Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities reports that Tencent Holdings (00700) demonstrates stable performance with significant growth potential, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI Agent empowerment, which are not included in current profit forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 188.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 are 259.3 billion yuan, 297.9 billion yuan, and 337.4 billion yuan, with an upward adjustment of 1% for each year [1] - For Q3 2025, the Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be 73.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 66.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 12%, with a net profit margin of 35.4% [1] Business Segments - The gaming business is performing well, with long-standing games showing strong results, particularly "Delta Operation" [1] - The financial technology sector is expected to maintain double-digit growth [1] - The network advertising segment is anticipated to benefit from the release of advertising inventory and AI advancements [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][26]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 1888 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The growth is driven by the release of advertising inventory and AI in the advertising sector, strong performance in gaming, and double-digit growth in the fintech business [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Delta Force," with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets. The marketing services segment is also projected to grow rapidly, benefiting from AI enhancements and increased advertising opportunities [5][21]. - The fintech and enterprise services segment is expected to grow by 10%, primarily driven by payment services and the expansion of e-commerce commissions through WeChat [21][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q3 2025, Tencent's total revenue is projected to be 1888 billion yuan, with a breakdown of: - Gaming revenue at 603 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue at 357 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year - Fintech and enterprise services revenue at 584 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [4][5][21]. Profitability Metrics - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to reach 735 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 667 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% growth. The Non-IFRS net profit margin is projected at 35.4% [4][8][29]. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: The gaming segment is expected to see a 16% increase in revenue, driven by the success of "Delta Force" and stable growth from existing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][19]. - **Marketing Services**: The marketing services segment is anticipated to grow by 19%, supported by AI-driven enhancements and increased advertising opportunities across platforms like WeChat [5][16]. - **Fintech and Enterprise Services**: This segment is projected to grow by 10%, with significant contributions from payment services and the expansion of WeChat's e-commerce capabilities [21][23]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that Tencent has substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI integration, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. The expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2593 billion yuan, 2979 billion yuan, and 3374 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward adjustment of 1% for each year [23][26].

Core Insights - Tencent's content platform, Penguin Account, has significant monetization potential beyond QQ and WeChat [1] - The platform employs a unique traffic distribution model that amplifies exposure and revenue opportunities [2][4] - The current environment presents a favorable entry point for content creators seeking monetization [13] Project Analysis - The Penguin Account's distribution strategy allows content to be shared across multiple Tencent platforms, including Tencent News, QQ Browser, Tencent Video, and others, enhancing visibility [2] - This "one source, multiple uses" model results in an eightfold increase in exposure and revenue opportunities [4] Operational Steps - Step 1: Account registration can be completed via mobile or PC through the Penguin Account app or website [6] - Step 2: Configure backend permissions to activate all available options, which directly impact revenue calculations [8][9] - Step 3: Content production can be in the form of images or short videos, with original content receiving higher weight [10] - Step 4: After processing, content is published, triggering the automatic distribution process across multiple channels [12] Summary - The Penguin Account is currently in a supportive phase by Tencent, with ample traffic and a clear revenue model, making it an attractive option for new content creators [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advancements in AI technology, particularly in video generation and its potential impact on the film and content creation industry, as showcased by Kuaishou's KlingAI at the MIPCOM event [1][2] - The China Galaxy Securities report indicates that major players in the AI industry are making progress in video generation, reasoning capabilities, architectural innovation, and service accessibility, marking a critical transition from technological breakthroughs to large-scale applications [1] - The performance improvement of AI models alongside decreasing usage costs is expected to accelerate industry penetration, with AI applications beginning to show transformative effects across various sectors [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Game and Cultural Media Index consists of 50 listed companies involved in gaming, film, broadcasting, marketing, publishing, education, and cultural performances, reflecting the overall performance of the gaming and cultural media theme in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Game and Cultural Media Index include Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, and others, collectively accounting for 56.63% of the index [2]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 当前市场环境下 ， 恒生科技股 （ 如腾讯 、 阿里巴巴 ） 与 " 老登股 " （ 如中国神华 、 美的集团 ） 的分化趋势愈发显著 。 科技股受益于AI 商业化加速 、 估值修复预期及全球流动性宽松 ， 而 " 老登股 " 则依托低估值 、 稳定现金流和防御性特征 ， 在传统行业中维持基本盘 。 从核心竞争力 、 护城河到未来增长逻辑 ， 两者代表了不同经济周期下的投资逻辑 ： 科技股聚焦技术驱动与长期景气度提升 ， 传统股则依赖资 源禀赋与行业稳定性 。 以下将从多维度对比分析其投资价值与后市潜力 。 一 、 恒生科技股 （ 腾讯 、 阿里巴巴 ） 核心竞争力与护城河 ： 1. 腾讯 ： （ 1 ） 社交生态垄断 ： 微信月活超13亿 ， 形成 " 支付-内容-小程序-游戏 " 闭环 ， 叠加视频号广告加载率提升至6% ， 商业化变现能力持 续增强 。 （ 2 ） AI技术落地 ： 混元大模型3.0精度提升3倍 ， 适配国产芯片降低算力成本 ...

智通财经10月17日讯（编辑 胡家荣）港股自本月初以来持续调整，截至发稿，恒生指数和科技指数月内累计跌幅分别为4.99%、9.53%。 注：恒生指数自月初以来的表现 注：科技指数自月初以来的表现 值得注意的是，港股卖空交易表现活跃，具体来看，从2025年10月2日到10月13日，总卖空成交量有明显的上升，而从10月13日到10月16日，总卖空成交量 略有下降。 10月13日的港股卖空成交金额达到780亿港元，创下自2025年4月10日以来的新高。 腾讯和阿里的卖空情况表现跌宕起伏 以市场较为关注的科技股为例，腾讯控股(00700.HK)的卖空股数由月初277.64万股一度攀升至594.50万股，16日回落至197.03万股；对应卖空金额同步波 动，月初为18.84亿港元，峰值达37.79亿港元，16日降至12.28亿港元。 注：腾讯控股的卖空股数 | 注：阿里巴巴的卖空金额 | | --- | 阿里巴巴也出现类似的表现。该公司的卖空股数从月初1532.29万股一度冲高至3919.38万股，16日回落至1265.60万股；卖空金额也跟随波动，月初28.12亿港 元，峰值62.89亿港元，16日降至20.42亿港 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Technology sector is in the early stage of a macro liquidity recovery and an AI technology cycle, presenting high mid-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - The current fundamentals of Hang Seng Technology benefit from the explosion in application and content driven by new technological changes, with the AI technology cycle at its starting point [2] - The long-term logic involves competition for user numbers and engagement in a diminishing traffic dividend environment, which tests organizational capabilities [2] - High-quality companies are showing strong shareholder return capabilities post traffic dividend decline, with a focus on tracking EPS changes and policies, particularly in the consumer sector [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology sector is currently influenced by the Federal Reserve's transition to a liquidity easing phase, following the fastest and most extensive rate hikes since the 1980s [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for Hang Seng Technology is at the 34th percentile of the past five years [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on AI-related sectors, particularly those likely to achieve performance realization first [3] - The AI hardware and computing power supply chain is expected to maintain high prosperity due to accelerated capital expenditure from global major companies [3] - The software application and content ecosystem are in the early stages of AI empowerment, with optimism for overseas software performance and other industry advancements [3] Group 5 - The e-commerce, local life, and advertising technology sectors are performing steadily under policy stimulus and operational efficiency improvements [3] - The acceleration of smart driving and mobility scenarios is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the industry [3] Group 6 - Recommended companies for investment include Tencent Holdings as a preferred choice, Alibaba and Baidu as mid-term elastic stocks, and Lenovo, Yueda Group, Trip.com, and Sunny Optical as stable slow-growth options [3] - Elastic stocks include Kuaishou, Horizon Robotics, Kingdee International, and Xpeng Motors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Technology sector is in the early stage of a macro liquidity recovery and an AI technology cycle, presenting high mid-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - The current fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology sector benefit from the explosion in application and content driven by new technological changes, currently at the starting point of the AI technology cycle [2] - The long-term logic involves competition for user numbers and engagement in a market where traffic dividends are gradually diminishing, testing organizational capabilities [2] - High shareholder return capabilities are evident among quality companies following the decline of traffic dividends, with a focus on tracking EPS changes and policies, particularly in the consumer sector [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology sector is influenced by the Federal Reserve's transition to a liquidity easing phase since September, following the fastest and most extensive rate hikes since the 1980s [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Hang Seng Technology sector is at the 34th percentile of the past five years [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on AI-related sectors, particularly those likely to achieve performance realization first, benefiting from accelerated capital expenditure by global companies [3] - The software application and content ecosystem is in the early stages of AI empowerment, with optimism for overseas software performance and other industry advancements [3] - The e-commerce, local life, and advertising technology sectors are performing steadily under policy stimulus and operational efficiency improvements [3] - Intelligent driving and mobility scenarios are accelerating, expected to become new growth drivers for the industry [3] Group 5 - Recommended companies for high performance certainty and leading AI technology and content ecosystem layouts include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, and Baidu [3] - Mid-term elastic stocks include Lenovo Group, China Literature, Trip.com, and Sunny Optical [3] - Elastic stocks also include Kuaishou, Horizon Robotics, Kingdee International, and Xpeng Motors [4]

Group 1 - The 2025 World VR Industry Conference will be held in Nanchang from October 19 to 20, focusing on major tech companies like Huawei, Apple, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and Lenovo, as well as leading AR glasses innovators such as XREAL and Rokid, showcasing the latest product technologies and innovative application scenarios [1] - As of October 17, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Online Consumption Theme Index (931481) has decreased by 1.68%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks; Kid King (301078) led with a rise of 2.36%, while Donghua Software (002065) fell by 4.17% [1] - The Online Consumption ETF (159793) has dropped by 2.02%, with the latest price at 1.07 yuan, but has seen a cumulative increase of 2.54% since the beginning of October 2025 [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Online Consumption Theme Index tracks 50 listed companies involved in online shopping, digital entertainment, online education, and telemedicine, reflecting the overall performance of online consumption theme stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Online Consumption Theme Index include Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with the top ten stocks accounting for 55.76% of the index [2] - The weight and performance of key stocks in the index show declines, with Tencent Holdings down by 1.05% and Alibaba-W down by 2.73%, indicating a challenging market environment for these major players [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on October 17, with the technology sector leading the decline, particularly the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) which fell approximately 2.4% as of 10:12 AM, nearing its 60-day moving average support level [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) recorded a trading volume exceeding 270 million yuan, with all constituent stocks showing negative performance, including notable declines in ZTE Corporation, InnoCare Pharma, and Horizon Robotics [1] - Since July, the ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for four months, approaching a historical high in product shares [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions indicate that the sustained inflow of southbound funds is expected to support the upward movement of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Guotai Junan believes that with institutional forces driving the market, there is still potential for incremental southbound funds in the fourth quarter, which may continue to boost the Hong Kong market [1] - China Merchants Securities also notes that the inflow of southbound funds is ongoing and is likely to provide continued support [1] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which includes mainland companies engaged in technology business and listed in Hong Kong [1] - The top ten holdings of the ETF include major technology companies such as SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi Group-W [1] - For ordinary investors, direct investment in multiple Hong Kong technology stocks can be complex and have high entry barriers; the ETF allows for a simplified investment in a basket of quality Hong Kong technology companies [1]