Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is advised to wait and see; iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to go long after a pullback; nickel is advised to wait and see or go short at high prices; tin and precious metals are for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are expected to fluctuate, with PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol in a fluctuating state; polyolefins in wide - range fluctuations; and the 09 contract of soda ash maintaining a short position [1][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and adjust; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short at high prices; corn is for range trading; soybean meal has limited upside; and oils are at high - level with increased risk of a callback [1][39]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various futures products in different industries. It considers multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and international trade situations to predict the future price trends of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade issues, Fed policy expectations, and domestic market conditions, A - share new account openings increased in July, and the market may fluctuate slightly during the mid - report disclosure period in late August. Index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on bond interest income, the short - term impact on the bond market is limited. With overseas data weakening and possible mediocre July social financing data, the bond market has some positive factors, but the basis for a sharp rise is lacking. 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate in a small range around 1.70 [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the adjustment of relevant statements in the Politburo meeting, the market's over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating strongly. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decrease in hot metal demand, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has regional differentiation, and demand is relatively stable. Coke supply is affected by cost and profit, and demand is affected by steel mills and traders. Both markets are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant influencing factors [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and international trade policies, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Technically, there is support at the 77600 level [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on bauxite supply and the expected resumption of a large - scale mine, the upward space of ore prices is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [13]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with limited consumption growth. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season of demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the supply resumption and downstream demand [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US employment data, trade negotiations, and Fed policy, precious metals are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export sustainability, PVC is expected to fluctuate shortly, with the 09 contract focusing on the 4950 - 5150 range [23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is showing a slowdown in growth, and the market lacks substantial positive factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2400 - 2600 range, and there may be opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract on dips [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamental positives are limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. The price is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range [27][28]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 14000. Although there is a short - term rebound expectation, the overall situation is not optimistic [29][30]. - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1680 - 1820 range [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is slightly increasing, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product price [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of increased PE demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: In the initial stage of a negative feedback cycle, with large delivery pressure on the 09 contract, it is recommended to maintain a short position [35][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are increasing, and the Xinjiang output is expected to be good. The downstream consumption is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [36]. - **Apples**: The spot market is weak, the new fruit growth is normal, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Jujubes**: In the growth period of jujube trees, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to new developments in the production area [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts and secondary fattening, but the long - term supply is increasing. Different contracts have different trends, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39][41]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the supply pressure is large. The 09 contract is recommended to go short at high prices, and the 12 and 01 contracts can be considered to go long on dips [41][43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to range between 2250 - 2350. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there may be a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips for some contracts [46]. - **Oils**: The short - term risk of a high - level callback is increasing, but the callback range is limited. It is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [47][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of urea is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties, urea prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [47] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Market Review - In July, the urea market was initially strong due to expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The futures price of urea fluctuated upward, reaching a maximum of 1828 yuan/ton. Then, market sentiment cooled, and the price dropped. On August 1st, the 09 - contract of urea closed at 1709 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton lower than at the beginning of the previous month. The spot price also rose first and then fell, with the Henan market price at 1760 yuan/ton, close to the level at the beginning of the previous month [6] - The basis of the main urea contract (Henan) fluctuated narrowly in July, weakened as the futures price soared, and then strengthened as the futures price declined at the end of the month, with an operating range of 3 - 76 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 price difference of urea showed a weakening trend, with the closing price difference on July 31st at - 22 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton smaller than at the beginning of the month [9][13] 2. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - In July, urea production device maintenance increased, and the operating rate first decreased and then increased. The natural - gas - based urea operating rate also showed the same trend. Some enterprises such as Xinjiang Xinji Energy have production capacity commissioning plans. The daily average output of urea in July was still higher than the historical value, and the monthly output was estimated to be 608.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.6 tons [16][20] 3. Urea Cost - Profit Analysis - In July, the market price of anthracite stopped falling and rose. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 8.94%, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 percentage points. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of gas - based urea was - 7.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98 percentage points [24] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - From January to June 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 3593 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 425 tons. In July, the production - sales ratio of urea was between 95.3% - 96.6%. The national grain sown area increased in 2024, and with the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for fertilizers for summer crops such as corn and rice was released [26][29] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In July, the operating rate of compound fertilizer increased continuously from the bottom, and the estimated monthly output was 328 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34 tons. The average operating rate of melamine enterprises in July was 61.37%, and it is expected to remain above 60% in August [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to June 2025, the total export of fertilizers in China was 1712.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 452 tons. The export volume of urea was 7.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons [39] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of July, the enterprise inventory of urea was 75.7 tons, a decrease of 11.6 tons from the beginning of the month. The port inventory was 52 tons, close to the export peak level in September 2023. The registered warehouse receipts were 3373, equivalent to 6.746 tons of urea [41][44] 8. Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Urea production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, and the supply is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, with the daily average output at 20 - 21 tons. Demand: Agricultural demand is scattered after the concentrated fertilization period; industrial demand from compound fertilizers is increasing, and other industrial demands fluctuate slightly; export demand is expected to be concentrated from July to August. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current market, with the easing of overseas risk factors, the A - share market may continue to rise in the shock center in August. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut and tariff negotiation disturbances. If external risks ease and the semi - annual report performance verification exceeds expectations, technology growth (AI, robots) and high - dividend (banks, power) sectors may become the main lines of capital switching. IH is for configuration, and IM is for offensive [2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - **CPI**: In a certain month, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to a 0.1% increase. The food item decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, showing a situation of "rising industrial products and stable service growth" [7] - **PPI**: The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.6% in a certain month. Externally, the year - on - year price of exported goods increased by 0.5%, ending a two - year decline. Domestically, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment slowed down to - 11.2%, and the price of production materials was flat month - on - month. Necessities such as clothing and daily necessities showed signs of stabilization [11] - **Export**: In a certain month, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year (in US dollars), with the growth rate further increasing compared to the previous month. There were two trends in structural characteristics: the "rush to export" effect continued to strengthen, and the export to free - trade agreement partners mainly in ASEAN reached a growth rate of 16.92%; the Sino - US tariff agreement was implemented, and the export of some commodities continued to recover [16] - **Consumption and Real Estate**: In a certain month, the growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 4.8%, still showing robustness. The decline was mainly affected by the drop in catering revenue, the pre - placement of shopping festivals, and the post - holiday consumption decline. The real estate market remained sluggish, and key indicators such as investment and sales grew weakly [19] - **Manufacturing**: In a certain month, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. Sub - indicators showed structural differentiation: the production index returned to the expansion range, the new export orders increased slightly but were still below the boom - bust line; the raw material inventory index increased slightly for several consecutive months, indicating a marginal increase in enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory. In terms of prices, the gap between the purchase price index and the ex - factory price index remained the same, indicating that the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remained [22] - **Policy**: The central bank continued the "dual - track" regulatory thinking in a certain month, maintaining the historical low of the 1 - year LPR and guiding commercial banks to lower the upper limit of deposit interest rates. The fiscal policy continued the orientation of "increasing intensity and efficiency", with the tax revenue decline narrowing and the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure exceeding 70%. Multiple policies were introduced to stimulate domestic demand and deepen capital market reform [26] 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Market**: In a certain month, A - shares generally rose. At the end of the month, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a certain point, up by a certain percentage compared to the end of the previous month. The ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 Index had particularly prominent increases. The technology growth and cycle sectors continued to attract funds, and the large - consumption industry chain maintained a stable performance [31] - **Industry Performance**: As of a certain date in a certain month, among the Shenwan primary industries, most industries rose, with the steel industry leading with an 18.3% increase, followed by building materials and pharmaceutical biology. There were also several industries with an increase of more than 5%, showing the diversity of market hotspots [32] - **Market Style**: In a certain month, A - share market styles, scales, and performance sectors showed differential increases. In terms of style, except for the consumption style index, other styles rose, with the financial style index leading with an 8.92% increase. In terms of scale, large, medium, and small - cap indexes all rose, with the mid - cap index standing out. In terms of performance, loss - making stocks, micro - profit stocks, and high - performance stocks all rose, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [35] - **Liquidity**: From a certain period in a certain month, the average daily trading volume of the A - share market reached a certain amount, a certain percentage increase compared to the previous month. The newly established equity - biased fund shares decreased compared to the previous month but still remained at a high level, indicating strong support from incremental funds [42] - **Market Sentiment**: As of a certain date in a certain month, the average monthly turnover rate of major indexes continued to rise. The turnover rate of the STAR 50 Index increased by more than a certain percentage month - on - month, and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly a certain percentage. At the end of the month, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the margin trading buying amount also increased significantly [45][49] 3.3 Private - Fund Strategies - **Basis Analysis**: In a certain month, the basis of small - and medium - cap indexes showed significant phased characteristics. In the first half of the month, the basis fluctuated within a narrow range, and in the second half, as the market style switched to large - cap blue - chips, the basis widened rapidly. Near the end of the month, the basis narrowed slightly [53] - **Performance Review of Private - Fund Sub - Strategies**: In a certain month, among private - fund strategies, the macro strategy and the stock long - only strategy had single - month returns of a certain percentage and a certain percentage respectively. From the beginning of the year to the end of a certain month, the stock market neutral strategy led with a certain percentage of cumulative return, followed by the macro strategy [56] - **Index - Enhancement Strategy**: In a certain month, the excess returns of the CSI 300 index - enhancement, CSI 500 index - enhancement, and CSI 1000 index - enhancement showed a relatively differentiated structure. From the beginning of the year to June, the cumulative excess returns of the three reached a certain percentage, a certain percentage, and a certain percentage respectively, with the small - and medium - cap index - enhancement strategies leading [59] - **Neutral Strategy**: In the first half of the year, the market turnover rate and trading volume first increased and then decreased, remaining at a high level. Volatility increased briefly in a certain month due to tariff events but decreased compared to the second half of last year. The average annualized basis of IC and IM put pressure on the neutral strategy, but the strong performance of small - cap stocks still drove the strategy to achieve outstanding results [63] 3.4后市展望 - In a certain month, the A - share market is expected to maintain a dynamic balance between value and growth. High - dividend assets such as coal and banks still have defensive advantages, while the technology growth sector is waiting for two key catalysts: the Fed's interest - rate cut and the continuous easing of Sino - US tariffs. If these two variables are realized in the second half of the month, the market style may turn to growth; otherwise, the dumbbell strategy will continue [66]

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Maintains a weak reality, expected to fluctuate within a range. The 2509 contract of plastic is expected to trade within the short - term range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. PP - Faces significant trend pressure, short - term oscillation is weak. The PP2509 is expected to trade within the range of 6900 - 7200 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7317 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last month, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. LDPE average price was 9516.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% month - on - month; HDPE average price was 7975 yuan/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7508.24 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. The LLDPE South China basis was 191.24 yuan/ton, down 29.37% month - on - month, and the 6 - 9 month spread was 111 yuan/ton (+81). The basis shrank and the month spread widened [5][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PE was - 490 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PE was 1195 yuan/ton, down 358 yuan/ton from last month. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will run weakly and the profit of coal - based PE will run strongly [5][18][23]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 81.09%, up 4.65 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 63.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.32%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.14 tons, down 2.21 tons from last week [5][26]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 12.63%, up 0.28% from last month; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.70%, down 0.74% from last month; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.67%, down 0.34% from last month [5][30]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.17 tons at the end of this month, up 9.70 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month increase of 20.87% [5][35]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PE market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. There was new production capacity put into operation in July, and the production capacity will continue to increase in the second half of the year, so the supply pressure remains high. The maintenance loss this month remained at a high level but showed an obvious decline. The operating rate of downstream agricultural film is expected to increase due to the approaching peak season of plastic film. The operating rates of protective film and pipes remain stable. The low - level social inventory provides some support to the market [5]. PP Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7098 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from last month. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 7290 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [6][43][48]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PP was - 473.06 yuan/ton, down 14.35 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PP was 684.71 yuan/ton, down 347.77 yuan/ton from last month [6][56][60]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.94%, down 0.50 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39% [6][64]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 48.40% (+0.03). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-2.00), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 55.80% (+0.22%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.17% (-0.30%) [6][70]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 56.48 tons (-2.72%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 5.44% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.14% month - on - month [6][75]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PP market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. Although there were intensive maintenance activities in July, they were not enough to relieve the supply pressure. The operating rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving fluctuated slightly, and the demand remained weak. It is expected that the PP market will be mainly driven by fundamentals, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6].

长江期货双焦八月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-4 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 目 录 01 煤焦投资策略 02 焦煤数据跟踪 03 焦炭数据跟踪 01 煤焦投资策略 01 煤焦投资策略 p 主要逻辑 焦煤：供应方面，能源局超产检查持续推进，部分前期超产煤矿因政策约束减产，叠加井下生产条件限制等因素，部分矿井产量恢复节奏偏缓；此外，内 蒙乌海地区环保管控趋严，露天矿复产难度较大，区域内肥煤等资源供应偏紧，整体供应端弹性有限。进口方面，竞拍成交改善，起拍价与上期持平但全部原 价成交（上期流拍），短期市场接货意愿有所回暖。需求方面，周内焦炭涨价节奏因期货盘面走弱推迟，部分焦企因成本压力亏损扩大，开工维持低位，原料 补库积极性受限；但钢厂高炉生产仍保持一定强度，刚需支撑下焦企预售订单较多，叠加部分区域因运输受阻导致煤矿库存向下游转移不畅，煤矿整体出货压 力不大，价格主体维持稳定；而港口贸易商受盘面及情绪影响，报价多跟随调整，市场交投氛 ...

玻璃八月报 市场情绪降温 尝试短期做空 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-4 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：震荡偏弱 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：七月玻璃期货价格先涨后跌，大幅波动，月底基本跌回月初原点。起初反内卷和化工装置淘汰等政策拉涨盘面， 期货大幅升水带动现货去库并锁住流动性。月末宏观会议落地，市场情绪减弱，盘面回归基本面。供给方面，七月份冷修2条， 点火复产1条，日熔量小幅回落。月内全国库存持续下降，主要还是因为期现商正套拿货导致，其中湖北作为价格洼地，库存 明显下降。同样，沙河市场观望情绪增加，厂家出货放缓，库存已出现拐头向上。华东华南受现货提涨影响，产销良好，库存 保持小幅去化。煤炭价格回升，煤制气成本均有所增加，但幅度不如售价，三种工艺利润得到改善。需求方面，中小加工厂的 订单情况仍然较差，中游加工厂商对需求仍持悲观看法。纯碱方面，产量处于高位水平，库存有止降回升的迹象，结合下半年 投产计划，市场对远期悲观预期较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic anti - involution and key industry stability - growth policies initially drove up copper prices, but later macro - sentiment cooled, and the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products imposed by the Trump administration on August 1st, along with the Fed's hawkish stance, put pressure on copper prices [6][87]. - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with low processing fees and high domestic smelter output. Low inventories support copper prices, but terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased significantly, and there is still downward pressure on copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic policies and the weakening of the US dollar initially boosted copper prices, but later, the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment, the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the Fed's hawkish stance led to a decline in copper prices. The sharp drop in US copper by over 20% also drove down Shanghai and London copper prices [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation showed a moderate increase in June. The CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but the poor non - farm data increased the probability of a rate cut this year [12][13]. - The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range in July, with the ISM manufacturing index at 48, lower than expected. The Markit manufacturing PMI hit a new low since December last year, while the service PMI reached a new high. The US dollar index first weakened and then strengthened in July, putting pressure on commodity prices [15]. Domestic Macroeconomy - China's CPI turned positive in June, rising 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a 14 - month high. The PPI decline widened to 3.6%. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged in July. From January to June, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [22]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, indicating that overall business activities were still expanding. From January to June, China's fixed - asset investment increased by more than 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - From January to May, the global copper concentrate production capacity was 12.105 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the production was 9.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.27%. The copper production in Chile and Peru from January to May was 323,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% [31]. Smelting - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the conflict between mines and smelters persists. As of August 1st, the spot smelting fee (TC) for copper concentrates was - 42 dollars per ton, and the processing fee has been at a historical low [33]. Refined Copper - In June, the utilization rate of copper production capacity increased to 82.69%, and the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. In July, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong, partially offsetting the losses at the smelting end [37]. Import and Export - In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11%. As of July 31st, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.11, and the import profit was negative [38]. Scrap Copper - In June, domestic scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.49% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.06%. In July, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed [42]. Processing - In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 67.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points, but it increased to 71.73% as of August 1st. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in June was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 3.69% [44][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to June, China's power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In June, the cumulative new installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power continued to grow, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [50]. - In June, the real estate completion area decreased by 14.8% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year. The real estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down copper demand [53]. - In June, China's automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.234 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.39%. The new - energy vehicle market maintains high - level development [59]. - In June, the production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners maintained a certain growth rate, and the domestic "Two New" policies are expected to support the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [61]. Inventory - As of August 1st, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 72,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.24%. As of July 28th, the domestic social copper inventory was 120,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.48%. The global visible copper inventory has rebounded from a low level [63][66]. Premium and Discount - In July, the domestic spot premium first rose and then fell. After the US copper tariff was implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory increased, and the LME copper spot/3 - month changed from a premium to a discount [68][69]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - In July, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 83,728.74 lots. As of August 1st, the Shanghai copper position was 176,193 lots, a decrease of 21.34% from the beginning of the month. The net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased significantly [79]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to continue its short - term downward oscillation trend, with support at the 77,600 level. The reference range for copper prices in August is expected to be between 77,000 and 80,000 [83]. 5. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the weak US manufacturing PMI and poor non - farm payroll data increase the probability of a rate cut this year. The Trump administration's 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment put pressure on copper prices [87]. - Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and low inventories support copper prices, but the off - season terminal consumption and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased, and there is still downward pressure on Shanghai and London copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore industry is to expect the market to be volatile with a slight upward bias [2][4][62] Core View of the Report - In July, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. However, considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [3][61] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review: Soaring and Then Falling, Basis Stabilizing 1.1 Market Review: High - level Decline and Adjustment - Last Friday, the discounted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were: Super Special Powder at 846 yuan/ton (- 14), PB Powder at 813 yuan/ton (- 15), Newman Powder at 801 yuan/ton (- 17), and Carajas Powder at 812 yuan/ton (- 13). The dry - basis tax - included price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate was 930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 99.30 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.3, and the monthly average was 99.30 US dollars/ton. The 09 contract of iron ore closed at 783 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 19.5 [8] 1.2 Market Review: Strength of Medium - and High - grade Ores - On August 1st, the contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.09, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous period. The prices of Super Special Powder, PB Powder, and Carajas Powder were 643, 768, and 870 yuan/wet ton respectively. The basis of the PB Powder 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 26 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly decrease of 4 [17][22] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Increased Imports, Profitable Steel Mills 2.1 Import Volume: Significant Increase - In June, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,594.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 833.49. The cumulative imports were 59,255.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 7,504.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 809.70; lump ore imports were 1,787.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120.65; pellet imports were 116.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.16; and iron concentrate imports were 1,186.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 [24][28] 2.2 Domestic Supply: Output Decline - In June, the cumulative output of domestic raw ore was 50,859.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. As of August 1st, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.30 million tons, a decrease of 1.73 from the previous period. The iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 76.80 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 from the previous period [30][31][32] 2.3 Foreign Supply: Stronger Shipments from Brazil - As of July 25th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 million tons, an increase of 198.8 from the previous period. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 million tons, an increase of 222.3, while Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, a decrease of 23.5. As of August 1st, the sea freight from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.05, and from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.53 [42] 2.4 Ports: Decline in Both Arrival and Out - port Volumes - On July 25th, the arrival volume at 45 major domestic ports was 2,240.5 million tons, a decrease of 130.7 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 96, a decrease of 6. The daily average out - port volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 302.71 million tons, a decrease of 12.44 [46] 2.5 Inventory: Steel Mills Restocking - Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,657.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 132.48. Among them, coarse powder inventory was 11,017.53 (- 182.86), lump ore inventory was 1,738.26 (+ 34.76), pellet inventory was 386.14 (- 11.15), and iron concentrate inventory was 1,080.08 (- 14.42). Last Friday, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 9,012.09 million tons, a weekly increase of 126.87, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.46 million tons/day (- 1.64). The total inventory of the two was 24,669.99 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 [47] 2.6 Steel Enterprises' Demand: Decline in Hot Metal Output - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73%. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52. The market price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 [56] 3. Investment Strategy: Affected by Production Cuts, Relatively Strong 3.1 Investment Strategy: Volatile Operation - The iron ore futures market in July first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. Considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [61]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Both stock index and treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating" [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is rated as "Temporarily on the sidelines", iron ore as "Oscillating", and coking coal and coke as "Oscillating" [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is rated as "Range trading or on the sidelines", aluminum as "Buy on dips after a pullback", nickel as "Short on rallies or on the sidelines", tin as "Range trading", gold as "Range trading", and silver as "Range trading" [1][12][14][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are rated as "Oscillating"; polyolefin as "Wide - range oscillating"; soda ash's 09 contract as "Maintain short position" [1][23][25][28][33][34][36] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated as "Oscillating adjustment", apple and jujube as "Oscillating weakly" [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs are rated as "Short on rallies", eggs as "Short on rallies", corn as "Range oscillating", soybean meal as "Limited upside", and oils as "High - level correction risk increasing" [1][40][42][44][46][48] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the influencing factors of each product's price movement, including macro - economic data, policy changes, and industry - specific events [1][6][8][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to weak US non - farm payroll data, internal strife within the Fed, high domestic margin trading, and the approaching mid - report disclosure period, the stock index is expected to oscillate [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: After a volatile week, the market is tired, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. After the market shock and repair caused by anti - involution expectations and Politburo Meeting uncertainties end, treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price oscillated weakly last Friday. With over - optimistic macro expectations cooling and balanced supply - demand, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore market first rose and then fell. With increasing overseas supply and expected decline in iron water demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly and can be used as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has disturbances, and demand has rigid support. Coke supply has limited increase, and demand is strong. Both are expected to oscillate, and short - term key factors need to be closely monitored [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the Fed's stance divergence, weak US economic data, and domestic industry policies, copper supply has disturbances, but it is in the off - season, and overseas inventory may flow back. Copper is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 77600 [12] - **Aluminum**: With rising bauxite prices in Guinea and changes in supply and demand of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has over - supply, and demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] - **Tin**: With improving tin ore supply and weak downstream demand, it is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 250,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [20] - **Gold and Silver**: After the weak US non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. However, considering the Fed's stance and concerns about the US fiscal situation, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [21][22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high upstream production pressure, uncertain export sustainability, and insufficient fundamental support, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on 4950 - 5150 [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply, rigid but slow - growing demand, and the influence of macro factors, it is expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract focusing on 2500 - 2600 [25][26] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warming macro - environment, it is expected to oscillate, focusing on 7200 - 7500 [28][29] - **Rubber**: With high raw material costs and inventory changes, rubber is expected to oscillate, with pressure at 15000 [30][32] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, increasing demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, and stable industrial demand, it is expected to first weaken and then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850 [33] - **Methanol**: With a slight increase in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35] - **Polyolefin**: Affected by macro factors and cost support, with weak demand in the off - season and slight inventory reduction, it is expected to correct in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the 09 contract is recommended to maintain a short position [36][37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption in the new season, and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to oscillate and adjust [38] - **Apple**: With slow apple shipments and normal new - fruit growth, prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [38][39] - **Jujube**: With the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang and changes in the market supply and demand in the sales area, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [40][42] - **Eggs**: With short - term seasonal factors and long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [42][44] - **Corn**: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term supply tightening, it is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread arbitrage [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: With sufficient supply in the short term and potential supply gaps in the long term, it is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [46][47] - **Oils**: With increasing short - term correction risks and limited correction amplitudes, it is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [48][52]