金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国通胀"爆表"，7 月 PPI 环比飙升至 0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至 3.3%。 美国 PPI 数据显示美国批发通胀意外强劲，打压周二 CPI 数据助燃的 9 月美 联储降息预期。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密集等 因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中期趋 势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债券市场仍面临风险资产的掣肘格局。尽管权益市场终结了八连阳走势， 但从日内表现来看，调整深度较为有限，仅回踩至 5 日均线附近便重拾涨势， 且单日成交量再度攀升至 2.3 万亿高位。尽管部分资金选择阶段性止盈，但 增量资金持续涌入，呈现出"逢调买入"特征，当前权益占优的格局可能仍未 到逆转时候，短期仍对债市形成明显压制，制约了债市的修复进程。关注周 五即将公布的经济数据表现，是否能给债市提供阶段性支撑。 ◆ 策略建议： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F308 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Sideways movement [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Wait - and - see; Iron ore - Sideways movement; Coking coal and coke - Sideways movement [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Range trading or wait - and - see; Aluminum - Buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - Wait - and - see or short on rallies; Tin - Range trading; Gold - Range trading; Silver - Range trading [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Sideways movement; Soda ash - Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - Sideways movement; Styrene - Sideways movement; Rubber - Sideways movement; Urea - Sideways movement; Methanol - Sideways movement; Polyolefins - Wide - range sideways movement [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Sideways with a bullish bias; Apple - Sideways with a bullish bias; Jujube - Sideways with a bullish bias [1][33] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs - Short on rallies; Eggs - Short on rallies; Corn - Wide - range sideways movement; Soybean meal - Range - bound; Oils and fats - Sideways with a bullish bias [1][36][40] Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own characteristics [6][8][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The index is expected to be strong in the medium - term. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate around the high point, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate bidirectionally in the near term. The possibility of a rebound at key positions is increasing, but the market still lacks a clear direction [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term. The futures price is expected to remain sideways. Investors can wait and see or engage in short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price is expected to move sideways with a slightly bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The coke market is supported by cost, low inventory, and supply - tightening expectations, but the impact of steel demand fluctuations needs to be noted [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and inventory changes. The short - term operating range is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to be sideways in the short term. With the arrival of the peak season in August, investors are advised to buy on dips [12] - **Other Metals**: Nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies; tin and silver are recommended for range trading; gold is recommended to be bought on dips after price pullbacks [15][16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The 09 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 2400 - 2550 yuan/ton [22] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton [24] - **Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to be strongly sideways. The focus is on the range of 15200 - 15600 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be range - bound. The support level is 1700 - 1730 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [27] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply and demand [29] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is expected to be weakly sideways. The L2509 contract is focused on the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the range of 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash is recommended to hold short positions [32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias due to factors such as improved global supply - demand and the approaching peak season [33][34] - **Apple**: The apple market is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. Attention should be paid to the quality and price trends of early - maturing apples [34] - **Jujube**: The jujube price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate around 14000. The 11 and 01 contracts may have a limited rebound. The 03 contract is under pressure, while the 05 contract is relatively strong. Attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][37][38] - **Eggs**: The 09 contract is expected to have limited upward space. The 10 and 11 contracts in the fourth quarter can be shorted on rallies after waiting. If the elimination process accelerates, the 12 and 01 contracts can be bought on dips [38] - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2300 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The M2511 and M2601 contracts can hold long positions and reduce positions on rallies. Spot enterprises can build long positions [42] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be strongly sideways. Caution should be exercised when chasing the rise, and existing long positions should be gradually closed. Attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][49]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国财长贝森特：美国利率水平应比当前低 150 到 175 个基点。中国 7 月新 增社融 1.16 万亿元，人民币贷款减少 500 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。央行 主管媒体：不宜过度炒作单月信贷增量波动。9 月降息预期继续巩固，贝森特 强化市场降息幅度。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密 集等因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中 期趋势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做 多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 后续市场延续反弹还是延续下跌通道仍然需要观察，而且从近期现券市场情 况看，债市持续缺乏赚钱效应，导致一部分配置资金的持续流出，短线行情 走强反而刺激更多资金的流出。近期债市可能还会维持一段时间的双向波动， 对于头寸灵活的资金来看有波动总比没有波动更有机会。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 研究咨询部 2025-08-14 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, 2025, the preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in China was released. Starting from August 14, importers need to pay an additional deposit to the customs when importing Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit rate of 75.8% for all Canadian companies. This will suppress the trading willingness of importers and exporters and reduce the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][12]. - The implementation of the anti - dumping preliminary ruling will hinder the import of Canadian rapeseed after August 14. Coupled with limited alternative sources of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second half of the year, the already significantly reduced rapeseed import volume in the second half of 2025 will decline further. As the second half of the year is the peak season for oil consumption, it is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil, which is currently de - stocking slowly and has the highest inventory level in history, thus benefiting the spot and futures prices and basis performance of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - Currently, the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the policy may change before the final ruling. In the future, new Australian rapeseed may re - enter China, and China may also increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE. The consumption substitution of other oils for rapeseed oil will also affect the price of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - In terms of strategy, the 09 and 01 contracts of rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, hitting the previous pressure level of 10,500 - 11,000. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and those who already hold long positions should continue to hold. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread of rapeseed oil and the rebound of the 01 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. In addition, focus on China's import policies related to rapeseed and rapeseed oil [2][13][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed Imports - The deposit for importing Canadian rapeseed is calculated based on the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed. Taking the rapeseed import cost on August 12 as an example, the deposit for the November shipment of Canadian rapeseed is 3,322 yuan/ton. The deposit is levied on Canadian companies, and domestic enterprises may also face the risk of deposit transfer [5]. - After the implementation of the new rule, the trading willingness of importers and exporters has been severely suppressed. It is difficult to add new Canadian rapeseed purchase contracts, and some existing purchase contracts after August may be cancelled. Since June, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed has gradually declined. The estimated total import volume of rapeseed from July to October is 590,000 tons, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period last year, and there is a possibility of further tightening [7]. Limited Alternative Sources of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Although the import sources of domestic rapeseed oil are diverse, no country can supply as much as Canada. Since March, China has imposed a 100% anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed oil, and the import volume has shrunk rapidly [7]. - The possibility of Australian rapeseed re - entering the Chinese market has increased significantly, but the expected output of Australian rapeseed in the 25/26 season is only 5.71 million tons, and it also needs to supply traditional markets such as the EU and Japan. The amount that can be exported to China may be quite limited, and the peak export season starts in November, so it cannot make up for the absence of Canadian rapeseed from September to October [8]. - Russia's rapeseed production is expected to increase to 5.3 million tons in the 25/26 season, but its rapeseed oil will not enter China in large quantities until October. The import volume of Russian rapeseed oil from October to December in 2023 - 24 was lower than the rapeseed oil output converted from the import volume of Canadian rapeseed during the same period [8]. - The annual rapeseed crushing capacity of the UAE is only about 1 million tons, and its export volume of rapeseed oil to China from July to December in 2023 - 24 was relatively small [8]. Impact on Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Due to the import obstruction of Canadian rapeseed and limited alternative sources, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed will be significantly tightened in the second half of 2025. Coupled with the peak consumption season of oils in the fourth quarter, the supply will decrease while the demand increases, which will accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil. As of the week of August 8, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 659,200 tons, still at the highest level in history, and there is still supply pressure. Accelerating inventory reduction will help the spot and futures prices and basis of domestic rapeseed oil to rise further [10]. - The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the final ruling will be determined between September 2025 and March 2026 at the latest. Before the final ruling, the regulations on the import of Canadian rapeseed may change. In addition, China may re - allow the import of Australian rapeseed and increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE, which will affect the price of rapeseed oil [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Steel rebar is advised to wait and see, iron ore and coking coal & coke are expected to move sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, nickel is for waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to move sideways, polyolefins are for wide - range sideways movement, and soda ash is for shorting the 09 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][20][23][26] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are for sideways adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][37][38] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is for wide - range sideways movement, soybean meal is for limited upside, and oils are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][40][43][45] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as economic data, policies, and international events. For example, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has a positive impact on the index, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors in each industry determine the price trends of different commodities [6][21][41] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and positive policies in China, the index is expected to be strong in the medium - term. Although it may oscillate in the short - term, it is still a good opportunity to go long on pullbacks [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has shown some characteristics of weak assets being hard to rise and easy to fall. Although the current yield has attracted some attention, the market adjustment may not be fully cleared, and attention should be paid to the market disturbance caused by the unstable liabilities of trading institutions [6] Black Building Materials - **Steel Rebar**: The futures price oscillated upward on Tuesday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption of coking coal production [8] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price was strong on Tuesday. Although there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal demand, considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore futures are expected to move sideways with an upward bias and can be used as a long leg when shorting other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market is short - term sideways with an upward bias but the marginal support is weakening. The coke market is stable with an upward bias, but the short - term fluctuation risk is increasing. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and inventory changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to positive economic data in China, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and low inventory, copper prices are supported at high levels. However, it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11] - **Aluminum**: Affected by factors such as the decrease in bauxite supply and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the market is expected to move sideways in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [13] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The mine support is weakening, and the price is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [16] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the new US tariff, employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8700 - 9500 and the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 4900 - 5100 for the 09 contract [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 2400 - 2550, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the peak - season contracts [23] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation, supply, and demand are all facing challenges. The macro - environment is relatively warm, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 7100 - 7400 [26] - **Rubber**: Due to the strengthening of raw material price expectations and cost support, and the continuous decline in inventory, the rubber price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the demand for compound fertilizers is increasing. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and restricted at the top, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [31] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term affected by the overall industrial product price fluctuations [32] - **Polyolefins**: In the traditional off - season, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to increase in the new season. The downstream consumption is light, but the spot is tight. The price is expected to move sideways [37] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth factors, apples are expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the quality and price trends of early - maturing apples [38] - **Jujubes**: With the improvement of the trading atmosphere in the sales area and the increase in good - quality prices, jujubes are expected to rise in the short - term [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom out and oscillate. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trading strategies [40][41] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has a rebound expectation, but the 09 contract basis is at a low level, and the rebound space is limited. Different contracts in the fourth quarter have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to the elimination situation [42] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long - term, due to cost increases and phased supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to go long on dips for relevant contracts [45][47] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy, the price is expected to move sideways with an upward bias. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of rapeseed oil [48][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic data is positive, and there are hopes of a Fed rate cut, leading to a generally strong and volatile trend in non - ferrous metals [1][2] - Different non - ferrous metals have different market performances. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, aluminum is in an upward trend with short - term volatility, and zinc has limited upward momentum [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Views Copper - China's positive economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory provide high - level support for copper prices, but it is in the off - season, and short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Suggested operations are range trading or waiting and seeing [2] Aluminum - The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, supporting ore prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are both increasing. Aluminum prices are in an upward trend but with short - term volatility. It is recommended to go long on dips in August [2] Zinc - Zinc concentrate supply is loose, and domestic demand is weak in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to have limited upward momentum, with the main contract operating in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Suggested operation is range trading [2] Lead - LME and Comex lead inventories have decreased, and domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [2] Nickel - In the medium and long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies, with the main contract operating in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel is recommended for range trading in the range of 12,600 - 13,100 yuan/ton [3] Tin - In the off - season, demand is weak, and prices are volatile. Tin ore supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range for the Shanghai Tin 09 contract being 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3] Industrial Silicon - Production and inventory data show mixed trends. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Polysilicon has high risks, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - Due to mine - end production disruptions, prices are strong. It is expected that short - term prices will be supported, and it is recommended for cautious trading [3] Non - ferrous Metal Inventory - Different non - ferrous metals have different inventory trends. For example, copper's global inventory has increased week - on - week, while tin's global inventory has decreased week - on - week [7] Macro - economic Data - China's July service industry PMI continued to expand, and exports increased year - on - year. The US service industry PMI was close to stagnation in July [9][11][14] Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - Each non - ferrous metal has corresponding price trend charts and key data tracking, such as copper's LME copper (spot/three - month) premium and discount, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread curve, etc. [30][31]

01 螺纹：短线交易 02 03 铁矿：震荡偏强 双焦：中性观望 目 录 黑色：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-11 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业中心】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 01 投资策略：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 p 主要观点 上周煤矿相关消息较多，部分矿山重启276工作日制度，双焦期货价格大幅上涨，不过原料未能带动钢价上行，螺 纹钢期、现货价格均窄幅震荡。基本面方面，根据钢联统计口径，最近一期螺纹钢表需环比增加7.38万吨，产量增加 10.12万吨，库存增加10.39万吨，需求淡季矛盾积累尚不明显，供需保持相对均衡，不过上周累库速度略有加快。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本、高于电炉谷电成本，静态估值中性；驱动方面，宏观端， 过度乐观预期有所降温，关注中美关税政策变化（8月12日是中美双方达成暂停关税协议的最后期限），产业端，现实 供需均衡，关注粗钢限产执行情况、焦煤复产进度，预计短期保持震荡格局。 p 交易策略 短线交易，RB2510关 ...