Core Insights - The 2025 Chinese smartphone market has seen a subtle shift in the competitive landscape, with vivo maintaining its lead, followed by Xiaomi and Apple, all surpassing 40 million units in activation volume [1][7]. Market Rankings - Vivo (including iQOO) ranked first with an activation volume of 46.357 million units, holding a market share of 16.77%, despite a slight decline of 2.58% from 2024 [2][8]. - Xiaomi (including REDMI) achieved an activation volume of 45.884 million units, capturing a market share of 16.60%, marking a growth of 5.41% year-on-year, thus surpassing Apple to claim the second position [3][9]. - Apple secured the third position with an activation volume of 45.206 million units and a market share of 16.35%, experiencing a significant growth of 9.34% [3][10]. - OPPO (including OnePlus and realme) ranked fourth with 43.996 million units and a market share of 15.91%, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.63% [4][10]. - Huawei placed fifth with an activation volume of 43.400 million units and a market share of 15.70%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.96% [4][10]. Market Trends - The overall smartphone market in China saw a slight decline in demand, with total shipments around 285 million units, down 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a softening consumer demand [2][8]. - The market is characterized by a "high-end consolidation and mid-range competition," with AI smartphones and foldable screens emerging as key growth areas [4][10]. - In 2025, the shipment volume of AI smartphones reached 118 million units, achieving a penetration rate of over 40% [4][10]. Future Outlook - Industry experts predict a continued slight decline in overall shipments by 2%-3% in 2026, with rising memory chip prices potentially increasing average smartphone prices by 10%-20% [11]. - The focus for leading brands will likely shift towards high-profit segments, intensifying market competition [11]. - Key questions for 2026 include whether vivo can maintain its lead, if Xiaomi can solidify its second position, and whether Apple can sustain its high-end growth trajectory [11].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has announced the launch of the REDMI Turbo 5 Max, which includes a unique five-year battery warranty, setting it apart from competitors who typically offer a two-year warranty for similar high-capacity batteries [1][6][7]. Group 1 - The REDMI Turbo 5 Max is now available for pre-order and will be launched this month, with the first sale offering a free five-year battery warranty [1][6]. - The five-year warranty allows for a free battery replacement if the battery health drops below 80% within that period, which is a significant enhancement compared to the industry standard [7]. - Xiaomi's General Manager, Lu Weibing, highlighted that while other brands are beginning to follow suit, the Turbo 5 Max's offering is particularly generous given its approximately 9000mAh battery capacity [6][7]. Group 2 - The Turbo 5 Max features advanced technologies such as bypass charging and a six-layer charging protection algorithm, which aim to enhance battery longevity and user confidence [1][6]. - The company is addressing consumer concerns regarding battery health deterioration, which is a common issue with high-capacity smartphones [7][8]. - The marketing strategy emphasizes the Turbo 5 Max's strong endurance capabilities, appealing to users who prioritize battery life in their smartphone choices [8].

1月19日晚，小米公司创始人、董事长、首席执行官雷军发文称，Turbo 5 Max，9000mAh 超大容量电 池，迄今最大小米金沙江电池。894Wh/L 小米史上最大能量密度，让高性能尽情释放。权威媒体续航 榜实测，9000mAh大电量，实现比肩 10000mAh续航！Turbo 5 Max 的实力，强得有点离谱。 此前，小米品牌总经理卢伟冰发文宣布，2026全网首个"测到死" 直播——Turbo 5 Max 续航耐力赛，于 20日9点开启、持续"狂测一整天"。Turbo 5 Max将以 9000mAh迎战友商9000mAh，甚至正面硬刚 10000mAh机型。 责任编辑：李昂 1月19日晚，小米公司创始人、董事长、首席执行官雷军发文称，Turbo 5 Max，9000mAh 超大容量电 池，迄今最大小米金沙江电池。894Wh/L 小米史上最大能量密度，让高性能尽情释放。权威媒体续航 榜实测，9000mAh大电量，实现比肩 10000mAh续航！Turbo 5 Max 的实力，强得有点离谱。 此前，小米品牌总经理卢伟冰发文宣布，2026全网首个"测到死" 直播——Turbo 5 Max 续航耐力赛，于 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price is currently in a complex trading environment, with oversold signals and significant market sentiment divergence influencing its trajectory [1]. Technical Analysis - Xiaomi's stock price is hovering around HKD 36.52, significantly below the 10-day (HKD 39.8), 30-day (HKD 41.05), and 60-day (HKD 37.86) moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1]. - Multiple technical indicators are signaling oversold conditions, including the Williams and Stochastic indicators, which suggest a "buy" signal [1]. - A momentum oscillator has shown a "bottom divergence, buy" signal, indicating potential exhaustion of downward momentum and the possibility of a short-term price bottom [1]. - The volatility indicator also suggests "severe overselling, potential bottom formation" [1]. Market Sentiment Integration - There is a stark polarization in market views regarding Xiaomi, reflecting typical characteristics of a price turning point [4]. - Pessimism prevails, with market sentiment indicating that Xiaomi's performance has been disappointing for investors, leading to a lack of confidence [4]. - Conversely, some investors are beginning to adopt a contrarian approach, with reports of buying call options despite the weak stock price, indicating attempts to accumulate shares at perceived market lows [5]. Derivative Market Performance - Recent performance in the derivatives market shows that during unilateral market fluctuations, derivative instruments exhibit significant volatility amplification [6]. - For instance, bearish products gained substantially more than the underlying stock's decline, with UBS and HSBC bear certificates rising by 55% and 52%, respectively, following a 3.86% drop in Xiaomi's stock [6]. Current Derivative Tool Deployment Strategies - For investors anticipating a technical rebound, attention is drawn to call options with exercise prices near key resistance levels, such as the China Bank call option with an exercise price around HKD 40 [8]. - For those expecting continued bearish trends, put options with exercise prices near the first support level of HKD 35.4 are recommended, allowing for potential gains if the stock breaks below this critical support [8][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing a downward trend, with the index dropping to around 26,300 points after reaching 27,000 points [1][2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, and the index needs to stabilize around 26,400 points to avoid further declines, with a potential drop to 25,800 points if it fails to hold [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to monitor the distribution of warrants, particularly the heavy positions around 25,800 points, which is a critical support level [2][4] - The current trading range for the index is suggested to be between 25,800 and 27,500 points for investment deployment [2] Stock Analysis: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has shown weakness, dropping to a low of 35.6 HKD, with concerns about its automotive safety impacting investor sentiment [6][7] - Despite previous strong performance, the stock has fallen below key support levels, leading to cautious investor behavior regarding long-term entry points [8] - Investors are considering options like call warrants with lower entry costs to mitigate risks while betting on potential rebounds [8][9] Stock Analysis: Semiconductor Industry (SMIC 00981) - SMIC has seen a decline in stock price, currently around 34 HKD, after a peak of 94 HKD, but investor interest remains strong for rebound opportunities [10][11] - New high-leverage products have been introduced to attract investors looking for higher returns in the semiconductor sector [11][13] Stock Analysis: Pop Mart (09992) - Pop Mart's stock has shown signs of recovery after management's first buyback in two years, indicating confidence in the company's future [15][16] - Investors are encouraged to consider call warrants as a way to capitalize on potential rebounds, with specific products highlighted for their favorable terms [16][24] Resource Sector Insights - The resource sector, particularly gold and silver, is gaining attention as prices reach historical highs, with recommendations for investing in related stocks or ETFs [19][20] - Investors are advised to consider leveraged products in the resource sector to maximize returns while managing capital [20] Domestic Consumption Sector - The domestic consumption sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policies promoting local brands, with companies like Li Ning and Midea being highlighted for potential investment [23][24] - Specific warrants for these companies are suggested as viable options for investors looking to capitalize on the domestic consumption trend [24][25]

Group 1 - The company, Kabeiyi, has entered the supply chains of major electric vehicle manufacturers including BYD, Tesla, Geely, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi in the new energy vehicle sector [2]

1月20日，数码博主"数码闲聊站"晒出2025年中国手机市场激活量数据。 数据显示，前三名分别为vivo、小米、苹果。其中，vivo激活量同比裸游下降，小米凭借小米17系列的 热销，排名超越苹果升至第二。 对此，前REDMI总经理王腾发文称，恭喜小米手机和中国区的兄弟们，中国市场第二，非常不容易。 还表示，2026年供应链大涨价，竞争更激烈、挑战更大，祝福大家安好。 责任编辑：李昂 1月20日，数码博主"数码闲聊站"晒出2025年中国手机市场激活量数据。 数据显示，前三名分别为vivo、小米、苹果。其中，vivo激活量同比裸游下降，小米凭借小米17系列的 热销，排名超越苹果升至第二。 | | | | 2025年中国手机市场激活量排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 品牌 | 2025年 | 2025年 | 同比增长 | 2024年 | | | | 激活量(万台) | 市场份额 | | 激活量(万台) | | NO.1 | VIVO [含iQ00] | 4635.70 | 16.77% | -2.58% | 4758.52 | | NO.2 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market saw significant net buying from northbound capital, totaling HKD 36.63 billion, with Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi being the most purchased stocks [2][6] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of HKD 5.03 billion, with total buy and sell amounts of HKD 21.15 billion and HKD 16.12 billion respectively [3][5] - Meituan (03690) recorded a net inflow of HKD 3.19 billion, with total buy and sell amounts of HKD 5.98 billion and HKD 2.79 billion respectively [3][6] Group 2 - Semiconductor stocks showed divergence, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) receiving a net inflow of HKD 2.45 billion, while SMIC (00981) faced a net outflow of HKD 7.17 billion [7] - The report from Open Source Securities indicated that TSMC raised its capital expenditure forecast significantly, reflecting strong long-term demand driven by AI [7] - Long-distance fiber optic cable stocks like Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion, supported by rising prices in the G.652.D fiber market [7] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net inflow of HKD 3.95 billion, while China Mobile (00941) faced a net outflow of HKD 6.37 billion [8] - The report from Bank of America noted that the growth in metal demand is no longer cyclical, as economies are restructuring their energy infrastructure [8] - The sentiment around resource competition is affecting copper prices, which may remain volatile in the short term [8]

Core Insights - On January 20, 2026, Tencent Holdings (00700), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Alibaba-W (09988) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 3.726 billion, 3.051 billion, and 2.391 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and SMIC (00981) led the trading volume, with amounts of 2.662 billion, 2.502 billion, and 1.936 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect Trading Activity - The top active companies in the Southbound Stock Connect included: - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 3.726 billion and a net buying amount of +0.503 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a trading amount of 3.051 billion and a net buying amount of +0.287 billion [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.391 billion and a net selling amount of -5.778 million [2] - Other notable companies included Pop Mart (09992) and SMIC (00981) with trading amounts of 2.178 billion and 2.123 billion respectively [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Trading Activity - The top active companies in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect included: - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 2.662 billion and a net buying amount of +0.160 billion [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.502 billion and a net buying amount of +7.257 million [2] - SMIC (00981) with a trading amount of 1.936 billion and a net selling amount of -5.420 billion [2] - Other notable companies included Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a trading amount of 1.603 billion and a net buying amount of +0.108 billion [2]

Group 1 - The company announced a share buyback plan, committing HKD 196 million to repurchase 5.5 million shares at a price range of HKD 35.46 to HKD 35.86 per share [1] - Additionally, the company will issue 87,000 shares as part of a share incentive plan for participants, excluding the directors of the issuer [1]