1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the 2024 - 25 season, global cotton demand grew steadily driven by China and the US, but the significant increase in production led to weak prices. In the domestic market, due to a sharp reduction in imports, the spot market was tight, prices were relatively firm, and the basis was high with a large gap between domestic and international prices. In the 2025 - 26 season, global production will continue to grow, while the demand side has uncertainties as China's economy is expected to recover but the US economy is uncertain. Considering the tight domestic spot market, cotton prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern next year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factor Analysis - **Gradual recovery of social retail data**: From January to October 2025, China's social consumer goods retail market showed stable growth, structural optimization, and urban - rural coordination. The total retail sales from January to October reached 4.12169 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. With policy and technological support, the annual total is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan [4][7]. - **Relatively large pressure on price levels**: In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, moderately recovering" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then decreased in November (down 0.3% month - on - month), but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In 2026, prices are expected to rise moderately [8][11]. - **Expected steady recovery of the macro - economy**: With policy changes, the macro - economy is expected to show a steady recovery. On the supply side, measures include increasing high - quality service supply and reducing over - capacity. On the demand side, external demand from the US and Europe is expected to be stable, and domestic demand potential lies in service consumption [12][13]. - **Strong resilience of the US economy**: In November, the US PMI was supported by the service sector, with manufacturing declining, consumer spending slowing, and corporate investment to be further restored. The third - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized. The employment market showed some signs of recovery, but there were still risks of layoffs. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut fluctuated greatly [14][21]. 3.2 Cotton Supply Analysis - **Slightly loose global supply - demand balance**: According to the USDA's November report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, an increase of 2.0% from September; consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, an increase of 0.04%; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The ending inventory has reached a recent high [23]. - **Tight domestic supply - demand situation**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic beginning inventory is 6.16 million tons, and the production is 7.42 million tons. The total demand is expected to be 8.45 million tons, with the ending inventory decreasing to 6.33 million tons. The domestic market is relatively tight due to reduced imports and stable consumption [25]. - **Tight commercial and industrial inventories**: As of November 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 24.2% from the end of October but 5.31% lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons year - on - year. The overall inventory is still limited [26]. 3.3 Cotton Spinning Consumption Analysis - **Strong US consumption**: From January to August 2025, the US textile and clothing imports increased by 4.43% in volume and 1.47% in value year - on - year. The cotton product imports increased by 3.83% in volume and 4.66% in value. In September, the retail sales of clothing and accessories increased by 6.65% year - on - year [31]. - **Export performance with high - then - low trend**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59%. From January to October, the exports were 243.936 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%. The export situation was better in the first half of the year [34]. - **Steady growth of domestic demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1205.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [38]. 3.4 Main Concerns - **Changes in Xinjiang cotton planting policy**: The continuous increase in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production has put pressure on the supply - demand balance and increased subsidy costs. The direct subsidy policy is likely to be adjusted, and there may be other policies to adjust the planting area [43]. - **Changes in the RMB exchange rate**: With the depreciation of the US dollar and the strength of China's manufacturing, the RMB is appreciating, which may bring pressure on textile and clothing exports [44]. - **Sustainability of US consumption**: Although the US textile and clothing consumption has been strong, there are concerns about the US economy due to weak employment data and PMI. However, the Fed's interest - rate cuts may support the economy [45]. 3.5 Market Outlook In 2026, the global cotton market is expected to see both supply and demand increase. The domestic spot market will remain tight. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and China's economic recovery, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward - trending, but attention should be paid to policy, exchange - rate, and consumption changes [46].

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 黑色产业服务中心 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 证 监期 货 字 [2014]1 号 黑色金属团队 研究员 供需矛盾向上传导 产能出清仍需时间 自 2022 年新开工面积出现断崖式下降后，每年降幅均在 20%以上，因 此无论是将数据后置两年还是三年，地产竣工端的需求是逐年转差的。玻璃 行业整体供需错配的矛盾，已经从下游地产端传导至中游贸易加工环节，其 表现即是 2025 年有相当数量的中游厂商出现资金链条紧张、经营范围收缩和 常备库存减少的情况。那么在需求持续走弱的背景下，2026 年玻璃行业的矛 盾将会进一步恶化，并加快从中游贸易加工环节向上游原片生产供应端的传 导，从而推动产能出清。因此 2026 年的产线冷修压力将会更大，考虑到玻璃 产线冷修高成本的特点，预计明年还是以关停 600 吨/日左右的小产线为主。 但是，经过我们测算，当下日熔仍处于高位水平，这里大胆预测日熔可能要 降到 13 万吨以下，才能匹配需求的减量，否则价格很难有趋势性的上涨动力。 综上，2026 年同样是考验产业链上下游企业如何持续经营、消化库存、稳定 利润的一年，在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 全球植物油：供应端，USDA11 月预估 25/26 年度全球植物油增产放慢，其中 菜油增产幅度最大而棕油增产最小。需求端，各国生物柴油政策发力，在增强油脂 国内消费的同时缩紧了油脂出口，不过总需求依然同比增长。需求增幅大于供应增 幅，25/26 年度全球植物油期末库存及库销比均同比下降，供需继续收紧，对植物油 价格有支撑。后续全球油脂市场的不确定性将主要集中于南美大豆/印尼棕油产量和 各国生物柴油政策上，可能造成价格剧烈波动：一是 25/26 年度美豆及南美豆因为 天气炒作，印尼棕油因为种植园强征等原因导致产量下降，收紧供应。二是美国和 印尼利多植物油生柴需求的生柴政策能否成功落地。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询 业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 棕油：供应端，目前市场对 2026 年东南亚棕油产量预估较为乐观，印尼两国均 同比增产。需求端，印度人口增长带来的刚性需求与印尼 B40 计划支撑，2025 年 产地棕油出口及国内消费有望维持强劲。供需双强下，25/26 年度印马库存预计都 同比下滑，马来库存历史中位，印尼库存则是更紧张的历史低位。 ...

2025-12-08 公司资质 苹果年报 产业服务总部 供减质劣，震荡走强 棉纺产业服务中心 ◆ 报告要点 2024-25 年度，苹果由于入库减少，叠加品质下滑，优果优价明显， 整体价格相比上一年度也有所抬升。2025-26 年度，苹果整体呈现个小、 品质继续下滑的情况，整体入库量进一步下滑，新年度苹果价格或分化 明显。 风险点：苹果市场消费情况；宏观消费政策变化；天气因素； 2024-25 年度，苹果由于入库减少，叠加品质下滑，优果优价明显，整体价格相比上一年度也有所 抬升。2025-26 年度，苹果整体呈现个小、品质继续下滑的情况，整体入库量进一步下滑，新年度苹果 价格或分化明显。 一、2025 年苹果市场行情回顾 2025 年苹果期货市场呈现阶段性上涨、高位震荡的核心特征，全年走势受供应端（产量、质量、库 存）与消费端（需求分化）的共同驱动，具体可分为以下关键阶段： 研究员 黄尚海 咨询电话：027- 65777089 从业编号：F0270997 投资咨询编号：Z0002826 棉纺中心|苹果年报 图 1：苹果年度走势 资料来源：IFIND、长江期货 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The egg supply in 2026: The number of newly opened laying hens from January to May is expected to be average, with no significant pressure. If the Spring Festival market fails to meet expectations, it may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure, but the inventory base in the first half of 2026 remains high [1][2][43]. - The egg demand in 2026: The consumption is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise. The demand will pick up due to festivals, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality is expected to narrow [1][2][43]. - The feed cost in 2026: It is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. The feed cost per catty of eggs is estimated to be between 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [2][41][44]. - The market outlook for 2026: There may be a phased rebound, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic [2][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Egg Market Review - The main theme of the spot price in 2025 was weak, with the price fluctuating in the range of 【2.54, 4.45】 yuan/catty, and the center of gravity moving down year - on - year [6]. - The price fluctuation went through five stages: decline from January to February, rebound and then decline from March to April, weak operation from April to early July, rise and then decline from mid - July to mid - September, and decline and then narrow - range fluctuation from late September to late November [6][7][8]. Fundamental Logic Analysis Supply Side - **In - production laying hen inventory**: In 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and reached a peak. As of November, it was at a high level in the past six years, and although it is currently declining, the base is still large [13][14]. - **Chick replenishment**: In 2025, the replenishment volume decreased year - on - year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back. The newly opened laying hens from January to May 2026 are expected to be at an average level, with no significant pressure [17][18]. - **Elimination of laying hens**: In 2025, the elimination volume increased year - on - year, with high elimination in May - June and October - November. The current chicken age structure is relatively young. If the Spring Festival market is disappointing, it may relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure [20][22][23]. - **Inventory forecast for 2026**: From January to May 2026, the number of newly opened laying hens is not large. If the elimination accelerates during the Spring Festival, the inventory may decline, but the base is still high, and capacity reduction takes time [29][30]. Demand Side - **Consumption seasonality**: In 2025, egg consumption was still driven by festivals, with obvious seasonal patterns. The price fluctuation caused by seasonality has narrowed due to inventory adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Substitute demand analysis**: In the first half of 2026, the high pressure of pig slaughter and the expected decline of vegetable prices may reduce the cost - effectiveness of eggs and weaken the substitute demand. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to pig capacity reduction and extreme weather [37]. Cost Side - The cost of corn in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 2100 - 2350 yuan/ton, with a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - The supply and demand of soybean meal in 2026 are both strong, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price may fall after March [40]. - The feed cost for laying hens in 2026 is estimated to be 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [41]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relieved, but the inventory base is still high, which will limit the rebound height. - The demand is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality will narrow. - The feed cost is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. - There may be a phased rebound in the market, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - atmosphere is generally warm. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive as it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan". However, demand still lacks highlights, and supply becomes the key variable. Raw materials face downward pressure, steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review 1.1 Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated in a "down - up - down" pattern with a small amplitude. The first decline was due to overseas tariff policies and cost reduction, the rise in July was from anti - involution, and the second decline was from the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spread between the high and low points of the weighted closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils was only about 500 yuan [5]. - The average prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly, with an annual average decline of over 25%. The average price of iron ore decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (6.88% decline), and the average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased by about 300 yuan/ton (about 8.5% decline). The cost center of steel products moved down [9]. 1.2 Industrial Pattern - **Demand**: Domestic consumption of crude steel continued to decline, but steel and billet exports maintained high growth. From January to October, the cumulative apparent demand for crude steel decreased by 6.51% year - on - year, steel exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and net exports increased by 653 tons. The cumulative export of billets from January to October was 11.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 million tons [15]. - **Supply**: The consumption of scrap steel and the output of crude steel declined. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of pig iron and crude steel output were - 1.8% and - 3.9% respectively. The consumption of scrap steel decreased by 13.3% year - on - year. The output of rebar decreased by 4.8 million tons ( - 2.0% growth rate), and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.8 million tons (5.30% growth rate) [19][23][27]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of iron ore and coking coal slightly declined, and inventories decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year. From January to October, the output of iron ore concentrate decreased by 3.70%, and imports increased by 0.62%. The supply of coking coal changed little year - on - year, with domestic production increasing by 1.17% and imports decreasing by 4.73%. The combined inventory of 247 sample steel mills and port trading mines decreased by about 10.65 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and the coking coal and coke inventory decreased by about 5.5 million tons [31][32]. 2026 Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macroeconomy - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half". After restarting rate cuts in September and October 2025, it is expected to cut rates again in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 3% - 3.25%, providing more room and autonomy for China's monetary policy [40]. 2.2 Domestic Macroeconomy - 2026 is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with expected positive policy tones. Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand may be the key focus [45]. 2.3 Infrastructure Demand - Since the second half of 2025, infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly. Policy tools such as new policy - based financial instruments and increased local government debt quotas have been introduced. Policy effects may be gradually released at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 [49]. 2.4 Real Estate Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to decline. The real estate development model is changing from an incremental to a stock market. In 2026, real estate is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 10% decline in real estate investment and a continued decline in steel consumption for real estate [54]. 2.5 Manufacturing Demand - Since the second half of 2025, the monthly investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has turned negative, with significant industry differentiation. In 2026, manufacturing investment is still under pressure, but industry differentiation will be severe [58]. 2.6 Import and Export Demand - In 2025, despite anti - dumping and trade wars, steel exports maintained growth due to changes in export destinations and varieties. In 2026, although challenges remain, steel exports are expected to remain high due to corporate expansion overseas and adjustment of export structures [60][62]. 2.7 Supply - In 2026, policy influence on the steel supply side may increase. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes carbon emission control, and it is possible to restrict steel production through carbon emissions, which may become the main trading logic in the market [66][69]. 2.8 Raw Materials - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production may be regulated according to demand. Mongolian coking coal imports are expected to increase by about 7 million tons [74]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas iron ore supply is expected to increase by about 72 million tons in 2026, while domestic production will remain stable. The supply of overseas iron ore projects is progressing faster than domestic ones [87]. 3. Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive. Industry - wise, demand lacks highlights, supply is the key variable, and raw materials face downward pressure. Steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials. Opportunities in going long on steel and short on iron ore can be considered [88][89][91].

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 [2014]1 号 研究员： 汪国栋 咨询电话：027-65777106 从业编号：F03101701 投资咨询编号：Z0021167 相关研究 2025-12-08 《行情仍然可期》 -2025.7.2 《政策预期引导，价格循序渐进》 -2024.12.27 《牛途未尽，逢低买入》 -2024.6.28 《布局多头，关注预期差》 -2023.12.28 《短期调整，不改长期配置价值》 -2023.7.3 《周期切换可期，运行中枢上移》 -2022.12.27 流动性支撑，牛市延续 产业服务总部 ——贵金属年度策略 有色产业服务中心 报告要点 ◆ 总观点 美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱，导致美国 经济预期恶化。前期美国经济保持韧性，在于美国财政赤字持续大规模 扩张支持居民和企业资产负债表修复，如果美国财政力度在 2026 年财年 后期大幅削减，可能对经济形成拖累。美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言， 市场预期 12 月降息概率大幅升温。哈塞特可能成为下任美联储主席，哈 塞特与特朗普关系紧密，并主张降息，市场预期明年降息次数增加。 美元信 ...

2025-12-8 通胀筑底回升，市场慢牛延续 长江期货 ——2026 年金融期货年报 核心观点 2025 年，中国资本市场在外部环境扰动、内部政策调 节、科技产业突破的三重博弈中度过。A 股市场制度不断完 善，慢牛格局逐步稳定，核心驱动力始终围绕政策预期与风险 偏好的波动展开，市场在外部冲击与内部托底的反复拉扯中完 成多轮切换。今年市场的上涨更多是估值驱动，在基本面温和 复苏的路径下，2026 年或逐步转向盈利驱动。 展望 2026 年，中国经济将在财政积极与货币协同的双宽 松格局下，步入宏观温和复苏、微观盈利筑底修复的新阶段。 经济增长预计保持韧性，CPI 与 PPI 价格的温和回升将成为驱 动企业盈利改善的关键宏观要素。资本市场的主导逻辑将从 2025 年的估值与预期修复，有望转向由基本面驱动的真实盈 利增长。在这一背景下，股市或呈现结构性机遇，而债市则将 在政策的平衡与制约中呈现区间震荡格局。 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 {2014}1 号 研究员 张志恒 从业证号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 咨询电话：027-65777169 （一）股指期 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...