兴业证券指出，2023-2024年，上美股份在抖音渠道取得显著成绩，韩束2024年GMV达67.49亿，同比增 长102%，GMV排名抖音美妆第一。抖音渠道的快速增长带动公司线上自营渠道收入占比快速提升，从 2022年的39.6%提升至2024年的78.2%。同时，公司也在均衡发展其他电商渠道，如2024年韩束双十一 天猫/京东GMV增速分别为57%/115%，淘系、京东等渠道进入较快增速通道。多渠道布局有助于公司 扩大市场份额，降低对单一渠道的依赖。 上美股份(02145)盘中涨超10%，截至发稿，涨9.12%，报82.55港元，成交额1.52亿港元。 消息面上，据蝉妈妈数据，7月国货知名品牌持续高增长，韩束增长58%，珀莱雅增长23%，丸美增长 72%，可复美增长28%。此外，7月抖音美容护肤板块韩束稳居第一。开源证券指出，国货品牌产品优 势正逐步释放，平台势能不断积聚，有望在未来进一步扩大市场份额。 本文源自智通财经网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 10% during trading, reflecting strong performance in the domestic beauty brand market and particularly in the Douyin channel [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shumei Co., Ltd. reported a stock price of 82.55 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.52 billion HKD [1] - The company has achieved notable growth in its brands, with Han Shu growing by 58%, Proya by 23%, Marubi by 72%, and Kefu Mei by 28% in July [1] - Han Shu is leading the Douyin beauty and skincare segment, indicating strong brand positioning [1] Group 2: Market Trends - According to Open Source Securities, domestic brands are gradually releasing their product advantages, with the potential to further expand market share [1] - Industrial growth is supported by the rapid increase in online self-operated channel revenue, which is projected to rise from 39.6% in 2022 to 78.2% in 2024 [1] Group 3: Sales Projections - For 2024, Han Shu's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is expected to reach 6.749 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 102% [1] - The company is also experiencing significant growth in other e-commerce channels, with projected GMV growth rates of 57% and 115% for Tmall and JD.com during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024, respectively [1] - The multi-channel strategy is aiding the company in expanding its market share and reducing reliance on a single sales channel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 10% during trading, attributed to strong growth in domestic beauty brands and successful performance on platforms like Douyin [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported a stock price increase of 9.12%, reaching HKD 82.55, with a trading volume of HKD 152 million [1] - The brand Han Shu achieved a remarkable growth of 58% in July, while other brands like Proya and Marubi also showed substantial growth rates of 23% and 72% respectively [1] - The company's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Han Shu is projected to reach 6.749 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 102%, making it the top-ranked beauty brand on Douyin [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic beauty brand market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with platforms like Douyin contributing to the growth of these brands [1] - The online self-operated channel revenue share for Shangmei Co., Ltd. is expected to rise from 39.6% in 2022 to 78.2% in 2024, indicating a shift towards online sales [1] - The company is also diversifying its e-commerce channels, with projected GMV growth rates for Han Shu during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024 of 57% on Tmall and 115% on JD.com [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02145 | 下美股份 | 81.500 | 7.73% | | 06181 | 老铺黄金 | 731.500 | 6.01% | | 09863 | 零跑汽车 | 61.250 | 4.88% | | 02367 | 巨子生物 | 57.200 | 2.97% | | 01364 | 古茗 | 23.620 | 2.92% | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 250.000 | 2.80% | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 54.500 | 2.06% | | 09985 | 卫龙美味 | 12.160 | 1.50% | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 72.350 | 1.47% | | 01405 | 达势股份 | 85.250 | 1.31% | | 01318 | 毛戈平 | 100.400 | 0.80% | | 09896 | 名创优品 | 37.180 | 0.35% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 37.920 | 0.32% | | 02097 | 蜜雪集 ...

Group 1 - The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761—2024) will be implemented in phases, with production starting on September 1, 2025, and sales on December 1, 2025, leading to a significant market demand for compliant vehicles [1][2] - The current electric bicycle ownership in China is approximately 380 million, indicating a strong market presence and consumer reliance on these vehicles for short-distance travel [1] - The new standard emphasizes higher safety requirements, including fire resistance and material specifications, prompting manufacturers to upgrade their products and production lines [2][3] Group 2 - Major companies like Yadea and Luyuan are actively preparing for the new standard, with Yadea already obtaining CCC certification for six models and planning to transition to new standard production by mid-August [3][4] - The transition period from September 1 to December 1, 2025, allows manufacturers to clear existing inventory of old standard vehicles, with many companies implementing promotional strategies to facilitate sales [4][5] - The new standard is expected to lead to a consolidation in the industry, as smaller brands may struggle to meet the new requirements, potentially increasing market share for leading companies [5][6] Group 3 - Companies are focusing on quality control and cost management to meet the new standards, with Luyuan optimizing production processes and investing in advanced inspection equipment [6][7] - The implementation of the new standard is seen as an opportunity for industry leaders to enhance their brand influence and market position through differentiation and innovation [5][6] - The overall market demand remains stable despite some consumer hesitation to purchase old standard models, as companies continue to promote their products and respond to consumer safety concerns [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, highlighting the favorable momentum in new consumption sectors, particularly in beauty care, gold, trendy toys, and freshly brewed tea drinks [4]. Core Insights - The new consumption landscape reflects the evolving consumer preferences of the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumption companies [80]. Beauty Care Sector - The high-end beauty segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for mass-market products [5][9]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the national beauty market share reaching 50.4% in 2023, surpassing foreign brands [15][18]. Gold Jewelry Sector - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow from 820 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,140 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.8% [19]. - The ancient gold segment shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028, despite a slowdown in growth rates [24][25]. Trendy Toys Sector - The trendy toy market in China reached 626 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth [40]. - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021 [46]. Freshly Brewed Tea Drinks Sector - The freshly brewed tea drink market in China was valued at 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, with expectations to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [67]. - The market for freshly brewed tea drinks is anticipated to maintain its position as the largest segment within the freshly brewed beverage category, with a projected CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [71][75].

Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing a resurgence in the fragrance sector, with major brands and local companies expanding their offerings [2][3] - Interparfums has signed a fragrance licensing agreement with Longchamp, with the first fragrance expected to launch in 2027 [2] - The market is witnessing a trend of cross-industry brands entering the fragrance space, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards emotional and everyday use of fragrances [8][10] Industry Developments - Interparfums is set to fully manage the Longchamp fragrance line, which will include the creation, development, production, and sales of the brand's perfumes [2] - Coty has launched a new mass-market fragrance brand, Origen, targeting the U.S. market with a focus on storytelling through scents [5] - TSG Consumer has acquired the independent fragrance brand Phlur, which emphasizes emotional resonance and affordability [7] Market Trends - The global fragrance market is projected to grow steadily, with estimates suggesting it will exceed $79.3 billion by 2027, driven by the demand for self-care and emotional healing [8][9] - The fragrance market is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of over 3%, with the Chinese market showing significant growth potential despite low penetration rates [9] - Fragrances are increasingly seen as everyday emotional consumption items rather than luxury goods, with younger consumers seeking emotional connections through scent [9][10] Financial Performance - Puig's latest half-year report indicates that its fragrance and fashion division generated €1.685 billion in revenue, accounting for over 70% of total revenue, with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [8] - The fragrance industry boasts a gross margin of approximately 70%, with low raw material costs and high product turnover rates contributing to its profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the beauty and cosmetics sector, with a notable performance in hair care and color cosmetics, indicating a stable growth trajectory [7][35] - The medical aesthetics sector is expected to gain momentum from the introduction of innovative products, particularly in the field of collagen and hair loss treatments [30][46] Summary by Sections Market Review - In June, the beauty and personal care index fell by 3.61%, ranking 31st among all primary industries, underperforming the market [14] - The medical aesthetics sector saw significant stock price increases for companies like Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+64.4%), Yonghe Medical (+50.0%), and Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+13.3%) [20][26] - For the first half of 2025, the medical aesthetics sector recorded substantial gains, with Jinbo Biological (+124.6%), Yonghe Medical (+83.3%), and Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+69.9%) leading the way [20][26] Medical Aesthetics - Jinbo Biological launched the world's first recombinant type III humanized collagen gel, HiveCOL, which is expected to revolutionize tissue regeneration [30] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical introduced new products targeting skin quality improvement and contour shaping, while Kedi's external finasteride spray received approval, marking a significant advancement in hair loss treatment [31][32] Cosmetics - The retail sales of cosmetics in the first half of 2025 reached 229.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [35] - Online sales of cosmetics amounted to 267.83 billion yuan, growing by 11.1%, while offline sales decreased by 4.1% to 228.44 billion yuan [36] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands in the online market, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [40][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic beauty brands that are expected to gain market share, particularly in high-growth segments [46][47] - Key recommendations include companies like Shangmei Co., Ltd., Maogeping, and Pulaia, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the beauty market [50]

Core Viewpoint - The hair care market is experiencing significant growth, with online transaction value reaching 340.37 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.67% [4][5]. Market Performance - The hair care segment outperformed other beauty categories, driven by a 131.5% surge in men's hair care and steady performances from international brands like Kérastase, L'Oréal, and Pantene [2][4]. - The overall beauty market saw a total online transaction value of 3,060.39 billion yuan, with hair care being one of the fastest-growing segments [5]. Segment Breakdown - The hair care subcategories showed robust growth: - Hair cleansing: 179.72 billion yuan, up 21.56% - Hair care: 74.00 billion yuan, up 19.59% - Hair dyeing and perming: 57.44 billion yuan, up 17.20% - Hair styling: 20.76 billion yuan, up 16.64% - Men's hair care: 5.12 billion yuan, up 131.50% [7]. Brand Landscape - The market share of the top five brands (CR5) decreased from 19% in 2024 to 16%, indicating increased competition from emerging domestic brands and private labels [8]. - New domestic brands like Off&Relax and others are gaining traction, with several entering the top 20 rankings [11]. Consumer Trends - There is a shift towards efficacy-driven products, with consumers seeking solutions for specific scalp issues and multi-functional products [14][19]. - The introduction of "face-care level" ingredients in hair care products is becoming a trend, enhancing the overall consumer experience [19][21]. Innovation and New Products - Over 25 brands launched new products in the first half of 2025, with a focus on scalp care and multi-functional benefits [13]. - Brands are emphasizing rapid effectiveness, with products claiming visible results in as little as one to three minutes [17]. Future Outlook - The competition in the hair care market is expected to intensify, particularly in the areas of anti-hair loss and scalp care, with a focus on patented technologies and quick results [26][29]. - The potential for growth in differentiated segments like scalp oils is significant, as brands explore new opportunities [23][26].

Core Points - The founder of Han Shu, Lü Yixiong, publicly opposed overtime work, leading to employee skepticism about whether actual workloads would decrease [2][4] - The parent company, Shangmei Co., has set a target of 10 billion yuan by 2025, requiring Han Shu to maintain a growth rate of 50%, but its Douyin repurchase rate has dropped from 24% to 18% [1][3] - Shangmei Co. faces a "growth curse" with a marketing expense of 3.9 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of its reliance on the "racehorse mechanism" and marketing strategies as traffic dividends fade [1][20] Group 1: Internal Challenges - Lü Yixiong's anti-overtime stance has sparked controversy, with employees reporting that workloads remain high despite the ban on overtime [4][6] - Employees describe a "racehorse mechanism" that pressures teams to produce similar content, leading to a high-stress environment [4][8] - The cancellation of meal allowances and transportation reimbursements has further exacerbated employee dissatisfaction, as they now bear additional costs without a reduction in workload [6][7] Group 2: Marketing and Financial Performance - Han Shu's marketing strategy has historically been aggressive, with significant investments leading to high visibility but also high costs [20][21] - In 2024, Shangmei Co. reported revenue of 6.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, but profit growth is slowing [16][21] - The marketing expenses for Shangmei Co. reached 3.9 billion yuan, accounting for 60% of total revenue, while R&D investment remains low at 2.6% [21][23] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 10 billion yuan by 2025, but achieving this will require Han Shu to sustain a 50% growth rate amidst rising marketing costs and channel imbalances [23][24] - The competitive landscape in the beauty market is intensifying, and the effectiveness of Lü Yixiong's anti-involution initiative remains to be seen [24]