Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry is at a cyclical inflection point, and the key lies in rhythm control. A "full - scale bull market" lacks support, and a scenario of tight supply and warm demand is likely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. [55] - In the short term, be wary of over - extended gains. If demand fails to pick up as expected, high profits may lead to unexpected supply increases. Pay attention to terminal demand, cost transmission, downstream restocking, and upstream production. [55] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Background - **Global Order Reconfiguration**: Geopolitical games reshape the supply curve of commodities, emerging demands form new demand curves, and strategic security needs reshape investment and inventory structures. [5] - **US Situation**: The Fed has started an easing cycle. The US economy shows a mixed picture, with AI and electrification driving capital expenditure while traditional manufacturing is under pressure. [9] - **China's Focus**: In 2026, service consumption will support domestic demand. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, fiscal policy will be actively implemented, real - estate policies will promote new development models, and supply - side reforms will deepen. [16] - **Commodity Rotation and Recent Performance**: The energy structure is in transition, with the proportion of non - water renewable energy increasing. [22] 2. Chemical Views - **Demand Characteristics**: Demand in traditional sectors has a large proportion, and significant growth depends on overall economic recovery. [30] - **Trend Review**: The chemical industry has experienced a four - year decline. In 2025, the energy - chemical sector performed the weakest among commodities, but recently it has rebounded rapidly with internal differentiation. [33][34] - **Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook**: In 2026, demand support will strengthen, supply will be optimized, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, showing signs of bottoming out. [46] - **2026 Capacity Growth**: The growth rate of chemical production capacity will slow down in 2026. [47] - **Short - Term Disturbances**: Extreme weather, geopolitical factors, and capital outflows from the stock and non - ferrous markets are short - term disturbances. [50] - **Characteristics of the Current Uptrend**: The chemical sector is strengthening with structural differentiation, which is essentially a structural valuation repair due to supply - side improvements. Different sub - sectors have different driving factors. [53] - **Future Outlook and Suggestions**: A "full - scale bull market" is unlikely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. Pay attention to cost support, terminal demand, and policy implementation. [55] - **Later Concerns**: Focus on the price trends of oil, gas, and coal, the impact of "anti - involution" policies, and the influence of geopolitical and trade policies on imports and exports. [59][62] - **Variety Views** - **Coal Chemical Industry**: For methanol, supply is uncertain, and price is restricted by import and MTO profit. For urea, the fundamentals are weak, and the price fluctuates between production cost and export policy limits. [65] - **Chlor - Alkali Chemical Industry**: For caustic soda, high supply and weak demand lead to low - valuation and weak - expectation. For PVC, there is no new capacity in 2026, but the fundamental pressure is still large. [67][68] - **Polyester Series**: For PX/PTA, the supply - demand situation improves, and the processing fee may expand. For MEG, short - term supply is expected to decrease, but inventory pressure is significant. [70] - **Benzene Series**: For pure benzene, the negative impact weakens, but high inventory is still a pressure. For styrene, there is a capacity gap, and exports are an important growth point. [72] - **Olefins**: For propylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene, short - term rebound is driven by external factors, and the production pressure is still large in 2026. For synthetic rubber (butadiene), the supply - demand situation is favorable, and a long - term long - position strategy is recommended. [74] 3. Industrial Data The report provides a large amount of data on the spot - futures prices, spreads, profits, supply, demand, and inventory of various chemical products, including MA, UR, SH, PVC, BU, PX, TA, EG, BZ, EB, PE, PP, RU, and BR. [78][108][127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is rising at a high level, with overseas geopolitical risks rapidly increasing. The macro - environment has both supporting and restrictive factors for non - ferrous metals prices. Different metals have different trends and influencing factors, with some showing high - level shocks, some adjusting, and some continuing to rise [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level shock in the range of 98,500 - 105,000 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supported by strong macro - factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, loose monetary policy in 2026, and a 40% increase in power grid investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan", as well as overseas geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar, and strong precious metals. However, the fundamentals are weak, with falling ore processing fees, increasing smelting losses, and low consumption due to the off - season and high copper prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons, and spot transactions are light. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level with limited upside potential. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to inventory changes and policy implementation progress [2]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: High - level adjustment [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has also risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. New production capacity is being put into operation. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate has increased slightly, but overall demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation speed has slowed down. Aluminum prices are affected by capital sentiment and are expected to remain in high - level shock in the short term [2]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Stabilize and rebound, high - level shock [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and production may shrink in January due to some smelter maintenance. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc ingots is low. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China is 119,000 tons, remaining basically unchanged from last week. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain high - level shock [2]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Range shock between 16,800 - 17,200 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: LME and COMEX lead inventories have increased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories have decreased. Lead prices have fallen, and downstream transactions have weakened, putting pressure on futures prices. In the long term, lead prices may show a shock - consolidation trend, and it is recommended to operate within the range [2]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: High - level shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by news from Indonesia, nickel prices are strong, but the spot inventory is accumulating, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the upward momentum of nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both nickel and stainless steel [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supply remains tight, and prices are strongly fluctuating. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and downstream demand is in rigid need. Overseas raw material supply disturbances need to be noted. It is expected that tin prices will continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Wide - range shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Production and inventory of industrial silicon have changed. The production of polysilicon has decreased, and the photovoltaic industry has mixed trends. If a large - scale industrial silicon producer in Xinjiang cuts production by half, it will drive up industrial silicon prices. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at the current position [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by mining permit disturbances in Yichun, supply - side risks exist. Downstream demand for exports is strong, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected that prices will continue to show a strong shock [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data China - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the LPR remained unchanged in January 2026 [13][15][16][18]. USA - The average weekly new employment in the US ADP was 8,000, lower than the previous value of 11,750. The PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the real GDP quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years [19][21][22]. 3.3 Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released next week, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, consumer confidence indexes, and inflation - related data [24].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2026/1/26 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比减少360吨至24150吨，12月产量环比增加3%。宁德枧下窝矿山仍未复产，宜春和青 海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，市场传闻江西部分矿山可能面临停产。三季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本 空间极为有限。海外进口方面，2025年12月国内进口锂精矿为78.9万吨，环比增加8.1%，其中进口量前三的国家分别为澳大利亚、 津巴布韦、尼日利亚。12月澳大利亚进口锂精矿环比减少27%，来自津巴布韦进口13万吨，环比增加20%，来自尼日利亚进口8万吨， 环比减少13%。12月碳酸锂进口23989吨，环比增加9%，来自智利进口1.4万吨，占比56%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-01-26 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，等待逢高沽空 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月23日塑料主力合约收盘价6865元/吨，周环比+2.54%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-1.28%，HDPE均价 为7200元/吨，环比-0.52%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6987.78元/吨，环比+0.38%。LLDPE华南基差收于122.78元/ 吨，环比-58.33%，5-9月差-22元/吨（+6）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6656元/吨，较上周末+160元/吨，环比+2.46%。生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6580元/吨（+0.05%）。PP基差收-76元/吨（-157），1-5月差-11元/吨（+250）。 2 3 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率84.67%，较上周+3.08个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量69.89万吨，环比 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-26 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需博弈，期价震荡运行 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至1月23日，鸡蛋主产区均价报3.83元/斤，较上周五涨0.23元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报3.83元/斤，较上周五涨0.24元/斤；鸡蛋主力 2603收于3046元/500千克，较上周五跌26元/500千克；主力合约基差514元/500千克，较上周五走强256元/500千克。周度蛋价先稳后涨，春节 临近，渠道备货需求增加，产区走货速度加快，支撑蛋价上涨。盘面主力03合约涨跌互现，当前贴水现货，基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：1月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年8月补栏，环同比均下滑，开产量属于平均水平，存栏高点于25年中秋前后已现，呈现缓慢下滑态势，不过 存栏基数仍偏大，近期蛋价表现偏强，养殖利润修复，悲观情绪有所缓 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 2026/1/26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 2026/01/02 格陵兰岛问题持续升级，地缘紧张局势升温，避险情绪 升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4983美元/盎司，周内上涨8.3%，关注上方压力位5100， 下方支撑位4900。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 77.0000 87.0000 97.0000 107.0000 2021/01/01 202 /01/01 20 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Weak Industry and Inventory Accumulation, Copper Prices Oscillating at High Levels [1] Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. Supported by factors such as China's GDP growth, loose monetary policy, increased power grid investment, overseas geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and rising precious metals, copper prices were affected by tight supply at the mine end and weak downstream demand due to high prices, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5][10] Summary by Directory 1. Main View and Strategy 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. As of January 23, it closed at 101,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, and the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose. The "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to failed negotiations. US President Trump does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations in China, domestic inventory has been continuously accumulating, and copper prices have oscillated at high levels [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the processing fee has remained at a historical low. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In December, the supply of scrap - produced anode copper increased, and the sulfuric acid price was strong, so smelters had little willingness to actively reduce production. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [8] 1.3 Demand Side - High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations, but the copper foil industry's operating rate has increased against the trend. As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders have recovered, and the approaching Spring Festival has led enterprises to accelerate production and stock up, driving the operating rate up. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have seriously weakened the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high - priced raw materials, resulting in a significant shrinkage in order volume and a decline in the operating rate of copper strip enterprises. Most brass rod production enterprises have increased production to meet their annual output value targets, driving the industry's operating rate up. Large enterprises have stable orders and increased production at the end of the year to prepare for the New Year's Day holiday, leading to an increase in the operating rate. The copper foil industry's operating rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry remains highly prosperous. The traditional end - of - year production rush in the downstream has supported the demand at a high level [9] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to pile up. As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [9] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - At the macro - level, China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the processing fee at the mine end continues to decline, and smelting losses are expanding. US President Trump said that he does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. The traditional off - season and high copper prices have suppressed consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are generally at a discount, and trading is light. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 4.5%. The GDP in 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, achieving the annual growth target. In December 2025, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth momentum. In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with mining investment increasing by 2.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6%. China's LPR in January remained unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank deputy governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [15][19][21] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In 2025, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its production target. Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the next few years, and the peak production will be postponed for several years. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 and 2027. In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased by 14.83% month - on - month. In 2025, China's cumulative refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike, tightening the global copper supply. Freeport - McMoRan reported its 2025 production and consumption data and its 2026 production forecast. The ICSG and WBMS data show that the global refined copper market had a supply surplus in November 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine restart is progressing as planned [22][24] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - The spot premium of Shanghai copper has continued to decline, and market trading has remained light. The decline in copper prices during the week has improved trading volume, and demand has recovered slightly. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot market will maintain a pattern of "high discount, weak trading" next week. The LME copper 0 - 3 has changed from a large premium to a discount. The premium of the copper spot contract over the three - month contract once exceeded 100 US dollars per ton, indicating strong near - term delivery demand and a shortage of deliverable spot inventory. US President Trump's statement has narrowed the LME - COMEX spread [29] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of January 23, the Shanghai copper futures position was 231,437 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 210,695.4 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 26.52%. As of January 16, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,618.35 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. As of January 20, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 62,806 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [31] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrates continues due to mine - end disturbances, and the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [40] 4.2 Downstream Operating Rate - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.51 percentage points. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have affected the operating rates of different downstream industries, but the copper foil industry has maintained a high and rising operating rate [44] 4.3 Inventory - As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [49]

Report Overview - The report is the "Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report" dated January 26, 2026, focusing on the analysis of the meal and oil industries [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views Soybean Meal - Before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price of soybean meal faces upward pressure. The near - month contracts are supported by destocking expectations and cost, but the upward space is limited. The 03 contract is expected to be strong in a narrow range, while the 05 contract may be weak due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and loose domestic supply and demand [8]. Oils - Biodiesel and trade policies disrupt the oil market, leading to a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in imports after the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, while soybean and palm oils have upward momentum but are limited by factors such as the abandonment of the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia and the unchanged expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [76][77]. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of January 23, the spot price in East China was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The M2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The basis price was 05 + 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. US soybeans were oscillating strongly, and domestic soybean meal followed a low - level rebound. However, the good import crushing profit and loose supply and demand limited the upward space [8][10]. 2. Supply - The weather in South America is favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. From January to March in China, the arrival of soybeans will decrease, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal will gradually decline. However, from April to July, the arrival of soybeans will remain high, and the supply pressure will be large. The purchase progress of ships after March is slow, and the arrival from July to September may decrease slightly year - on - year [8]. 3. Demand - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - performance of soybean meal, supports the demand. In the third week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills decreased to 687.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.62% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline to 94.72 million tons, the lowest level in five months [8]. 4. Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. Oils 1. Market Review - As of the week of January 23, the palm oil 05 contract rose 236 yuan/ton to 8910 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 8094 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 72 yuan/ton to 8991 yuan/ton. The prices of spot palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils also changed accordingly, and the basis prices of the three oils all declined [77][78]. 2. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows that from January 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 8.64 - 11.4%. The market expects a turning point in Malaysian inventory in January. In China, the inventory continued to increase slightly to 74.61 million tons as of January 16 due to increased purchases before the Indonesian tax increase and weak winter demand [77]. 3. Soybean Oil - US soybeans have rebounded recently due to strong export and crushing demand. The market expects the US biodiesel quota to increase in 2026. Although the overall harvest forecast of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, the tight supply of soybeans from January to March in China may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of oil mills and support inventory destocking. As of January 16, the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 96.33 million tons [77]. 4. Rapeseed Oil - After the China - Canada negotiation, China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to increase imports. However, the current domestic supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. As of January 16, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remained at 27.6 million tons [77].

玻璃：下游临近放假 缺少向上动力 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-26 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：短期观望 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货先跌后涨，周线报收中阴线。供给方面，上周无产线变动，日熔量在14.9万吨。全国厂家库存稳 定，市场投机需求转弱。沙河低价支持厂家库存进一步降低，但期货价格下跌影响，期现商价格更有优势，中游整体库存高位。 华中受风雪天气影响，出货阶段性受限，厂家库存由降转增。华东华南有部分订单赶工情况，刚需形成局部价格支撑。需求方 面， 北方市场仍旧表现乏力，部分加工厂下旬将逐步放假，南方区域生产订单多维持至月底。年前整体产销有重新下滑的可能。 纯碱方面，远兴二期预计1月末出货，天然碱带来的成本重心下移效果强于煤炭的短期扰动，关注多玻璃空纯碱的机会。 后市展望：厂家出货速度放缓，中下游消化高位库存有限，年底前产销有持续走弱的预期。此外，宏观政策预期降温，盘 面缺少实质性的上涨动力。技术上看，多方力量略占优，价格处于震荡调整阶段。综上，预计玻璃价格 ...

长江期货尿素周报： 日产提升 基差走弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2026-01-26 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：日产提升 基差走弱 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素盘面价格先弱后强。1月23日尿素2605合约收盘价1788元/吨，较上周下调3元/吨，跌幅 0.17%，期间最高1797元/吨，最低1756元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1727元/吨，较上周下调17元/吨，跌幅 0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差走弱，1月23日河南市场主力基差-61元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-61）— （-41）元/ 吨。价差：尿素5-9价差窄幅波动，1月23日 5-9 价差25元/吨，周度运行区间 25 — 29 元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率85.99%，较上周提升2.4个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率58%，较上 周提升3.82个百分点，尿素日均产量20.34万吨。云南、四川、河南部分检修装置复产，日产量增至20万吨以上，货 源供应充足，下周四川地区检修装置计划恢复， ...