Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended for selling on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be held long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations; aluminum requires more observation; nickel suggests waiting or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate will trade in a range [1][11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC adopts a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile [1][17][19]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; apples are expected to be slightly strong; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26][28]. - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts should sell on rallies and long - term contracts are cautiously bullish; for eggs, the 02 contract can be hedged on rallies; for corn, short - term chasing highs should be cautious, and long - term there is support at the bottom; for soybean meal, near - term contracts are bullish and far - term contracts are bearish; for oils, soybean and palm oil are stronger than rapeseed oil, and palm oil can be bought [1][29][38]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international market trends. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1][5][8]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The US economic data has mixed impacts, and China's foreign trade is improving, but the increase in margin ratio may put pressure on the stock index. It is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Government Bonds**: Asset fluctuations are large, and there are short - term trading opportunities. The mid - term situation is unclear. The market should focus on the central bank's press conference on monetary policy, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The transportation and procurement are weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8]. - **Rebar**: The price is in the middle range. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak, and there are expectations of weakening exports. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory transfers. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a game between macro - bullishness and weak fundamentals. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but there is a long - term shortage expectation. It is recommended to hold long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina is in a weak situation, and the policy is uncertain. The aluminum price is under fundamental pressure, and it is recommended to observe more [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is cut, but the overall supply is still in excess. It is recommended to wait or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is suitable for range trading [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts, the prices are expected to be strong. Silver is recommended to hold long, and gold is for range trading [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are potential policy and cost - side impacts. It is recommended to buy at low levels [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure. There is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19]. - **Rubber**: The upstream cost is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and it is for range trading [20][21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to trade in a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to trade in a range, with some regions being strong [23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [26]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving. The price is in a high - level adjustment, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26]. - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly strong [28]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand may turn loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The long - term supply pressure still exists, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [31][33]. - **Corn**: The short - term price has selling pressure, and the long - term demand is gradually releasing. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs and hedge on rallies [34][36]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contract is bullish, and the far - term contract is bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the near - term and sell on rallies in the far - term [37][38]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to buy palm oil and pay attention to the China - Canada negotiation results [38][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1] - Rebar: Range - bound trading [1] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [1] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Range - bound trading [1] - Gold: Range - bound trading [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1] - Styrene: Range - bound trading [1] - Rubber: Range - bound trading [1] - Urea: Range - bound trading [1] - Methanol: Range - bound trading [1] - Polyolefins: Weak and oscillating [1] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Oscillating adjustment [1] - Apples: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Jujubes: Bounce back from the bottom [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [1] - Eggs: For the 02 contract, breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies [1] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies [1] - Soybean meal: Treat the near - term contracts bullishly on dips and the far - term contracts bearishly [1] - Oils: Soybean and palm oils are stronger than rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agricultural and livestock. It analyzes the market conditions of each sector based on factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international situation, aiming to help investors make informed decisions. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index futures**: In the medium to long term, considering the expansion of December PMI and the strong expectation of early - stage policy implementation at the beginning of the year, the market is expected to develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks may lead to range - bound trading, which helps digest overbought pressure [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: In the short term, the decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to move in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory in ports is accumulating, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a range - bound state. The static valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price rebounded last week, it is mainly due to short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction. The fundamental pattern has not changed, and it is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has experienced a "roller - coaster" ride. In the short term, the upward momentum has weakened, but in the long term, there is still a shortage expectation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the operating range may move down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina will continue, and policy expectations are uncertain. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12]. - **Nickel**: The production of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decrease, but the refining nickel is in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [14]. - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the slowdown of the US economy and the increase in industrial demand, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and be cautious about chasing highs [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, and exports may increase. Although the current supply - demand situation is still weak, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to policies and cost fluctuations [18]. - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the improvement of the market atmosphere of related commodities. It is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but the inventory in Qingdao Port is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a range [21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and the export policy [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is high, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the price in some areas is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate in a range [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to be weak and oscillating [25]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving. Although the price has adjusted recently, it is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27]. - **Apples**: The market price of apples in storage is stable, and the trading volume is not large. The overall market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market is expected to bounce back from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply and demand may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the long term, the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but it should be viewed cautiously. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to rise seasonally, but the supply is relatively sufficient, which may limit the increase. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is not strongly driven, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is looser than the previous year, which may limit the increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for grain - holding entities [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The short - term M2603 contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37]. - **Oils**: The performance of soybean and palm oils is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil and conduct rolling position building. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada negotiation from January 14 - 17 [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass recommended to sell on rallies [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; Aluminum advised to strengthen observation; Nickel advised to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver is expected to be strong; Lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC with a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see temporarily; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1][19] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Apples are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs: Near - term contracts to sell on rallies and roll short, far - term contracts to be bullish cautiously; Eggs: Current 02 contract for farmers to wait and sell on rallies for hedging; Corn: Short - term to be cautious of chasing high, grain - holding entities to sell on rallies for hedging; Soybean meal: Near - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, far - term contracts to be treated weakly; Oils: Soybean and palm oil rallies are limited, be cautious of chasing up, rapeseed oil is weak [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading guidance for various futures products in different industries, analyzing the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors of each product, and giving corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the US December non - farm payrolls were disappointing, the unemployment rate dropped, reducing January rate - cut bets. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Geopolitical and precious - metal risks increased. Considering the December PMI returning to expansion and strong expectations of early - year policy support, the market may develop further, but the index may trade sideways. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - long term and buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline momentum of the bond market has attenuated in the short term, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium term. Whether the bond - market pressure has been fully released remains to be seen. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] 2. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory at ports has accumulated, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended for short - term trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost and slightly lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. The supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Glass**: The short - term price rise is due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, but the fundamental pattern has not changed. It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9] 3. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" stage. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation and supporting factors still exist. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [11] - **Aluminum**: The weak reality of alumina surplus will continue, and the policy expectation is uncertain. The aluminum price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, and it faces great pressure in January. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is expected to be cut, but the overall nickel market remains in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and it is recommended for range trading [15] - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the disappointing US non - farm payrolls and interest - rate cut expectations, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious of opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the price is expected to move up in the medium term. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious of chasing high [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strong but may decline slightly. It is expected to trade in a range [18] 4. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering valuation and policies, it is recommended to buy at low levels [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term has delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the market atmosphere of related commodities. However, the rebound space is limited without production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the overseas gap has been filled. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term and focus on the improvement of cost and supply - demand in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, but the inventory accumulation may slow down. The downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural and industrial demand has some support, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - **Methanol**: The supply in the inland area is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by geopolitical and port - arrival factors, the price is expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, the demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 5. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price has shown high - level fluctuations after a continuous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28] - **Apples**: The market of late - Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with different trading situations in different regions. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] 6. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand relationship may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the medium - long term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [30][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient, limiting the increase. In the medium - long term, the new - laying pressure is not large, but the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell on rallies for hedging [33][34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is under selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing high in the short term and sell on rallies for hedging [35][36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to be long on dips for the near - term contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [38][39] - **Oils**: The short - term rallies of soybean and palm oil are limited, and rapeseed oil is weak. In the medium - long term, soybean and palm oil may rebound, and rapeseed oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing up for soybean and palm oil and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [39][43][44]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Profit-Taking at Highs Leads to Copper Price Correction, with Sustained Fundamental Support [1] - Report Date: January 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment was high, pushing up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction [5]. - The shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine [5][9]. - Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks [5][9]. - With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches led to high market sentiment, pushing up copper prices. After reaching above 105,000 yuan, long positions took profits, causing the price to correct [5]. 1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The copper mine is in short supply due to disruptions. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was -$45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 11.38% [8][29]. - Demand: High copper prices are suppressing the industry, and the operating rate continues to be under pressure. As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [8][32]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventories continue to pile up. As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week-on-week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [8][37]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment among long positions is high, continuing to push up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction. Fundamentally, the shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine. Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China: In December, the RatingDog Services PMI was 52, indicating continued expansion. The RatingDog Composite PMI final value was 51.3. The central bank stated that it will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.34% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's CPI in December increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since February 2023, mainly driven by rising food prices. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month [13]. - United States: In December, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached the largest contraction since 2024, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and employment declining for the 11th consecutive month. The ISM Services PMI was 54.4, the highest in more than a year, with new orders increasing significantly and demand driving employment growth. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [13]. 2.2 Industrial News Overview - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of the year to $12,750 per ton but said prices may decline in the second half [14]. - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to a breakdown in negotiations, and the mine is almost completely shut down [14]. - The US government is considering investing in a key mineral mining project in Greenland operated by Amaroq [14]. - The Trump administration and Congress plan to revoke the mining ban in northern Minnesota imposed by the Biden administration, which will benefit the Twin Metals copper - cobalt - nickel mine project [14]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is expected to pass the EU's anti - monopoly review [14]. 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper prices reached a new high, and the spot market was冷清, with transactions falling into a discount. As spot transactions weakened, spot quotes continued to be lowered, and the market discount widened. Subsequently, as copper prices fell, downstream buyers replenished their stocks, and overall trading improved, narrowing the discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper price spread weakened [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 9, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 206,491 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 275,814.8 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21.43%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased [20]. - As of January 2, the net long position of investment companies and credit institutions in LME copper was 3,078.98 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 33.06%. As of January 6, the net long position of asset management institutions in COMEX copper was 68,242 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - The shortage of copper concentrates persists due to disruptions in the copper mine. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The actual impact of smelter maintenance in December was small, and the supply of scrap - derived anode copper increased, leading to a month - on - month increase in the production of some smelters. The strong sulfuric acid price in December offset smelting losses, and smelters had little intention to cut production voluntarily [29]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [32]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week - on - week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [37].

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Feed and Livestock Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Market**: Supply pressure remains high, and futures prices are under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate and adjust, with a risk of decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and prices after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger but still above the equilibrium level [4][56]. - **Egg Market**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price is expected to rise seasonally, but the sufficient supply will limit the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter may be alleviated, but the overall long - term supply pressure still exists [5][83]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the supply and demand are balanced, and the futures price will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderately weak, which will limit the upside space [6][103]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Viewpoints Summary Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the national spot price was 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11770 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1160 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [4][56]. - **Supply**: Since September, the inventory of reproductive sows has been slightly decreasing. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year and decrease marginally after August. In January, the planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises decreased month - on - month [4][56]. - **Demand**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak. The high frozen - meat inventory will suppress the supply in the future [4][56]. - **Cost**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows increased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was positive, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding narrowed. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly [4][56]. - **Strategy**: In the context of high supply pressure, short the off - season contracts on rallies. Be cautious about bullish on the far - month contracts. The industry can hedge at high levels above the profit [4][56]. Eggs - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the average price in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the futures price of contract 2603 was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 89 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 137 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 51 yuan/500 kg [5][83]. - **Supply**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January corresponds to the replenishment in August 2025, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the base is still large [5][83]. - **Demand**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand is expected to increase significantly. The low price of pork and the high price of vegetables increase the substitution demand for eggs [5][83]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the basis is low, and the valuation is high. Do not short on the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the post - festival 03 contract at high levels [5][83]. Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the corn flat - cargo price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday; the futures price of contract 2603 was 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 67 yuan/ton, weaker by 37 yuan/ton [6][103]. - **Supply**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The supply in the production areas slowed down, and the import policy grain auction had good results [6][103]. - **Demand**: The demand for feed is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to an increase in wheat substitution. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high inventories [6][103]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the high price of the futures in the short - term. Holders of grain can hedge at high levels on rallies. In the long - term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply is sufficient, which will limit the upside [6][103]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with narrow fluctuations. The futures price fluctuated more under the influence of spot and macro factors, and the basis strengthened [4][56]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is expected to decline slowly. The production performance is at a high level in the past four years. The number of new - born piglets has been increasing since February 2025, indicating high supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price rebounded from the low level, and the futures price of the main contract was strong, with a slight premium over the spot [61][83]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining. The weekly number of eliminated chickens decreased, and the price of chicken seedlings increased [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted within a narrow range. The futures price of the main contract was strong, with a discount to the spot [89][103]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The import of corn increased in November. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [6][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Stable Production and Sales, with Pressure on the Upside and Support on the Downside" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea检修装置有复产计划，日均产量提升，供应环比增加。各地区农业用备肥跟进，以储备采购为主，复合肥原料补库增加对尿素需求支撑，尿素企业库存水平同比偏低，近期产销偏稳，价格震荡运行，参考区间1730 - 1830元/吨 [2] Summary by Directory Market Changes - 受尿素产销偏稳和化工板块反弹影响，尿素盘面价格周初延续提涨，周尾窄幅回落。1月9日尿素2605合约收盘价1777元/吨，较上周上调28元/吨，涨幅1.6%，期间最高1794元/吨，最低1753元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1730元/吨，较上周上调40元/吨，涨幅2.37% [2][5] - 尿素主力基差走强，1月9日河南市场主力基差 - 47元/吨，周度基差运行区间（ - 64）— （ - 43）元/吨 [2][9] - 尿素09合约价格增幅较大，尿素5 - 9价差走弱，1月9日5 - 9价差23元/吨，周度运行区间20 — 38元/吨 [2][9] Fundamental Changes Supply - 中国尿素开工负荷率84.74%，较上周提升1.46个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率51.57%，较上周降低4.83个百分点，尿素日均产量19.59万吨。四川、甘肃等装置检修或减量，湖北、河南等装置复产，下周甘肃和四川均有检修装置计划恢复，预计日产量增加 [2][12] Cost - 无烟煤市场价格降后趋稳运行，截至1月8日，山西晋城S0.4 - 0.5无烟洗小块含税价840 - 900元/吨，较上周价格重心降15元/吨 [2][16] Demand - 主要尿素生产企业平均预收5.6天，尿素企业周度产销率98.4% [17][18] - 农业需求方面，目前以储备采购流向居多 [2][18] - 工业需求方面，复合肥企业产能运行率37.17%，较上周提升3.28个百分点。复合肥库存69.52万吨，较上周基本持平，冬储持续兑现预收，原料市场预期高位波动对市场情绪有一定提振作用，产销持续跟进。三聚氰胺开工提升、脲醛树脂等其他工业需求支撑减弱 [2][18][22] Inventory - 尿素企业库存86.9万吨，较上周减少1.4万吨，同比去年同期减少69万吨。尿素港口库存27.8万吨，较上周减少2万吨。尿素注册仓单12850张，合计25.7万吨，同比去年同期增加5375张，合计10.75万吨 [2][29] Key Points to Follow - 复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The glass market is affected by short - term factors such as mid - stream inventory transfer, coal speculation, and sporadic production line shutdowns, but the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The inventory problem will still be prominent before and after the Spring Festival. The glass price is expected to run weakly, and investors are advised to look for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, the glass futures rebounded strongly. The market focused on production line shutdowns around New Year's Day, a 1.8 - million - weight - box reduction in national inventory, and coal - related capital speculation. Supply decreased with two production lines cold - repaired, and the daily melting volume dropped below 150,000 tons. There was an arbitrage space for spot - futures traders. Demand saw an increase in speculative demand, and the floating glass factory inventory was transferred to the mid - stream. The coal speculation in the soda ash market was overbought, and manufacturers actively hedged. After the market sentiment fades, the price will run weakly. Technically, the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] - **Operation Strategy**: Short at high prices [3][4] 02 and 03 Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,020 yuan/ton (+20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (+10) in East China [11] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan for the week [11] - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, the soda ash - glass price difference was 84 yuan/ton (-38). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was - 84 yuan/ton (-17), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 94 yuan/ton (+10) [12][15] 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: Cost was 1,569 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 389 yuan/ton (+8) - **Coal - Gas Process**: Cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+9), and gross profit was - 150 yuan/ton (+11) - **Petroleum Coke Process**: Cost was 1,110 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 50 yuan/ton (-2) - **Fuel Price**: On January 9, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 185 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 595 yuan/ton [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 149,553.5 tons/day (-1,520). There were 214 production lines in operation, and two production lines were cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million). Inventory decreased in all regions, with significant drops in North China, South China, and Shahe [24][25] 07 Deep - processing - On January 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 145% (+25%). On January 9, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 73.8% (+29.7%). In mid - December, the order days of glass deep - processing decreased to 8.6 days (-1.1) [29] 08 and 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 173,000 and year - on - year increase of 95,000), and sales were 3.429 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 107,000 and year - on - year increase of 113,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] - **Real Estate**: In November, real estate completion area was 45.9293 million m² (year - on - year decrease of 25%), new construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%), construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%), and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 28 to January 4, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.74 million square meters (month - on - month decrease of 20% and year - on - year decrease of 9%). In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan (year - on - year decrease of 31%) [43] 10 Soda Ash Price - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged in North, East, and Central China, and was 1,425 yuan/ton in South China. The weekly changes in the ex - factory prices of some soda ash manufacturers were negative [44][46] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,228 yuan/ton (+19). The soda ash Central China 05 basis was 22 yuan/ton (-69) [48][49] 11 Cost - end Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (-5). The cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1,313 yuan/ton (+1), with a gross profit of - 58 yuan/ton (+38); the cost of the co - production process was 1,727 yuan/ton (-11), with a gross profit of - 40 yuan/ton (-5) [50][52] 12 Cost - end Soda Ash - Inventory Transfer - **Output**: Last week, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 56,500), including 404,500 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 33,500) and 349,100 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 23,000) - **Warehouse Receipts**: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,920 (+24) - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5727 million tons (month - on - month increase of 164,400), including 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 60,100) and 836,500 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 104,300) [64] 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 344,400 tons (week - on - week decrease of 53,500), and for light soda ash was 244,800 tons (week - on - week decrease of 84,600) - **Production - sales Rate**: Last week, the soda ash production - sales rate was 78.18% (month - on - month decrease of 26.15%) - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In November, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 24.1 days [67][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black building materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1][18] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1][20] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Bearish and range - bound [1][27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish and range - bound [1][29] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound [1][31] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom [1][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: Sell on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [1][33] - Eggs: Wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 contract [1][34] - Corn: Cautiously chase highs in the short term, hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [1][36] - Soybean meal: Bullish for near - term contracts, bearish for far - term contracts [1][39] - Oils: Limited rebound for soybean and palm oils, bearish for rapeseed oil [1][40] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, taking into account factors such as production, demand, inventory, and policy changes [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The US economic data and geopolitical risks may cause index futures to fluctuate. However, considering the PMI recovery in December and expectations of early policy support in the new year, the market is expected to develop further. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The decline in bond market decline momentum has appeared, and there may be short - term support. But in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish factors and weak marginal support. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests range trading on the right side [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded to above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period with weakening export expectations and a seasonal weakening of the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [7] - **Glass**: Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro - sentiment and funds, the price has reached a high level, but the current demand is weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the long - term price is expected to rise. In the short term, it may maintain a wide - range high - level shock [10] - **Aluminum**: The current supply is in a weak state, and the price is mainly driven by expectations and funds. With increasing production capacity and weakening demand, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to observe the policy changes [12] - **Nickel**: Although the price has rebounded due to factors such as quota cuts, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and pay attention to supply and demand changes [15] - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to rise in the medium term. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is expected to move in a range [18] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but the low valuation and potential policy support suggest a low - buying strategy. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, export, and cost factors [18] - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the commodity atmosphere. It is recommended to observe the changes in supply and demand [20] - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [28] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the short - term is recommended to be bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long term [22] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, and the price may continue to correct. It is recommended to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and other factors [24] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. It is recommended to trade in a range [25] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw material prices [27] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Affected by the global supply - demand adjustment and policy expectations, the price is expected to be bullish in a range [29] - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [32] Agricultural and livestock products - **Hogs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates due to the game between supply and demand. In the long term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of the year and may strengthen in the second half, but it is still cautious. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [33] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price has a selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [36] - **Soybean meal**: The short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to go long on dips for the M2603 contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [39] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of soybean and palm oils is limited, and the rapeseed oil is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs for soybean and palm oils and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [40]