长江期货尿素周报： 日产提升 基差走弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2026-01-26 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：日产提升 基差走弱 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素盘面价格先弱后强。1月23日尿素2605合约收盘价1788元/吨，较上周下调3元/吨，跌幅 0.17%，期间最高1797元/吨，最低1756元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1727元/吨，较上周下调17元/吨，跌幅 0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差走弱，1月23日河南市场主力基差-61元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-61）— （-41）元/ 吨。价差：尿素5-9价差窄幅波动，1月23日 5-9 价差25元/吨，周度运行区间 25 — 29 元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率85.99%，较上周提升2.4个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率58%，较上 周提升3.82个百分点，尿素日均产量20.34万吨。云南、四川、河南部分检修装置复产，日产量增至20万吨以上，货 源供应充足，下周四川地区检修装置计划恢复， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或轻仓滚动持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易或前期多单止盈 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 前期多单逢高离场观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易或前期多单止盈 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; Rebar suggests range trading; Glass suggests selling on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests closing long positions on rallies and waiting; Aluminum suggests strengthening observation; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing; Tin suggests range trading or taking profits on previous long positions; Gold suggests range trading; Silver is expected to be relatively strong; Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC suggests a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting; Styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; Apples and jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest waiting for rallies to short; Eggs suggest not shorting in the short - term; Corn suggests caution when chasing highs and waiting for rallies to hedge; Soybean meal suggests shorting on rallies; Oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile [1] Core Views The report provides trading guidance for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the current situation, future trends, and trading strategies for each product [1] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the long - term, they are bullish. Due to reduced geopolitical disturbances, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. There is a relay from trading to allocation, with yields on the long - end falling more [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade in a range. Due to weak fundamentals and high inventory pressure, short - term trading is recommended [6][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. With neutral valuation and short - term supply - demand balance, range trading is the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. With inventory transfer to the middle - stream and weakening demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to fall after rising. With short - term support weakening and inventory increasing, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. With supply increasing and demand entering the off - season, it is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. With a mixed fundamental situation and full market pricing, it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. With tight supply and stable demand, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions is recommended [16] - **Silver**: It is expected to be relatively strong. Due to geopolitical tensions and economic data trends, it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious when opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: It is expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, range trading is recommended and chasing highs should be cautious [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply and demand factors in balance, price volatility is expected to continue [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation and potential policy support, a long - term low - buying strategy is recommended [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. With high valuation and uncertain cost - supply - demand improvement, range trading is recommended [21][22] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply reduction and inventory increase, and no obvious driving force, range trading is recommended [22][23] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply increasing and demand stable, it is recommended to trade within a range of 1730 - 1830 [24][25] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, and some regions being strong, range trading is recommended [25] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With cost support and inventory transfer, the upside is limited, and shorting on rallies is recommended [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. With supply contraction and cost support, the downside may be limited [28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. With production reduction and consumption increase, short - term caution and long - term optimism are recommended [29] - **Apples**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With slow sales in the main production areas and price fluctuations [29] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are expected to form a bottom in a range. With high supply pressure in the short - term and slow capacity reduction in the long - term, shorting on rallies and hedging on profits are recommended [31][33] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. With low - level spot price increase and uncertain long - term supply, shorting should be cautious and hedging on rallies can be considered [33][34] - **Corn**: It is expected to correct from a high level. With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term supply being relatively loose, caution when chasing highs and hedging on rallies are recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With short - term support and long - term pressure, shorting on rallies is recommended [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. With different supply - demand situations for different varieties, short - term caution when chasing highs and spread trading are recommended [38][43]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Exit long positions on rallies and wait and see [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][13] - Nickel: Wait and see [1][14] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][20] - Caustic soda: Temporarily wait and see [1][21] - Soda ash: Temporarily wait and see [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][25] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [1][26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [1][28] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term rebound, roll short opportunities [1][32] - Eggs: Not advisable to short in the short term [1][35] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, wait for rebounds to hedge [1][37] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [1][39] - Oils: Weakly range - bound [1][40] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply - demand relations, cost changes, geopolitical situations, and policy impacts [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Although the external environment is deteriorating and may put pressure on the index, it is still optimistic in the long - term, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Yields of various maturities declined yesterday, with the long - end declining more. The market shows a situation where trading positions are passing on to allocation positions, and treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Although supply may be tightened, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are weakly running. The valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: Speculative sentiment has cooled. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle reaches has increased. Demand may decline before the Spring Festival, and prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have risen first and then fallen, and are in a high - level range. Although the long - term supply - demand shortage is expected, short - term support has decreased. Investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite are under pressure to decline. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but demand is entering the off - season. The market may continue to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and investors are advised to wait and see [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound. Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions is recommended [15][16] - Gold and silver: Geopolitical tensions have increased, and the US economic data is weak. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver have moved up. Gold is suitable for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][18] - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are both in a state of change. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have emerged. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation is low, and there may be structural opportunities in the long - term. Range trading is recommended [20] - Caustic soda: Demand is difficult to support, and supply pressure is large. There is short - term delivery pressure, and investors are advised to wait and see [21] - Soda ash: Supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. The downward space of the market may be limited, and investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and wait and see [28] - Styrene: The previous rebound was fast, but the current valuation is high. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [22] - Rubber: The bottom support of natural rubber is weakening, and the seasonal inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. The market may be weakly range - bound in the short - term [22] - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand is relatively stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area has recovered, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins remains high, but the traditional terminal demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong, and range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, but the upward space of prices is limited. PE and PP are expected to be weakly range - bound, and short on rallies is the main strategy [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply has decreased, and demand has increased. Although there is a high - level correction in the short - term, the long - term expectation is optimistic [28] - Apples: The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is not fast. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [29][30] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market transactions in Hebei and Guangdong are okay. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors. In the long - term, the price may be affected by capacity reduction. Short on rallies is recommended for off - season contracts, and be cautious about bullishness for far - month contracts [32][34] - Eggs: The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the pressure of new production is not large. In the long - term, the capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [35][37] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs and wait for rebounds to hedge [37][38][39] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is supported by cost, and the far - month price is under pressure. Bearish on rallies is the main strategy [39] - Oils: The short - term trends of different oils are differentiated. Rapeseed oil is weakly range - bound, and the rebounds of soybean oil and palm oil are limited. Attention can be paid to the narrowing strategy of the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [40][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China plans to lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, which is expected to restart the procurement of Canadian rapeseed and ease the domestic rapeseed supply in the future. However, the details of the tax reduction have not been finalized, and the short - term supply of domestic rapeseed oil remains tight, limiting the decline of futures prices [4][10]. - If the tax reduction is implemented, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, which will stimulate domestic traders to increase purchases. The annual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month. It has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish [2][10]. Summary by Related Content Trade Agreement - From January 14 - 17, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Carney led a delegation to visit China. After the visit, Carney said that China and Canada had reached a preliminary agreement to mutually lower tariffs on key commodities. China will lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, and Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese - made electric vehicles to enter its market at a 6.1% tax rate [1][4]. Impact on Import Profit - In 2025, China's import control on Canadian rapeseed products tightened. After August 14, importers had to pay a 75.8% deposit to the customs, resulting in a serious deterioration of import profit. On January 19, 2026, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment was as high as 7,835 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 2,992 yuan/ton. If calculated at a 15% import tax, the import cost would drop to 4,698 yuan/ton, and the import profit would soar to 145 yuan/ton [5]. Past Import Situation - In normal years, Canadian rapeseed products account for about 90% of China's total rapeseed imports. In 2025, due to anti - dumping measures, China's import volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased significantly. From January to November 2025, China imported 2.45 million tons of rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%), including 2.33 million tons of Canadian rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%). By the week of January 16, 2026, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was only 60,000 tons of Australian rapeseed, a year - on - year decrease of 89%. The coastal + East China rapeseed oil inventory was 276,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43% [6]. Future Supply - Demand Forecast - If the tax reduction is implemented, China is expected to import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in 2026, and the actual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. If oil mills start to buy Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment now, it will arrive in China as early as April. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. Market Outlook and Focus - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month, which has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish. The follow - up should focus on the implementation time and specific form of the tax reduction, the result of the final review of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed on March 9, and the procurement progress of domestic Canadian rapeseed after the tax reduction [2][10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies; strengthening observation on aluminum; observing nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish sideways for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Buying on dips for PVC; temporary observation for caustic soda and soda ash; range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; bearish sideways for polyolefins [1][20][22][23][28][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; bearish sideways for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - term selling on rallies for near - term hog contracts, cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; short - term cautious about chasing high for corn, hedging on rallies for grain holders; bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts, bearish on far - term contracts; bearish sideways for fats and oils [1][33][37][39][41] Core Views - Global geopolitical events, such as Trump's tariff policies and military threat to Iran, along with changes in Fed chairmanship expectations, impact market sentiment and asset prices [5][12][13][17][19] - Central bank policies, like interest rate adjustments, influence the performance of stocks, bonds, and other financial products [5][6] - Supply and demand fundamentals, including production, inventory, and consumption, are the main factors determining the price trends of various commodities [8][9][11][12][14][15][17][19][22][23][26][27][35][36][38][39][40][41][43][44][46] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Affected by geopolitical events and central bank policies, expected to trade sideways in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate adjustment, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend, expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to weak demand and high inventory, prices are under pressure, suggesting short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: With neutral valuation and short - term balanced supply and demand, it is expected to trade sideways in the short - term, with range trading as the main strategy [8] - **Glass**: With weak demand and increasing mid - stream inventory, it is expected to trade bearishly sideways, suggesting selling on rallies [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting exiting long positions on rallies [11][12][13] - **Aluminum**: With stable supply and weakening demand, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation [14] - **Nickel**: Affected by Indonesian policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting observation [15] - **Tin**: With tight supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [16][17] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and Fed policies, they are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias, suggesting holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold [17][19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply - demand balance and cost factors, it is expected to trade range - bound [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With low valuation and potential policy support, the bottom may have been reached, suggesting buying on dips [20][22] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, it is expected to trade sideways at a low level, suggesting temporary observation [23] - **Soda Ash**: With supply - demand imbalance and cost support, it is suggested to temporarily exit and observe [30] - **Styrene, Rubber, Urea, and Methanol**: All expected to trade sideways, with range trading as the main strategy [22][24][26][27] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening demand and cost support, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a long - term uptrend, they are expected to adjust sideways in the short - term, with a bullish long - term outlook [30] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales in the market, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [31][32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With high supply pressure in the short - term and potential capacity reduction in the long - term, short - term selling on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness on far - term contracts are suggested [33][36] - **Eggs**: With high valuation in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term, hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies is suggested [37][39] - **Corn**: With balanced short - term supply and demand and a looser long - term supply - demand pattern, short - term caution about chasing high and hedging on rallies for grain holders are suggested [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a bearish long - term outlook and a relatively tight near - term supply - demand situation, different trading strategies for near - term and far - term contracts are suggested [41] - **Fats and Oils**: Expected to open lower and trade bearishly sideways, suggesting observing the narrowing spread strategies for rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean 05 contracts [41][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 710 tons to 24,510 tons week - on - week, and December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production. Enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in November was about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cost of some lithium carbonate manufacturers using imported lithium ore is inverted. [5][6] - Demand side: The overall production schedule in January is expected to decline month - on - month, while that of large battery cell manufacturers increased by 2% in November. In December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The combined export was 32.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%. The sales volume was 199.3GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.1% and a year - on - year increase of 57.5%. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new - energy vehicle market. [6] - Inventory: This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight accumulation. Factory inventory decreased by 476 tons, market inventory decreased by 1,593 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,098 tons. [6] - Strategy: Supply is affected by mine production and imports, and demand is strong but may decline in January. There is a risk of Yichun mining license, and cost is rising. It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply, and prices will continue to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views - **Supply**: Production decreased last week but increased in December. Mines in some areas are affected, and imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate have different trends. The cost of some manufacturers is under pressure. [5] - **Demand**: Production schedules vary in different months. Battery output, export, and sales are growing, and policies support new - energy vehicle sales. [6] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory with different changes in factory, market, and futures inventories. [6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering supply, demand, and cost factors, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun mining end disturbances. [6] 3.2. Key Data Tracking - **Price Data**: There are data on the spot price of lithium carbonate, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the average price of lithium concentrate. [8][16][18] - **Production Data**: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, the production of different raw - material - based lithium carbonate in December 2024, the production of power and other batteries, and the production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [9][11][20][21] - **Inventory Data**: There are data on the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including factory inventory. [13][16] - **Import Data**: There are data on the import volume of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium spodumene. [5][35][38] - **Other Data**: There are data on the difference between domestic power - battery output and installed capacity, and the prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [23][37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have intensified due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed, causing precious metal prices to remain strong. The Fed held its December FOMC meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve management - style balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. With the expected change in Hassett's appointment, the market anticipates fewer rate cuts this year. US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, geopolitical tensions have risen, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed. Gold prices have shown a strong - side oscillation. As of last Friday, COMEX gold closed at $4,601 per ounce, up 1.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,650, and the lower support level is $4,500 [6]. - Silver: Due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot, silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 12.7%, closing at $90 per ounce. The lower support level is $87, and the upper resistance level is $95 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices will continue to be strong. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and started balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation is weakening, and the expected change in Hassett's appointment has led to a decrease in the expected number of rate cuts this year. US economic data is deteriorating, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain. Silver spot is in short supply, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data on Thursday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Economic data: The US December CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value; the US November PPI annual rate was 3%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.7%; the US November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 was 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million and the previous value of 2.08 million [23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Kansas City Fed President Schmid opposed rate cuts, stating that inflation is "overheating" and that Trump's policies will boost economic momentum, putting upward pressure on prices. He saw little reason for further rate cuts and emphasized the Fed's independence. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, possibly due to challenges in seasonal adjustment. The number decreased by 9,000 to 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million. - President Trump hesitated to nominate Kevin Hassett as the Fed Chair, hoping he would continue as a White House advisor, increasing the uncertainty of finding the next Fed Chair [24]. 3.5 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,474.74 kg to 1,123,953 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,400 kg to 100,053 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 329,201.37 kg to 13,348,267.37 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [13]. 3.6 Fund Holdings - As of January 13, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,463 contracts, an increase of 16,720 contracts from last week. - The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 30,625 contracts, an increase of 2,093 contracts from last week [13]. 3.7 This Week's Focus - On Thursday, January 22, at 23:00, the US November PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On Friday, January 23, at 22:45, the preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI will be released [35].