Core Viewpoint - Upmood Holdings (02145) shares rose over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, following a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and profit growth driven by strategic brand and channel optimization [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Upmood Holdings expects revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1][1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][1] Strategic Insights - The revenue and profit increase is attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, benefiting from a multi-channel and multi-category approach, as well as substantial growth from the new growth curve, Newpage [1][1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands [1][1] - CICC highlighted that the profit forecast exceeded expectations due to improved profit margins driven by channel and brand structure optimization [1][1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Upmood Holdings' stock price increased by 5.3%, with a trading volume of 41.4813 million HKD [1][1] - CICC has maintained an outperform rating for the company and raised the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, driven by positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Net profit is expected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2 - The revenue and profit growth are attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has benefited from a multi-channel and multi-category strategy, as well as a substantial increase in revenue from the new growth line, Newpage [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and positioning new brands accurately [1] - CICC notes that the company's profit forecast for the first half of the year exceeds expectations, primarily due to the optimization of channel and brand structures, which has led to an unexpected increase in profit margins [1] Group 3 - The company is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the trend towards cost-effective consumption, while also opening up new growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1] - CICC maintains an outperform rating for the company and raises the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, contributing to the overall bullish trend in this segment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992.HK) rose by 7.87%, while Shangmei Co. (02145.HK) increased by 7.34%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) saw a rise of 5.93% [1][2]. - The New Consumption Concept Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 64.97%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 24.18% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Shangmei Co. expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, with net profit projected to reach 540 million to 560 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. - Laopu Gold anticipates revenue of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [4]. - Pop Mart forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - Investment firms are optimistic about the new consumption sector, noting a shift towards personalized and service-oriented consumption among residents [6]. - The Hong Kong consumption sector is seen as more aligned with current new consumption trends compared to the A-share market, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Despite the current high valuations in the new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumption remains intact, suggesting continued growth in related areas such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [7][8].

Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a leading multi-brand cosmetics company in China, with its main brand, Han Shu, generating 56 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, accounting for 82% of total revenue [2][4] - The company adheres to a multi-brand group strategy and plans to expand into six major cosmetics categories over the next decade, including mass skincare, personal care, maternal and infant products, medical skincare, color cosmetics, and high-end skincare [2][4] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported impressive performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% in revenue and 130% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] - The Douyin channel revenue is projected to recover from 2.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 5-6 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong growth in online sales [2][5][6] Development Stages - The company's development can be divided into four stages: 1. **Startup Phase (2003-2007)**: Establishment of the Han Shu brand 2. **Rapid Growth Phase (2008-2018)**: Expansion through CS and e-commerce channels 3. **Adjustment Phase (2019-2022)**: Challenges in offline channels and online positioning 4. **Transformation Breakthrough Phase (2023-Present)**: Focus on box sets and Douyin strategies leading to high growth [7][8] Management and Ownership - As of the end of 2024, the founder holds over 60% of the shares, ensuring concentrated control and stability within the company [2][7] - The management team is relatively young, with most core executives under 50 years old, and the inclusion of professional managers supports the group's development [7] Marketing Strategies - The company employs celebrity endorsements and sponsors popular variety shows to enhance brand visibility [9] - It has successfully utilized live e-commerce and launched differentiated products like the Hongmai Oxygen Box to meet the needs of the Douyin market [9][10] Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - Shangmei Co., Ltd. has developed its own supply chain since 2006, with production bases in Suzhou, Shanghai, and overseas, allowing for competitive pricing and improved gross margins [10] - The company uses high cost-performance promotions to attract consumers, successfully applying these strategies in both traditional and online channels [10] Future Development Outlook - Future growth is expected in three core areas: multi-category expansion, all-channel strategy, and multi-brand development [11] - The Han Shu brand is expanding its product lines, including new essence products and the X peptide series, while also enhancing its presence in various channels [11][12][13] Sub-brands and New Initiatives - The company has traditional sub-brands like Yiyezi and Hongse Xiaoxiang, and has launched new brands such as New Page, which focuses on infant skincare [14] - New Page achieved 380 million yuan in revenue in 2024, indicating strong growth potential [14] Overall Performance and Future Expectations - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit margin improved significantly, supported by multi-category and all-channel expansion [15] - The diversified coverage of sub-brands is expected to bolster the group's development, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 100.00 [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3%. Net profit is anticipated to be around RMB 540 million to RMB 560 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [5][6] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and substantial growth in the Newpage brand, which focuses on infant skincare [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in its price segment and expand its product categories, leveraging its multi-brand matrix for new opportunities [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,793 million (+62.08%) - 2025E: RMB 8,502 million (+25.16%) - 2026E: RMB 10,422 million (+22.59%) - 2027E: RMB 12,668 million (+21.55%) [4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: RMB 781.21 million (+69.42%) - 2025E: RMB 1,020 million (+30.53%) - 2026E: RMB 1,283 million (+25.86%) - 2027E: RMB 1,559 million (+21.51%) [4] - The expected EPS for the upcoming years is: - 2024: RMB 1.96 - 2025E: RMB 2.56 - 2026E: RMB 3.22 - 2027E: RMB 3.92 [4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Han Shu's online GMV reached RMB 5.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, ranking fourth among domestic brands [6] - The brand's performance on the Douyin platform showed a significant increase in GMV, achieving RMB 456 million in July 2025, a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [6] - The Newpage brand also demonstrated strong growth, with GMV of RMB 341 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128% [6][8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,910.63 points, up 0.03% or 8.1 points, with a total turnover of HKD 215.235 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.21% to 8,932.68 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.2% to 5,532.17 points [1] - ZheShang International noted that the market fundamentals remain weak, with a cautious outlook on short-term sentiment [1] Blue Chip Performance - BYD Electronics (00285) led blue-chip stocks, rising 6.72% to HKD 37.8, contributing 3.01 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included SMIC (00981) up 3.14% and China Shenhua (01088) up 2.99%, while Li Auto-W (02015) fell 5.35% [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tencent up 1.7% and Alibaba up 0.6%, while Xiaomi fell 0.55% [3] - The "anti-involution" theme gained traction, with paper, coal, and steel stocks generally rising, including a notable increase of over 10% for Nine Dragons Paper [3][4] - New consumption concepts performed well, with Pop Mart (09992) rising 7.87% and Shangmei (02145) up 7.34% [3] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw significant gains, with companies like Geekplus (02590) rising 5.68% and MicroPort (02252) up 4.07% [5] - Recent product launches and government initiatives in Shanghai are expected to accelerate the development of the robotics industry [6] Notable Stock Movements - Times Angel (06699) surged 18.29% after announcing a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit increase of approximately 538.1% to 604.8% [7] - Crystal Technology (02228) rose 12.42% following a significant partnership agreement worth approximately HKD 470 billion [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased by 7.75% due to optimistic profit forecasts based on seasonal factors in the shipbuilding industry [9] - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) saw a strong performance despite a projected revenue decline, rising 7.89% [10] - Cathay Pacific (00293) fell 9.66% after reporting mid-year earnings that did not meet market expectations [11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145.HK) closed at 87.750 HKD on August 6, marking a 7.34% increase from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 90.900 HKD, reaching a nearly one-year high [1] - The company experienced a net outflow of 785.97 thousand HKD in capital flow on the same day, with unspecified amounts of inflow and outflow [1] - Shanghai Shangmei is a leading domestic cosmetics company founded in 2002, known for its multiple brands such as Han Shu, Yi Ye Zi, and Hong Se Xiao Xiang, and operates across various categories and channels including skincare, maternal and infant care, and hair care [1] Group 2 - The company has established two major research centers and an international supply chain, emphasizing its commitment to becoming a world-class influential cosmetics company [1] - The corporate culture is centered around values of diversity, optimism, innovation, and heritage, aiming to create products that are loved by consumers globally [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 上海上美化妝品股份有限公司 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年8月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02145 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 206,319,319 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 206,319,319 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 206,319,319 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 206,319,319 | | 2. 股份分類 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the performance forecast for Shangmei Co. in the first half of the year exceeds expectations, suggesting a promising outlook for the multi-brand group [1] Financial Performance - The company expects revenue for the first half of the year to be between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - Calculating the midpoint of the ranges, the corresponding net profit margin for the first half is estimated at 13.4% [1] Future Projections - Considering the ongoing brand momentum and strengthening competitive advantages, the firm has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% each, to 1.13 billion and 1.39 billion yuan respectively [1] - The rating is maintained at "outperforming the industry," with a target price increase of 15% to 98 Hong Kong dollars [1]