Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable growth over the next three years through its "2+2+2" strategy, which focuses on skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant care, supported by a rich reserve of new brands [3][4]. - The main brand, Han Shu, maintains a leading position in the anti-aging skincare sector, with significant expansion into men's and color cosmetics, while new brands like NEWPAGE are rapidly gaining traction in the infant skincare market [10][11]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with total revenue expected to reach 67.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 61.2%, and net profit expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan, up 69.4% [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading multi-brand cosmetics enterprise in China, focusing on skincare, maternal and infant care, and hair care products. It has successfully built a brand matrix that includes popular brands like Han Shu and NEWPAGE [17]. - The company has experienced strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.0% from 2020 to 2024, driven by the explosive growth of its main brand Han Shu [31]. 2. Brand Strategy - The "2+2+2" strategy integrates two major brands in skincare, two in maternal and infant care, and two in hair care, creating a diversified brand matrix that meets various consumer needs [42]. - Han Shu accounts for approximately 82.3% of total revenue, with a strong performance in the anti-aging market, while NEWPAGE has emerged as a significant growth driver in the infant skincare segment [46][60]. 3. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 42.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 67.9 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit expected to increase from 1.3 billion yuan to 7.8 billion yuan during the same period [31][11]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 60.9% in 2019 to 75.2% in 2024, reflecting the success of the high-end product strategy [33]. 4. Sales Channels - Online sales have become a major revenue source, with the online channel accounting for 90.5% of total revenue in 2024, driven by the strong performance of Han Shu and the rapid growth of NEWPAGE [37]. - The company has increased its self-operated sales proportion from 46.7% in 2020 to 78.2% in 2024, indicating a shift towards more direct sales strategies [37]. 5. Future Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its brand matrix with new brands targeting specific market segments, such as the high-end infant skincare market with NEWPAGE and the maternal care market with Red Elephant [60][68]. - The focus on innovation and research is expected to drive future growth, particularly in the clean beauty segment with brands like One Leaf [68].

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the Japanese toy company Sanrio, with FY2026Q1 revenue reaching 431 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and a net profit of 141.9 billion yen, up 38% year-on-year [14][27] - The report emphasizes the growing demand for vocational education in China, with over 12 million college graduates in 2025, and a significant talent gap in the service industry, estimated at over 20 million [5][12] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing high demand, driven by promotional campaigns such as "The First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn" launched by delivery platforms [5][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Toy Industry - Sanrio's FY2026Q1 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a significant contribution from the Chinese market, which saw a revenue increase of 125% year-on-year [14][27] - Bandai's FY2026Q1 revenue was 3004 billion yen, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 383 billion yen, up 12.6% year-on-year [30][36] Section 2: Vocational Education - The vocational education sector is targeting the service industry's talent gap, with a focus on practical training and skill development [5][12] - New Oriental's vocational programs are designed with 80% of the curriculum focused on practical training, leading to higher average salaries for graduates [5][12] Section 3: Beverage Industry - The tea beverage market is thriving, with promotional activities driving sales growth [5][12] - Companies like Mixue and Luckin Coffee are positioned to benefit from this trend [5][12] Section 4: Market Performance - The social services sector underperformed the broader market, with the social services index down 0.11% compared to a 1.34% increase in the CSI 300 index [6][28] - Recommendations for investment include tourism, education, and consumer services, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [6][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, particularly highlighting companies like Shiseido and Up Beauty for their strong performance and growth potential [12][14]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market during the week of August 1 to August 8, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index growing by 1.7%, which is lower than the overall market performance [5][6]. - There is a notable divergence in the performance of domestic beauty brands in July, with strong growth observed in skincare brands like Han Shu and Marubi, while color cosmetics lagged due to weather and promotional timing [11][12]. - Up Beauty's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue projected between 4.09 to 4.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [12][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index increased by 1.3%, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 0.6 percentage points, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index rose by 4.2%, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 2.3 percentage points [5][6]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Up Beauty (+18.4%), Reliable Shares (+13.7%), and Lafang Home (+11.3%) [7]. Key Company Updates - Up Beauty's H1 2025 earnings report indicated a significant profit increase, with net profit margins improving due to optimized channel structures and a higher proportion of high-margin brands [12][13]. - Shiseido reported a 7.6% decline in sales for H1 2025, marking the largest drop in five years, with a notable decrease in the Chinese market [24]. E-commerce Insights - In July 2025, domestic beauty brands showed varied performance on major e-commerce platforms, with Han Shu achieving a 58% increase in GMV on Douyin, while color cosmetics faced challenges [20][21]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in June 2025 saw a decline of 2.3%, attributed to the pre-promotion of the 618 shopping festival [21][24]. Market Trends - The report highlights a shift in market dynamics, with domestic brands gaining market share against international competitors, particularly in the skincare segment [34][35]. - The Chinese skincare market is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a 3.7% decline in growth [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects revenue in the first half of 2025 to reach between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and net profit is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 1 - Growth drivers include the continuous contribution of the Han Shu brand's multi-category layout across all channels and a significant year-on-year increase in revenue from the infant skincare brand Newpage [1] - The main brand's promotional self-broadcasting performance is impressive, and the ongoing expansion of product categories is expected to support high growth [1] - According to Qingyan data, Han Shu ranked first in the Douyin beauty and skincare category in June and has maintained this position for eight consecutive months, with self-operated sales contributing 60.4% of its revenue in June [1] Group 2 - The company plans to build a six-part matrix in the long term, including mass skincare, personal care, maternal and infant products, skin medical beauty, makeup, high-end skincare, and instruments over the next decade [1] - The main brand Han Shu has strong momentum and has successfully established a strong brand presence on the Douyin channel, with other brands likely to replicate this successful model, further contributing to performance growth [1][2] - Based on the company's strong online sales performance, net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.02 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.55 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 25.2%, and 20.9% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 40.9 billion to RMB 41.1 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 5.4 billion and RMB 5.6 billion, showing a significant increase of 30.9% to 35.8% year-on-year. Key growth drivers include the multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and significant revenue growth from the new baby skincare brand Newpage [8] - The company plans to build a matrix of six major segments over the next decade, including mass skincare, personal care, maternal and infant products, medical aesthetics, color cosmetics, and high-end skincare. The main brand Han Shu has shown strong momentum, particularly on Douyin, and other brands are expected to replicate this success, contributing to performance growth [8] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 10.2 billion, RMB 12.8 billion, and RMB 15.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 25.2%, and 20.9% respectively. The strong brand momentum of Han Shu and the successful establishment of a self-broadcasting system are expected to drive steady growth [8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 6.79 billion in 2024 to RMB 11.70 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 62.1%, 27.8%, 16.8%, and 15.5% respectively [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 781 million in 2024 to RMB 1.55 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 69.4%, 31.1%, 25.2%, and 20.9% respectively [9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 23.0%, 35.7%, 31.9%, 28.5%, and 25.7% from 2023 to 2027 [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by optimized channel and brand structures, leading to better-than-expected profit margins. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 1H25 to be between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The expected net profit for 1H25 is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - The anticipated net profit margin for 1H25 is 13.4%, calculated based on the midpoint of the profit forecast [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The Han Shu brand has successfully expanded its product lines, with the proportion of its main product series decreasing to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15% [1] - Newpage continues to show strong growth, with a GMV increase of over 140% across major platforms in 1H25 [1] - The company is also seeing growth in its new brands, such as Anminyou and Hongse Xiaoxiang, which are progressing well [1] Group 3: Profitability and Channel Optimization - Han Shu has optimized its channel structure, resulting in a significant improvement in profit margins, with the proportion of GMV from Douyin decreasing by 30 percentage points to 20% [2] - The overall profit margin for the company is expected to improve by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.4% due to the increased share of higher-margin brands like Newpage [2] Group 4: Future Growth and Brand Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with further launches planned for the second half of 2025 [3] - The long-term strategy includes focusing on six major brands across skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products over the next three years [3] - The company aims to establish a multi-brand, multi-category cosmetics group, indicating a broad growth potential in the market [3] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% each, now estimating 1.13 billion and 1.39 billion yuan respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 22x for 2026, with a target price increase of 15% to 98 HKD, suggesting a 20% upside potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant revenue growth in the first half of the year, with profits expected to exceed revenue growth substantially [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Profit is expected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - The net profit margin for the first half is projected to be between 13.1% and 13.7%, indicating a significant improvement [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid growth of the infant and child brand, Yi Ye [1] - The company has adjusted its reliance on Douyin for sales, leading to a maintained industry-leading position for Han Shu in Douyin sales [1] - The market has underestimated the company's operational capabilities in the high-cost performance sector and its flexible cooperation model [1] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is one of the few local cosmetics groups with a mature multi-brand and multi-category development strategy [2] - The main brand, Han Shu, is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% over the next three years [2] - The mid-to-high-end infant brand, Yi Ye, is projected to grow by over 100% this year, with a future CAGR of over 50% [2] - New brands and product lines, such as the hair care brand Ji Fang and skincare brand ATISER, are expected to contribute to future growth [2] Group 4: Earnings Adjustment - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 yuan respectively [2] - A target price of 97.72 HKD has been set for 2025, based on a 33 times price-to-earnings ratio [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangmei Co., Ltd., has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by strong performance from its main brand, Han Shu, and its smaller brand, Yi Ye [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between 4.09 to 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1]. - The net profit is projected to be between 540 to 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, Han Shu maintained its position as the top-selling beauty and skincare brand on Douyin, with significant sales growth across multiple platforms: 46% on Tmall, 81% on JD, 40% on Vipshop, and 229% on Pinduoduo [2]. - The Yi Ye Newpage brand also saw impressive sales increases, with growth rates of 106% on Tmall, 190% on Douyin, and 158% on JD, ranking high in various categories within the baby care sector [2]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 1.16 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [2]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating continued confidence in the company's multi-brand development and upward trend in net profit margins [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price is set at 97.72 HKD, based on a 33x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2][10] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with revenue growth driven by its main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid expansion of its infant brand, Yi Ye [9][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 4,191 in 2023 to 12,350 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.6%, 62.1%, 24.7%, 22.3%, and 19.2% respectively [4][12] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 414 million RMB in 2023 to 1,739 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates of 308.5% in 2023 and 67.8% in 2024 [4][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 461 million RMB in 2023 to 1,669 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 213.5% in 2023 and 69.4% in 2024 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.1% in 2023 to 76.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 11.0% to 13.5% over the same period [4][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 165.8% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The stock price as of August 6, 2025, was 87.75 HKD, with a 52-week high of 90.9 HKD and a low of 28.84 HKD [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its first half performance for 2025, with projected revenue of 40.9 to 41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and a net profit of 5.4 to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous growth of the main brand, Han Shu, and significant contributions from smaller brands like Newpage [2] - The company has optimized its brand strategy, particularly for Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, enhancing its multi-category layout and overall competitiveness [2] - During the major e-commerce promotion event in June 2025, Han Shu maintained its leading position in sales across multiple platforms, with significant year-on-year growth in sales on platforms like Tmall and JD [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 11.6 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's multi-brand development and net profit margin trends [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.6% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 48.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 2.91 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.7% [5][12] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence, particularly in the beauty and skincare sectors, with Han Shu leading in sales rankings on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, all-channel strategy, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9]