1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [2][91] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures strengthened last week, with the weekly line closing as a medium阳线. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. Considering the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant, so the glass price is expected to maintain a short - term bullish trend [2][91] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review: Rebound in the Market and Narrowing of the Basis - **Futures Price**: The glass 05 contract closed at 1,087 yuan/ton last week, up 39 yuan from the previous week. As of December 31, the spot prices of 5mm float glass were 1,000 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,170 yuan/ton (-10) in East China [13] - **Price Difference**: As of December 31, the soda ash - glass price difference was 122 yuan/ton (-14). The basis of the glass 05 contract was -67 yuan/ton (-59) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was -138 yuan/ton (-31) [14][18] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Decline in Daily Melting and Deterioration of Profits - **Profit**: The spot price of glass decreased, leading to a deterioration in gross profit. The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1,572 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -402 yuan/ton (-9); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1,164 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of -164 yuan/ton (-22); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1,090 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -30 yuan/ton (+1) [22] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 151,055 tons/day (-3,050). Currently, there are 218 production lines in operation, and 4 lines were cold - repaired last week [24] - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 56.866 million weight boxes (-1.757 million). The inventory in North China was 10.146 million weight boxes (-0.716 million), in Central China was 6.75 million weight boxes (-0.295 million), in East China was 11.47 million weight boxes (-0.253 million), in South China was 7.246 million weight boxes (-0.459 million), in Southwest China was 11.7 million weight boxes (-0.207 million), the warehouse inventory in Shahe was 1.15 million weight boxes (-0.61 million), and in Hubei was 4.53 million weight boxes (-0.52 million) [28][33] - **Production and Sales**: On December 31, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 108% (+10%). On December 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (-0.8%). In mid - December, the number of available days for glass deep - processing orders was 9.7 days (-0.4) [34] - **Automobile Demand**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.173 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.095 million; sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.107 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.113 million. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [44] - **Real Estate Demand**: In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From December 22 to 28, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.44 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The real estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [49] - **Import and Export**: In November, China imported 310,900 weight boxes of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 27%) and exported 1.69 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 47%) [51] - **Soda Ash - Cost Side**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash were 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. The soda ash 05 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of soda ash in Central China 05 was 91 yuan/ton (-25) last Friday. The ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of -57 yuan/ton (+9); the co - production process cost was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit of -21 yuan/ton (+21). As of December 31, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.4083 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 26,900 tons) and 732,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 3,300 tons). The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash last week was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [58][60][79][88] 3. Investment Strategy: Short - Term Speculation, Oscillating with a Bullish Bias - **Main Logic**: The glass futures strengthened last week. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. The supply decreased as 3 production lines shut down last week, with the daily melting volume decreasing by nearly 150,000 tons. The demand in the northern market decreased as terminal projects were coming to an end, and the end - of - year demand in the southern market was lower than last year, with poor restocking willingness among middle - and lower - stream enterprises. Most manufacturers focused on collecting payments and were bearish on the market next year. Given the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant [2][91] - **Operation Strategy**: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [2][91]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].

市场抢跑预期，资金推动铝价 2026-1-5 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 行情回顾 宏观与基本面分析 目 录 铝价走势展望 01 0 2 0 3 0 4 01 行情回顾 01 沪铝行情回顾 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 2 0 2 5/12/3 0 2 0 2 5/12/2 3 2 0 2 5/12/16 2 0 2 5/12/0 9 2 0 2 5/12/0 2 2 0 2 5/11/2 5 2 0 2 5/11/18 2 0 2 5/11/11 2 0 2 5/11/0 4 2 0 2 5/10/2 8 2 0 2 5/10/21 2 0 2 5/10/14 2 0 2 5/0 9/2 9 2 0 2 5/0 9/2 2 2 0 2 5/0 9/15 2 0 2 5/0 9/0 8 2 0 2 5/0 9/01 2 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upside and a weakening oscillation. In December, constrained by continuous supply and weak demand, polyolefin prices repeatedly sought the bottom. Although the downstream demand for PP increased and the BOPP operation rate rebounded, the decline in the PP main contract futures price was smaller than that of PE. Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela during the holiday, the crude oil price on the cost side may be affected. In Q1 2026, the production of polyolefins will slow down, and the expectation of supply reduction will drive the price of polyolefins to rebound. However, overall, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upside space is still expected to be limited. It is expected that the PE main contract will oscillate weakly within a range, with attention to the support at 6400, and the PP main contract will oscillate weakly, with attention to the support at 6300. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to oscillate. The prices of various types of plastics, such as LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, have decreased to varying degrees. The LLDPE South China basis and the 1 - 5 month spread have also changed. The cost of plastics is affected by factors such as the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PE has different trends. The supply side shows a decrease in the production start - up rate and weekly output of polyethylene, while the demand side shows a decline in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film [8][11][22]. - PP is under great trend pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The price of the PP main contract has decreased, and the prices of related products have also changed. The cost of PP is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PP has decreased. The supply side shows a decrease in the start - up rate of PP petrochemical enterprises and the weekly output of PP pellets, while the demand side shows different trends in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes [52][58][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6472 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%. The average price of LDPE was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67%; the average price of HDPE was 6862.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6518.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.30%. The LLDPE South China basis was 46.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 88.40%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 202 yuan/ton (- 134) [11]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 31, 2025, was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134 yuan/ton compared to November 28, 2025; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; and the 9 - 1 month spread was 239 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different plastics in various regions have different trends and fluctuations. For example, in the Northeast region, the price of HDPE film remained unchanged, while in the North China region, the price of some types of plastics decreased [19]. - **Cost**: In December, WTI crude oil was reported at 57.41 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous month, and Brent crude oil was reported at 60.91 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (- 50) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 331 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [28]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons compared to the previous week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have production plans for 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 38.95%, a decrease of 10.09% compared to the end of the previous month; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 48.41%, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the end of the previous month; and the start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.17%, a decrease of 1.66% compared to the end of the previous month [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.2%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1%. The difference between the current proportion of low - pressure drawing and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1% [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,353 lots, a decrease of 193 lots compared to the end of the previous month [48]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [52]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP - related products such as PP pellets, PP powder, and PE have different trends. For example, the price of PP pellets (T30S) remained unchanged on January 4, 2026, while the price of PE (7042) increased by 50 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basis**: On December 31st, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6170 yuan/ton (- 3.04%). The PP basis was - 178 yuan/ton (- 132), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [58]. - **Cost**: Similar to plastics, the cost is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil [67]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.23 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month [75]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 1.27 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.88% [78]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [82]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of downstream industries was 53.24% (- 0.33). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.36%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+ 0.64%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.35% (- 0.51%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.74% (- 2.44%) [84]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the PP import profit was - 330.70 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.74 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month, and the export profit was - 3.74 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.57 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month [88]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 49.07 tons (- 7.99%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 8.04% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.34% month - on - month; and the port inventory decreased by 3.49% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1004.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.42 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [90][94]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, a decrease of 421 lots compared to the end of the previous month [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction. The follow - up trend needs to closely monitor the change in trading volume. If the trading volume remains at the current relatively high level, the index is still expected to continue to expand upward after fully digesting floating chips; otherwise, if the volume significantly shrinks, short - term correction risk should be vigilant. The bond market sentiment has been frustrated, and the future sustainability of the rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large, and it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy [9][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Stock index trend review: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points. For the whole year, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 18.41% [9] - Core view: The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months and significantly higher than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December has strong certainty at the structural level but faces uncertainty at the aggregate level. The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [9] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate [9] - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9] Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03% [11] - Core view: The composite PMI, manufacturing PMI, and non - manufacturing PMI are all above the boom - bust line of 50, and the bond market sentiment has been frustrated. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations, and its future sustainability remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large. Whether it is the remaining fiscal resources at the end of the year or the room for monetary easing, it indicates that it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw, whether the central bank's scale of treasury bond trading will further expand, and the implementation rhythm of monetary policies after the new year [11] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation [11] Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months [18] - It was significantly stronger than the seasonal trend. In previous Decembers, the manufacturing PMI decreased by an average of 0.3 pct compared with November, while it increased by 0.9 pct this month [18] - The PMI of high - tech manufacturing industries rebounded significantly by 2.4 pct to 52.5%, indicating a good growth trend in the industry [18] - Large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement. Although the PMI of small enterprises declined, large and medium - sized enterprises' PMIs both rebounded significantly [18] CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase in CPI strengthened, and the month - on - month PPI remained positive, which was the result of the combined effects of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution" [21] - It is worth noting that the year - on - year CPI has fluctuated below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and the year - on - year PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating that domestic demand is still relatively weak [21] - At the end of the year and during the Spring Festival, driven by seasonal effects and rising gold prices, the year - on - year CPI is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [21] - Since November 2024, the year - on - year base of PPI has entered a downward range again. Affected by low - base effects and the orderly progress of "anti - involution", the year - on - year PPI is also expected to rebound [21] Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $330.35 billion, imports were $218.67 billion, and the trade surplus was $111.68 billion [23] - In terms of representative export commodities, labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products drove the overall export in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01% respectively, with the driving rates increasing by 1.03 pp, 5.06 pp, and 1.55 pp respectively compared with the previous month [23] - The strengthening of exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America drove the year - on - year increase in exports this month, showing a relatively strong performance. Since November 9th, the year - on - year growth rates of global and US imports and China's container bookings to the US have continued to decline week by week, indicating a high probability of pressure on exports in December [24] Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service industry production index dropped to 4.2%. The production - end data has declined for two consecutive months [25] - There are two reasons for the weakening of industrial added value. First, "anti - involution" has begun to suppress the output of key industries. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the automobile industry dropped by 4.9 pct to 11.9%, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the steel industry dropped by 0.5 pct to 0.9%, and the chemical industry dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.7%. In terms of microscopic output, the year - on - year output of automobiles, ethylene, and steel also weakened. Second, after the policy took effect on September 24th last year, the production increase established a relatively high base. From the perspective of the two - year compound growth rate, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in November was basically the same as that in October [28] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped by 2.6%. It is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in November was - 11.1%, a slight increase compared with October [31] - By type, the year - on - year growth rate of private investment rebounded to - 12.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of public investment continued to drop to - 8.9% [31] - By expenditure direction, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rates of construction and installation projects/equipment and tool purchases in November dropped to - 16.1% and 6.3% respectively, and the year - on - year growth rate of other expenses rebounded slightly to - 13.8% [31] - By the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and real estate investment are still declining at a low level, but manufacturing investment has a slight rebound [31] Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 1.3%, lower than market expectations and the weakest since 2023 [34] - There are three factors for the weakening of social retail sales in November. First, after the weakening of national subsidy funds, the weakening of durable - goods consumption is the main drag. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption dropped to - 10%, and among them, automobiles and home appliances cumulatively dragged down the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in that month by 1.2 pct. Second, the overall weak performance of the "Double Eleven" sales also dragged down the social retail sales for the whole month. In November, the online retail sales of physical goods dropped by 3.3 pct to 1.5%, and the two - year compound year - on - year growth rate turned negative for the first time this year. Third, the consumption in the post - real - estate cycle continued to be weak. Restricted by the long - term weak real - estate sales, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales of building materials and furniture both dropped and turned negative [34] Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags [37] - Bills continued to boost the volume, and the year - on - year increase in medium - and long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to be less than the previous year [37] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained flat at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber remained flat at 6.3% [37] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined. Attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization in the future [37]

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be moderately bullish [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish [1][17][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples are expected to be moderately bullish; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest short - term shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs suggest hedging on rallies for 02 contracts; corn suggests cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal suggests bullishness on dips for near - term contracts and bearishness for far - term contracts; oils suggest limited rebound and cautious chasing of highs [1][29][31] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the supply and demand, cost, policy and other factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis results. The market trends of different products are affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic policies, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [5][10][29] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The market mainline rotates rapidly, and the index may trade sideways. The follow - up trend depends on trading volume. If the volume remains high, the index may continue to rise; otherwise, it may face short - term correction risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous driving factors are fading, institutions are more cautious at the end of the year, and the market lacks significant driving factors. The market may continue to trade sideways before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. Short - term trading should be based on range - right - side trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price oscillates. In terms of valuation, it is neutral; in terms of driving factors, there is no incremental policy in the short term, and the steel export is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it is suitable for range trading [7] - **Glass**: At the end of the month, multiple production lines are expected to shut down, and the supply is expected to decrease, which may push up the price. Although the medium - long - term supply - demand is deteriorating, there are short - term speculation opportunities around New Year's Day. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but the current price is over - inflated, and the upward momentum is limited. It is expected to trade in a wide range at a high level. Pay attention to changes in spot discounts and inventory accumulation speed [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, but policy expectations are uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. Although the short - term price may be bullish, the upside space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to continue to trade in a moderately bullish range. Pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [15] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by liquidity and are expected to trade in a range. The central price in the medium term has moved up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to be supplemented by South American imports, and the demand is strong but the downstream production may decline. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level. Pay attention to macro data, policies, exports, inventory and upstream start - up rates [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation suppresses the price. The near - term contract may reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival, and the far - term contract's upward trend needs to be verified by supply contraction [19] - **Styrene**: The short - term rebound is due to factors such as rising oil prices, but the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the medium - long term [20][21] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, the cost support may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue to trade sideways [21] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the compound fertilizer demand is supporting. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a range [22] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. Both the mainland and ports are accumulating inventory [23] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient. The upward space is limited. It is expected to be weakly bullish, and pay attention to the support levels [23][24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong after supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and see [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are adjusted downward in the 2025/26 season, and the ending inventory increases slightly. The price is expected to be moderately bullish due to stable consumption and policy expectations [26] - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price rebounds due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress the upward space. The far - term price is cautiously bullish due to capacity reduction, but the industry cost is decreasing [29][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The medium - term supply pressure may be alleviated by large - scale culling, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. The medium - long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to trade in a range, be bullish on dips for near - term contracts and bearish for far - term contracts [34][35] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and gradually close long positions. The medium - long - term fundamentals have certain positive factors [35][41]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...