Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the continuation of new car subsidy policies for the next year, with subsidies of 20,000 RMB for new energy vehicles and 15,000 RMB for internal combustion engine vehicles, aligning with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The new policy considers vehicle prices, indicating that subsidies for cars priced below 150,000 RMB will decrease year-on-year, while vehicles priced between 150,000 and 200,000 RMB will benefit the most from the incentives [1] - High-end vehicles will not be affected by the adjustments in the subsidy policy [1] Group 2: Company Preferences - Morgan Stanley prefers companies that offer high-end vehicles, such as Li Auto (02015), NIO (09866), and companies collaborating with Huawei, which will also benefit high-end brand agents like Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) [1] Group 3: Market Challenges - Mass market brands are expected to face greater headwinds due to reduced subsidies and a 5% increase in the purchase tax for new energy vehicles [1] Group 4: Supplier Benefits - Suppliers such as Xingyu Automotive (601799.SH), Desay SV (002920.SZ), and Huayang Group (002906.SZ) are believed to benefit from their exposure in the local market [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive industry is entering a new development stage as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, with a focus on the impact of AI on technology paths and market structures [1] - AI is transitioning from a functional enhancement to a core capability that determines the upper limits of intelligence in the automotive sector, yet few companies have fully integrated systematic AI capabilities into mass production [1] - Li Auto is positioning itself with a clear path by unifying perception, understanding, and execution capabilities of intelligent assisted driving under a single AI architecture, moving towards AGI technology evolution [1] Group 2 - Li Auto is at the forefront of productizing edge AI, with initiatives like "Li Xiang Classmate" for multimodal interaction and the development of AI glasses Livis, extending AI capabilities beyond in-car systems [2] - The company's value this year lies in integrating AI as a core element, aligning assisted driving, cabin interaction, and edge products into a cohesive evolution logic, providing a benchmark for other automakers in the AI-driven competition [2] - Li Auto has been recognized in the "2025 Automotive Industry Influence Yearbook" as a representative automaker in the annual process of intelligentization due to its achievements in AI architecture integration and edge product implementation [2]

Core Insights - China's electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a downturn in 2025, with sales declining among major players due to intense competition and changing market dynamics [1] Sales Performance - Sales momentum weakened throughout the year, with Tesla's China sales dropping by 7.4% year-on-year from January to November, while BYD reported a 5.1% decline during the same period [2] - BYD's sales saw a significant drop of 26.5% in November compared to the previous year [2] - Newer entrants, such as models powered by Huawei software and vehicles from Xiaomi, recorded sales increases of over 90% in November, indicating a shift towards tech-driven competitors [3] Market Concentration - The top 10 manufacturers now account for approximately 95% of China's new energy vehicle market, a significant increase from 60-70% just two to three years ago [4] - Analysts anticipate further consolidation as consumers favor well-known brands amid increasing price pressures [4] Price Competition - Aggressive discounting has become prevalent, with significant price cuts reported, such as a 432,000 yuan reduction on the Mercedes-Benz EQS EV [5] - UBS predicts that the price war will persist for years, with potential policy changes in 2026 that could negatively impact growth [5] Sales Growth Forecast - UBS forecasts that China's EV sales growth rate may halve next year from around 20% in 2025, indicating a highly saturated market [6] - New energy vehicles accounted for 59.4% of new passenger car sales in November, suggesting limited room for further rapid expansion [6] International Expansion - Slowing domestic demand is prompting Chinese automakers to accelerate their overseas expansion, where profit margins are typically higher [8] - Geely reported that its EV exports quadrupled in the first half of the year, contributing to total vehicle exports of 184,000 [8] - BYD is also expanding internationally, with a new factory in Hungary set to increase production in 2026 and over 131,000 cars exported in November alone [9] Foreign Competition - Analysts expect intensified competition in Europe from Chinese manufacturers and battery makers, which may pressure US automakers and Tesla [9] - Volkswagen has established joint ventures with Xpeng and Horizon Robotics, delivering over 17 million vehicles in China in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase [10]

Industry Information - The 2025 Globalization and Sustainable Development Forum for the automotive industry released three key industry consensus points, emphasizing the integration of electric intelligence with ESG responsibilities, the importance of safety and user value in smart vehicles, and the necessity of sustainable development as a core requirement for the automotive industry [7] - Wuhan's 14th Five-Year Plan suggests accelerating the development of emerging industries such as embodied intelligence, high-end chips, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces [8] - As of November 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 19.322 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.0%, with public charging facilities accounting for 4.625 million [9][10] - The total investment for the EVE Energy headquarters and Jin Yuan Robot AI Center project is approximately 1 billion yuan, focusing on sodium battery products and AI robotics [12] - Guangzhou aims to create a trillion-level smart connected new energy vehicle industry cluster as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan [13] - The "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Automotive Fast Pass Plan" has been officially implemented, streamlining the import process for electric vehicles [14] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the construction of charging piles in rural areas to support the growth of electric vehicles [15] - Huawei's ADS MAX 4.1 upgrade significantly enhances the experience in urban congestion scenarios [16] - The first batch of L3-level autonomous driving vehicle special license plates has been issued in Beijing, marking a milestone in the commercialization of autonomous vehicles [16] - By 2026, over 10,000 charging guns will be built in highway service areas across the country [16] - The National Energy Administration reported a 60.2% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption for charging and swapping services in November 2025 [18] - The first automotive intelligent chassis testing report was released, with BYD's Yangwang U7, NIO ES8, and Zhijie R7 recognized as benchmark models [20] - Hunan's electric vehicle exports exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 105.3% [22] - Guangzhou's new energy vehicle production increased by 22.6% in the first 11 months of 2025 [22] - A total investment of 7.47 billion yuan was signed at the Ningde lithium battery new energy industry promotion conference, with an expected annual output value of 12.14 billion yuan [27] - The annual export of new energy vehicles from the Xiangyang Comprehensive Bonded Zone exceeded 10,000 units for the first time, marking a 350% year-on-year increase [27] - Inner Mongolia's Chifeng City has built 3,453 charging piles during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [29] Policy Information - The Guizhou Qiannan Prefecture government issued a plan for high-quality energy industry development from 2025 to 2027, focusing on expanding charging infrastructure [30] - The Henan Sanmenxia government released a plan for the construction of charging facilities in residential areas [31] - The Jiangsu province is adjusting its electric vehicle charging fee subsidy policy for 2026 [32] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle, lithium battery, and photovoltaic industries to avoid "involution" [23][24]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the automotive industry will experience new growth driven by "smart driving and overseas expansion" in 2026, with L3-level autonomous driving penetration expected to continue increasing and new energy vehicle (NEV) exports maintaining high growth [2][3] - The report anticipates that the overall export of vehicles will exceed expectations in 2025, with strong momentum for NEV exports in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and North America, indicating a new growth phase for domestic brands [2] - The report highlights that the L3 window period is clearly defined, with multiple domestic manufacturers set to mass-produce vehicles equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, leading to increased penetration of intelligent components [2] Vehicle Sector - The overall demand in the vehicle market remains stable, with a projected retail sales volume of 2,494 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [45] - NEV sales are steadily increasing, with a retail penetration rate exceeding 50%, and a cumulative retail sales volume of 10.15 million units from January to October 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [13] - The average price of passenger vehicles is on a downward trend, with the average price in the first ten months of 2025 being 170,000 yuan, a decrease of 7,000 yuan from the previous year [19] Component Sector - The report indicates that the trend towards electrification remains unchanged, with the penetration of intelligent components expected to continue rising, benefiting from the ongoing development of the automotive supply chain [2] - The report suggests that the domestic automotive supply chain, combined with overseas expansion, is likely to accelerate in 2026, providing incremental opportunities for relevant component manufacturers [2] Robotics Sector - The report notes that humanoid robots are entering a critical stage of industrialization, with significant demand for complex scene interactions driving the growth of core components, benefiting companies with relevant layouts in the robotics field [2] - The report emphasizes that the core components of humanoid robots will enjoy the dividends of industrial development, with companies positioned in this sector expected to benefit first [2] Low-altitude Economy - The report states that the domestic low-altitude economy has transitioned from a nascent stage to a period of rapid development, with the market scale expected to leap from hundreds of billions to trillions [2] - Several automotive companies are entering the low-altitude economy sector, indicating a promising future for growth [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the 2026 NEV purchase tax subsidy will be reduced, leading to increased market competition, while the overall trend of NEV penetration and intelligentization is expected to drive the rise of domestic brands [2][38] - The tightening of "two new" policies is anticipated to increase the marginal cost for consumers, with various regions adjusting or suspending vehicle replacement and scrapping subsidy policies [39][40]

Industry Overview - The electric car market in China is experiencing a downturn in 2025, with overall sales declining and analysts predicting a continued price war [1] - Tesla's sales decreased by 7.4% year-over-year, while BYD, the market leader, reported a 5.1% decline during the same period [1] Sales Performance - BYD's passenger car sales in November alone fell by 26.5% compared to the previous year, indicating a significant drop in demand [2] - In contrast, newer competitors, including vehicles powered by Huawei software and models from Xiaomi, saw sales growth exceeding 90% during the same timeframe [2] - U.S.-listed Chinese electric car startups such as Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto did not rank among the top 10 sellers for the month, despite improvements in their monthly deliveries [2] Market Dynamics - Market concentration in the new energy vehicle sector has increased dramatically, with the top ten manufacturers now accounting for approximately 95% of the market, up from 60-70% just two to three years ago [3] - The new energy vehicle category includes both battery-electric and hybrid-powered cars [3] Future Outlook - Industry consolidation is anticipated, with price competition becoming more critical than brand recognition, as consumers are less likely to purchase unfamiliar brands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "BOE Tech Day" event at Li Auto's Beijing R&D headquarters showcased advanced smart cockpit technologies, emphasizing collaboration between BOE Technology Group and Li Auto to explore future innovations in intelligent cockpit applications [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing a "new four modernizations" wave, with in-car displays rapidly evolving towards high-end, intelligent, and diversified solutions [3]. - Innovative applications such as pillar-to-pillar large-size displays, in-car entertainment for passengers, and smart windows are emerging as key trends in the automotive electronics sector [3]. Group 2: Product Innovations - BOE showcased a series of cutting-edge smart cockpit technologies, receiving high praise for their superior image quality and interactive experiences [4]. - The global debut of enhanced image quality technology significantly improves detail and color saturation, setting a new benchmark for in-car display quality [6]. - The dual 15.05-inch OLED screens feature an ultra-high contrast ratio of 1,000,000:1, enhancing the visual experience while catering to both driving and entertainment needs [8]. Group 3: Interactive Experience - The innovative headrest light field screen allows users to view a large virtual image from a small screen, enhancing the immersive experience in confined spaces [10]. - A 15.6-inch anti-peep screen can switch modes to protect user privacy, particularly useful in business settings [13]. - The introduction of a 417 PPI glasses-free 3D product and a smart steering wheel with multiple interaction technologies showcases advancements in user engagement and safety [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - BOE aims to lead the automotive display market with its "HERO" smart cockpit ecosystem, integrating health, entertainment, and office functionalities into a cohesive user experience [15]. - The company plans to continue collaborating with global partners like Li Auto to drive innovation in smart cockpit technologies and enhance user experiences in intelligent mobility [15].

Group 1 - BlackRock reduced its stake in Li Auto-W (02015) by 8.196 million shares on December 23, with an average price of HKD 65.4387 per share, totaling approximately HKD 536 million [1] - After the reduction, BlackRock's remaining shareholding is approximately 87.1786 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 4.88% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto (02015) shows strong performance with a stock price increase of 2.1 HKD, exceeding 3% rise, indicating potential recovery in the new energy vehicle sector or a rebound in company delivery volumes [1] Stock Performance - As of 13:10, Li Auto's stock price reached 67.15 HKD, with a high of 67.95 HKD and a low of 66.75 HKD, demonstrating active trading with a volume of 8.78 million shares and a transaction value close to 600 million HKD [1] - Technical indicators suggest a "buy" signal with a strength of 8, indicating a potential bottoming out and rebound [1] Key Support and Resistance Levels - Recent key support is at 64.6 HKD, with the next support level at 62.5 HKD; resistance is initially at 70.6 HKD, with a potential challenge at 72.4 HKD if broken [1] Investment Products - For bullish investors, consider the Bank of China call option (23689) with a leverage of 2.7 times and an exercise price of 80.15 HKD [4] - For aggressive strategies, JPMorgan's bull certificate (61326) offers 4.8 times leverage with a recovery price of 59 HKD, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (55810) provides 4.6 times leverage with a recovery price of 58 HKD [4][5] Bearish Options - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's bear certificate (68758) offers 5.1 times leverage with a recovery price of 78 HKD, and UBS's bear certificate (67911) provides 4.3 times leverage with a recovery price of 79 HKD [4][5] Market Sentiment - The recent rebound in Li Auto's stock price raises questions about the sustainability of this upward trend, particularly in relation to new vehicle delivery growth and margin improvement [7]

在准旗舰大6座纯电SUV中，问界和蔚来等部分车型排名靠前，理想汽车i8四驱版以34.8%成为该项目得 分最低的车型。 | ■进阶家用纯电轿车 | | | 测试环境温度:-20--10℃ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小船P7 | | 21.98-30.18万 | 53.9%▶ | | 2025款 750 四驱高性 | | 指导价 | 续航达成率 | | 能 Ultra 双电机四驱 | | | 实测续航366.7km | | 仰望U7 | 2025款 EV 五座豪华 | 62.80-70.80万 | 51.8%▶ 续航达成率 | | 版 四电机四驱 | | 指导价 | 实测续航372.9km | | 极复001 | 2026款 103度四驱 UI | 26.98-32.98万 | 49.6%1 续航达成率 | | tra版 双电机四驱 | | 指导价 | 实测续航362.1km | | Model 3 | 2025款 改款 长续航 | 23.55-33.95万 | 48.0%▶ 续航达成率 | | 全轮驱动版 双电 ... | | 指导价 | 实测续航361.8km | | 汉L ...