Core Viewpoint - The rising geopolitical risks in Venezuela are supporting oil transportation demand during the off-peak season, as indicated by Changjiang Securities' research report [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongyuan Shipping (中远海能) shares have increased by 3.62%, reaching HKD 10.02, with a trading volume of HKD 70.86 million [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Venezuela's oil exports are expected to be 700,000 barrels per day in 2024, accounting for 1.8% of global oil exports, primarily to China and the United States [1][2]. - The recent U.S. actions against Venezuela have temporarily halted its oil exports, although there has been no significant damage to the state-owned oil company PDVSA's facilities [1][2]. - The disruption in Venezuelan exports may lead to tighter heavy oil supply in China and the U.S., prompting increased imports of heavy crude oil from Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, thereby raising compliant oil transportation demand [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Venezuela is characterized as a country with high reserves but low production, holding 19% of global oil reserves while contributing only 1.3% to global production [1][2]. - Former President Trump has indicated a strong intervention in Venezuela's oil industry, which could potentially increase the demand for Venezuelan oil along long-distance routes to the Far East, reshaping trade patterns [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the stock price of China Merchants Energy (01138) will experience absolute growth in the next 30 days due to recent price corrections making its short-term valuation more attractive [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has recently undergone a correction, enhancing its short-term valuation appeal [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Buy" rating to China Merchants Energy with a target price of HKD 13.2 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is an increasing demand for legitimate oil tankers amid geopolitical developments [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates the probability of this scenario occurring to be around 70% to 80%, indicating it is "highly likely" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (600026)(01138) is expected to experience absolute price appreciation within the next 30 days due to recent price corrections making its short-term valuation more attractive [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The stock has recently undergone a correction, enhancing its short-term valuation appeal [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Buy" rating to China Merchants Energy with a target price of HKD 13.2 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - There is an increasing demand for legitimate oil tankers driven by geopolitical dynamics [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates the probability of this scenario occurring to be around 70% to 80%, indicating it is "highly likely" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (中远海能) will experience absolute growth in the next 30 days, with a probability of 70% to 80% or "very likely" [1] Summary by Category - **Stock Performance**: The stock has recently undergone a correction, making its short-term valuation more attractive [1] - **Market Demand**: There is an increasing demand for legitimate oil tankers due to geopolitical dynamics [1] - **Rating and Target Price**: Morgan Stanley has assigned an "Overweight" rating to China Merchants Energy Shipping and set a target price of HKD 13.2 [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600026 | 說明 | A股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,169,220,839 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 4,169,220,839 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,169,220,839 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 4,169,220,839 | | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela are expected to support oil transportation during the off-peak season, with a recommendation for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [6][21] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is anticipated to benefit the transportation sector, particularly in three key areas: companies with significant dollar-denominated debt will gain from exchange rate benefits, increased purchasing power will boost outbound tourism and consumption, and lower dollar-denominated costs will improve profitability [7][35][42] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks and Oil Transportation - The U.S. has implemented significant sanctions against Venezuela, leading to a temporary halt in its oil exports, which are projected to be 700,000 barrels per day in 2024, accounting for 1.8% of global oil exports [6][21] - The sanctions may tighten heavy oil supply for China and the U.S., prompting increased imports from Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, thus raising compliant oil transportation demand [6][21] Renminbi Appreciation and Opportunities in Transportation - As of January 2, 2026, the Renminbi has appreciated by 1.4% against the U.S. dollar since December 2025, with expectations for continued appreciation due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][30][32] - The report categorizes beneficiaries into three tiers: companies with large dollar debts benefiting from exchange rate gains, increased outbound tourism boosting international flight revenues, and reduced costs for aviation fuel leading to improved profitability [7][35][42] Travel Demand and Market Performance - During the New Year holiday, domestic passenger traffic saw a 10% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic rose by 9% [8][57] - The average domestic passenger load factor improved by 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors increased by 4.8 percentage points [8][63] Logistics and Freight Trends - The volume of express deliveries has shown a slight decline, with a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in the number of packages collected [9] - Despite the decline in express delivery growth, the logistics sector is expected to see a shift towards leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express due to a restructuring of the e-commerce ecosystem [9]

Summary of Conference Call on Venezuelan Oil Market Impact Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of the recent political turmoil in Venezuela on the oil transportation market and the broader implications for the global oil supply chain [2][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Venezuelan Oil Supply Chain Changes**: The U.S. military action on January 3, which involved the capture of Venezuelan President Guaido's wife, has significant implications for the oil supply chain, particularly affecting the cruise market [2]. - **Venezuela's Oil Reserves**: Venezuela holds approximately 20% of the world's known oil reserves, despite current production being only about 30% of its historical peak [3][4]. - **Potential for Increased Production**: If sanctions are lifted, international capital and technology could flow into Venezuela, potentially restoring its oil production capacity and significantly increasing global compliant oil supply [3][4]. - **Short-term vs Long-term Effects**: In the short term, the political situation may lead to export disruptions and inventory build-up, pushing demand towards other compliant markets. In the long term, U.S. companies' involvement could enhance Venezuela's oil production, altering the global energy supply landscape [4][6]. - **Impact on Global Oil Prices**: The potential increase in compliant oil supply from Venezuela could lead to an oversupply in the global market, particularly in the Atlantic basin, which may depress short-term oil prices [5][6]. - **Shipping Requirements**: If Venezuela's production returns to 2008 levels, compliant oil exports could rise from 800,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, necessitating 140 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for transportation, which would represent 20% of global compliant shipping capacity [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: The instability in Iran and other geopolitical factors may shift the dynamics of black oil trade, potentially benefiting compliant markets [8]. - **VLCC Freight Rates**: Recent fluctuations in VLCC freight rates have been noted, with a long-term outlook remaining positive as rental rates are expected to stabilize above $60,000 per day [8]. - **Cruise Market Outlook**: The anticipated increase in compliant oil supply from Venezuela could significantly benefit the cruise market, especially in the latter half of 2025, as demand remains high and supply tightens [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Venezuelan oil market and its implications for the global oil transportation industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly in light of recent developments in Venezuela and the increase in new ship prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Venezuela's political changes are expected to benefit compliant tanker markets, with a potential increase in oil exports leading to higher demand for Aframax tankers and VLCCs [3][4]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase reported, particularly in gas carriers which rose by 1% [3]. - The report highlights a significant drop in VLCC freight rates, which fell by 36% week-on-week, while the Atlantic market remains relatively stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The report notes that the recent escalation in Venezuela's situation could lead to a 1.4% increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand and a 4.0% increase for Aframax tankers [3][4]. - The average VLCC freight rate was reported at $43,895 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping to $38,690 per day, a decrease of 45% from the previous week [3][4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices have increased by 0.5% to 185.59 points, although they are down 1.85% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. Oil and Product Transport - The LR2-TC1 freight rate increased by 5% to $42,671 per day, supported by tight capacity in previous weeks [3]. - The report indicates a decline in MR average freight rates by 5% to $23,103 per day, with the Atlantic market remaining stable despite the holiday season [3][4]. Air Transport - The report anticipates significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, recommending several airlines for investment [3][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future performance [3][4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with recent data showing a slight decrease in volumes [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors, indicating a positive outlook for both industries [35]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see robust demand growth, driven by increased travel during the New Year holiday, with significant year-on-year increases in both passenger volume and ticket prices. The report suggests a strategic investment during the off-peak season, anticipating a long-term super cycle [3][4]. - In the oil transportation sector, while seasonal price declines are noted, the report emphasizes the potential for future price increases due to ongoing global oil production growth and limited capacity expansion. It recommends a contrarian investment approach during the off-peak period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights a strong increase in travel demand during the New Year holiday, with a 19% year-on-year increase in overall passenger movement from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026. Specifically, civil aviation saw a 13% increase [3][4]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to rise by over 10% year-on-year during the holiday period, despite a projected short-term dip in passenger flow post-holiday [3][4]. - The aviation industry is experiencing high load factors while ticket prices remain at historical lows, suggesting a favorable environment for profitability growth driven by demand recovery and market pricing dynamics [3][4]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report notes that the average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) reached $51,000 in 2025, significantly higher than the $36,000 in 2023-2024, driven by improved capacity utilization and increased oil production from the Middle East and South America [3][4]. - Despite a recent decline in freight rates during the traditional off-peak season, the report maintains a positive outlook for future price increases, supported by ongoing global oil production growth and limited fleet expansion [3][4]. - The report suggests monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly in Venezuela, and recommends increasing positions in companies like COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Shipbuilding Leasing [3][4].

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are Vanke Enterprises (02202), Dongfang Electric (01072), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), with short ratios of 18.64%, 17.51%, and 16.68% respectively [1][2] - The company with the largest increase in short positions is Dongfang Electric (01072), which saw an increase of 2.20% from the previous short ratio [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions include Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050), Tianqi Lithium (09696), and Yuejiang (02432), with decreases of -1.42%, -0.82%, and -0.71% respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that Vanke Enterprises has 411 million shares shorted, while Dongfang Electric has 71.45 million shares, and COSCO Shipping Holdings has 480 million shares shorted [2] - The companies with the largest increases in short positions also include JAKS Resources B (01167) and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), with increases of 0.77% and 0.56% respectively [2] - The companies with the largest decreases in short positions also include Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Sunac China (01918), with decreases of -0.68% and -0.55% respectively [3][4]