Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump signed a new tariff executive order effective August 1, maintaining the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10%. The US core PCE price index in June reached a 4 - month high of 2.8% year - on - year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation forecasts. The State Council passed relevant AI - related opinions and implemented loan interest subsidy policies. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, the stock index may fluctuate in late August during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment has not deteriorated significantly. With policy focus on consumption, market mechanisms, and capital market stability in the second half of the year, the rising market risk appetite may restrict the bond market. Some investors are reducing positions, and there are still differences in the market outlook [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [3]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: On July 31, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 1.77%, 1.44%, 1.38%, and 0.88% respectively [5][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 31, 2025, the 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.57%, and 0.01% respectively [6][7]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are expected to fluctuate, and double - coking coal is also expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, and gold are expected to trade in ranges or be neutral, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies [11][13][18][20]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash's 09 contract is recommended for light - short attempts [22][24][26][28][31][33][35]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner, while apples and jujubes are expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [36][37][38]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short on rallies, corn and soybean meal are expected to trade in ranges, and oils are at high - level with an increased risk of correction [40][42][43][45][47]. Core Views - The global economic and policy environment is complex, with factors such as trade policies, inflation, and central bank policies affecting various commodity markets. For example, Trump's new tariff executive order, changes in the US inflation index, and central bank policies in the US and Japan all impact the market [6]. - Different commodity markets have their own supply - demand characteristics. For instance, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, while PVC has a weak supply - demand situation overall due to factors like export uncertainties and production capacity pressure [8][23]. - Market sentiment and macro - policies also play important roles. The "anti - involution" sentiment and government policies on consumption, investment, and industry all affect market expectations and commodity prices [6][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff order, US inflation data, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to fluctuate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the mid - August earnings report disclosure period [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a phased rebound, the bond market may be restricted by the improved market risk - appetite and policy focus on consumption, market competition, and capital market stability, and is expected to weaken [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After a sharp decline on Thursday, considering factors like the end of Sino - US talks, changes in market expectations, and the relatively balanced supply - demand in the industry, it is expected to enter a fluctuating pattern, with suggestions for waiting and watching or short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: With the market starting to trade the expectation of military parade production cuts after the end - of - month meeting, and considering factors such as supply and demand and the support from the steel and coal markets, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coking coal market has a supply - demand pattern of "continuous supply disturbances and cautious demand waiting - and - watching", and the coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern with an expectation of a fifth - round price increase, but both are expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as the US copper import tariff policy, changes in domestic and foreign supply - demand, and the uncertainty of tariffs, the copper price is expected to enter a range - trading situation again [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors like changes in the price of bauxite, the increase in alumina production capacity, and the weakening of downstream demand, the aluminum price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [13]. - **Nickel**: In the medium - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation with limited consumption growth, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with a suggestion to short on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of the tin ore supply - demand gap and the recovery of the semiconductor industry, the tin price is expected to be supported and trade in a range [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by trade negotiation results, US economic data, and tariff policy expectations, precious metals are expected to trade in ranges with support at lower levels [20][21]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Although the inventory is slightly lower than last year, the sustainability of exports is questionable, and the upstream production capacity pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a focus on the 4950 - 5150 range for the 09 contract [23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Currently, the supply is high, and the demand is in a weak season, but there is support from the peak - season demand in the long term. It is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 2500 - 2600 range for the 09 contract [25]. - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 7200 - 7500 range [27]. - **Rubber**: With cost support and general downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 15000 pressure level [29]. - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected to be neutral, with a price trend of first weakening and then strengthening [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the impact of overall industrial product prices [33]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - sentiment and cost factors, and with weak downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to correct in the short term, with a focus on specific price ranges for different contracts [35]. - **Soda Ash**: After the positive feedback, the soda ash price is over - estimated, and the 09 contract is recommended for light - short attempts [35]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton production and consumption are both increasing, and with the expected good production in Xinjiang and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [36]. - **Apples**: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, the apple price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [37]. - **Jujubes**: Considering the growth situation in the production area and the market situation in the sales area, the jujube futures price is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market in the short term [39]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the pig price is supported by farmers' resistance to selling and secondary fattening, but in the long term, the supply is increasing. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [40][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the egg price is driven by seasonal factors but is restricted by supply. In the long term, the supply situation is complex. Different contracts have corresponding trading suggestions [42]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to trade in a range, with an opportunity for a 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage [43][44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is affected by factors such as good weather and sufficient supply, and in the long term, there are potential supply shortages. Different contracts have corresponding trading strategies [45][46]. - **Oils**: The short - term risk of high - level correction is increasing, but the correction range is limited. There are suggestions for position - taking and arbitrage [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver are expected to trade within a range or be observed [1][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; short - term short positions are recommended for soda ash's 09 contract [1][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short - sold on rallies; corn and soybean meal are expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][41]. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures varieties based on global economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Factors such as trade frictions, economic data releases, and policy changes have significant impacts on futures prices. Each variety has its own unique supply - demand situation and influencing factors, resulting in different price trends and investment suggestions [6][9][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With various international trade policies, economic data, and domestic policy factors, the index futures are expected to fluctuate. The dense disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August may lead to minor fluctuations [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market risk appetite has significantly increased, which may still restrict the bond market. Although there was a phased rebound on Wednesday, it is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the Politburo meeting, the over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to enter a short - term fluctuating pattern [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Although there are expectations of production cuts for the military parade, the high profit of domestic finished products and export situation support the iron ore price. It is expected to adjust and fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has supply disturbances and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and there is still an expectation of a fifth price increase [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by trade policies and seasonal factors, the copper price is expected to enter a range - bound trading situation [12]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as changes in bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and weakening downstream demand, the aluminum price is recommended to be observed [14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: With the decline in market risk aversion, the precious metal prices are weakly fluctuating, but there is support at the bottom, and range - bound trading is recommended [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven expectations, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand growth is slowing down, and it is expected to fluctuate. There may be opportunities to go long on dips for the far - month 10 contract [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited positive factors, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. It is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Rubber**: Supported by cost and with the end of the price correction, it is expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [31]. - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is gradually increasing, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to decline in the short term [35]. - **Soda Ash**: After the positive feedback, the price is over - estimated, and short - term short positions are recommended for the 09 contract [36]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption, and a relatively tight spot market, the price is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [38]. - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and strong in a fluctuating market [39]. - **Jujubes**: With good second - and third - crop flower fruit - setting and strong demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [41]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price increase is limited due to supply and demand factors. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease. Short - selling on rallies is recommended for the 09 contract, and long - buying on dips is recommended for the 12 and 01 contracts [43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and range - bound trading is recommended. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious when going long; in the medium and long term, long positions can be established on dips [46]. - **Oils**: Supported by various factors, short - term long positions are recommended for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, and attention can be paid to the spread rebound strategy of soybean oil and palm oil's 09 contracts [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]

Group 1: Core Views - Core view of stock index: Sino-US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm. The two sides will continue to promote the 90-day extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs of the US and China's countermeasures. The Political Bureau's economic work conference will be held today. Margin trading reaches a high level, while the fund holding ratio decreases and the trends diverge. Coupled with the intensive disclosure period of the semi-annual reports in late August, there may be small fluctuations. The stock index may fluctuate [1] - Core view of treasury bond: From the recent trend, the bond market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". The short-term focus of the market still lies in the subsequent trends of the commodity and equity markets. Recently, attention should be paid to whether important meetings bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to digest the pressure of this round of cost increase, it may not be appropriate to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - Strategy recommendation for stock index: Fluctuate [2] - Strategy recommendation for treasury bond: Fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index market review: The futures of the main contracts of CSI 300 Index rose 0.54%, the futures of the main contracts of SSE 50 Index rose 0.39%, the futures of the main contracts of CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the futures of the main contracts of CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% [5] - Treasury bond market review: The 10-year main contract fell 0.25%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.16%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.81%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5] - Treasury bond technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6] Group 5: Futures Data - Futures data on July 29, 2025: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures are provided in the table [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Defensive wait-and-see for stock indices, take profit for treasury bonds [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Temporarily wait-and-see for rebar, oscillate for iron ore and coking coal and coke [1][6] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Range trading or wait-and-see for copper, wait-and-see for aluminum, suggest wait-and-see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][11] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Oscillate for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wide-range oscillation for polyolefins; short lightly for soda ash [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate and adjust for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillate strongly for apples and jujubes [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide-range oscillation for corn; oscillate strongly for soybean meal and oils [1][38] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures varieties based on current market conditions, including macro events, supply and demand fundamentals, and policy expectations [1][6] - It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to key events such as the Sino-US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the impact of these events on the market [6][11] - For each variety, it analyzes the supply and demand situation, cost factors, and market sentiment to predict the future price trend and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Due to the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Politburo meeting, combined with the high margin trading and the decline in fund holding ratio, the stock indices may oscillate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports in late August [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday and the central bank's capital injection improved market sentiment, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks." Attention should be paid to whether the important meeting will bring incremental demand-side policies. If demand improves, the bond market may not be overly optimistic [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The market is trading on the expectation of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the short term, it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern, and investors can wait and see or conduct short-term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price oscillated strongly. Affected by the macro sentiment, the impact on iron ore is relatively small. The supply is expected to increase in the long term, but the current high profit of steel products and the expectation of the meeting support the price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is tight locally, and the import is improving. The demand for coke is strong, and the supply and demand structure is tight. The price of coking coal is expected to oscillate, and the price of coke may continue to rise [9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US copper import tariff policy and the change in domestic demand, the copper price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, but the supply of imported ore may increase in the third quarter. The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum and short on rallies for alumina [12][13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in excess in the medium and long term, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton [14][15] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin is stable, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 245,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Sino-US trade talks and the Fed's interest rate decision, the market's risk aversion sentiment has decreased, but there are still concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to conduct range trading carefully, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 757 - 805 and the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8,700 - 9,500 [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 5,150 - 5,350 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The spot price is stable and weak, and the near-month contract is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 2,500 - 2,700 [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The macro environment is favorable, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,600 [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, providing cost support. The downstream demand is general, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the focus on the pressure level of 15,000 [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises increases, and the industrial demand is stable. The inventory pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level of 1,700 - 1,730 and the pressure level of 1,820 - 1,850 [31] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory decreases, and the price may face a certain correction [32][33] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro sentiment and cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The L2509 contract can focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,500, and the PP2509 contract can focus on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 [34] - **Soda Ash**: After the market sentiment cools down, the futures price of soda ash has fallen back. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the price is overestimated. It is recommended to short lightly [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase, and the ending inventory will also increase. The Xinjiang cotton production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is light. The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [36] - **Apples**: The spot market is stable, the inventory of old-season apples is low, and the early-maturing apples are in stable demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the high range [36] - **Jujubes**: The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the growth period, and the second and third crops of flowers have a good fruit set. The supply in the sales area is low, and the price of high-quality products is strong. It is expected that the spot price will be stable and strong in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the resistance from the breeding side and the entry of secondary fattening limit the decline. In the medium and long term, the supply will gradually increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near-month contracts, and consider the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short-term supply pressure is weakened by the decline in egg production rate, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the large supply in the medium and long term restricts the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The short-term supply and demand game intensifies, and the spot price has limited upward and downward space. The medium and long-term supply and demand are tightened, but the supply from substitutes limits the increase. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally in the short term, with the range of 2,250 - 2,350, and consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the good weather in the US soybean producing areas and the abundant supply in China suppress the price. In the long term, there is a potential supply gap, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the M2509 contract and go long on dips for the M2511 and M2601 contracts [44][45] - **Oils**: The short-term market sentiment is bearish, but the supply and demand of Indonesian palm oil are balanced, and the demand from China and India still exists. The short-term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil can focus on the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,900 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 respectively [45][51]

Group 1: Core Views - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation in Q3 exceeds $1 trillion, an 82% increase, and debt issuance accelerates after the debt ceiling is raised; the auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds is unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. China-US economic and trade talks begin in Stockholm, Sweden. China introduces a child-raising subsidy policy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend, deepen reforms to stimulate the vitality of the multi-level market, and strengthen the foundation from both the asset and capital sides. Against the backdrop of a significant drop in anti-involution-related futures, the CSRC's call for strengthening the foundation, and high technical indicators, market sentiment may cool down, but with continuous hot topics in the sector, the slow bull trend of stock indices remains unchanged, and stock indices may fluctuate. Short-term defensive waiting is advisable [1]. - Attention should be paid to whether important meetings will bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to absorb the pressure of the current cost increase, it may still be unwise to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, consider defensive waiting [2]. - For treasury bonds, expect a weakening trend with fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.16%, those of SSE 50 rose 0.36%, those of CSI 500 rose 0.09%, and those of CSI 1000 fell 0.04% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.56%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.04% [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction [6]. Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7]. Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,122.00 | 0.16 | 54,638 | 156,735 | | 2025-07-28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,805.80 | 0.36 | 28,883 | 60,762 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,222.00 | 0.09 | 46,353 | 108,139 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,602.00 | -0.04 | 116,079 | 180,433 | | 2025-07-28 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.40 | 0.18 | 78,985 | 187,839 | | 2025-07-28 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.72 | 0.13 | 71,923 | 148,362 | | 2025-07-28 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.78 | 0.56 | 120,609 | 120,283 | | 2025-07-28 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | 0.04 | 43,197 | 101,434 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index**: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - **Aluminum**: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Nickel**: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Rubber**: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - **Jujubes**: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]