Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up over 3%, with a total trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market surge is attributed to three main factors: strong performance of brokerage stocks, significant trading activity in broad-based ETFs, and comments from a former Japanese central bank official opposing early interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity concerns [1] Sector Performance - The optical module sector experienced a strong breakout, with New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang topping the A-share capital inflow rankings. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged 5% with a net subscription of 162 million units [1][6] - The "anti-involution" theme also performed well, with lithium carbonate futures seeing a sudden spike, leading to a 3.48% increase in the Chemical ETF (516020) and a 3.27% rise in the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) [2] Institutional Insights - Investment institutions are optimistic about the A-share market transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market by 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [3][4] - J.P. Morgan highlighted that earnings will be key to the upward momentum of Chinese assets next year, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in the revenue expansion quadrant [4] Key Stocks and ETFs - The top-performing stocks included Lian Te Technology, New Yi Sheng, and Tian Fu Communication, with significant price increases [6][7] - The Chemical ETF (516020) and Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) have seen substantial inflows, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [13][19] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures market saw a dramatic increase, with prices nearing 109,860 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes affecting mining licenses [23] - The storage industry in China is expected to grow significantly over the next 3-5 years, driven by AI and data center demands, which will boost lithium demand [15] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability and dividend capabilities, with a focus on the "anti-involution" and global AI demand cycles [17] - The nonferrous metals sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions, making it a core asset allocation target for the medium to long term [24]

12月23日消息，港股三大指数涨跌不一。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.18%，报25848.99点，恒生科技 指数跌0.42%，国企指数涨0.11%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，京东、联想涨近1%，快手跌超3%，小 米、腾讯跌超1%；风电股涨幅居前，东方电气涨超5%；黄金股延续涨势，山东黄金涨超5%；锂电池板 块涨幅居前，赣锋锂业涨超4%；今日翰思艾泰、轻松健康、诺比侃上市 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 涨跌幅 > | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01072 | 东方电气 | 0 | 25.260 5.34% | | | 00658 | 中国高速传动 | | 1.500 1.35% | | | 00579 | 京能清洁能源 | | 2.360 | 1.29% | | 00916 | 龙源电力 | | 6.770 1.20% | | | 02208 | 全风科技 | | 13.910 0.72% | | 黄金股延续涨势，山东黄金涨超5%。亚洲早盘，现货黄金涨超1%，最高至4490.88美元/盎司，续创历 史新高。摩根大通指出，关税不确定性，叠加ETF与各国央行的强劲需 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown strong performance, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The international gold price closed at $4442.41 per ounce, up 2.41%, while silver closed at $69.01 per ounce, up 2.8% [1] - COMEX silver inventory is approximately 14,000 tons, and London silver market inventory is about 27,000 tons, down about one-third from the peak in 2022, indicating tight supply [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are supported by expectations of global monetary easing and domestic growth stabilization policies, with U.S. inflation data reinforcing these expectations [2] - The copper supply chain is experiencing tightness, as evidenced by a significant drop in processing fees for copper concentrate, reflecting a constrained supply [2] - The aluminum supply chain shows a slight increase in supply but a weakening demand, necessitating attention to inventory levels and seasonal demand impacts [2] Group 3: New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a phase of tight supply and demand, with prices likely to remain high in the short term due to ongoing inventory depletion [3] - Export controls on rare earths have become a strategic tool in the U.S.-China trade conflict, potentially enhancing China's pricing power in the global rare earth market [3] - The long-term outlook for the rare earth sector remains positive, with policy support expected to drive industry value reassessment [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4,465 per ounce, with a significant increase of 2.4% in the previous trading day, marking the largest single-day gain in over a month [1] - The investment demand for gold is expected to drive future price movements, as the negative correlation with long-term U.S. Treasury yields is weakening, indicating a strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are experiencing a positive trend, with LME copper rising by 2.75% and LME aluminum by 2.80%, while Shanghai tin saw a weekly increase of 6.98% [2] - A supply-demand turning point for refined copper is anticipated around 2026, with optimistic economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and resilient copper demand expected from China [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index increasing by 86.57% year-to-date, and the mining ETF (159690) tracking a 96.13% gain [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [2][3] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the non-ferrous mining sector stands at 12.14%, while the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index has an ROE of 10.61% [3] Group 4: Market Movements - On December 23, both precious and industrial metals saw price increases, with Shandong Gold rising over 6%, and other companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten also experiencing gains [4] - The mining ETF (159690) rose by 1.71%, reaching a new high of 1.906 yuan since its listing [4] Group 5: ETF Composition - The mining ETF (159690) closely tracks the non-ferrous mining index, focusing on key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium [5] - The top ten holdings of the ETF include leading companies in the sector, such as Northern Rare Earth, Zijin Mining, and Tianqi Lithium [5]

Group 1 - Gold stocks have strengthened again, with Shandong Gold rising by 5.25% to HKD 38.06, Zhaojin Mining up by 3.72% to HKD 33.48, Lingbao Gold increasing by 3.54% to HKD 19.57, and Chifeng Jilong Gold up by 2.95% to HKD 32.78 [1] - On December 22, COMEX gold prices broke through USD 4450, reaching a new high [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that if the Fed does not continue to lower interest rates next year, it may increase the risk of an economic recession, indicating a potential shift towards a more dovish policy [1] Group 2 - Xinyuan Fund stated that the foundation for a gold bull market remains unchanged, although short-term volatility may increase [2] - If the US core PCE continues to decline, it will solidify expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts in the first half of 2026, with gold prices likely to test the USD 4400 level [2] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chairman by Trump is expected to lean more dovish, alongside expanding US fiscal deficits and high debt levels, which will enhance the long-term value of gold [2]

注：COMEX黄金的表现 智通财经12月23日讯（编辑 胡家荣） 受益于国际金价创历史新高，港股黄金股走强。截至发稿，山东黄金(01787.HK)涨5.25%、招金矿业(01818.HK)涨 3.41%、灵宝黄金(03330.HK)涨3.33%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 38.080 | +1.900 | +5.25% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | 33.380 | +1.100 | +3.41% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 19.530 | +0.630 | +3.33% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 156.400 | +4.500 | +2.96% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 32.740 | +0.900 | +2.83% | | 02489 | 集海资源 | 1.120 | +0.030 | +2.75% | | 00340 | 漳关黄金 | 2.970 | +0.070 | +2.41% | 市场热度的背后，是黄金价格在近 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for gold stocks continues to rise, with Shandong Gold increasing by over 4% [1] - Zhaojin Mining has risen by 3.9%, while Lingbao Gold has increased by 3% [1] - Other companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold, Zijin Mining International, and Zefeng Gold have all seen increases of over 2%, and China Gold International and Tongguan Gold have risen by 1.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks continue to rise, driven by increasing gold prices and favorable market conditions, with significant gains observed in various companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shandong Gold increased by over 4%, Zhaojin Mining by 3.9%, Lingbao Gold by 3%, and several other gold companies also saw gains of over 2% [2] - The spot gold price accelerated its rise, reaching a new historical high of $4,490.88 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 71% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to traders betting on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice in 2026, alongside President Trump's advocacy for a looser monetary policy [1] - Geopolitical risks have further enhanced the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver [1] Group 3: Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs and other banks predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a baseline forecast of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, indicating greater upside risks [1] - ETF investors are beginning to compete with central banks for limited physical supply of gold [1]

消息上，周一纽约时段，现货黄金价格加速上涨，亚洲早盘，现货黄金涨超1%，最高至4490.88美元/盎 司，续创历史新高，年内累涨超71%。分析认为，最新一波上涨源于交易员押注美联储将在2026年降息 两次，美国总统特朗普也公开主张较宽松的货币政策，利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的贵金属提供支 撑。与此同时，地缘政治风险也强化了黄金和白银的避险属性。 港股黄金股继续上涨行情，其中，山东黄金涨超4%，招金矿业涨3.9%，灵宝黄金涨3%，赤峰黄金、紫 金黄金国际、珠峰黄金涨超2%，中国黄金国际、潼关黄金涨1.7%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 37.760 | 4.37% | | 01818 | 招等矿业 | 33.540 | 3.90% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 19.460 | 2.96% | | 02489 | 集海资源 | 1.120 | 2.75% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 32.620 | 2.45% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 155.600 | 2.44% ...