Core Viewpoint - The potential collapse of Vanke, one of China's major developers, could raise significant concerns regarding policymakers' strategies to tackle the ongoing real estate slump, which has persisted for six years [1] Group 1 - Many large developers in China have already defaulted, indicating a broader issue within the real estate sector [1] - A Vanke collapse would highlight the challenges faced by the government in managing the real estate crisis [1] - The ongoing slump in the real estate market raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies [1]

据Debtwire消息，22万科MTN004展期一年方案未获通过，但延长本金和利息支付30个交易日宽限期的方案获得批准。延长的宽限期将于1月28日结束。 https://t.co/o8pWXMnhf7 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with a focus on prioritizing mid-to-short-term coupon assets for investment [1][10] - The current yield for 1-year products is in the range of 1.72%-1.80%, with spreads below the central level since 2024 by 13-19 basis points [2][24] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.83%-2.10%, and spreads are in the range of 19-42 basis points, with a recommendation to prioritize mid-to-short-term coupon assets due to high demand from funds and wealth management [2][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the 4-5 year products have yields ranging from 2.0%-2.35% and spreads between 26-55 basis points, with a marginal recovery in coupon configuration value [3][26] - For products over 5 years, yields are between 2.23%-2.76% with spreads from 24-64 basis points, indicating a need for cautious trading participation due to market volatility [3][26] - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with credit spreads showing weak compression momentum [6][24] Group 3 - Key policies include the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizing the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and the second meeting of bondholders for "22 Vanke MTN004" [4][28] - The report mentions that nearly 70% of bond-issuing entities in Henan have completed the repayment of hidden debts, indicating significant progress in debt resolution and market transformation [4][28] - The report also notes the first appearance of Guizhou's municipal state-owned enterprise in the capital market, marking a significant event in the current round of debt resolution [4][28]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint Among the top 50 AA urban investment bonds (subject rating) with the highest discount margins, "20 Tiantai Bond" has the largest valuation price deviation. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, "20 Tiantai Bond" also has the largest valuation price deviation. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, "22 Vanke 02" has the largest valuation price deviation. Among the top 50 secondary perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases, "25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04B(BC)" has the largest valuation price deviation [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Top 50 AA Urban Investment Bonds with the Highest Discount Margins - "20 Tiantai Bond" has a remaining term of 2.00 years, a valuation price deviation of -33.42%, a valuation net price of 39.95 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of 34.99 bp, a valuation yield of 1.98%, and a coupon rate of 4.80%. It has an implied rating of AA(2) and a subject rating of AA, with a transaction date of 2025/12/15 [4]. 2.2 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Declines - "20 Tiantai Bond" has a remaining term of 2.00 years, a valuation price deviation of -33.42%, a valuation net price of 39.95 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of 34.99 bp, a valuation yield of 1.98%, and a coupon rate of 4.80%. It has an implied rating of AA(2) and a subject rating of AA, with a transaction date of 2025/12/15 [5]. 2.3 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - "22 Vanke 02" has a remaining term of 1.21 years, a valuation price deviation of 15.70%, a valuation net price of 22.82 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of -4185.72 bp, a valuation yield of 247.05%, and a coupon rate of 3.64%. It has an implied rating of CC and a subject rating of AAA, with a transaction date of 2025/12/16 [9]. 2.4 Top 50 Secondary Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - "25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04B(BC)" has a remaining term of 9.93 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.19%, a valuation net price of 98.85 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of -2.17 bp, a valuation yield of 2.53%, and a coupon rate of 2.40%. It has an implied rating of AAA - and a subject rating of AAA, with a transaction date of 2025/12/18 [12].

华福证券 2025 年 12 月 21 日 利率回落信用利差被动走扩 长久期弱资质城投承压 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251221 投资要点： ➢ 资金宽松带动利率回落，信用表现滞后利差走扩。本周资金宽松带动 中短端利率显著回落，收益率继续下行，1Y、3Y、5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开 债收益率较上周分别下行 4BP、5BP、3BP、1BP 和 2BP。除 5Y 期中低等 级外信用债收益率多数跟随利率下行，但表现相对滞后，信用利差多数继 续走阔。1Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1-2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益 率多数下行 3BP，AA 级下行 3BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率下行 1BP， 其余等级上行 2-3BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率上行 1BP，其余等级下行 1BP。从信用利差来看，1Y 期 各等级信用利差上行 2-3BP；3Y 期各等级信用利差上行 3-5BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债利差上行 2BP，其余等级上行 5-6BP；7Y 期各等级信用利差持 平；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用利差上行 3BP，其余等级上行 1BP。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke, a representative of Chinese real estate companies, is facing severe financial challenges with a significant debt burden and declining revenues, raising concerns about its survival [1][3]. Debt Crisis and Market Challenges - As of the end of Q3 2025, Vanke's interest-bearing debt reached 3629.3 billion yuan, with 1513.9 billion yuan due within a year, while cash reserves stood at only 656.8 billion yuan, resulting in a cash shortfall exceeding 850 billion yuan [3][4]. - The cash-to-short-term-debt ratio has dropped to a critical level of 0.43, indicating that for every 1 yuan of debt due, there is less than 0.5 yuan available in cash [3][4]. - Vanke's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1613.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.61%, with a net loss exceeding 280 billion yuan, including a loss of 160.7 billion yuan in Q3 alone [3]. Market Reaction - The bond market reacted strongly to Vanke's financial situation, with several bonds experiencing significant declines, including a drop of over 20% for "21 Vanke 04" and "22 Vanke 02," leading to temporary suspensions [4][5]. - Vanke's A-shares fell over 7%, reaching a new low since August 2015, while H-shares also dropped over 7%, hitting a record low since its listing [5]. Self-Rescue Actions and External Support - In response to its financial difficulties, Vanke initiated drastic self-rescue measures, including accelerating asset sales and restructuring its organizational framework from a three-tier to a flatter two-tier system [7]. - The largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided crucial support, lending a total of 291.3 billion yuan to Vanke by Q3 2025 [8]. Leadership Changes - On January 27, 2025, Vanke announced a leadership change, with the chairman of Shenzhen Metro Group, Xin Jie, taking over as chairman of Vanke's board, while former chairman Yu Liang transitioned to the role of executive vice president [9]. Founder’s Return - Vanke's founder, Wang Shi, has re-emerged during this challenging period, expressing his commitment to support the company and its stakeholders [10][12]. - Wang Shi's potential return is viewed positively in the industry, as he possesses extensive experience and connections that could benefit Vanke [14]. Industry Background and Policy Direction - Vanke's struggles reflect broader challenges in the Chinese real estate market, which has seen a 15.9% year-on-year decline in development investment from January to November 2025 [16]. - The market is shifting from a supply-demand imbalance to a more balanced state, with a notable increase in second-hand housing transactions [16]. Strategic Adjustments and Business Transformation - Despite the challenges, Vanke's diversified business segments showed resilience, with revenue from asset management and property services increasing by 21.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [17]. - Vanke is focusing on enhancing its service offerings and adapting to market demands for higher quality housing, moving away from previous expansion strategies based on land price competition [22].

Core Insights - Vanke YunGui has successfully achieved early delivery of multiple projects across various cities, showcasing an efficient engineering management system [1][3][5] Group 1: Early Delivery Achievements - In December, Vanke YunGui completed the delivery of seven projects, with several experiencing early handovers, such as Nanning's Zhenwan Yue 9 days early and Kunming's Jingjiang Yincui 7 days early [3][5] - By December 7, Vanke YunGui had delivered a total of 2,100 units across 11 batches, with 6 projects delivering 1,081 units early, representing over 50% of the total [5][6] Group 2: Nationwide Delivery Strategy - Vanke has delivered 84,167 units nationwide across 197 projects this year, with 38 projects totaling approximately 12,000 units achieving early delivery [6][8] - Notable early deliveries include Guangzhou's Jinmao Vanke Duhui Qishi Shanzhuang at 210 days early and Chengdu's Vanke Jinyu Huafu at 198 days early, indicating a systematic approach rather than mere luck [6][8] Group 3: Management and Quality Control - The early delivery is attributed to a mature management system that emphasizes precision from design to delivery, utilizing digital management and industrialized construction processes [8][9] - Vanke employs technologies like BIM for construction simulation and leverages group supply chain advantages to ensure timely and quality material supply [8][9] Group 4: Commitment to Quality and Trust - The early delivery is not just a demonstration of speed but a testament to Vanke's commitment to quality and customer trust, redefining the perception that fast construction leads to poor quality [10] - Vanke's approach to delivery signifies not only the transfer of property but also the initiation of a quality living experience for homeowners, reinforcing their commitment to customer satisfaction [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "24 Guoyuan 01" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "22 Vanke 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the individual bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. By industry, real estate industry bonds had the largest average deviation in valuation prices [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Guoyuan 01", "Jian Guan VY02", and "24 China Construction MTN002" had significant valuation price deviations in discounted transactions. The industries involved included urban investment, transportation, and building decoration. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to tens of millions of yuan [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds like "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "22 Vanke 06" had large positive deviations in valuation prices. The industries mainly included real estate, non - bank finance, and urban investment. The transaction scales varied from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds such as "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)", "25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 03BC", and "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 02A(BC)" had certain valuation price deviations. Banks involved included state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales were relatively large, reaching tens of millions of yuan to billions of yuan [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds like "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02", "24 China Construction Bank Bond 01B", and "25 Jiangsu Bank Bond 02BC" had valuation price deviations. Banks included joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "24 Chanrong 06" had a transaction yield higher than 5%. The industries mainly included real estate and non - bank finance. The transaction scales were relatively small, mostly in the range of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - Financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportions and Transaction Scales of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The real estate industry had the largest average deviation in non - financial credit bond valuation prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is currently engaged in a liquidity defense battle, focusing on the extension of its debt obligations as a critical strategy to avoid default and manage its financial challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Debt Extension Proposals - Vanke's second debt extension proposal involves a total of 3.7 billion yuan, with a key meeting scheduled for December 22 to vote on the extension [2][5]. - The new proposal includes six distinct measures aimed at enhancing flexibility and addressing creditor concerns, significantly upgrading from previous proposals [3][4]. - The first proposal offers a straightforward 12-month extension for both principal and interest payments without additional conditions [7]. Group 2: Enhanced Security Measures - Subsequent proposals (from the second to the fifth) incorporate increasing levels of credit enhancement to protect investors [8][9]. - The second proposal includes a 12-month extension with a guarantee from Vanke, while the third adds specific guarantees from major local enterprises [9][10]. - The fourth proposal introduces a priority repayment clause, ensuring that Vanke must repay the current bonds before any other debts [10]. - The fifth proposal includes cross-default clauses, triggering immediate repayment if Vanke fails to meet other debt obligations [11]. Group 3: Time Management Strategies - The sixth proposal aims to extend the grace period for payments from 5 working days to 30 trading days, providing Vanke with additional time to negotiate [12][18]. - If the initial vote fails, Vanke will still have a month to negotiate further, highlighting the importance of time in their strategy [13][23]. Group 4: Financial Context and Challenges - Vanke faces significant pressure as it attempts to negotiate two debt extensions simultaneously, with a risk of substantial default if either proposal fails [19][20]. - As of December 3, 2025, Vanke has a total of 20.3 billion yuan in domestic bonds and 1.3 billion USD in foreign bonds, all of which are subject to cross-default clauses [21][22]. - The company is actively seeking to buy time to improve its financial situation, with its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, providing substantial financial support [24][25]. - Despite this support, Vanke's sales performance and overall business conditions remain challenging, making debt extension a crucial path to avoid default [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tenant eviction notices in Shenzhen's "Boyu" rental properties are part of Vanke's strategic adjustment to focus on core quality assets and improve operational efficiency, rather than a general contraction of the long-term rental apartment business [1] Group 1 - Since December, multiple "Boyu" rental tenants in Shenzhen have received eviction notices, affecting over 10 locations including Longhua Guanlan Jincui Community and Longgang Wuhe Dafapu Community [1] - The internal representatives of Boyu indicated that the evictions are primarily targeting low-efficiency or high-risk existing projects [1] - This strategic adjustment aligns with Vanke's goal to enhance operational efficiency and concentrate on high-quality assets [1]