Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: After the short - term trading overheating risk is gradually released, the market may still need to go through a process of shock consolidation. However, from a medium - term perspective, the upward trend remains intact, and the overall judgment of a structural bull market remains unchanged [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short term, risk appetite continues to disrupt the bond market. Three scenarios need to be vigilant: if the equity market breaks through with heavy volume, the bond market may be under pressure; if the stock market fluctuates and consolidates, the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals and capital situation; if the equity market corrects significantly, the yield curve may decline as a whole, but for the 10 - year treasury bond to effectively break through 2.5%, incremental positive catalysts are needed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Last week, major broad - based A - share indexes were generally under pressure, and market volatility increased significantly. Growth - style indexes had a large correction, and large - cap blue - chip and small - and medium - cap stocks also weakened [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The nature of the current market rebound remains to be confirmed. Although there was a significant rise on Friday, the overall trading volume did not effectively increase, which is a concern. To confirm a technical reversal, certain conditions need to be met [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Last week, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market became looser at the beginning of the month. The yield curve flattened slightly, and treasury bond futures were affected by the rise and fall of the equity market [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The upward trend of the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract T2409 was interrupted on Friday, with negative technical indicators showing weakening short - term momentum [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: If the support level is effectively broken, stop losses in a timely manner. In the short term, use a band - trading strategy [7]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, and different industries showed different trends [11]. - **Inflation**: In August, the year - on - year change in the consumer price index was flat, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4%. The year - on - year decrease in the producer price index was 3.6%, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but overall, they remained sluggish [14]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, mainly dragged down by the export chain [17]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [20]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%. The slowdown was mainly reflected in catering, sales of state - subsidized products, and real - estate - related consumption [23]. - **Social Financing**: In August, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. Although the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved, the credit increase was negative. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [26]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, imports and exports were significantly stronger than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs [29]. Weekly Focus - **China**: Foreign exchange reserves, import and export amounts, M0/M1/M2 balances, social financing scale, CPI, and PPI year - on - year data [31]. - **Japan**: Revised year - on - year GDP in the second quarter at constant prices [31]. - **EU**: Eurozone benchmark interest rates and deposit and lending rates [31].

7 0 0 3 3 4 7 1 f FEE E WOHAN START PART FOR THE FEE FOR FOR FEE FOR FOR FEE BE FOR FEE BE FOR FEE BE FOR FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FEE BE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE F 有色金属基础周报 2025-09-08 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 酬容员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 汇聚财智 共享成长 ring Wealth and Wisdom Achieving Mutual Growth Changjiang Securities | | | 本周铜价区间运行。美就业市场数据出现大幅下滑，7月贸易逆差扩大，市场对降息押注加大，美联储多位票委亦对9月降息表达乐观言论， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 但对美经济前景的担忧影响了 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-09-08 01 聚烯烃：金九银十提振需求，基本面出现分化 01 核心观点总结 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：9月5日，l主力合约收盘于7245元/吨，PP主力合约收盘于6961元/吨，LP价差为284元/吨（-2）。LDPE均价为 9616.67元/吨，环比-0.35%，HDPE均价为7962.50元/吨，环比-0.25%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7583.53元/吨，环 比-0.10%。LLDPE华南基差收于338.53元/吨，环比+11.29%，5-9月差50元/吨（+8）。基差走阔，月差走阔。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收7113.33元/吨（-1.30%），PP基差252元/吨（-63），基差走缩。5-9月差127元/吨（+14），月差扩大。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：聚乙烯生产开工率80.55%，较上周+1.86个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量63.25万吨，环 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-9-8 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 u 期现端：截至9月5日，鸡蛋主产区均价报3.11元/斤，较上周五涨0.01元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报3.06元/斤，较上周五涨0.09元/斤；鸡蛋主力2510收于2964元 /500千克，较上周五涨25元/500千克；主力合约基差-34元/500千克，较上周五走强195元/500千克。周度蛋价大幅上涨，受学校开学、中秋备货提振需求， 下游入市积极性增加，支撑蛋价脱离底部快速反弹，不过冷库蛋预计逢高出货，增加市场供应，随着蛋价涨至高位，备货需求落幕，预计未来一周蛋价先涨 后跌。盘面主力10合约，持仓量大，当前几乎平水现货，基差处于历史偏低水平。 u 供应端：9月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年5月补栏环同比均增加，开产量维持偏高，当前养殖端惜淘情绪有所缓解，淘汰鸡出栏增加，淘汰日龄加速下滑，预计9 月淘汰鸡出栏环比增加，重点关注养殖端是否存在超 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced that Canadian rapeseed constituted dumping in China. Since August 14, importers of Canadian rapeseed have to pay a deposit, which dampens traders' enthusiasm for imports and restricts the subsequent domestic rapeseed supply. As Canadian rapeseed accounts for about 90% of the total imported rapeseed, the preliminary anti - dumping review has a huge impact on the domestic rapeseed industry [1][21]. - The domestic supplementary import routes after the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked are analyzed. Firstly, the re - import of Australian rapeseed: the production of Australian rapeseed in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons is 6.396 million tons and 6.448 million tons respectively, with an annual export volume of about 5 million tons. For the 24/25 season, due to purchases by other importing countries and domestic consumption, the remaining old - crop Australian rapeseed is scarce, so the export potential to China is mainly reflected in the 25/26 season. The conservative estimate of the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China in the 25/26 season is about 1 - 2 million tons. Secondly, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil: the market estimates that the production of Russian rapeseed oil in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year to 5.15 - 5.3 million tons, and its export to the EU is still difficult. The annual export volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China is expected to increase to 1.5 million tons. The total annual export volume of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is estimated to be about 2 million tons [1][2][21][22]. - In terms of subsequent domestic supply, in 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. In the most ideal situation, even importing only rapeseed oil can make up for the consumption gap, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historical high. Although there is still a supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed after August, the amplitude of the gap may not be large [2][22]. - In terms of rhythm, before the large - scale import of new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil in November this year, the domestic rapeseed supply gap is the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the rapeseed supply - demand situation in 2026, it depends more on the actual export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [3][19][22][23]. - In the short term, due to the abundant harvest of Australian rapeseed, the news of Canadian politicians visiting China to discuss rapeseed anti - dumping, the domestic trial import of Australian rapeseed, and the decline of other oils, domestic rapeseed oil currently lacks the impetus for a sharp rise. However, the supply gap before the new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil enter the domestic market in November supports its bottom, and the overall trend is high - level oscillation. In the medium - to - long term, the supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed products still exists, but the amplitude is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend of rapeseed oil is cautiously bullish. The short - term support for the rapeseed oil 01 contract is 9,700 - 9,600, and the pressure is 10,000. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips, and also pay attention to the performance of the 11 - 01 positive spread [3][23]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. China - Australia relations improve, and Australia is expected to become a new major source of domestic rapeseed imports - Australia is the world's second - largest rapeseed exporter. China imported Australian rapeseed intermittently before 2021. According to the Australian Ministry of Agriculture, the estimated production of old - crop rapeseed in the 24/25 season is 6.396 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.79%). In the 25/26 season, although the sown area of new - crop rapeseed decreased, high yields were achieved due to no severe weather problems during the sowing period. The production is expected to increase slightly to 6.448 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.78%), much higher than the June estimate of 5.71 million tons, changing from a year - on - year decrease to a year - on - year increase [6]. - In terms of export capacity to China, before the new - crop rapeseed is harvested and enters the market in large quantities in November, the export capacity of Australian old - crop rapeseed to China is very limited. By the end of June 2025, only 726,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed remained. After deducting the subsequent domestic consumption, only 226,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed are available for export. Moreover, currently, French rapeseed is still at a high price globally, and exporting to the EU is more profitable. The fact that China's recent imports are all new - crop rapeseed after November rather than old - crop Australian rapeseed also verifies this [7]. - For new - crop rapeseed, in the 25/26 season, the production of Australian rapeseed is basically the same as that of the previous season, and the Australian Ministry of Agriculture estimates an export target of 5.2 million tons. Currently, China has allowed the trial import of Australian rapeseed. Market news indicates that there are already 5 ships with a cargo volume of 65,000 tons each for the November - January shipping period, with a total of 325,000 tons of Australian rapeseed to be imported in three months, and there are also 4 undetermined ships for the same period. In the most ideal situation, the export volume of Australian rapeseed to China may reach 4 - 5 million tons. However, in reality, China's annual import volume of Australian rapeseed is more likely to be around 1 - 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, new - crop Australian rapeseed usually starts to be imported in large quantities in November, and the pressure is more likely to be reflected in the 01 contract rather than the 11 contract [8]. II. Diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports intensifies, and rapeseed oil from Russia, the UAE, and Belarus is expected to increase imports to supplement the supply - Different from rapeseed, which is 90% dependent on Canadian imports, the diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports is higher. The import of Russian rapeseed oil accounts for nearly 60%. In addition, rapeseed oil from the UAE, Ukraine, and Belarus can also be imported. Since 2024, the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil has shrunk significantly, and after China imposed a 100% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed oil in March 2025, the import channel was completely blocked [10]. - In terms of Russian rapeseed oil, the market generally believes that the production of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year. The USDA's August estimate of production is 5.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 13.98%), and IKAR's estimate is 5.15 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.52%). The increase in production is conducive to enhancing Russia's export capacity of rapeseed oil. The USDA's August estimate of 1.4 million tons of exports (a year - on - year increase of 3.7%) may be revised upwards later. Currently, Russia has not opened up its export to the EU, so China remains its preferred export destination. According to customs data, from January to July 2025, China imported a total of 750,000 tons of rapeseed oil, and the annual import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [10]. - In addition to Russian rapeseed oil, China can also import rapeseed oil from Belarus, Ukraine, and the UAE, but their export volumes are relatively small and only play an auxiliary role. In 2025, the estimated production of Belarusian rapeseed is 1 million tons, and the export volume is temporarily calculated at 200,000 tons per year as in normal years. In the 25/26 season, the production of Ukrainian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the USDA's August estimate of its production is only 3.5 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 7.89%), which limits the amount of rapeseed oil available for export in the new season. Moreover, Ukrainian rapeseed oil will be preferentially exported to the closer EU. This year, its export volume of rapeseed oil to China has decreased significantly, with the export volume from January to July being less than 10,000 tons, and its subsequent export potential is also very limited. The UAE can accept Canadian rapeseed that cannot enter China, but its annual import volume of about 1 million tons of rapeseed is close to the domestic processing limit of 1.1 million tons and cannot be further increased in the short term. From January to July 2025, it exported a total of 120,000 tons of rapeseed oil to China, and its annual export capacity is estimated to be about 300,000 tons [11]. - In general, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil is another supplementary channel for China besides allowing the import of Australian rapeseed. This year, the abundant harvest of new - crop Russian rapeseed is also conducive to increasing its exports to China. The total annual export potential of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is about 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, like Canadian rapeseed, new - crop Russian, UAE, and Belarusian rapeseed oil also start to enter the Chinese market in large quantities after November every year because new - crop Russian and Belarusian rapeseed is harvested and enters the crushing plants for processing after November [12]. III. After August, the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to remain tight, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed determines the tightness amplitude - The annual consumption of rapeseed oil from domestic import sources (imported rapeseed for crushing/direct import of rapeseed oil) is about 2 - 3.5 million tons. In 2023 - 2024, China imported 5.05 million tons and 6.13 million tons of Canadian rapeseed respectively, which can be crushed into 2.17 million tons and 2.64 million tons of rapeseed oil according to the 43% oil yield. In addition, in these two years, China also imported 2.36 million tons and 1.88 million tons of rapeseed oil respectively. The total supply of rapeseed oil from import sources in 2023 - 2024 reached 4.53 million tons and 4.52 million tons respectively, far exceeding the normal domestic consumption, which is the main reason for the serious inventory accumulation of domestic rapeseed oil in these two years and its continuation into 2025 [17]. - In 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. From January to July 2025, China has imported 2 million tons of rapeseed. Calculated according to the lowest consumption level, after July, there is no need to import rapeseed, and even importing only rapeseed oil can meet the domestic consumption demand. Moreover, the current domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historical high, reaching 660,000 tons in the week ending August 29. Currently, there is no shortage of rapeseed oil. However, considering that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for oils and fats and downstream enterprises will stock up in advance, the consumption of rapeseed oil will improve in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it is believed that there is still a supply gap after the absence of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter, but the gap will not be large and will not reach a million - ton - level large gap [18]. - On the premise that China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed products remains unchanged, the import volume of Australian rapeseed is expected to be the biggest factor determining the tightness amplitude of the domestic rapeseed oil supply - demand situation in the second half of 2025 and even in 2026. If the import volume of Australian rapeseed into China is small due to incomplete liberalization in China or large - scale purchases by traditional exporting countries, there will be a certain supply gap in domestic rapeseed, which will help accelerate the depletion of rapeseed oil inventory, which is still at a historical high. However, if a large amount of Australian rapeseed enters China, with the cooperation of the increased import of rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply gap will be largely made up, and the inventory depletion speed of rapeseed oil will also slow down [19]. - In terms of rhythm, it is expected that new - crop Australian rapeseed and Russian/Belarusian/UAE rapeseed oil will not be available in large quantities until after November this year. So, at least before November, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply can get little supplement, and the supply gap is expected to be the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the situation in 2026, it depends more on the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [19].

01 02 油脂：需求好转叠加供应收紧，上行动 力仍存 目 录 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-09-08 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运 行 01 01 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 03 基本面数据回顾 | | 指标属性 | 本周 | 上周 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 华北现货价格 | 3050 | 3050 | 0% | | | 华东现货价格 | 3020 | 3000 | 1% | | | 山东现货价格 | 2980 | 2980 | 0% | | | 华北-山东价差 | 70 | 70 | 0% | | | 华北-华东价差 | 30 | 50 | -40% | | 价格 | 山东-华东价差 | -40 | -20 | 100% | | | 华北基差价格 | -17 | -2 | 750% ...

铜周报：供需存利好预期，宏观推动铜价偏强 2025-9-8 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 需求端：下游消费未有明显起色，步入金九旺季或提振需求。截至9月4日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率上升至69.78%，环比 上升1.66个百分点，同比下降8.37个百分点。上周华北和华东市场由于铜价高位运行，消费表现疲软。华南地区下游线缆企业订单有所 增加叠加月初资金充足，带动华南地区精铜杆企业开工率增长，进而带动精铜杆企业整体开工率的增长。7月铜箔、铜管、铜板带开工 率分别为77.28%、68.94%、65.63%。7月中国铜箔企业开工率继续上升，主要因素是锂电铜箔市场需求强劲。而铜管开工符合下滑 预期，主机厂开始陆续放假，提货速度减慢。7月铜板带开工率受行业淡季，市场需求不佳影响，开工率继续下降。 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 p 供给端：截至9月5日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-40.5美元/吨，周环比增加0.77美元/吨，铜精矿进口粗炼费仍位于低位，矿冶矛盾持 续。截至9月5日，国内铜精矿港口库存56万吨，铜精矿港口库存低位小幅回升，但仍处于历年 ...

长江期货尿素周报： 供求宽松 关注边际改善 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 1 市场变化：价格：受尿素现货报价下调及出货情况不佳影响，盘面市场预期支撑减弱，尿素价格先强后弱。9月5日 尿素2601合约收盘价1713元/吨，较上周下调33元/吨，跌幅1.89%，期间最低跌至1706元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日 均价1699元/吨，较上周下调28元/吨，跌幅1.62%。基差：9月5日河南市场主力基差-14元/吨，周度基差运行区间 （-35）—（-3）元/吨。价差：9月5日9-1价差-51元/吨，周度运行区间（-73）—（-50 ）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率79.13%，较上周降低2.6个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率71.15%，较 上周降低0.65个百分点，尿素日均产量18.27万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投降温，价格以稳为主，截至9月4日，山西 晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价840-900元/吨，山西阳泉地区S1-1.5无烟洗块含税价760-800元/吨，均较上周同期 收盘价格重心持平。需求端全国农业需求此阶段较分散。复合肥企业产能运行率33.08% ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a strategy of buying on pullbacks for glass futures. In the traditional peak season, the sales in Hubei have continued to improve, and the downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work, so the regional production and sales are expected to pick up. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. Technically, the bullish force is stable and the bearish force is weakening, with the market returning to the 1150 - 1200 range. Although there are uncertainties about the anti - involution news and the market is expected to pull back, the fundamentals and macro factors are still favorable. It is recommended to partially take profits on the previous 01 long positions and focus on the support range of 1130 - 1140 for buying on pullbacks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and复产 of a production line. The national inventory remained stable, with significant inventory increases in North China and inventory decreases in Hubei. The downstream mid - and long - term replenishment led to improved market trading sentiment. The supply and inventory pressure of soda ash is still high, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the soda - glass price difference. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the market may pull back [2]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [2][3] 2. Market Review - Futures Price - Spot Price: As of September 5, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged). - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,189 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - Soda - Glass Price Difference: As of September 5, the soda futures price was 1,302 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,189 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 113 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 198 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [16] 4. Profit - The cost and gross profit of glass production using different processes changed little. The natural gas - based process had a cost of 1,579 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 379 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan); the coal - gas - based process had a cost of 1,154 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) and a gross profit of - 14 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the petroleum - coke - based process had a cost of 1,093 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 3 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [19] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (up 600 tons). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. A production line in Hunan Zhuzhou Qibin resumed production last week [21] 6. Inventory - As of September 5, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 63.05 million weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes). The inventory in North China increased significantly, while that in Hubei decreased [25] 7. Deep - processing - Production and Sales Rate: On September 4, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 88% (down 8%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 5, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (up 0.75 days) [31] 8. Demand - Automobile - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. - In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [40] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In July, China's real estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (down 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (down 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (down 8%). - From August 25 to August 31, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.07 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. - In July, real estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [47] 10. Cost - Soda - Spot Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda in North China was 1,325 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in East China was 1,250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); and in South China was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,302 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the basis of the soda Central China 09 contract was - 2 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan) [50][54] 11. Cost - Soda - Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda enterprises using the ammonia - alkali method was - 37 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), and the profit using the co - production method was - 48 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [57][59] 12. Cost - Soda - Production - Last week, the domestic soda production was 751,700 tons (a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons), including 411,200 tons of heavy soda (a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons) and 340,500 tons of light soda (a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons). The loss was 120,300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons). - At the end of last week, the exchange soda warehouse receipts were 18,484 (a week - on - week increase of 2,487). As of September 5, the national in - factory inventory of soda was 1.8221 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons) [64][65] 13. Cost - Soda - Apparent Consumption - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda was 461,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,800 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda was 335,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons. - Last week, the production and sales rate of soda was 106.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. In July, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 25.8 days [70][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].