2025 年 3 月 27 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 ◼ 药明生物（2269 HK, 买入，目标价：30.94 港元） – 强健需求驱动 25 年加 速增长 药明生物公布亮眼的 24 年业绩，收入同比增长 9.6%，经调整利润（即剔除 XDC 少数股东权益前的利润）同比增长 9.0%，收入和利润增速均接近此前 指引（增长 5-10%）区间的上端。非新冠收入同比增长 13.1%，显示出稳健 的客户需求。管理层预计 25 年收入将增长 12-15%，持续经营（即剔除爱尔 兰疫苗业务）收入同比增长 17-20%。 2H24 业绩展现不俗的改善趋势。24 年下半年收入同比增长 18.3%，相比 24 年上半年的 7.7%的同比增速显著提速。非新冠收入同比增长 13.1%，其中下 半年增长 18.3%。所有业务板块均展现提速趋势，特别是临床前收入下半年 同比强劲增长 54.2%（vs 1H24：同比增长 9.2%）。 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion is maintained as BUY, despite a downward revision of the target price to RMB9.9 for A-shares and HK$7.4 for H-shares [1][5][6]. Core Views - The 2024 results of Zoomlion were below expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in overseas revenue growth, a reduction in other income, and an increase in inventory turnover days. The company is still viewed positively for its structural overseas growth strategy, particularly in emerging economies [1][4]. - The management is confident in reducing inventory levels in 2025, and there are buying opportunities following the post-results pullback [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, revenue decreased by 3.4% YoY to RMB45.478 billion, while adjusted net profit slightly declined by 1.3% YoY to RMB3.521 billion. The forecast for FY25 and FY26 earnings has been revised down by 7% and 8% respectively [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 4Q24 showed a 4% YoY decline to RMB11.1 billion, with domestic revenue dropping by 18% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 14% YoY [4][7]. - The blended gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points YoY to 27.5%, driven by higher margins in overseas markets [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The revenue forecast for FY25 is set at RMB52.999 billion, with expected growth of 16.5% YoY, followed by RMB61.848 billion in FY26 and RMB69.277 billion in FY27 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase to RMB4.177 billion in FY25, RMB4.705 billion in FY26, and RMB5.229 billion in FY27, reflecting a growth trajectory despite recent challenges [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Zoomlion has low exposure to the domestic property sector, with only 13% of total sales in 2024 related to property. The company is focusing on infrastructure, wind power installation, and chemical plant construction for growth [4][6]. - Management plans to accelerate overseas market expansion and continue focusing on earth-working, mining, and agricultural machinery as growth drivers [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for A-shares is based on a 2025E P/E multiple of 19.5x, reflecting a historical average, while the H-share target price incorporates a 30% discount [5][6]. - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.5x in FY24 to 11.3x in FY25, indicating a more attractive valuation for investors [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report resumes coverage of China Taiping with a "BUY" rating and a target price (TP) of HK$15, indicating a potential upside of 28.9% from the current price of HK$11.64 [1][2]. Core Insights - China Taiping reported a robust net profit increase of 36.2% year-on-year (YoY) to HK$8.43 billion, although this was 10% to 11% lower than the analyst's and Bloomberg consensus estimates. The increase in income tax charges, which rose approximately six-fold YoY, was a significant factor in this discrepancy [1]. - The new business value (NBV) surged 90% YoY to HK$14.3 billion on a like-for-like basis, driven by strong growth in agency and bancassurance channels, which saw increases of 42% and 400% YoY, respectively [7]. - The report highlights a significant margin expansion across major channels, with the total NBV margin increasing by 17 percentage points YoY to 32.5% in FY24 [1][7]. - The combined ratio for the property and casualty (P&C) segment improved to 98.1%, supporting a remarkable 831% YoY increase in net profit for domestic P&C to HK$804 million [1][7]. - The report projects FY25 NBV to rise by 11% YoY, supported by an improved product mix and solid financial performance [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, net profit is projected at HK$12.8 billion, with an expected increase to HK$14.5 billion in FY25 and HK$16.3 billion in FY26 [8]. - The report indicates a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$0.35 for FY24, reflecting a 16.7% YoY increase, although the payout ratio decreased to 16.9% from 20.1% in FY23 [1][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.2% in FY24 to 12.9% in FY25, indicating enhanced profitability [8][17]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, considering various segments including life insurance, domestic and overseas P&C, reinsurance, and asset management [9][12]. - The total fair value of the company is estimated at HK$49.7 billion, leading to a target price of HK$15.0 per share after applying a 10% conglomerate discount [13][14].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Minth Group, indicating potential for over 15% return over the next 12 months [1][7][14] Core Views - Minth Group's 2H24 earnings showed mixed results with revenue falling short of expectations while gross profit margin (GPM) exceeded projections. Improved operational efficiency is evident through reduced net debt, lower capital expenditures (capex), and significantly higher free cash flow, which could support future margin enhancements and increased dividend payouts [1][7] - The company is well-positioned for revenue growth in FY25-27E, driven by rapid growth in battery housing revenue and the introduction of new products that are expected to generate substantial income. Battery housing margins are anticipated to improve further in FY25E as capex decreases [1][7] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 23,147 million in FY24A to RMB 26,186 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [2][11] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,319 million in FY24A to RMB 2,719 million in FY25E, representing a 17.2% year-on-year growth [2][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.02 in FY24A to RMB 2.37 in FY25E [2][11] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 9.9x in FY24A to 8.5x in FY25E, indicating a more attractive valuation [2][11] Share Performance - The current market capitalization of Minth Group is approximately HK$ 24,982.9 million, with a target price set at HK$ 26.00, suggesting a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of HK$ 21.50 [3][4] - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 2.6% and a 6-month increase of 48.9% [5] Operational Efficiency - Free cash flow surged from RMB 131 million in FY23 to RMB 1,363 million in FY24, highlighting significant operational improvements [7] - The net gearing ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4% in FY24A to 6.4% in FY25E, indicating a stronger balance sheet [2][11]

Company Analysis - Kuaishou (1024 HK) reported a total revenue of 35.4 billion yuan for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 8% to 4.7 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [2] - For FY24, total revenue and adjusted net profit are projected to grow by 12% and 72% respectively [2] - The forecast for FY25 indicates a 12% increase in total revenue, with stable adjusted net profit margins, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin business income and improved operational efficiency, although offset by increased AI-related investments [2] - The target price for Kuaishou has been adjusted down to 80.0 HKD from a previous 85.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,344, down 2.35% for the day but up 36.94% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 3.82% in a single day, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 46.58% [3] - The performance of major global indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 0.16% and 0.46% respectively, while the DAX in Germany rose by 1.13% [3] Sector Insights - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) is expected to see revenue and net profit growth of 21% and 146% respectively in 2024, benefiting from strong growth across all business segments and improved product mix [6] - The company is focusing on expanding into automotive, XR, and robotics sectors, which are anticipated to drive profit growth in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The target price for Sunny Optical has been slightly adjusted to 101.47 HKD from 102.89 HKD, reflecting a P/E ratio of 30.3 for 2025 [6] Financial Services - China Taiping (966 HK) reported a 36.2% increase in net profit to 8.43 billion HKD for 2024, although this was below market expectations due to increased tax provisions [11] - The company’s new business value (NBV) grew significantly, with a 90% increase to 14.27 billion HKD, driven by improved value rates [12] - The target price for China Taiping has been set at 15 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 29% based on current valuations [15]

2025 年 3 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 比亚迪（1211 HK/002594 CH，买入，目标价：470 港元/440 元人民币) - 4Q24 高质量盈利为 2025 年盈利增长奠定基础 4Q24 业绩超预期，盈利质量高：比亚迪 4Q24 收入较我们先前预测高 6%。 尽管受到行业价格战的影响，公司剔除比亚迪电子业务后，平均售价连续两 个季度环比提升。4Q24 毛利率降至 17.0%，主要受到会计准则变更（将质保 金从销售费用调整至营业成本）的影响，还原可比口径，4Q24 毛利率应为 21.5%，较我们预期高 0.9 个百分点。4Q24 研发费用较我们预测高约 16% （2024 年研发投入 540 亿元，98%费用化），净利润环比增长 29%至 150 亿 元，较我们的预期高出 14%。 更全面的产品矩阵+出海+电池技术升级+自动驾驶追赶共筑 2025 增长动能： 我们认为公司 4Q24 扎实的业绩表现再次验证规模经济优势。我们预计比亚 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市 ...

2025 年 3 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 中国重卡板块 - 货车以旧换新补贴涵盖国四和天然气卡车；潍柴成为主要受 惠者 事件: 中国交通运输部、发改委和财政部于 3 月 18 日联合发布了关于实施老 旧营运货车报废更新的通知。2025 年的补贴水平将与 2024 年大致相同。主 要变化包括：(1) 新补贴范围涵盖国三和国四货车的提前报废（去年仅限国三 及以下）；(2) 购买所有货车均可享受补贴（之前仅限柴油货车）。 我们的观点：新的补贴计划增强了我们对今年重卡销售的积极看法，主要由 于: (1) 根据我们的估计，国四重卡保有量规模占总重卡的 30%；(2) 最重要的 是，今年新购车的补贴范围将包括天然气货车，而去年仅包括柴油货车。我 们认为潍柴动力 (2338 HK / 000338 CH, 买入) 将成为主要受益者，因为公司 在天然气重卡发动机市场占有主导地位 (>60%)。我们给予持有评级的中国重 汽 (3808 HK) 也将受益。（链接） 公司点评 腾讯（700 HK；买入；目标价：625.0 港元）- 加大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for INT Medical, expecting a return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][18]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 13.2% year-on-year to RMB 852 million, slightly below the forecasted 13% due to pressures from value-based pricing (VBP) and intense competition in the CDMO sector [1][2]. - The company achieved a significant gross margin improvement of 5 percentage points, reaching 63.1% in 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and automation [1]. - Overseas sales are optimistic, with total overseas revenue expected to grow by 24.2% year-on-year to RMB 253 million, accounting for 29.6% of total sales [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 753 million in 2023 to RMB 1,025 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4% [3]. - The attributable net profit is expected to rise from RMB 192 million in 2024 to RMB 206 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.10 in 2024 to RMB 1.17 in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 6.6% [3]. Valuation - The target price for INT Medical is set at HKD 33.68 based on a 9-year DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 2.0% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.73% [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for INT Medical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 grew by 13.2% YoY to RMB 852 million, which was 13% below the analyst's estimate, primarily due to pressures on its CDMO business from VBP and increased competition [1]. - The company's attributable net profit increased by 22.7% YoY to RMB 192 million, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The target price is set at HK$33.68, reflecting a 25% upside from the current price of HK$26.95 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB 1,025 million, RMB 1,225 million, and RMB 1,398 million, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 20.4%, 19.5%, and 14.1% [2]. - Attributable net profit for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E is expected to be RMB 206 million, RMB 245 million, and RMB 280 million, with YoY growth rates of 7.5%, 18.7%, and 14.4% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 63.1% in 2024, up 5 percentage points, driven by enhanced capacity utilization and increased automation [7]. Market and Operational Insights - INT Medical expanded its overseas customer base to 281, covering over 86 countries and regions, with overseas revenue growing by 24.2% YoY to RMB 253 million, representing 29.6% of total sales [7]. - The company has implemented cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement measures, which are expected to stabilize gross margins despite the negative impact of VBP [7]. - The report anticipates solid revenue growth for INT Medical in 2025E, with revenue and attributable net profit projected to increase by 20.4% YoY and 7.5% YoY, respectively [7].