长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-09-22 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：供需博弈剧烈，预计区间震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：9月19日，l主力合约收盘于7169元/吨，PP主力合约收盘于6914元/吨，LP价差为255元/吨。LDPE均价为9593.33 元/吨，环比-0.07%，HDPE均价为7957.50元/吨，环比-0.00%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7576.47元/吨，环比- 0.07%。LLDPE华南基差收于407.47元/吨，环比-1.28%，9-1月差81元/吨（+6）。基差走缩，月差走阔。生意社聚丙烯现 货价报收7020元/吨（-0.73%）。PP基差收106元/吨（-88），基差走缩。9-1月差14元/吨（+140），月差走阔。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：中国聚乙烯生产开工率80.36%，较上周+2.32个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量63.10万吨，环比+2.97% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price fluctuated at a high level before the National Day. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, and domestic policies may be further strengthened. The recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance will support the copper price [2]. - The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area. Although the inventory continued to accumulate during the peak season, it was still recommended to go long at low prices, and a strategy of going long on AD and short on AL could be considered for aluminum alloy [2]. - The zinc price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the domestic zinc fundamentals lacking support, and it was recommended to trade with a short bias in the range [2]. - The lead price broke through and then moved sideways, and it was recommended to go long at low prices in the range [2]. - The nickel price was expected to decline in the short - term after the interest - rate cut and remain in a state of oversupply in the long - term. It was recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel was recommended for range trading [3]. - The tin price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the upward channel. Due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption, it was recommended for range trading [3]. - The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for short - term long trading or to wait and see. The polysilicon price was expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, and it was recommended to wait and see [3]. - The lithium carbonate price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for cautious trading [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **China's Economic Data**: From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.4% [11][13][14][15]. - **US Economic Data**: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000 [16][17][18]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price first rose and then fell this week. Domestically, the trading enthusiasm increased after the price center moved down, and it was expected to maintain a high - level shock before the National Day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply pressure is not obvious. Terminal consumption is still weak, and the inventory is stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The downstream demand entered the peak - season rhythm, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to increase [2]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price fluctuated weakly last week, and it was expected to continue the weak shock [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate was loose, and refined zinc production remained high. Terminal consumption was weak, and domestic zinc inventories reached a high for the year [2]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price showed a shock - rebound trend, breaking through and then moving sideways [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory decreased, and the replenishment demand of battery enterprises was strong, supporting the spot lead price [2]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price fluctuated and declined last week, and it was expected to decline in the short - term and remain oversupplied in the long - term [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The refined nickel market was in an oversupply situation, the growth of nickel - iron prices slowed down, and the stainless - steel market had limited demand boost [3]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price continued to fluctuate in the upward channel [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry was expected to continue to recover, with inventories at a medium level [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon changed in different directions, and the market risk was relatively large [3]. 3.9 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trend**: The carbonate lithium price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was affected by mine - related issues, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal was good, with battery factories increasing production [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term outlook for cotton: This year, new cotton is on the market. With current prices in the low - value range, cotton purchases are likely to be stable. Around the National Day, firm spot prices support seed cotton prices, preventing deep drops in futures. After mid - to late October, as new cotton supply increases and hedging pressure rises, futures may first open low, then rebound, and finally decline. The short - term fluctuation range of CF2601 futures price is 13,200 - 14,200. Whether it can exceed 14,200 in October depends on the post - National Day spot tightness. Long - term outlook: Due to potentially tight domestic supply - demand next year, balanced global supply - demand, the Fed's shift to a rate - cut cycle, and possible continuous domestic favorable policies, the market is expected to improve macroscopically, showing an upward oscillating trend in the long run [5]. - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets mainly oscillated downward. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September [7]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - and medium - term: New cotton purchase likely stable, futures supported by spot before National Day, may decline after mid - to late October. CF2601 short - term range 13,200 - 14,200. Long - term: Tight domestic supply - demand next year, global balance, possible favorable policies, long - term upward oscillation [5]. 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn oscillated downward. Pure - cotton yarn market trading was average, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses, market concerned about September orders [7]. 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton broke through support and trended down. Market focused on new cotton listing, with increased Xinjiang cotton production and yarn capacity, and tight spot market causing divergence. Cotton yarn market: Pure - cotton yarn trading was average, worse than previous years, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses [11]. 04 - International Macroeconomics - In the US, various economic indicators such as ISM manufacturing PMI, employment data, trade balance, inflation, and interest rates had different changes in September 2025. In the Eurozone, unemployment, CPI, PPI, GDP, and interest rates also showed specific trends [12]. 05 - Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, in September 2025, foreign exchange reserves increased, CPI and PPI had specific changes, M2 money supply remained stable, social financing scale and new RMB loans had significant differences from previous values, and indicators like fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment also changed [14]. 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports all increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the ending inventory decreased. Total supply increased slightly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio changed [16][17]. 08 - US Cotton Exports - From September 5 - 11, 2025, US net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton increased, while shipments decreased. Net signing of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. China's net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton was 998 tons, with no shipments [22]. 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of August, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased significantly compared to the previous month and last year. Industrial cotton inventory in textile enterprises decreased slightly. Total industrial and commercial inventories decreased year - on - year [23]. 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in July - In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased from the previous month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton yarn imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January - August and the 2024/25 season decreased compared to the previous year [28]. 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in August - In August, the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half. Spinning enterprises' profit margins improved, with reduced losses. August production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and cumulative production from January - August increased year - on - year [32]. 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of September 14, US cotton boll opening and harvesting rates were close to the average of recent years, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. Yield is expected to increase steadily [35]. 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of September 16, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, approaching the 5 - year average. Early - stage drought had limited impact, and the weekly good - to - excellent rate was good [39]. 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton was in the late boll - opening stage, with a high boll - opening rate. The second round of defoliant spraying was in progress, and some early - maturing varieties in northern Xinjiang had started picking [41]. 15 - Textile Industry Inventories - In July, textile industry inventories increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. Textile and garment inventories showed different trends in month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [42]. 16 - Domestic Demand - In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail总额 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles also increased [47]. 17 - External Demand - Exports - In July 2025, China's textile and garment exports decreased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. From January - July, exports increased year - on - year [50]. 18 - US Apparel Retail Sales in July - In July 2025, US apparel and clothing accessory retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In June, retailer inventories increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased [56]. 19 - US Cotton Product Imports in July - In July 2025, US cotton product imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Textile and garment imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. 20 - Warehouse Receipts - As of September 18, 2024/25 season warehouse receipts decreased compared to the previous week [61]. 21 - Non - Commercial Long Positions - As of September 9, ICE cotton futures non - commercial futures plus options net long positions decreased, as did non - commercial futures net long positions and commodity index fund net long positions [65]. 22 - Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the pure - cotton yarn mill load index remained flat, the rayon yarn load remained flat, and the polyester yarn load increased slightly [68]. 23 - Weaving Mill Load - The pure - cotton grey fabric load index, rayon fabric load index, and short - fiber fabric comprehensive load all increased [72]. 24 - Industrial Chain Inventories - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and pure - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased compared to the previous week. Improving demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season led to inventory decline, supporting prices [76]. 25 - Industrial Chain Profits - In the spot market, the pure - cotton yarn market was mediocre. Spinning enterprises wanted to maintain prices, and yarn prices declined slightly with Zhengzhou cotton. Profits improved slightly, with inland enterprises' C32S cash - flow losses around 300 yuan/ton [82]. 26 - Basis - This week, the basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The current basis is 1448 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. New cotton purchase prices are out, and the basis for pre - sold new cotton is relatively high and stable [83]. 27 - Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - This year, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. However, after October, with Xinjiang cotton harvest and possible large - scale arrival of Brazilian cotton in November - December, the situation may change. In the long run, domestic supply may be tight next year, so one should not blindly short domestic and long foreign cotton [86]. 28 - Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread is - 115 yuan/ton this week. Considering next year's supply - demand and macro - factors, the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. However, due to factors like warehouse receipt cancellation in November, the spread may fluctuate between - 80 and - 200 [91].

Group 1: Report Summary - The textile industry maintained stable overall operations in H1 2025, with high export and domestic demand, good cotton consumption, but weak profit growth and high business pressure. The overall performance of listed companies showed some resilience [1][3]. - The industry showed a stable revenue but faced significant profit pressure, with differences among sub - industries. Exports demonstrated resilience due to Sino - US trade disputes. Listed companies generally performed well, but individual stocks varied, and the sportswear industry led the market [25]. Group 2: H1 2025 Textile Industry Overall Operation Production Situation - The textile industry's capacity utilization was in a reasonable range. The industrial added - value of above - scale textile enterprises increased by 3.1% year - on - year (1.5 percentage points slower than the previous year). Most parts of the industrial chain had stable production. Some sub - industries had high growth rates, and 9 out of 15 major textile products saw output growth [4]. Consumption Market - Textile and clothing domestic sales had a mild recovery. Per capita clothing consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year (0.9 percentage points faster than Q1). The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles above the quota increased by 3.1% year - on - year (1.8 percentage points faster than the previous year). Online clothing sales increased by 1.4% year - on - year (1.5 percentage points higher than Q1). Consumption trends included a shift towards quality, personalization, and culture [5]. Foreign Trade Situation - Despite challenges, textile exports maintained a slight increase. Total textile and clothing exports were $143.98 billion, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. Textile exports were $70.52 billion, up 1.8% year - on - year, while clothing exports were $73.46 billion, down 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US declined, but those to other trading partners increased [10]. Benefit Situation - Textile enterprises faced increased operating pressure. The operating income of 38,000 above - scale textile enterprises decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 9.4% year - on - year. The operating income profit margin dropped to 3%. However, there were differences among sub - industries [12]. Group 3: Listed Company Performance H1 2025 Financial Report - In terms of revenue, the textile manufacturing and clothing home textile sectors had year - on - year growth rates of +7.8% and - 6.4% respectively. In terms of profit, the textile manufacturing sector had a stable gross profit margin of 19.4% and a net profit margin of 8.5%. The clothing home textile sector had a gross profit margin of 46.1% and a net profit margin of 8.5%. In terms of inventory, the textile manufacturing sector's inventory - to - sales ratio was about 3.9 months, and that of the clothing home textile sector dropped to about 6.7 months [17]. Q2 2025 - In terms of revenue, the textile manufacturing sector's growth rate slowed to 6.6% year - on - year, and the clothing home textile sector's decline narrowed to 4.6% year - on - year. In terms of profit, the textile manufacturing sector's gross profit margin was 19.4%, and the net profit margin was 9.5%. The clothing home textile sector's gross profit margin was 45.4%, and the net profit margin was 5.8%. In terms of inventory, the textile manufacturing sector's inventory - to - sales ratio increased to 4.1 months, and that of the clothing home textile sector decreased to 6.7 months [21]. Sector Companies - In the clothing home textile sector, the sportswear track was booming, with leading companies like Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Li Ning having good revenue and profit growth. Non - sportswear companies generally faced challenges. In the textile manufacturing sector, contract manufacturing enterprises had stable order growth, and cotton - spinning enterprises performed well [22][24].

长江期货贵金属周报 2025/9/22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 2110 2610 3110 3610 4110 202 4 -01-02 202 4 -02 -02 202 4 -03 -02 202 4 -04 -02 202 4 -05 -02 202 4 -06 -02 202 4 -07-02 202 4 -08 -02 202 4 -09-02 202 4 -10-02 202 4 -11-02 202 4 -12 -02 202 5 -01-02 202 5 -02 -02 202 5 -03 -02 202 5 -04 -02 202 5 -05 -02 202 5 -06 -02 202 5 -07-02 202 5 -08 -02 202 5 -09-02 ...

铜周报：降息落地铜价回调，基本面支撑仍强 2025-9-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 供给端：截至9月18日，铜精矿现货粗炼费为-41.4美元/吨，铜精矿现货粗炼费继续维持历史低位，矿冶矛盾持续。截至9月12日， 国内铜精矿港口库存57.4万吨，铜精矿港口库存低位小幅回升，但仍处于历年低位。8月我国电解铜产量117.15万吨，环比减少0.24%， 同比增加15.59%，国内精炼铜产量增速保持稳定，9月进入冶炼厂关停检修高峰，叠加政策端对阳极铜供给影响，电解铜产量预计减少。 p 需求端：下游消费暂无明显起色，临近国庆开工率小幅提升。截至9月18日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率上升至70.49%，环比 上升2.96个百分点，同比下降8.83个百分点。部分企业为规避月底集中备库造成的原料价格上涨风险，提前陆续为国庆假期生产备库。 周尾铜价下跌也使下游提货边际增强，提升上周开工水平。8月铜板带、铜管、铜箔开工率分别为65.87%、65.70%、78.44%。铜价 重心抬升使得下游制造企业采购意愿明显下降， ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: Supply improvement is expected, and prices are likely to run weakly. Although the cost provides support, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. [5][7] - **Oils and Fats**: Fundamental support remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The decline in palm oil inventory accumulation and the supply gap in rapeseed before November are expected to limit the downward adjustment range of oil prices. [78][79] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of September 19, the spot price in East China was 2,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The M2601 contract closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton week-on-week. The basis price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 01 - 90 yuan/ton. [7][9] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Price**: Spot and futures prices of soybean meal declined, while the basis price increased. The price difference between regions showed different trends. [13] - **Supply**: The USDA September supply and demand report adjusted the US soybean planting area, yield, and ending stocks. Brazil has started sowing, and the domestic supply is abundant. [7] - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. [7] - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3,030 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Global Supply and Demand**: Global soybean supply and demand are tightening, with production declining to 426 million tons and the production-consumption gap narrowing to 1.98 million tons. [15] - **US Soybean Inventory-to-Sales Ratio**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio has tightened to 6.89%. [25] - **Pressing and Export Demand**: As of the week of September 4, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 50.1059 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% compared to the same period last year. [26] - **Soybean Growth**: As of September 12, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and the harvest progress was 5%. [31] - **Brazilian Export Sales**: As of the latest data, Brazil's MT sales progress reached 91.94%, and the overall sales progress was good. [32] - **Weather Conditions**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas will be low, while precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean-producing areas will improve. [39] - **US Soybean Planting Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,135 cents/bushel. [44] - **Import and Purchase**: The domestic purchase of Brazilian vessels in the near term is progressing steadily and quickly, while the purchase of vessels in the far term is slow. The domestic soybean supply is abundant before November, but the supply may be insufficient after November. [58] - **Livestock Inventory**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the demand for soybean meal, and the bottom demand support for soybean meal is strengthened. [76] Oils and Fats 1. Market Review - As of the week of September 19, the palm oil 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 221 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton. [79] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 2.2 million tons, in line with market expectations. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][85] - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA September report adjusted the US soybean production and ending stocks, with a neutral to bearish impact. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the short term, but the supply may tighten after November. [79] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November, which supports the price of rapeseed oil. However, policy uncertainties and high inventory levels limit the room for price increases. [79] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report had a neutral impact. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][96] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons. The production in June rebounded strongly, but the demand was also strong, resulting in a continued decline in inventory. [105] - **Indian Oil Imports**: In August, India's total vegetable oil imports increased by 4.75% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons. The inventory as of the week of September 1 was 1.865 million tons, an increase of 8.68% month-on-month. [117] - **Malaysian High-Frequency Data**: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in September showed different trends, with the export volume increasing and the production volume decreasing. [119]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market may continue to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility should be watched out for. The style may become more balanced in the future, and a defensive allocation is recommended, focusing on opportunities in technology sector rotation, high - dividend, and cyclical sectors. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. - The "watch - the - stock - to - trade - bonds" principle dominates short - term trading, and the bond market is difficult to decline significantly before the stock market cools down [8]. Group 2: Stock Index Strategy Stock Index Trend Review - Last week, the A - share market showed a significant divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index representing large - cap blue - chips fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose. The weakness of financial and real - estate sectors dragged down the Shanghai - related indices, while the growth - style sectors provided support for relevant indices [6]. Technical Analysis - The market maintained a differentiated pattern last week. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong, while the SSE 50 was weak. After a ground - volume rebound on a certain day in August, there was a significant volume decline on Thursday, forming a divergence with the previous up - volume. The short - term profit - taking pressure was prominent [6]. Strategy Outlook - Reasonably control positions and pay attention to policies and sector rotation rhythms [6]. Group 3: Treasury Bond Strategy Treasury Bond Trend Review - The bond market oscillated last week. Although the central bank made a net injection, liquidity did not loosen significantly due to tax - period disturbances. Rumors of the central bank's bond - buying operation and the Fed's interest - rate cut provided some support [9]. Technical Analysis - The T - contract K - line oscillated upwards, with the MACD yellow and white lines intertwined, and the BOLL lines still opening downwards [9]. Strategy Outlook - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is recommended to reduce positions in a timely manner [9]. Group 4: Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Both supply and demand sides weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term factors such as export - expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors like the shrinking real - estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in a certain month dropped to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.8%. The decline was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering revenue, weak sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25]. Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28]. Import and Export - In a certain month, China's exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. The import and export performance was stronger than expected, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [31]. Group 5: Weekly Focus - The report lists a series of US economic indicators to be focused on, including the second - quarter core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditure, real GDP, and initial jobless claims [33].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply Recovery, Limited Demand Support [1] Core View - Urea prices fluctuated this week, with the futures price slightly down and the spot price also decreasing. The supply has increased as maintenance devices resumed operation, while agricultural demand is scattered. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers has slightly improved, but urea production and sales are still weak, and enterprise inventories have continued to accumulate. The port is exporting, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and the positive - spread trading opportunity of the 1 - 5 spread [3]. Market Changes - **Price**: On September 19, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,661 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.12%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 1.22% [3][6]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis weakened. On September 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from - 51 to - 35 yuan/ton [3][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan/ton, and the weekly range was from - 61 to - 48 yuan/ton [3][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 80.24%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output was 190,000 tons. Next week, some Shanxi manufacturers' devices are planned to stop or undergo maintenance, while the maintenance devices of Henan Xinlianxin are gradually resuming. It is expected that the spot supply will still increase, with the daily output ranging from 185,000 to 195,000 tons [10]. Cost - The anthracite market increased slightly. As of September 18, the含税 price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 10 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: National agricultural demand is scattered at this stage. Autumn harvest is underway in the Northwest, Jianghan, and Southwest regions. In Chongqing, the harvest of rice and corn is basically completed, and the soybean harvest is over 50%. In Sichuan, about 70% of the rice and 60% of the corn have been harvested. In Guizhou, about 40% of the autumn grain has been harvested. In Hubei, nearly 70% of the corn, nearly 60% of the soybeans, and nearly 20% of the single - cropping rice have been harvested [3][19]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 799,800 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved [3][19]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.76%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 27,480 tons. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation for nearly two months. Urea port inventory was 837,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week. There were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 156,200 tons [3][25]. Key Points of Attention - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]