期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 股指关注两会预期，国债 关注供给压力 2026-02-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：四大股指均震荡运行，节前有所承压。 p 核心观点：中国商务部：敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施。美国海关称将从2月24日 起停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税。美民主党称将阻止任何延长关税企图，力推强制退款方案。欧 盟冻结对美欧贸易协议的批准程序，并警告称特朗普的新关税破坏双方贸易协定。美联储理事沃勒： CEO们称AI将致大量裁员，3月利率决议取决于2月劳动力数据。AI担忧加剧，贵金属走强，股指短期 或震荡运行，两会前或震荡偏强运行，可关注市场对两会预期的情绪。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏， ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 24 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位反弹 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹滚动偏空 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-24 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：地缘冲突加剧，预计偏强震荡 01 重点关注：下游需求情况、库存情况、委内瑞拉局势、伊朗局势、原油价格波动 1 市场变化：2月13日塑料主力合约收盘价6644元/吨，周环比-2.47%。LDPE均价为8700元/吨，环比-0.57%，HDPE均价为 7375元/吨，环比-0%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6930.56元/吨，环比-1.17%。LLDPE华南基差收于286.56元/吨，环 比-1.79%，5-9月差-65元/吨（-13）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6568元/吨，较上周末-123元/吨，环比-1.84%。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收6640元/吨（+0%）。PP基差收72元/吨（123），5-9月差-32元/吨（1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率87.30%，较上周+1.39个百分 ...

节后黑色观点综述 品种观点 ◆ 钢材 长假期间，唐山迁安普方坯价格持稳，报价 2900 元/吨。消息面上，美 国时间 2 月 20 日，最高法院裁定特朗普根据旨在应对国家紧急状态的法 律所推行的大规模关税无效，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上表示，将对全 球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期 150 天，以代替被判定违法的紧急关 税，随后在 21 日进一步将税率水平提高至 15%。此次被最高法院砍掉 的对华关税，一共两项，包括"10%对等关税"、"10%芬太尼关税"， 合计 20 个百分点，可以简单概括为先砍 20%再加 15%，我国输美商品 关税负担下降，不过特朗普同时发文强调"第 232 条和第 301 条征收的 关税将继续有效"，表明美国对钢铁、铝行业将依然保持较高的关税壁 垒。整体来看，短期关税降了，但关税博弈远没结束。就基本面而言， 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态 估值偏低；驱动方面，宏观端，短期国内处于政策真空期，预计海外关 税政策提振有限，节后重点关注钢材库存增幅，是否超预期累积，我们 估算节后钢材库存处于近年农历同期偏低水平，不过略高于去年同期， 另外关注节后需求恢复进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, such as "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock index futures, "range trading" for many commodities like copper, tin, etc. [1] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for different futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical events to form trading suggestions. [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Before the holiday, it may oscillate, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly with a defensive approach. Factors include US employment data, market expectations of interest rate cuts, and domestic policies on AI and central enterprise investment. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. The overall price level shows a mild recovery, but the bond market reacts little to price data. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply, so treasury bonds may oscillate. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although prices have increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and early shutdown of private coal mines. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is at a relatively low static valuation. In the short term, it may oscillate, and it is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday. [8] - **Glass**: Buy on dips. Although there are rumors in the industry and the glass price has upward pressure, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to oscillate upward. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are advised to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, and although there is a risk of a supply shortage, the inventory is increasing. [11] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weakening. [13] - **Nickel**: Oscillate. It is recommended to observe. Although the nickel price has risen due to news of quota cuts in Indonesia, the current market has fully priced in the information, and the fundamentals are weak. [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to oscillate. [16][17] - **Silver**: Range trading. The short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, the short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate. [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily observe. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. There may be support in the medium term if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves. [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. It rebounds due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [22] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market has both positive and negative factors, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate upward. [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is supported by compound fertilizer enterprises, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area is decreasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The downstream demand is weakening before the holiday, the supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. [25][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily observe. The supply is in a state of over - supply, but the cost support is strong, and it is recommended to leave the market temporarily. [27] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. [28] - **Apple**: Oscillate. The overall market in the production area is stable, and the trading volume of different grades of apples varies. [28] - **Red Dates**: Oscillate. The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2025 production season varies by region, and the raw material purchase adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Build a bottom through oscillation. Partially close short positions before the Spring Festival, and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there are also factors such as secondary fattening and frozen product storage that may support the price. [30] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the trading volume on the futures market decreases, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting, and hold positions lightly during the holiday. The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. [32] - **Corn**: The upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing up in the short term, and grain - holding entities can wait for the price to rebound and conduct hedging. The supply - demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose. [32][34] - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the support level of 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as the US - South American soybean situation and domestic demand. [34] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The fundamentals of the three major oils and fats are mixed, with different performances for each variety. [33][35][40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - **Glass**: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - **Apples**: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - **Oils and Fats**: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]