期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望为宜 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 07 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望为宜 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月 ...

长江期货养殖产业月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-5 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 u 期现货：截至12月31日，全国生猪价格12.67元/公斤，较上月底上涨1.54元/公斤；河南生猪均价13.18元/公斤，较上月底上涨1.94元/公斤；主力由01移仓至03，03期货价格收 于11795元/吨，较上月底上涨545元/吨，涨幅4.84%；03合约基差1385元/吨，较上月底涨1395元/吨。12月猪价呈现先稳后涨态势，上旬供需双增令猪价窄幅波动，下旬随着二 育和疫情猪抛压释放，大猪存栏减少，肥标价差拉大，低位养殖端惜售和二育进场，以及腌腊、元旦备货和降温终端消费季节性增量，现货价格开始快速上涨；主力03在现货和 宏观情绪助推下大幅反弹，03贴水放大，基差走强。随着元旦备货结束，宰量下滑明显，节日期间现货滞涨回落。 u 供应端： 9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，仍在正常保有量3900万之上，目前自繁自养利润亏损3个月左右，平 ...

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-01-05 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：去库预期下，近强远弱格局延续 02 油脂：反弹受限，关注USDA报告及 棕油产销 目 录 豆粕：去库预期下，近强远弱格局延续 01 01 豆粕：去库预期下，近强远弱格局延续 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月31日，华东现货报价3050元/吨，月度上涨30元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2749元/吨，月度上涨96元/吨；基差报价05+300元/ 吨，基差下跌70元/吨。月度美豆价格走势偏弱，美豆销售压力及中国买船放缓下价格走势偏弱，成本线附近支撑后震荡。连盘价格受通关延迟 及去库预期影响，现货价格走势偏强，整体现货短期宽松逻辑不变，价格上方有限；M2605合约南美丰产预期下，价格走势偏弱，但近期地缘 政治风险加剧，底部支撑加强。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库 ...

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

螺纹：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-01-05 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 12月回顾：12月份，钢材价格先冲高—后回落—再反弹，基本持平11月底价格，原料端，双焦价格走弱、铁矿明显偏强，呈现出 铁矿>钢材>双焦格局。宏观方面，一系列重磅事件相继落地，美联储12月如期降息25个基点、日本央行加息25个基点，国内中央经济 工作会议在北京召开，整体预期较为平稳。产业方面，12月螺纹钢需求环比走弱，不过产量降幅更大，库存去化顺畅，目前库存已经 处于近年同期低位水平，铁水产量延续下滑趋势，但是铁矿现货、期货价格都十分坚挺，双焦现货价格大幅下跌，钢材成本中枢小幅 下移。另外值得注意的是，商务部、海关总署宣布自2026年1月1日起对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理。 1月展望：宏观方面，可能处于政策真空期，产业方面，1月钢厂有复产预期，而钢材需求仍会季节性走弱，螺纹钢将进入累库周 期，在铁水产量回升+钢厂冬储补库背景下，原料需求存在一定支撑，钢材出口新规的影响在1 ...

| | | 节前沪铜主力在宏观情绪与资金推动下，历史性突破10万元/吨大关，但随后冲高回落，周度均价环比大幅上涨。情绪驱动的急涨与现实的 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场疲弱并存，而资金博弈的加剧使得价格波动率骤增。年末，下游加工企业普遍进入停产检修期，高铜价更是严重抑制采购意愿，而冶 | | | | 炼厂因资金回笼压力加大发货，社会库存出现大幅累库，现货市场因此持续深度贴水，充分反映了现实需求的乏力。但铜精矿供应紧张趋 | | | | 势难以扭转，全球能源转型加速推进，AI基建与电网升级带来增量需求，远期供需短缺的强烈预期难以证伪，铜价中长期仍具上行空间。 | | 铜 | 冲高回落 | 整体来看，铜价短期已进入情绪主导的高波动、高不确定性阶段。虽然供应端叙事仍提供中长期支撑，但节前价格对利好的透支、现货的 | | | 上行趋势未变 | 深度贴水以及显著的库存累积，反映当前价格存在虚高成分，极大地限制了涨势的持续性，并累积了回调风险。国内冶炼厂多会在1月选择 | | | | 开门红安排，因此1月国内供应预期较为充足，因此下周库存累库趋势仍将延续，现货贴水回升压力仍存。不过，节日期间 ...

玻璃一月报 冷修环保炒作 短期偏强运行 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-5 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 投资策略：震荡偏强 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货走强，周线报收中阳线。月底多条产线冷修，叠加湖北环保整改和改气计划，供应端利好预期推 涨盘面。供给方面，上周3条产线停产，日熔量降低接近15万吨。沙河地区价格持续下移，期现商出货同样压低市场价格，区 域库存变化不大。华中库存继续小幅回升，迫使原片价格再次回落，当前价格已降至年内最低价。华东华南报价暂稳。需求方 面， 北方市场终端工程逐渐进入尾声，下游订单量情况减少。南方市场年末需求不及去年，中下游备货意愿差。整体大部分厂 商还是以收回款为主，对明年市场行情偏空。纯碱方面，供给端依然有巨大压力，需求端浮法厂有产能收缩预期，所以在盘面 估值已偏低的背景下，关注多玻璃空纯碱的机会。 后市展望：元旦节后仍有部分产线停产预期，外加春节前期现商稍加补库，拉动产销，盘面利好驱动依然存在。技术上看， 多方力量占优。综上，预计玻璃价格继续维持短期偏 ...

尿素2026年1月报： 预期支撑 近弱远强 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2026-01-05 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 目 录 01 尿素期现价格回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素需求分析 08 尿素后市行情展望 01 尿素期现价格回顾 资料来源：同花顺，卓创资讯，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素产能产量分析 p 12月尿素价格先弱后强，期货价格走弱带动主力基差走强，后期货价格向上修复，主力基差走弱。供应端开工负荷微 降，整体现货供应环比减少。复合肥、淡储有序跟进采购，农业刚需零售补单。厂家出货尚可，库存持续去库带动价 格成交重心上移。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2025/01 2025/02 2025/03 2025 ...