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3% [26] - The preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, in line with expectations and slightly lower than the previous value of 53 [26] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The overall US August PCE data increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with market expectations and slightly higher than the previous value. The market is still betting that the Fed will cut rates in October, with an 86% probability [27] - The annualized growth rate of the US second - quarter GDP reached 3.8%, the fastest in nearly two years. The expected growth rate of the third - quarter GDP is generally around 2.5%. US consumer spending in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations [27] 3.6 Inventory - For gold, the COMEX inventory increased by 15,019.10 kg to 1,242,473.18 kg this week, and the SHFE inventory increased by 8,397 kg to 65,826 kg [13] - For silver, the COMEX inventory increased by 195,990.93 kg to 16,495,571.19 kg this week, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,177 kg to 1,158,266 kg [13] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC speculative funds in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13][35] - As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC speculative funds in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][35] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (October 1), at 22:00, the US September ISM manufacturing PMI will be released [37] - On Friday (October 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US September non - farm payrolls and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]

| | | 本周铜价大幅冲高突破，后高位回落。全球第二大铜矿Grasberg遭遇矿难停产，自由港公司预计最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 平，2026年的产量可能比事件前预估低约35%（约27万吨）。印尼Grasberg矿山不可抗力情况短期让铜矿紧张预期进一步加深，铜价受事件 | | | | | 性冲击向上突破大幅上涨，铜价长期中枢将继续抬升。国内市场：在高铜价影响下，市场消费有所减弱，部分下游点价拿货情绪逐步趋于 | | | | | 谨慎，节前备货情况不及预期。临近月底以及国庆节假，部分持货商节前回款，低价出货情绪显现，现货贴水幅度因此扩大。目前国内冶 | | | 铜 | 高位震荡 | 炼厂处于高检修期，市场到货一般，库存小幅下降，不过仍有进口铜到货，供应端压力并未有明显体现。中国8月经济数据环比有走弱的趋 | 节前 | | | 80500-82500 | 势，四季度消费端面临着较大的压力，四季度国内恐将出台经济托底政策。美联储降息节奏仍具有不确定性，市场对于未来降息利多利空 | 谨慎交易 | | | | 的预期有所分化，宏观因 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Resurgence of Disturbances at the Mine End, Copper Prices Prone to Rise and Hard to Fall [1] Report Date - September 29, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. Although the impact of the accident has been digested in the short term and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, the impact on copper supply, demand, and price is likely to be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [5][31] - **Demand Side**: Pre - holiday stocking has slightly increased the operating rate. As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. This week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders [5][35] - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease. As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia will take until 2027 to resume pre - accident production levels, and the 2026 output may be about 35% (about 270,000 tons) lower than previously estimated. The accident has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. In the domestic market, affected by high copper prices, market consumption has weakened, and some downstream buyers' sentiment of pricing and taking goods has become more cautious. The pre - holiday stocking situation was lower than expected. As the end of the month and the National Day holiday approached, some holders showed a willingness to sell at low prices to recover funds before the holiday, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount. Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, the market arrivals are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly, but there are still imports of copper, and the supply - side pressure is not obvious. China's economic data in August showed a weakening trend month - on - month, and the consumption side in Q4 faces greater pressure. It is expected that China may introduce economic support policies in Q4. Overall, the impact of the Grasberg shutdown in Indonesia has been digested in the short term, and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but the impact on copper supply, demand, and price may be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: In September, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into the contraction range, while the services and composite PMI expanded. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, but inflation pressure was more stubborn. The US August core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The El Teniente copper mine in Chile is recovering slowly after the accident, and the annual copper production will be lower than expected. China's August scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. After the accident at the Grasberg copper mine, Freeport's metal production will face significant losses. The ICSG reported a global copper market surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons [17] 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The high copper price has weakened downstream stocking sentiment. Near the holiday, the downstream stocking pace was slow, and spot transactions remained around flat water. After the sharp rise in copper price, Shanghai copper spot transactions were weak, with transactions around a small discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper spread increased slightly, and the refined - scrap copper spread widened [20] - **Domestic and Foreign Positions**: As of September 26, the Shanghai copper futures position was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 32.38%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper this week was 137,568.8 lots, a week - on - week increase of 87.48%. Both the position and trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of September 19, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 12,188.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 36.00%. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.07% [24] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the copper concentrate spot rough smelting fee was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [31] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. Last week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders. In August, the operating rates of copper plates, strips, tubes, and foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The increase in copper price has reduced the purchasing willingness of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the growth of downstream orders was lower than expected. The operating rate of copper tubes decreased due to US tariffs, while the operating rate of copper foils increased due to strong downstream demand for lithium - ion copper foils [35] - **Import and Export**: As of September 26, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.03, and the ratio remained stable this week. The negative value of copper spot import profit and loss widened slightly. In August, China's refined copper import volume was 263,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The scrap copper import volume in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The imports of refined copper and scrap copper increased steadily. In August, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% [39] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyolefins, view the market rationally before the holiday, expecting range - bound fluctuations. The LL main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, and the PP main contract within 6900 - 7200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - For plastics, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and there is strong bottom support [9]. - For PP, there is significant upward pressure on the trend, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%. The average price of LDPE was 9556.67 yuan/ton (- 0.38% week - on - week), HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton (- 0.57% week - on - week), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7551.76 yuan/ton (- 0.33% week - on - week). The LLDPE South China basis was 392.76 yuan/ton (- 3.61% week - on - week), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+ 2), the 5 - 9 month - spread was - 28 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [16]. - **Spot price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics showed various price changes on September 28. For example, in Northeast China, the film price was 7780 yuan/ton (0% change) [18]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [21]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton (- 54 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton (- 347 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 81.84% (+ 1.48 percentage points week - on - week), with a weekly output of 64.26 tons (+ 1.84% week - on - week). The maintenance loss this week was 11.37 tons (- 1.15 tons week - on - week) [30]. - **2025 Commissioning Plan**: Many enterprises have completed or are scheduled to commission new PE production capacity in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines [35]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 32.86% (+ 6.11% week - on - week), PE packaging film was 52.37% (+ 0.59% week - on - week), and PE pipe was 32.17% (+ 0.34% week - on - week) [8][37]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 37.1%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average [40]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 53.48 tons (- 1.18 tons week - on - week, - 2.16% week - on - week) [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12736 lots (+ 0 lots week - on - week) [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6893 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from last week [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products in different regions showed various price changes on September 28. For example, the standard drawing material price was 6795 yuan/ton (- 2 day - on - day) [51]. - **Basis**: On September 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6973.33 yuan/ton (- 0.66% week - on - week). The PP basis was 80 yuan/ton (- 26), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [8][55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+ 1), the 5 - 9 month - spread was 28 yuan/ton (- 2), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton (- 58.03 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton week - on - week) [69]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52% (+ 0.62 percentage points week - on - week). The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.34 tons (+ 0.83% week - on - week), and that of PP powder was 6.48 tons (+ 5.61% week - on - week) [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line and Luoyang Petrochemical's first - line [76]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [8][78]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 546.82 US dollars/ton (- 66.76 US dollars/ton week - on - week), and the export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton (- 3.54 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [83]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 52.03 tons (- 5.50% week - on - week); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% week - on - week, traders' inventory decreased by 0.58% week - on - week, and port inventory increased by 7.61% week - on - week [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 26, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14118 lots (+ 619 lots week - on - week) [95].