Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) has a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 46% with a P/E ratio of 16.42[5] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US) has a target price of 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 50% with a P/E ratio of 18.65[5] - Sany International (631 HK) has a target price of 8.70, suggesting a potential upside of 28% with a P/E ratio of 6.82[5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 40.61, indicating a potential upside of 15% with a P/E ratio of 35.30[5] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, representing a potential upside of 30% with a P/E ratio of 509.50[5] Group 2: Performance Overview - The basket of 23 long positions had an average return of 1.1%, outperforming the MSCI China Index which returned 0.7%[9] - Among the 23 stocks, 7 stocks outperformed the benchmark[9] - The report includes a total of 23 stocks with various sectors such as automotive, technology, and healthcare[5]

Macro Commentary - The economic recovery in China remains unbalanced, with May data showing significant retail sales growth supported by the old-for-new policy, while real estate sales have declined further and industrial output growth has generally slowed [2] - GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.9% in Q2 and 4.7% in the second half of the year, potentially facing headwinds from weakening exports and diminishing effects of the old-for-new policy [2] - If a preliminary trade agreement is reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumer stimulation, and promoting capacity reduction in manufacturing [2] Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,061, up 0.70% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% to 6,033 [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.15% year-to-date, reflecting a strong performance in the technology sector [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong market was mixed, with financials and industrials leading gains, while real estate and healthcare sectors faced declines [4] Sector Analysis - The automotive sector is highlighted with companies like Geely Automobile and Xpeng Motors rated as "Buy," with target prices indicating potential upside of 46% and 50% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector also shows promise, with companies like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry rated as "Buy," suggesting potential price increases of 19% and 24% respectively [6] - In the consumer sector, Luckin Coffee and PepsiCo are rated as "Buy," with expected price increases of 15% and 61% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6] Credit and Economic Support - China's credit situation remains weak, driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand is still sluggish [5] - The social financing scale growth rate has rebounded due to accelerated government bond issuance, but household confidence is affected by tariff shocks, impacting housing and consumption [5] - More policy support is needed to revitalize private economic recovery, with expectations of a further 10 basis point reduction in LPR by the second half of 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 93, based on a 25x forecasted P/E for 2025 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company is viewed as a high-quality target in the semiconductor sector, with sustainable growth potential. The management's clear and sustainable growth strategy has left a strong impression [1][7]. - The report highlights three key areas of investor focus: downstream demand outlook, geopolitical risks, and the company's investment plans for upstream manufacturing resources [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth of 20%-30% despite macroeconomic uncertainties, driven by the expansion of new product categories [7][8]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 1,172 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 25.6% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 342.1 million in FY27E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 53.9% from FY25E onwards, indicating consistent profitability [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The company's current valuation stands at 19.3x P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 0.77, which is considered attractive compared to the industry average of 66.1x [7][8][13]. - The target price of HKD 93 represents a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 73 [3][7]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant performance, with a 151.3% absolute return over the past six months [4]. - The stock's market capitalization is approximately HKD 1.314 billion, with a 52-week price range of HKD 73.00 to HKD 23.05 [3][4].

Macro Economic Overview - China's credit situation continues to be driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand remains weak. The growth rate of social financing in May has rebounded due to accelerated issuance of government bonds. However, tariff impacts are dragging down household purchasing, consumption, and corporate capital expenditure, leading to a continuous decline in new RMB loans year-on-year. More policy support is needed to revive private economic recovery momentum [2] - It is expected that the LPR will be further lowered by 10 basis points in the second half of 2025, and the broad fiscal deficit may moderately increase. The central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity to support credit growth and stabilize the real estate sector, countering the impacts of tariff shocks. If a trade agreement can be reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumption stimulation, and advancing manufacturing capacity reduction [2][4] Company Analysis Mindray Medical (300760 CH) - Mindray Medical recently held an investor day, focusing on the digital transformation of its equipment business and the expansion strategy of its flow-type business, aiming to build an overall solution covering all departments with "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables." Key highlights include the establishment of a digital medical ecosystem based on IT + AI technology across three major production lines [5] - The company’s AI medical layout mainly focuses on emergency, surgery, and critical care, with the launch of a major model for critical care expected in December 2024, aiming to complete installations in over 30 hospitals this year. By the end of 2025, the company plans to release a major model for anesthesia, with specialized models for emergency, cardiovascular, ultrasound, and laboratory expected to be released in the next 1-2 years [5][6] - The automated assembly line is a key breakthrough for the IVD business, with over 200 new installations expected globally in 2024 and around 300 installations anticipated in 2025. The comprehensive IVD layout supports the company’s multi-disciplinary assembly line production, providing cost and iteration efficiency advantages [6][7] Baker Microelectronics (2149 HK) - Baker Microelectronics remains a core recommendation in the semiconductor sector, with a focus on demand prospects, geopolitical uncertainties, and upstream manufacturing resource investment plans. The company has a clear and sustainable growth strategy [8] Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth to $5.87 billion for Q2 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 7% to $2.17 billion, both in line with consensus expectations. The company raised its FY25 total revenue guidance to $23.5-23.6 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in its digital media business and increased penetration of AI products [8] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK): Buy rating, target price of 24.00 HKD, potential upside of 47% [9] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US): Buy rating, target price of 28.00 USD, potential upside of 54% [9] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Buy rating, target price of 40.61 USD, potential upside of 15% [9] - Tencent (700 HK): Buy rating, target price of 660.00 HKD, potential upside of 29% [9] - Alibaba (BABA US): Buy rating, target price of 155.50 USD, potential upside of 38% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 272.90, reflecting a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of RMB 237.28 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a digital and streamlined transformation, focusing on creating a comprehensive "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables" solution across all departments [1]. - Key highlights include the establishment of a smart medical ecosystem based on IT and AI technologies, and the continuous expansion of business boundaries to support long-term growth [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the IT and AI business development cycle may take time to generate substantial revenue, but it will enhance product performance and competitiveness in the long run [6]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 34,932 million in FY23A to RMB 49,573 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 10.9% [2][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 11,582 million in FY23A to RMB 14,952 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.3% [2][11]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 24.8 in FY23A to 19.2 in FY27E, indicating improving valuation metrics [2][11]. Business Segments - The company is focusing on several key areas: - **Life Information and Support Business**: Utilizing AI to enhance clinical decision-making and patient care [6]. - **Ultrasound Business**: Offering AI-driven solutions to improve diagnostic efficiency and quality [6]. - **In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD)**: Expanding automated production lines and launching new products to enhance market competitiveness [6]. - **Emerging Business**: Targeting interventional and minimally invasive treatments, with plans to develop surgical robots [6]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation indicates a per-share value of RMB 272.90, based on a WACC of 9.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [8]. - The report shows a slight upward adjustment in profit expectations, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [6][10].

Macro Economic Overview - US inflation in May was lower than expected, with energy prices declining and weak consumer demand offsetting tariff impacts, leading to a slight decrease in core goods prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September to December [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,035, down 1.36% for the day but up 40.99% year-to-date [2] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.24% and the S&P 500 up 0.38%, while the Nasdaq also increased by 0.24% [2] - European markets experienced a decline for the fourth consecutive day, while the UK index reached a historical high [4] Industry Insights - In the internet sector, the focus has shifted back to the effectiveness of competitive barriers and business model moats, with many companies reporting profits in line with or above market expectations [5] - Companies with strong ecosystems and network effects, as well as those with higher profit margins, are expected to perform better in a competitive landscape [5] - Recommended stocks in the online entertainment sector include Kuaishou, NetEase, and Tencent Music, which are expected to benefit from stable advertising growth and user engagement [5] Long-term Investment Focus - Two main investment themes are highlighted: companies with strong technology attributes and diverse application scenarios, particularly those benefiting from AI demand, such as Alibaba and Tencent [6] - Companies related to overseas services, including gaming and cloud services, are also recommended for long-term investment [6] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 24.00, representing a 37% upside [7] - Alibaba (BABA US) is also rated as a buy with a target price of 155.50, indicating a 28% upside [7] - Other recommended stocks include Tencent, Ctrip, and Luckin Coffee, all rated as buy with significant upside potential [7]

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]

Company Analysis - Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales and the initial effects of store reform are in line with expectations [2] - In Q2, same-store sales are anticipated to improve, with a notable decrease in the decline from double digits in April to single digits in early June, significantly better than the 21.2% drop in Q1 [2] - The average selling price has stabilized due to reduced discounts, and the decline in Q2 is mainly attributed to decreased foot traffic [2] - The table turnover rate for the Taier brand is expected to improve to approximately 3.3 times in Q2 from 3.1 times in Q1, driven by a low base from last year, reduced competition, extended holidays, and consumer sentiment boosted by appliance subsidies [2] - Store renovations have had a positive impact, with significant upgrades emphasizing fresh ingredients and diverse menus [2] - Three large stores in Guangzhou have been renovated at an investment of 1.8-2 million yuan each, with completion in 45 days, achieving turnover rates of 4-5 times on weekdays and 6-8 times on weekends [2] - Approximately 20 small stores have also been upgraded, costing 200,000-300,000 yuan each, with a 30% increase in same-store sales post-renovation [2] - The management indicated that a sales growth of about 12% would cover the additional costs incurred from renovations [2] - Plans are in place to upgrade 50 stores in the first half of the year, reaching 70 by July, and further adjusting 100-150 stores in the second half [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,367, up 2.41% for the day and 42.94% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.12%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 44.81% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.50%, with a year-to-date rise of 14.37% [3] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.24% and the S&P 500 up 0.64%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.95% [3] - European markets had varied performances, with the DAX down 1.01% and the CAC up 0.37% [3] Sector Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw materials, energy, and financial sectors leading the gains, while consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities declined [5] - In the A-share market, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and non-bank financials performed well, while biomedicine, communications, and beauty care lagged [5] - The European Central Bank projected that gold will account for 20% of global central bank reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Jiumaojiu with a target price raised to HK$ 2.99 from the previous HK$ 2.56, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% from the current price of HK$ 2.68 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales (SSS), with a decline narrowing in 2Q25E, attributed to initial successes in store format upgrades. The sustainability of this recovery into 2H25E and FY26E is crucial [1][10]. - The management has implemented a store format upgrade focusing on fresh ingredients, which has shown positive results. The upgrades are expected to enhance traffic and sales significantly [10][14]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E increased by 9,042%, 33%, and 22% respectively, reflecting lower impairment losses and improved operating margins [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 6,140 million, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1%. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6,911 million and RMB 7,088 million respectively [2][18]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 327.3 million in FY25E to RMB 532.6 million in FY26E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 142 million in FY25E to RMB 298 million in FY26E [2][18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in diluted EPS for FY25E to RMB 0.103, reflecting a growth of 9,154.1% compared to the previous year [11][18]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is approximately HK$ 3,897.3 million, with a 52-week high of HK$ 5.54 and a low of HK$ 2.19 [4]. - Recent share performance shows a 1-month increase of 3.9%, but a decline of 31.1% over the past 6 months [6]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Mr. Guan Yi Hong, holding 37.4% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 7.5% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 23.9x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 11.4x in FY26E and further to 9.5x in FY27E [2][18]. - The projected dividend yield for FY25E is approximately 2.1%, with a payout ratio assumed at 50% of net profit [14].

Industry Overview - The demand for excavators in the Chinese construction machinery industry showed a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in May, which is below expectations. However, this is viewed as a single-month drop following a strong growth trend since early 2024, indicating resilience in the excavator market driven by replacement demand [2] - In contrast, the domestic sales of wheel loaders increased by 17% year-on-year in May, likely supported by robust capital expenditures in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] - The report maintains a buy rating for Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK / 000157 CH) [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,163, up 1.56% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.00%, reflecting a 43.25% increase for the year [2] - The performance of major global stock indices was mixed, with the US Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing slight gains, while the German DAX and French CAC experienced declines [3] Company Specifics - Hengli Hydraulic's hydraulic cylinder production for excavators continues to show an upward trend, indicating stable downstream orders [2] - The report highlights the potential for investment in the construction machinery sector, particularly in companies that are expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure developments and equipment upgrades [2]