Trade Recommendations for Different Futures Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive waiting and observing. The slow - bull trend remains but may correct recently due to factors like market sentiment cooling and high - level technical indicators [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit, with a trend of weakening in oscillation. The bond market may adjust in oscillation, and the approach depends on investors' positions, durations, and tolerances [6][7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily wait and observe or engage in short - term trading. The market may oscillate as the cost has adjusted, and supply - demand is balanced, with upcoming macro and industrial policies to be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Consider it as the long - leg when shorting other black varieties. Although there are issues of potential supply surplus, support from other factors keeps it oscillating at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillate. The coking coal market has a tight short - term supply - demand pattern, and coke may see price increases, but key factors like production recovery and cost trends need attention [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Trade within a range or wait and observe. The price may oscillate due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand changes, and economic recovery expectations [12]. - **Aluminum**: Mainly wait and observe. There are risks in the short - term, with factors like changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand affecting the market, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings [14]. - **Nickel**: Consider shorting at high levels. The overall supply in the nickel industry is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Tin**: Trade within a range. Supply improvement is limited, and with low overseas inventory, the price is expected to be supported [21]. - **Gold and Silver**: Trade within a range cautiously. Market sentiment and tariff policies affect their prices, and they are expected to have support at the bottom [21][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate, with attention to the 5150 support level. Supply is high, and export sustainability is in question, but policy expectations have an impact [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on 2500 - 2700. Supply is abundant, and demand has rigid support but a slow - down in growth [26]. - **Styrene**: Oscillate, temporarily focusing on 7300 - 7700. Fundamental positives are limited, and the market is affected by macro factors [28]. - **Rubber**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 pressure level. There is a short - term callback risk, but raw material and inventory factors support it [30]. - **Urea**: First weaken then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is expected to increase, with a neutral supply - demand pattern [31]. - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply in some areas is tight, and demand is mixed, with a stable supply - demand situation [32]. - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate weakly. The L2509 contract focuses on 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract focuses on 6900 - 7200. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in the off - season, but inventory provides some support [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Exit and wait and observe. Supply is high, and demand is under pressure, but short - term macro factors drive the market [35]. Cotton Spinning Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Global supply and demand are adjusted, and the domestic market has a tight supply, supporting the price [36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate [37]. - **Jujubes**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. New - season production and sales area conditions affect the price, which is expected to remain stable and strong [38][39]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Hogs**: Oscillate weakly. The short - term supply is strong, and demand is weak. Consider shorting the 09 and 11 contracts and going long on the 01 contract [40][41]. - **Eggs**: Short at high levels. Short - term price increases are limited, and supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [41]. - **Corn**: Oscillate within a range (2250 - 2350). Consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Short - term supply - demand is in a game, and mid - long - term supply is tightening [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, go long on the M2509 contract at low levels; in the mid - long - term, pay attention to weather conditions and go long on relevant contracts at low levels [43][44]. - **Oils**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, trade within the range for 09 contracts and buy on dips [45][50]. Global Major Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 0.33%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 0.22%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 0.53%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 0.10%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5,903.58, up 0.25% [2]. - The Nikkei Index closed at 41,456.23, down 0.88%; the Dow Jones Index closed at 44,901.92, up 0.47%; the S&P 500 Index closed at 6,388.64, up 0.40%; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,108.32, up 0.24% [2]. - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.6674, up 0.18%; the RMB exchange rate was 7.1679, up 0.18% [2]. - New York Gold closed at 3,338.50, down 0.97%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 65.16, down 1.32% [2]. - LME Copper closed at 9,796.00, down 0.59%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,631.00, down 0.57%; LME Zinc closed at 2,829.00, down 0.40%; LME Lead closed at 2,020.50, down 0.12%; LME Nickel closed at 15,265.00, down 1.33% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

铜周报：国内政策推动铜价，关注铜关税落地 2025-7-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜矿供应持续偏紧，铜精矿加工费持续位于历史低位。截至7月25日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-42.75美元/吨，铜精矿现货加 工费自5月初跌至-43美元后维持至今，供给端矿冶矛盾持续演绎。 需求端：上周（7月18日-7月24日）国内精铜杆企业开工率下降到69.37%，环比下降4.85个百分点，同比下降8.85个百分点。铜价 上涨后，下游消费在上周短暂回暖后又再度呈现疲弱，企业新增订单和提货量都有所减少，精铜杆企业的开工率出现下降。 库存：截至7月25日，上海期货交易所铜库存7.34万吨，周环比-13.17%，持续下探至历年低位。截止7月24日，国内铜社会库存 11.42万吨，周去库2.91万吨，环比-20.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in urea plant maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, with daily production running at 19 - 20 million tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is sporadic, while compound fertilizer production has been continuously increasing, and it is expected that the demand for raw material replenishment will gradually increase. Other industrial demands remain stable. The inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed down, while the accumulation rate of port inventory has accelerated. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties on Friday night, it is expected that urea prices will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with support at 1700 - 1730 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price first strengthened and then weakened. On July 25, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,803 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 3.32%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,806 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.56% [2][4] - The basis of the urea main contract first strengthened and then weakened, with a weekly basis operating range of 0 - 55 yuan/ton. On July 25, the main contract basis in the Henan market was 3 yuan/ton, 48 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [2][7] - The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened and turned negative. On July 25, the 9 - 1 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 4 - 32 yuan/ton [2][7] Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 83.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.86%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 193,500 tons. The supply remains at a high level [2][10] Cost - The price of anthracite coal has shown a slight adjustment in a stable range. Downstream coal - using enterprises' raw material coal procurement is still mainly for rigid demand, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is generally low. The anthracite lump coal market was tepid, with stable prices, while the slack coal and clean coal markets continued to be strong, and coal prices still had an upward trend [13] Demand - The national summer harvest and sowing are basically completed. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.58%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, rising slightly for three consecutive weeks. Compound fertilizer enterprises are gradually entering the stage of fertilizer preparation and shipment, and they purchase raw material urea on dips. The production of fertilizer enterprises is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer may continue to rise next week. The demand from other industries such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remains stable [2][15] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking rate has slowed down. Urea port inventory was 565,000 tons, an increase of 122,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory accumulation rate has accelerated. There were 2,523 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 50,460 tons [2][26] Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, urea plant production cuts and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; Treasury bonds are rated for profit - taking [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is rated for shock; Iron ore is rated for an upward - trending shock; Coking coal and coke are rated for cautious trial - buying [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is rated for range trading or waiting; Aluminum is rated for waiting; Nickel is rated for shorting on rallies; Tin is rated for range trading; Gold and silver are rated for range trading [12][14][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is rated for an upward - trending shock; Caustic soda is rated for shock; Styrene is rated for shock; Rubber is rated for an upward - trending shock; Urea and methanol are rated neutral; Polyolefins are rated for a downward - trending shock; Soda ash is rated for waiting and exiting [22][24][26][27][30][31][33][34] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated for an upward - trending shock; Apples and jujubes are rated for shock [36][37] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are rated for shorting on rallies; Corn is rated for range trading; Soybean meal and oils are rated for an upward - trending shock [39][41][42][44][45][46] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market situation of each product from aspects such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis results [1][6][8] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to factors such as the Fed's "renovation gate", the European Central Bank's interest - rate policy, China's policy adjustments, and market sentiment changes [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak shock. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to enter the market for allocation due to the influence of investors' behavior and the performance of large - category assets [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is in a shock state. The raw materials drive the steel price up, but the supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting futures while going long on the spot [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price is in an upward - trending shock. The policy expectation at the end of the month is enhanced, the demand is relatively strong, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, and the short - term price support is strong. The coke market has obvious supply - demand game characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the progress of coal - mine resumption, the continuity of coke price increases, and steel - mill profits [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level shock. Factors such as the US tariff policy, domestic supply - side reform, and seasonal demand changes affect the price. It is recommended for range trading or waiting [12] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory accumulation [14] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply in the nickel industry is excessive, and the price is expected to be in a shock state. It is recommended to short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of precious metals are in a shock state. The US economic data and tariff policy expectations affect the price. It is recommended for range trading [20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but the policy expectation is dominant, and the price is in an upward - trending shock. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 5150 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is in a shock state, and the 09 contract temporarily pays attention to 2500 - 2700 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is warm. The price is in a shock state, and it temporarily pays attention to 7300 - 7700 [26][27] - **Rubber**: The raw materials are firm, and the inventory shows a small - scale de - stocking trend, but the market sentiment is weakening. The price is in an upward - trending shock, and it pays attention to the pressure at 15000 [27][29] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the de - stocking trend continues. The price is expected to be in a shock state, with a reference range of 1680 - 1850 [30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the demand of the methanol - to - olefins industry increases slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a shock state [32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a small - scale de - stocking. The price is expected to return to the fundamentals, with a short - term rebound but limited strength [32][33] - **Soda Ash**: Affected by the news of the work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, the futures price rises sharply. It is recommended to wait and exit the market [34][35] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation changes, the downstream consumption is light, but the spot market is tight. The price is expected to be in an upward - trending shock [36] - **Apples**: The trading in the production area is on - demand, the supply in the early - maturing fruit market is limited, and the price is expected to be in a shock state [37] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujube growth is in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, the arrival volume in the sales area is small, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure exists, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 01 contract [39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is weakened, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for buying opportunities at low prices for the 12 and 01 contracts [41][42] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and the price is in a range shock. It is recommended to be cautious in going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread opportunity [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is in a shock state. The medium - and long - term supply gap exists, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [45][46] - **Oils**: The prices of various oils are in an upward - trending shock. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the corresponding intervals [46][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Equity Index**: The "Renovation Gate" of the Fed has escalated, with Trump pressuring for a rate cut. The ECB has stopped rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, and the expectation of a September rate cut has dropped sharply. China is strongly "anti - involution" with the revision of the Price Law. After the coal mine production verification dampened market sentiment, the "Hainan blockade" and "anti - involution" have boosted market risk appetite again, and the slow - bull trend of the equity index is becoming clear with its central level rising [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the bond market adjusted significantly. Currently, the focus of short - term bond market trading is not on the capital and fundamental aspects. The influence of investor behavior and the performance of major asset classes on the bond market has been significantly magnified. Compared with the commodity and equity markets, the previous adjustment space of the bond market is still insufficient, and the odds are limited, making incremental funds cautious and existing funds uneasy. In this situation, the bond market is still difficult to make great progress. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to allocate [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 equity index futures rose by 0.76%, 0.50%, 1.72%, and 1.84% respectively [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell by 0.27%, 0.20%, 0.87%, and 0.08% respectively [2][6]. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **Equity Index**: The equity index is expected to fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Pay attention to taking profits and wait for better entry opportunities [2][3]. Futures Data - **Equity Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts were 4,141.20 yuan, 2,816.60 yuan, 6,226.00 yuan, and 6,618.60 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 65,298 lots, 34,309 lots, 49,292 lots, and 124,051 lots, and open interests of 163,125 lots, 63,790 lots, 109,680 lots, and 181,457 lots respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were 108.24 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 118.31 yuan, and 102.30 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 88,420 lots, 88,209 lots, 149,278 lots, and 54,515 lots, and open interests of 196,150 lots, 160,008 lots, 122,909 lots, and 106,097 lots respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a financial futures daily report released on July 24, 2025, by the Research and Consulting Department of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd [1][5] Group 2: Stock Index Core View - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. Media reports of a 15% tariff on the EU by the US were refuted by the White House. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump claimed a US - Japan agreement with Japan accepting a 15% tax rate and opening auto and rice markets. The US Treasury Secretary is not in a hurry to decide Powell's successor. After the market sentiment cooled from coal mine production checks, trade news boosted market risk appetite, and the slow - bull trend of the stock index became clearer with its center rising [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to fluctuate upward [2] Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.31%, 0.49%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [6] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a callback risk [6] Group 3: Treasury Bonds Core View - On Tuesday, the bond market started to adjust. The odds space for long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened. In the past month, due to factors like fund diversion and increased risk appetite, the yield bottom has gradually risen, and with the microstructure not yet repaired, the bond market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The sustainability of equities and commodities needs further observation [3] Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to taking profits [4] Market Review - The main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell by 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.22%, and 0.04% respectively [7] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Group 4: Futures Data - On July 23, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 stock index futures, and 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year treasury bond futures [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pressure of live pigs remains, showing a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. For eggs, the short - term price has a rising drive but the supply pressure is large, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease. Oils are expected to be in a relatively strong trend after a correction. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it may strengthen in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply - demand of corn is in a game, and the price may rise in the medium - to - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9] Summary by Variety Live Pigs - On July 24, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all declined. In the short term, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price adjusts slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will gradually increase. Under the expectation of capacity reduction, it shows weak reality and strong expectation. The 09 contract has pressure at 14700 - 15000, the 11 contract at 14400 - 14600, and the 01 contract has support. Consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and going long on 01 [1] Eggs - On July 24, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate, and demand is expected to turn seasonally strong, but supply factors limit the increase. In the medium term, the supply in August - October 2025 may increase. In the long term, the subsequent new production may decrease. The 09 contract waits for spot guidance, and consider shorting on rallies. The 12 and 01 contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [2] Oils Palm Oil - On July 23, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. The MPOB June report was neutral - bearish, but the market focused on the increased import demand. In July, the export decline and production increase were bearish, but the GAPKI May report and other factors were bullish. The short - term trend is relatively strong, and the 10 contract focuses on the 4300 - 4400 pressure level. In China, the supply in August is relatively loose [4][5] Soybean Oil - As of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans is good. The US soybean futures are in a short - term range - bound. The short - term inventory accumulation in China is expected to be strong, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The soybean oil is moderately strong [6] Rapeseed Oil - The growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there are potential weather threats. The international demand may be affected. In China, the supply is tightening, but the potential import of Australian rapeseed may improve the supply. It is relatively weak [7] Soybean Meal - On July 23, the US soybean futures declined. The short - term US soybean is range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal is strong in the short term but the upside of the spot is limited. In the medium - to - long term, there may be a supply gap. Short - term, consider going long on the M2509 contract on dips; medium - to - long term, pay attention to the M2511 and M2601 contracts [8] Corn - On July 23, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is range - bound. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand tightens, and the price may rise but the upside is limited. Short - term, be cautious about going long on the 09 contract; consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [8][9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10]