1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

玻璃：市场传闻扰动 低位震荡偏多 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-9 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：震荡偏多 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货先涨后跌，周线报收上影小阳线。江苏中玻两条产线停产，外加部分传闻，推涨盘面，但基本面 逻辑始终压制价格，盘面重回原先震荡区间。基差方面，沙河安全-124元/吨，湖北明弘48元/吨，湖北地区价格偏高，关注沙 河地区期现套利机会。月间方面，5-9价差-99元/吨，冷修预期推涨远月，目前反套空间不大，等待为宜。供给方面，上周两 条产线停产，日熔量降至15万吨以下。库存方面，湖北持平，沙河低价策略下，厂家库存降至低位。需求方面， 部分区域受制 镜出口订单赶单支撑，出货维持尚可。华东除集团型深加工及地方性大型加工厂存部分出口订单及年底尾单赶工，其余多数厂 家陆续停工放假。纯碱方面，近期出现较多检修，盘面绝对价格偏低，建议观望。 后市展望：行业传闻扰动不断，虽然玻璃上方压力仍存，但期货价格再次降至相对低位，主力到期前仍有时间酝酿变数。 技术上 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高套保节后合约 | | ◆玉米： | 谨慎追高，等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range - trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Waiting and seeing for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range - trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9][11] - Energy and chemicals: Range - trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][17][19] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][27][28] - Agriculture and livestock: Short - term shorting opportunities on rebounds for live pigs; hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies for eggs; cautious about chasing high for corn; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting short - term limited回调 for oils and fats [1][29][34] 2. Core Views - The report provides comprehensive investment suggestions for various futures markets, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical situations. It emphasizes the need to pay attention to market trends, inventory changes, and policy impacts in different industries [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The market shows strong resilience. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29%. The defense, machinery, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range. There is no obvious major negative news in the bond market, but there is no further impetus for interest rates to decline. After the repair since the beginning of the year, the space for bond yields to decline is limited [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal is expected to trade in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has shown short - term fluctuations recently, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and coal mine inventory clearance [6][7] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range. On Tuesday, the rebar futures price traded in a range. The valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term [7] - Glass is recommended to be bought on dips. Although there are negative factors such as inventory and demand, the futures price is relatively low, and there are positive news in the real estate sector. Technically, the short - side strength is weakening [7][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to have high - level volatility, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Macro factors have dominated the market this week, causing copper prices to fluctuate sharply. The supply is still tight, but the demand is weakening. There is a risk of high - level correction before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum is expected to have high - level volatility, and increased waiting and seeing is recommended. The bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina inventory is increasing. The demand for downstream aluminum processing enterprises is weakening, and short - term high - level volatility is expected [10][11] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction has boosted the market, the fundamental situation is weak. Different nickel products have different supply - demand situations, and the price increase drive is insufficient [12][13] - Tin is expected to trade in a range. The domestic tin production and imports have changed. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin concentrate is tight. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand changes [13] - Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range. Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, but the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. The medium - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up [14][15] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [16][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to have low - level wide - range volatility. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. However, the export has growth potential. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [17] - Caustic soda is expected to have low - level volatility, and temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It may have support if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [19] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease due to factors such as export increases and device maintenance, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The global supply is in the seasonal reduction stage, and the cost has support. However, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [20][21] - Urea is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory level is relatively low. The price is expected to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [22][23] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from the olefin industry is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [24][25] - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The price increase space is limited [25][26] - Soda ash: Temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. After the supply contraction, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [26] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, with a decrease in production and an increase in consumption. The internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [27][28] - Apples are expected to trade in a range. The packaging and shipping in the production areas are slightly accelerating, but the overall market is stable and weak, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell [28] - Jujubes are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [28] Agriculture and livestock - Live pigs are expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short term, the supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is necessary to be cautious about the price increase [29][30] - Eggs are expected to rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies. Considering the high probability of molting and extension of laying periods around the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will be postponed [31][32] - Corn's upward space is limited. In the short term, the market is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, which restricts the price increase [33][34] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a low - level range. In the short term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range, and the 05 contract is expected to face pressure at 2800 - 2850. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas weather and domestic policies [35] - Oils and fats are expected to have a limited回调. In the short term, the three major oils and fats are expected to回调 but with limited amplitude. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions on rebounds and wait to buy on dips [36][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international crude oil prices, weakening support for vegetable oils. Coupled with profit - taking by funds after the previous sharp rise, the risk of a short - term high - level correction in domestic oils has increased. However, the strong fundamentals of soybean and palm oils remain unchanged, so the correction range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long. Among them, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively stronger, while rapeseed oil will be relatively weaker [1][19]. - In the long - term, after the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of domestic and international oils will gradually ease, leading to a correction in domestic oils. But with the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and positive macro - situation, along with potential positive factors such as Indonesia's production reduction risk and the US biodiesel policy, the general direction of oils is upward. After the correction caused by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, a bullish approach should still be taken [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Short - term: The strong fundamentals of palm oil will last until February, and with the spill - over effect of US biodiesel policies, the correction range of spot and futures prices is limited. After the emotional decline, there is still upward momentum. However, the relatively high inventory levels in Malaysia and China will limit its further upward space. For example, in January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased while exports increased, and the inventory is expected to decline further in February [5]. - Long - term: Starting from March, Malaysian palm oil production may rebound, while consumption demand will weaken, which may lead to a price correction. But considering the positive domestic macro - situation in 2026, low inventory and potential production reduction in Indonesia, and the possibility of implementing the B50 biodiesel plan, the correction range is expected to be limited, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [6]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Similar to palm oil, soybean oil is supported by both domestic and foreign positive factors, and the correction is expected to be limited. Positive factors include strong US soybean demand, potential US biodiesel policies, the early - stage harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the drought in Argentina. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the risk of the US biodiesel policy falling short of expectations will limit its upward space [12]. - Long - term: After the Spring Festival, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of domestic soybean supply - demand will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean oil prices. In the third quarter, soybean oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention on the purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans, the sowing and growth of US new - crop soybeans, and the progress of biodiesel policies [13]. Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Although the current spot supply - demand of domestic rapeseed oil is still tight, after the China - Canada negotiation, there is news that China has increased the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the first batch of Australian rapeseed has been processed. The supply - demand tension is expected to ease marginally, making its fundamentals weaker than those of soybean and palm oils. The price trend will follow the latter two, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US relations [15][16]. - Long - term: In the 25/26 season, global rapeseed production (except in Ukraine) has increased year - on - year, with general demand, showing a clear pattern of looser supply - demand. In China, due to the improvement of China - Canada and China - Australia relations, the supply - demand of rapeseed is expected to continue to ease, and the price of far - month rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [17].

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

长江期货贵金属周报 鹰派预期升温，价格大幅回调 2026/2/1 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，黄金价 格回调。截至上周五，美黄金报收4908美元/盎司，周 内下跌1.5%，关注上方压力位5060，下方支撑位4750。 17.0000 37.0000 57.0000 77.0000 97.0000 117.0000 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，白 银价格大幅回调。截至上周五，周度跌幅17.4%，报 收85.3美元/盎司，关注下方支撑位78，上方压力位 90。 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色 ...

长江期货聚烯烃月报 01 核心观点总结 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-02 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，逢高沽空为主 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月30日塑料主力合约收盘价7014元/吨，月环比+8.37%。LDPE均价为9066.67元/吨，月环比+7.94%，HDPE均 价为7337.50元/吨，环比+6.92%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7213.89元/吨，环比+10.67%。LLDPE华南基差收于 199.89元/吨，环比331.41%，5-9月差-55元/吨（-33）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6824元/吨，较上月末+476元/吨，环比 +7.50%。生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6720元/吨（+2.13%）。PP基差收-104元/吨（-28），5-9月差-33元/吨（-1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率85.35%，较上周+0.68个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量70.60万吨，环 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 长江期货养殖产业月报 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 目 02 鸡蛋：供应压力仍存，盘面偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：供需相对平衡，盘面震荡运行 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 u 期现货：截至1月30日，全国生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.46元/公斤；河南生猪均价12.46元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.72元/公斤，03期货价格收于11220元/吨，较上月 底下跌575元/吨，跌幅4.87%；03合约基差1240元/吨，较上月底跌145元/吨。1月猪价先涨后跌，月均价重心抬升，因12月出栏超预期，1月中上旬企业出栏节奏偏慢，二育进 场和养殖端惜售，叠加中旬降温降雪天气，支撑价格上涨；下旬企业出栏节奏恢复，而春节备货尚早，终端需求不及预期，屠宰量下滑，猪价高位回落。期货主力03在宏观情绪 扰动下，跟随现货先扬后抑，03贴水收窄，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能 ...