Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili with a target price of US$22.00, reflecting an upside potential of 18.3% from the current price of US$18.59 [3][7]. Core Insights - Bilibili reported a total revenue of RMB7.31 billion for 3Q24, representing a 26% year-over-year increase, which exceeded both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates [1]. - The company achieved quarterly breakeven with an adjusted net income of RMB236 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB878 million in 3Q23 [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to the success of the new game title SanMou and effective cost optimization initiatives [1]. - For 4Q24, total revenue is expected to grow by 21% year-over-year, with adjusted net margin projected to expand to 5.3% [1]. Revenue Performance - Mobile games revenue surged by 84% year-over-year to RMB1.82 billion in 3Q24, driven primarily by SanMou's performance [1]. - Advertising revenue increased by 28% year-over-year to RMB2.09 billion, supported by approximately 50% growth in performance-based ads [1]. - Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue rose by 9% year-over-year to RMB2.82 billion, mainly due to growth in premium membership and Fan Charging revenue [1]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts continued revenue growth momentum into 4Q24, with mobile games, advertising, and VAS revenues expected to grow by 78%, 24%, and 5% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - SanMou's upcoming Season 4 launch is anticipated to further boost mobile game revenue in 4Q24 [1]. - Management expects advertising revenue to maintain faster-than-industry growth, supported by increasing ad inventories and improving monetization efficiency [1]. Margin Expansion - The overall gross profit margin expanded by 9.9 percentage points year-over-year to 34.9% in 3Q24, attributed to cost optimization and strong mobile game performance [1]. - Adjusted net margin improved by 18.4 percentage points year-over-year to 3.2% in 3Q24, with expectations for further expansion to 5.3% in 4Q24 [1]. Financial Forecasts - The report updates the revenue forecasts for FY24-26, increasing them by 1-5% due to robust game performance [1]. - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB26.78 billion, with a gross margin of 32.8% and an adjusted net profit of RMB68 million [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for JD.com with a target price of US$53.2, reflecting a potential upside of 49.1% from the current price of US$35.69 [2][11]. Core Insights - JD.com reported a revenue of RMB260.4 billion for 3Q24, marking a 5.1% year-over-year increase, which aligns with Bloomberg consensus. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB13.2 billion, up 24% year-over-year, exceeding consensus by 16% [1]. - The management noted an improving trend in consumer sentiment during 3Q24, driven by a nationwide home appliance trade-in program and new smartphone launches, contributing to sequential revenue growth in Electronics and Home Appliances [1]. - JD.com is shifting its focus from ROI and cost control to GMV and revenue growth, while maintaining a commitment to quality and sustainable earnings growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - JD's net product revenue for 3Q24 was RMB204.6 billion, up 4.8% year-over-year, with Electronics and Home Appliances revenue increasing by 2.7% year-over-year [1]. - General merchandise revenue grew by 8.0% year-over-year, with the supermarket category achieving over 10% year-over-year growth [1]. - Net services revenue reached RMB55.8 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year, with marketplace and ads revenue growing by 6.3% year-over-year [1]. Segment Performance - JD Retail (JDR) reported revenue of RMB225.0 billion in 3Q24, up 6.1% year-over-year, with operating profit of RMB11.6 billion, exceeding consensus by 6% [1]. - JD Logistics (JDL) achieved an operating profit of RMB2.1 billion, significantly contributing to the overall operating profit growth of JD [1]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for JD Retail was 5.2%, remaining flat year-over-year, supported by better-than-expected GPM expansion and a shift towards higher-margin categories [1]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD.com are projected to reach RMB1,135.8 billion in FY24, with a year-over-year growth of 4.7%, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4][9]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow to RMB39.4 billion in FY24, with adjusted net profit margins expected to stabilize around 4.0% in FY24 [4][17]. Shareholder Returns - JD.com has repurchased approximately 1.1% of its ordinary shares for the nine months ending September 30, 2024, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [1].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price increase from HK$14.00 to HK$19.00, representing a 36.7% upside from the current price of HK$13.90 [2][5]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's 3Q24 NEV sales and profitability are strong, with expectations for continued momentum into FY25, leading to significant core profit growth [2]. - 3Q24 operating profit of RMB3.0 billion exceeded estimates by 13%, despite a slight revenue miss of 2% compared to prior forecasts [2]. - The company has raised its FY25E sales volume forecast by 18% to 2.38 million units, driven by positive reception of new NEV models [2]. Financial Performance Summary - 3Q24 revenue was RMB60.4 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 15.6%, slightly improved from 15.5% in FY24E [2][10]. - The net profit forecast for FY25E has been revised up by 43% to RMB12.4 billion, reflecting strong NEV performance and cost control measures [2][7]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB2.45 billion in 3Q24, which was largely in line with previous forecasts, excluding an impairment loss of RMB2.76 billion from Lynk & Co [2][10]. Sales and Production Outlook - NEV sales volume is projected to surge by 51% year-on-year to 1.32 million units in FY25E, constituting 55% of total sales volume [2]. - The sales volume for Geely increased by 15.8% year-on-year in 3Q24, with a total of 533,960 units sold [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - Zeekr is valued at 0.7x the revised FY25 core revenue, implying a valuation of US$8.3 billion [2]. - Geely's other businesses are valued at 12x FY25E P/E, supporting the overall target price increase [2][9]. Earnings Revision - Revenue estimates for FY25E have been raised to RMB276.93 billion, reflecting a 5.8% increase from previous estimates [7][8]. - The gross profit for FY25E is projected at RMB43.08 billion, with a gross margin of 15.6% [7][8].

Inflation Trends - The October CPI inflation rate remained stable month-on-month, with a slight increase from 0.18% to 0.24%, aligning with market expectations of 0.21%[1] - Year-on-year CPI growth rebounded from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October, primarily due to base effects[1] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline narrowing from 6.9% to 4.8%, while gasoline prices decreased by 0.9% month-on-month[1] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI month-on-month growth slightly decreased from 0.31% to 0.28%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%[2] - Rent inflation showed a minor rebound, with the month-on-month growth of rent increasing from 0.2% to 0.4%[2] - Super core service prices, excluding rent, experienced a slowdown, with significant declines in auto insurance and education services[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts, potentially lowering rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points next year, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decrease from 4.2% at the end of this year to 4% by the end of next year[3] Long-term Inflation Uncertainty - Long-term inflation uncertainty is increasing, with Trump's policy plans potentially raising inflation levels and instability[3] - Demand stimulation from tax cuts and deregulation, along with tariffs raising goods prices, could contribute to inflationary pressures[3] - The labor market slowdown may lead to a decrease in core service inflation, suggesting a potential gradual decline in inflation over the next two quarters[3]

点击蓝字 关注我们 招商银行全资附属机构 2024年双十一收官，公司两大核心品牌可复美与可丽金线上增速靓丽。双十一期间（10月8日至11月11 日），可复美与可丽金的线上全渠道GMV分别同比增长超80%和超150%，较今年"618"均有提速。可复美和 可丽金在抖音平台爆发式增长，双十一期间分别同比增长超100%和超500%。根据《天下网商》联合天猫发 布的品牌成交排行榜（10月21日至11月11日），可复美在天猫快消品牌销售榜名列第14，护肤品牌销售榜名 列第12，在国货品牌排名第三。可复美在抖音电商双十一大促护肤品牌总榜中名列第四，国货品牌第三。 双十一大促于10月拉开序幕，可复美和可丽金增长强劲。2024年各大平台双十一大促较往年均有所提前，普 遍从10月中上旬开启，较2023年提前约10天。叠加双十一大促开启以及错期影响，据魔镜数据库统计， 10M24可复美线上GMV同比强劲增长90%，其中天猫淘宝和抖音平台GMV分别同比增长83%和120%。可复 美在抖音平台进行成功的营销投入，如搭建抖音自播间矩阵，因此驱动可复美在抖音平台快速增长。 可复美胶原棒延续高增长，新品表现亮眼。经典产品可复美重组胶原蛋白敷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 66.15, representing a potential upside of 29.2% from the current price of HKD 51.20 [4][21]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong online sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with its two main brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, achieving GMV growth rates of over 80% and over 150% respectively compared to the previous year [2]. - The report highlights the successful marketing strategies on platforms like Douyin, which have significantly boosted sales, particularly for Kefu Mei, which saw a GMV increase of 120% on Douyin [2]. - The introduction of new products has also contributed to growth, with Kefu Mei's collagen stick and Keli Jin's new cream series driving substantial sales increases [2]. Financial Performance - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5,099 million in FY24E to RMB 9,187 million in FY26E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33.6% [3][22]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,971 million in FY24E to RMB 3,130 million in FY26E, indicating a strong profitability trajectory [3][22]. - The company maintains a healthy net debt ratio, with a forecasted net debt ratio of -75.3% by FY26E, indicating a strong balance sheet [3]. Sales Growth and Market Position - Kefu Mei ranked 12th in the Tmall fast-moving consumer goods sales ranking and 4th in the skincare brand ranking during the Double Eleven event, showcasing its competitive position in the market [2][8]. - Keli Jin's new product launches have resulted in a GMV increase of 109% year-on-year, with significant contributions from its new cream and eye cream products [2]. - The report notes that the overall skincare category in e-commerce is experiencing robust growth, with Kefu Mei and Keli Jin leading the charge [12][13]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for FY24-26 have been slightly adjusted upwards, with revenue and profit estimates reflecting the strong sales momentum and successful product launches [16][20]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin will remain stable, with a projected gross margin of 82.20% in FY24E [16][20]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HKD 66.15 corresponds to a 25x adjusted P/E ratio for FY25E and a 20x adjusted P/E ratio for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][18]. - The DCF analysis suggests a strong intrinsic value for the company, with a calculated equity value of HKD 68.02 million [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$525.0, representing a 30% upside from the current price of HK$403.80 [3][7]. Core Insights - Tencent's total revenue for 3Q24 increased by 8% YoY to RMB167.2 billion, aligning with consensus estimates. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 19% YoY to RMB61.3 billion, also in line with expectations. The company anticipates continued earnings growth in 4Q24, driven by accelerating game revenue and resilient marketing performance [1][2]. - Game revenue growth accelerated in the second half of 2024, with a 13% YoY increase to RMB51.8 billion in 3Q24. Domestic game revenue rose by 14% YoY, primarily due to strong performance from DnF Mobile, while international game revenue grew by 9% YoY [1][2]. - Marketing services revenue showed solid momentum, increasing by 17% YoY to RMB30.0 billion in 3Q24, driven by strong demand for Video Accounts, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search [1][2]. - The Fintech and Business Services (FBS) segment experienced a 2% YoY revenue growth to RMB53.1 billion in 3Q24, reflecting a deceleration due to soft consumption sentiment [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, Tencent's revenue is projected to reach RMB655.999 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB224.394 billion and an adjusted EPS of RMB23.17 [2][4][17]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 48.1% in FY23A to 53.2% in FY24E, with operating margin increasing from 32.0% to 32.8% [2][4][17]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY25E is RMB241.929 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB24.98 [2][4][17]. Valuation Breakdown - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$525.0 includes valuations for various segments: HK$202.9 for online games, HK$30.4 for SNS, HK$102.6 for marketing services, HK$84.5 for fintech, HK$22.6 for cloud, and HK$68.8 for strategic investments [7][8][9][10][11]. - The valuation reflects Tencent's strong market position and growth potential across its diverse business segments [7][8][9][10][11]. Peer Comparison - Tencent's valuation metrics are competitive within the online games and advertising sectors, with an average PE of 18x for online games and 19x for marketing services compared to its peers [13][14]. - The report highlights Tencent's leadership in the digital payment market and its potential for growth in fintech, supported by a premium valuation compared to industry averages [10][14].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of US$276.02, down from the previous target price of US$288.93, indicating a potential upside of 42.5% from the current price of US$193.64 [3][21]. Core Insights - BeiGene reported strong product sales of US$993 million in 3Q24, representing an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 67% year-over-year increase. Total product sales for the first nine months of 2024 reached US$2.66 billion, accounting for 69% of the previous full-year estimate [1][2]. - The company achieved non-GAAP profitability with a gross profit margin of 82.8% in 3Q24, despite a decrease from 85.0% in 2Q24 due to accelerated depreciation expenses. The SG&A ratio improved to 46% from 48% in the previous quarter [1][2]. - BeiGene's zanubrutinib (Zanu) sales increased by 8% quarter-over-quarter and 93% year-over-year to US$690 million in 3Q24, capturing approximately 25% of the global BTK inhibitor market [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24E is projected at US$3.835 billion, with a net profit expected to improve to US$52 million in FY25E, compared to a net loss of US$603 million in FY24E [14][15]. - Gross profit is estimated at US$3.207 billion for FY24E, with a gross margin of 83.63% [16][19]. Product Development - BeiGene is advancing multiple clinical trials, including a Phase 3 study of sonrotoclax combined with zanubrutinib for first-line CLL, with full enrollment expected by 1Q25 [1][2]. - The company is also expanding cohorts for BGB-16673 in R/R CLL and plans to initiate a Phase 3 study for BTK CDAC in R/R CLL in 1H25 [1][2]. Market Position - Zanu continues to outperform competitors, with significant market share gains in the BTK inhibitor market, supported by strong sales growth in both the US and EU [1][2]. - The company is positioned to break even in FY25E, driven by strong sales momentum and improving operating margins [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **BUY** rating for FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK) with a new target price of **HK$4.38**, representing a **40% upside** from the current price of HK$3.14 [2][16] Core View - The report is optimistic about FIT Hon Teng's growth prospects, driven by strong **3-year guidance (2025-27)** with a **20% revenue CAGR** and **GPM/OPM targets of 22%/8% by FY27E** [2] - Key growth drivers include **AI server/networking** (GB200 ramp-up, product portfolio expansion), **Auto-Kabel Group integration**, and **AirPods production capacity expansion** in India [2] - The company's **3Q24 results** were in-line with expectations, showing **accelerated margin recovery** with **GPM at 21.7%** and **OPM at 8.2%**, despite weakness in the EV segment [3] Financial Performance - For **FY24E**, the report estimates **revenue growth of 9% YoY** and **net profit growth of 43% YoY**, driven by **high single-digit revenue growth** and **GPM of 20%+** [3] - The company's **FY25-27E guidance** includes a **20% revenue CAGR**, with **GPM/OPM targets of 22%/8%**, supported by growth in **AI server, mobility, and audio products** [4] - **FY25E revenue** is projected at **US$5,896 million**, with **net profit of US$308.1 million**, representing a **67.2% YoY growth** [6] Valuation - The stock is trading at **9.3x/7.1x FY25/26E P/E**, which is considered attractive given the **67%/31% EPS growth** projected for FY25/26E [5] - The new target price of **HK$4.38** is based on a **13x FY25E P/E**, reflecting confidence in the company's **"3+3 Strategy"** and **profitability recovery** [16] Growth Drivers - **AI Server/Networking**: FIT Hon Teng is expected to benefit from **GB200 AI server component orders**, with **power busbar and CDU liquid cooling connectors** starting delivery in **4Q24E** [4] - **Auto-Kabel Integration**: The integration of Auto-Kabel is expected to close soon, contributing **meaningful revenue in FY25E** [4] - **AirPods Production**: The first production line in India is on track for **mass production in early FY25E**, with a second line to begin construction in **1H25E** [4] Revenue Breakdown - **Networking revenue** is expected to grow **59% YoY in FY24E**, driven by **AI server and traditional server growth** [11] - **Mobility revenue** is projected to grow **56% YoY in FY24E**, supported by **EV business and Voltaira contributions** [11] - **AirPods revenue** is expected to reach **US$591.6 million in FY25E**, growing significantly from **US$233.75 million in FY24E** [11] Scenario Analysis - The report provides a **bull, base, and bear scenario** for FIT's **AI server revenue in 2025**, with **total NVDA AI server revenue** ranging from **US$238.3 million (bear)** to **US$962.6 million (bull)** [13][14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in stock prices over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The overall GMV growth during the Double Eleven period (October 14 - November 11) was 11.4%, which is better than the previously expected low single-digit growth, suggesting that Q4 e-commerce GMV growth may exceed market expectations [1][2]. - The competition in live-streaming e-commerce continues to weaken, with platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo still gaining market share, while JD.com is lagging behind [2]. - Taobao and Tmall's user-centric strategy has proven effective, with significant growth in 88VIP membership and brand performance during the Double Eleven period [3]. - JD.com has successfully tapped into the demand for home appliance upgrades, with a notable increase in user numbers and sales during the shopping festival [4]. - Pinduoduo continues to solidify its low-price strategy while expanding into higher-priced categories, showing strong performance in various product segments [4]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Major e-commerce platforms recorded varying GMV growth rates during the Double Eleven period, with Douyin at 18.8%, Pinduoduo at 15.8%, Tmall at 10.2%, and JD.com at 7.0%, indicating a trend towards industry average growth [2][6]. - The overall trend shows that live-streaming platforms are aligning more closely with the industry growth rate, reflecting a maturing market [2]. Taobao and Tmall - Taobao and Tmall have seen a significant increase in their core user base, with 88VIP membership orders growing over 50% year-on-year, and 589 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales during the Double Eleven period, a 46.5% increase [3]. JD.com - JD.com reported over 20% growth in shopping users and a 3.8 times increase in live-streaming sales orders, with over 90% of rural consumers participating in the appliance upgrade program [4]. Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's strategy of enhancing low-price offerings while expanding into higher-value categories has resulted in a strong performance, particularly in fresh food and beauty products [4].