Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, short - term market needs to digest policy impact, expected to be mainly in shock consolidation with limited upward space. In the long run, the three cornerstones driving the market remain stable, and the policy combination aims to build a "slow - bull" market. The stock index may fluctuate, and short - term attention can be paid to trading volume changes, while mid - term focus on the improvement of fundamentals. [10] - For government bonds, risk preference has decreased, which is a marginal positive for bonds, but the supply of local bonds in late January has increased, and the imbalance between supply and demand at the long - end has not been effectively alleviated. Government bonds may fluctuate. [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the stock index showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.45%. [10] - Core view: Short - term market to digest policy, expected to be in shock, long - term "slow - bull" market possible. [10] - Technical analysis: MACD indicates the market index may fluctuate weakly. [10] - Strategy outlook: Range - bound shock. [10] Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.09%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [13] - Core view: Risk preference decline is positive for bonds, but supply is a concern. [13] - Technical analysis: MACD shows the T main contract may fluctuate strongly. [13] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation. [12] Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the boom - bust line after 8 months, significantly stronger than the seasonal average. [20] - The PMI of high - tech manufacturing industries rebounded significantly by 2.4 pct to 52.5%. [20] - Large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement, although the PMI of small enterprises declined slightly. [20] CPI - In November, CPI increased year - on - year and PPI was positive month - on - month, due to seasonal factors, low - base effect and "anti - involution". [23] - CPI has been fluctuating below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic demand. [23] - CPI is expected to continue to rise during the year - end and Spring Festival, and PPI may also rebound. [23] Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $330.35 billion, imports were $218.67 billion, and the trade surplus was $111.68 billion. [25] - Labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products drove the overall export in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01% respectively, with an increase in the driving rate compared to last month. [25] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America drove the year - on - year increase in exports in November, but exports in December may be under pressure. [26] Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service industry production index dropped to 4.2%. [27] - The reasons for the decline are the suppression of key industries by "anti - involution" and the high base established after policy implementation last year. [30] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the estimated fixed - asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from October. [33] - Private investment growth rate rebounded to - 12.9%, and public investment growth rate continued to decline to - 8.9%. [33] - Infrastructure and real estate investment growth rates are still at a low level, while manufacturing investment has a slight rebound. [33] Social Retail - In November, social retail sales decreased to 1.3% year - on - year, the weakest since 2023. [36] - The reasons for the decline are the weakening of durable goods consumption, the weak performance of "Double Eleven" sales, and the weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption. [36] Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. [39] - Bill financing continued, and the year - on - year increase of long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to decrease. [39] - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber remained at 6.3%. [39] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization. [39]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: US Copper Tariffs May Be Delayed, Bullish Sentiment Cools [1] Report Date - January 19, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's suspension of tariffs on key minerals, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar and the suppression of downstream market demand by high - priced copper, brings adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend of copper concentrate is difficult to reverse, and there is still a logic for copper price increase due to global energy transformation and incremental demand, the short - term support has significantly decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level. As of January 16, it closed at 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The shortage at the mine end was not substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate remained at a historical low. The strike at Chile's Mantoverde copper mine continued. Downstream demand was limited, and domestic inventory continued to accumulate. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in profit - taking sentiment, copper prices fluctuated at a high level [5]. 1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The shortage of copper concentrate continued. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream was under pressure at high copper prices, but the copper foil industry's operating rate increased. As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively [8]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase. As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [8]. 1.3 Strategy Suggestions - Trump's suspension of tariff hikes on key minerals, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the suppression of downstream demand by high - priced copper bring adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend at the mine end is difficult to reverse, and the logic for copper price increase still exists, the short - term support has decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's exports denominated in US dollars in December increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. In 2025, China's total goods trade volume exceeded 45 trillion yuan, and the trade surplus was expected to reach 1.2 trillion US dollars. - In 2025, China's social financing scale increased by more than 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. - The core CPI increase in the US in December was 2.6%, remaining at the lowest level in four years. - US retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. - The PPI in the US in November rebounded to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 0% month - on - month [13]. 2.2 Industry News Overview - In November 2025, copper production in Chile decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons. - Japan's Pan Pacific Copper raised the 2026 copper premium in Japan to a record 330 US dollars/ton. - Chile's copper exports in December were 146,401 tons, and the exports of copper ore and concentrates were 1,170,302 tons. - In 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 3.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. - In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 532,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. - Rio Tinto's Nuton project reached a copper supply agreement with Amazon's cloud computing service department [14]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As the delivery approached, the discount converged. The high price and limited supply of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable during the week, but the discount widened at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper spread weakened. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes on key minerals narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 16, the trading position of Shanghai copper futures was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 9.42%, and the average daily trading volume was 286,732.4 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.96%. As of January 9, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,769.24 lots, a week - on - week increase of 217.29%. As of January 13, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 63,391 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.11% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrate continued due to mine - end disruptions. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [31]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate increased for the eighth consecutive month [35]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [39].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - Polyolefins: The upward range is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range, paying attention to the support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6,500, with a focus on short - selling on rallies [8]. - Plastics: There are still supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - PP: There is significant upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic 3.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,695 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The average price of LDPE was 9,183.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%, the average price of HDPE was 7,262.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,004.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 309.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton (+74) [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes for different regions and varieties of plastics [19][20]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $59.22 per barrel, an increase of $0.44 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.20 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 per barrel from the previous week. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 531 yuan/ton, compared with 59 yuan/ton last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 217 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 81.59%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.98 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. This week's maintenance loss was 11.27 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have polyethylene production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 36.93%, a decrease of 0.96% from last week; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.15%, a decrease of 0.81% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 29.33%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, currently accounting for 28.1%, with a difference of 4.7% from the annual average level; the low - pressure film shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 4.3%, with a difference of 3.5% from the annual average level [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.43 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,627 lots, a decrease of 738 lots from last week [49]. PP 3.3 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [54]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: The report provides price information and price changes for various PP products and related products [56][58]. - **Basis**: On January 16, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,576.67 yuan/ton (+3.14%). The PP basis closed at 81 yuan/ton (+218), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 261 yuan/ton (-49) [60]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [69]. - **Cost**: The cost data is the same as that of plastics, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rising, and the anthracite price remaining unchanged [73]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 619.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102.91 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was - 418.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.62%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from last week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 77.58 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.69 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.62% [84]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [87]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 52.53% (-0.07). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.60% (-0.32%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.56% (+0.32%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.93% (-0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 33.87% (-0.11%) [89]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 251.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the export profit was - 38.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.82 US dollars/ton compared with last week [95]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 43.10 tons (-7.85%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 4.12% month - on - month; the trader's inventory decreased by 5.28% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 0.70% month - on - month [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,508 lots, an increase of 2,063 lots from last week [105].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies, strengthening watch on aluminum, suggesting watching or selling on rallies for nickel, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin, range trading for gold, bullish on silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][10][13][14][15][16][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Adopting a low - buying strategy for PVC, temporarily watching for caustic soda and soda ash, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, and expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][22][23][24][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust sideways, and apples and jujubes to trade weakly [1][26][28][29] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Adopting a short - selling strategy on near - term hog contracts on rallies and cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; being cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedging on rallies for grain holders; being bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts on dips and bearish on far - term contracts; expecting three major oils to trade sideways with rapeseed oil stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][30][33][35][37][38] Core Views - Geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics are the main factors affecting the futures market. For example, Trump's tariff policies, Fed's interest rate decisions, and changes in supply and demand of various commodities have significant impacts on prices [5][6][11][17] - Different commodities have different supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some commodities are affected by seasonal factors, while others are more influenced by policy and macroeconomic factors [8][9][19][22][31] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With market sentiment cooling and the central bank cutting policy tool rates, stock indices are expected to trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank cuts the structural monetary policy tool rate, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend. Government bonds are expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to reduced transportation, slow replenishment by traders, and weak demand, coking coal is suitable for short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: Currently, the futures price is at a neutral valuation. With weakening export expectations and short - term balanced supply and demand, rebar is expected to trade in a range, and investors can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8] - **Glass**: Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has increased. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and glass prices are expected to trade weakly. Investors can sell on rallies and focus on the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a short - term rise, copper prices face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and weak downstream demand. In the short term, copper is expected to trade at a high level, and investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Due to the weak reality of alumina surplus and strong fundamental pressure in January, aluminum prices face upward pressure. Investors are advised to strengthen watch [13] - **Nickel**: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas stimulates bullish sentiment, the fundamentals are weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade sideways, and investors are advised to watch [14][15] - **Tin**: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and downstream demand maintaining rigid procurement, tin prices are expected to trade sideways. Investors can conduct range trading or take profits on previous long positions [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical tensions and changes in the expectation of the Fed chairperson, silver and gold prices are bullish in the medium term. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is suitable for range trading [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and potential supply supplements, lithium carbonate prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors need to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering low valuation and potential policy and cost factors, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and investors can focus on positive calendar spreads [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Although there may be some support in the medium term, the rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to watch [21] - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, styrene's valuation is high. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and focus on cost and supply - demand changes in the medium to long term [21] - **Rubber**: Due to the seasonal inventory build - up, weak cost support, and high downstream production and sales pressure, rubber prices are expected to decline in the short term and trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: With increasing supply and relatively stable demand, urea prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors should focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, and export policies [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of inland supply and weak traditional downstream demand, and affected by geopolitical tensions and port arrivals, methanol prices are expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins are expected to trade weakly. Investors should focus on downstream demand, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus and rising production costs, soda ash prices may have limited downside space. Investors are advised to watch [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a recent rise, cotton prices are adjusting sideways. In the long term, the outlook is optimistic. Investors should be cautious in the short term [28] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the Spring Festival approaching, the trading of apples and jujubes is generally weak, and prices are expected to trade weakly [28][29] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short term, due to high supply pressure, the rebound of hog prices is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and investors should be cautiously bullish [30][31] - **Eggs**: With low basis and high valuation, short - term spot prices are expected to be strong. Investors can hedge post - holiday 02 and 03 contracts on rallies. In the medium and long term, supply pressure still exists [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, there is limited driving force for price increases, and investors should be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, although demand is gradually released, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which limits the upside space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be bullish on dips, while far - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies [37][38] - **Oils**: Three major oils are expected to open lower and trade weakly. Investors can focus on the strategy of narrowing the 05 spreads between rapeseed and palm oils and rapeseed and soybean oils [38][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to increase as maintenance devices have复产 plans and daily output is set to rise, but demand remains supported. With agricultural fertilizer procurement and increased raw - material replenishment in the compound fertilizer industry, and the inventory level of urea enterprises being low compared to the same period last year, the price of urea will fluctuate within the range of 1,730 - 1,830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of the week and declined slightly at the end. On January 16, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,791 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the Henan market averaged 1,744 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.81% increase [4][7]. - The basis of the main urea contract weakened first and then strengthened. On January 16, the main basis in the Henan market was - 47 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of (-86) - (-47) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly, at 28 yuan/ton on January 16, with a weekly range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of urea in China was 83.59%, down 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 54.18%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week. The daily output of urea was 20.07 tons. Some devices in Xinjiang, Shandong, Yunnan, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Sichuan and Xinjiang resumed production. Maintenance devices in Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan are planned to resume next week, indicating an expected increase in supply [4][13]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite coal was slightly stronger. As of January 15, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing - price center up 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [4][17]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 10.64%. The mainstream price of the urea market increased, leading to an increase in production profit [17]. - **Demand**: - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly sales - to - production ratio of urea enterprises was 98.8%. Agricultural demand was mainly for reserve procurement, and industrial demand was stable overall [18][19]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.08%, up 2.91 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 71.18 tons, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market was in the stage of concentrated winter - storage fertilizer sales, and raw - material inventory was replenished at appropriate prices [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 54.29%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 29,000 tons. Although a device of Shandong Heli Tai had a temporary short - stop maintenance and Hubei Huaqiang resumed production, the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises is expected to continue to increase next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, weakening the demand support for the panel market [27]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 84 tons, down 29,000 tons from the previous week and 69 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 27.2 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, totaling 267,100 tons, an increase of 4,280 receipts (85,600 tons) compared to the same period last year [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures weakened, with speculative sentiment cooling down. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle - stream has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 149,000 tons. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to the release of local speculative demand, and the inventory was further transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will take holidays, and the decline of visible inventory is expected to slow down, with overall production and sales gradually declining. Macro - policy expectations have cooled down, and the market lacks substantial upward momentum. Technically, the short - side still has the upper hand, and the price is at a critical position in the adjustment stage. It is expected that the glass price will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner, with the upper resistance level at 1130 - 1140 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures weakened last week. With the cooling of speculative sentiment, although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained stable, and the national factory inventory decreased due to speculative demand. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will rest, the decline of visible inventory will slow down, and production and sales will decline. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and there is no substantial upward momentum in the market. Technically, the short - side dominates, and the price is in a critical adjustment position. It is expected that the glass price will be weak and volatile, with the upper resistance at 1130 - 1140. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3]. - The operation strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. 3.2 Market Review: Spot Price Decline - As of January 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,060 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,190 yuan/ton in East China (+10). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,103 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous week [10][11]. 3.3 Market Review: Narrowing of Basis - As of January 16, the futures price of soda ash was 1,192 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,103 yuan/ton, with a spread of 89 yuan/ton (+5). Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 43 yuan/ton (+41), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (-12) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit: Continuous Loss - For the natural gas - making process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (+11). For the coal - gas - making process, the cost was 1,169 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 149 yuan/ton (+1). For the petroleum - coke - making process, the cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+1) [21]. 3.5 Supply: No Change - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 149,535 tons/day (unchanged), with 212 production lines in operation [23]. 3.6 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of January 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample production factories nationwide was 5,301.3 million weight boxes (-250.5). Among them, the inventory in North China was 837.1 million weight boxes (-95.9), in Central China was 588 million weight boxes (-68.5), in East China was 1,118.8 million weight boxes (-23.7), in South China was 658.8 million weight boxes (+26), in Southwest China was 1,097 million weight boxes (-49.8), the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight boxes (-56), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 386 million weight boxes (-73) [28]. 3.7 Deep - processing: Decrease in Order Days - On January 15, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 103% (-42%). On January 16, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (unchanged). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [30]. 3.8 Demand: Decline in Year - end Automobile Production and Sales - In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. In December, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [38]. 3.9 Demand: Year - on - Year Decline in Real Estate Data - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); and the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From January 4 to January 11, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.33 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [43]. 3.10 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Weak Performance in the Futures Market - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,235 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), 1,250 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,425 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,192 yuan/ton (-36). The basis of soda ash 05 contract in Central China was 58 yuan/ton (+36) [45][47]. 3.11 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Deterioration of Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 44 yuan/ton (-4). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production was 1,330 yuan/ton (+17), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (-38); the cost of the combined - soda process was 1,734 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-4) [52][53]. 3.12 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons), including 413,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons) and 361,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons). The loss was 117,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 20,600 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,221 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,699). As of January 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons) [59][63]. 3.13 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Average Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116,200 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro-finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black building materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell on rallies [1][7]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; aluminum suggests enhanced observation; nickel suggests observation or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be relatively strong; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][18]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples are expected to be slightly strong sideways; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs suggest waiting to sell on rallies for hedging; corn suggests being cautious about chasing highs in the short term and selling on rallies for hedging; soymeal is recommended to be bullish on dips in the near - term contracts and bearish on rallies in the far - term contracts; oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][29]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1]. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by factors such as Fed officials' statements, employment data, and China's monetary policy, the market sentiment has cooled, and index futures are expected to trade sideways. It is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate cut of structural monetary policy tools, the bond market showed a deep "V" trend. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black building materials - **Coking coal**: With a slowdown in replenishment and cautious purchasing, and an accumulation of port inventories, the market is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. It is suitable for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in the range between valley - electricity cost and flat - electricity cost of the electric furnace. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the export is expected to weaken. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention can be paid to the positive cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern has not changed. The inventory problem will still be prominent, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: In the short term, the upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation still exists. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift in the range. It is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, and the policy is uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. It is recommended to enhance observation [12]. - **Nickel**: Although there is a reduction in nickel ore quotas, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and recovering downstream consumption, it is expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to build positions on dips [14]. - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cuts, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is for range trading [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: With supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17][18]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, it has a low valuation. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and attention can be paid to policies and cost - end disturbances [18]. - **Caustic soda**: With large supply pressure and weak demand, it is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, the valuation is high. It is for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: In a state of long - short balance, it is for range trading. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21]. - **Urea**: With an increase in supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22]. - **Methanol**: With a recovery in supply and a weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be weak in the inland market and strong in some areas. It is for range trading [24]. - **Polyolefins**: With a loose supply and a weakening demand in the traditional off - season, the price is expected to be weakly volatile [24][25]. - **Soda ash**: With an over - supply situation and rising costs, it is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the price has adjusted after a previous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26][27]. - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, with different trading situations in different regions. It is expected to be slightly strong sideways [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is showing signs of a bottom - rebound [28]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. It is suitable to sell on rallies for hedging [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to be strong seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to wait to sell on rallies for hedging [32][33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [34][35][36]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term near - term contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37][38]. - **Oils**: The three major oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [38][43].