特朗普曾在7月初暗示，关税将适用于各类铜产品，由矿场与冶炼厂生产的电解铜，到电线及其他制成 品。但白宫发布最新公告中，表示该关税将自本周五起仅适用于铜管、铜管件及其他半成品铜制品，以 及大量使用铜来制造产品，包括电缆与电气元件。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34 Z | | 00505 | 兴业合金 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.720 | 301.24亿 | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | -2.51% | 67.900 | 269.16亿 | | 01636 | 中国金属利用 | -2.20% | 0.890 | 2666.8 | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | -1.75% | 3.930 | 477.12亿 | 港股市场铜概念股集体下跌，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20%, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The recent tariff policy may lead to a re-export of the large quantities of copper that have been shipped to the U.S. in recent months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a historic drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a drop of 4.48%, trading at 21.3 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) decreased by 4.09%, with a price of 15.94 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) fell by 3.48%, priced at 9.15 HKD [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - The tariff is expected to affect the recent influx of copper into the U.S., which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs caused U.S. copper prices to rise significantly compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper shipments to the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, leading to a record high in U.S. copper prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the copper smelting industry in China, highlighting production capacity, profitability challenges, and potential policy changes aimed at regulating the industry [2][5][6]. Production - In 2024, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, accounting for 59% of global primary electrolytic copper production, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% since 2004 [3]. - The top ten companies in the copper smelting sector hold approximately 76% of the market share, with major producers including Jiangxi Copper (2.29 million tons), Tongling Nonferrous (1.77 million tons), and Jinchuan Group (1.33 million tons) [3]. Expansion - As of June 2025, the smelting operating rate is around 86%, with 2.98 million tons of production capacity yet to be put into operation. The annualized capacity for June 2025 is estimated at 15.88 million tons [4]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC/RC) has dropped significantly, with the spot price as of July 18, 2025, at -$43.2 per ton, marking a historical low. The long-term processing fee has also fallen to $0 per ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [5]. - If sulfuric acid prices decline further, smelting companies may face potential losses due to the lack of processing fee income [5]. Policy Implications - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry could limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations. This may alleviate the current overcapacity and improve future profitability for smelting companies, especially as downstream consumption continues to grow due to sectors like renewable energy and grid upgrades [6].

会十期货执图 铜加工费跌至近20年低位，冶炼减产传导至精铜供给，铜价支撑逻辑全梳理！一图看懂TC/RC对铜价的影响。 看期货热点,到 2 金十期货 铜加工费(TC/RC)的波动 对铜价有何影响? 01. 什么是铜加工费(TC/RC) ? TC/RC定义 TC (粗炼费) > 铜精矿→粗铜的加工费 单位:美元/吨铜精矿 RC (精炼费) · 粗铜→阴极铜(纯度99.99%) 的精炼费 单位:美分/磅精铜 本质:矿商向冶炼厂支付的加工报酬,费用高低反映铜矿供需关系。 定价机制 核心公式 铜精矿售价 = LME铜价 - TC/RC费用 例：LME铜价9.000/吨，TC/RC=60/6美分 → 铜精矿售价$8,940/吨。 费用方向：矿山为卖方,治炼厂为买方,费用由卖方向买方支付。 02.费用如何决定? 供需博弈 辑 4 铜矿供不应求 → TC/RC下跌 (矿商掌握主动权) 2025年铜精矿长单加工费(TC/RC) : = = Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂: 2025年6月谈判结果为0美元/千吨及0美分 /磅(约合人民币0元/吨)。 Antofagasta 与江西铜业： 2024年12月确定的价格为21.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost demand for copper and aluminum, leading to a surge in related sectors such as hydropower, cement, infrastructure, and steel [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector in the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with a rise of 3.90% on July 21, 2023, and continued gains of 3.82% the following day [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper, experienced notable price increases, with China Aluminum rising 6.33% to 6.05 HKD and Jiangxi Copper increasing 5.09% to 16.10 HKD [1] Group 2: Project Impact - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and is expected to create significant demand for construction materials, particularly in the cement and steel industries during the construction phase [3][7] - The project will also drive demand for copper and aluminum due to the need for equipment and transmission cables, with an anticipated annual power generation exceeding 300 billion kWh [7][9] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is projected to outperform the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.2% from early 2025 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported by the ongoing transition in the economy, with copper prices being influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated increase in demand from the renewable energy sector [5][6][7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies directly benefiting from the hydropower project, such as those involved in cable and special copper material manufacturing [9] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in regions with abundant hydropower resources, particularly in electrolytic aluminum and copper smelting projects, as well as in supporting electric grid companies [9]

受益的行业非常多，这个要分短期和中长期，因为时间跨度很长，预期是10-15年，但按照中国的速 度，只要资金到位，10年内就完工并非不可能。 短期来看，最开始就是水泥建材这些先行一步，考虑到水泥有个运输半径问题，因此最大龙头是本地水 泥厂的西藏天路(600326.SH)，被巨量封住一字，再是离基地项目400公里的港股华新水泥(06655)，大涨 超85%。本地产能肯定是不够的，需要从其它地区引进，其它有华润建材科技(01313)、中国建材 (03323)、金隅集团(02009)、中国建材(03323)、海螺水泥(00914)均涨超10%。 【解剖大盘】 周末没啥利空，市场主要担心的无非是日本的参议院选举，最新情况是由自民党和公明党组成的执政联 盟丧失参议院过半数议席。但靴子落地后日元并未出现明显波动，市场预期石破茂依旧可以继续履行职 责，从而稳定局面。因此港股继续跳空上行，今天涨0.68%。 扰动市场的巨头内卷也开始收敛，7月18日，根据央视新闻，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三 家平台企业，号召理性参与竞争。美团-W(03690)、京东集团(09618)、阿里巴巴(09988)均涨幅超2%。 而爆炸性题材 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto has announced that the shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project is expected to commence earlier than planned, with the first shipment anticipated around November 2025, and the projected shipment volume for 2025 is estimated to be between 500,000 to 1,000,000 tons [1] Production Guidance - The company maintains its production guidance for 2025, with Pilbara iron ore shipments expected to remain at the lower end of the annual guidance [1] - Bauxite production is projected to be at the higher end of the annual guidance, while copper production is also expected to reach the higher end of its annual guidance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion from Beijing Deheng Law Firm confirms that Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.'s differentiated dividend distribution plan complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [6]. Group 1: Reasons for Differentiated Dividend - The company held a board meeting on February 19, 2024, approving a share repurchase plan, which was completed by May 17, 2024, with a total of 10,441,768 A-shares repurchased [2][4]. Group 2: Differentiated Dividend Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7 RMB (including tax) for every 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 2,075,247,405 shares, excluding the repurchased shares [4][5]. - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to 1,445,363,945.90 RMB [5]. Group 3: Calculation Basis for Differentiated Dividend - The reference price for the ex-dividend (ex-rights) calculation is determined by the formula: (previous closing price - cash dividend) [5]. - The actual ex-rights reference price calculated is approximately 21.49 RMB per share, with a minimal impact of less than 1% on the stock price due to the differentiated dividend [5]. Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that the differentiated dividend distribution is in accordance with the Company Law, Securities Law, and other relevant regulations, and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [6].