Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has conducted a compliance review regarding the transaction between China Communications Real Estate Group and China Communications Real Estate Co., Ltd., confirming adherence to relevant regulations [1][2] - CICC serves as the independent financial advisor for the transaction, ensuring that there are no direct or indirect paid engagements with third parties in this capacity [1][2] - The listed company has engaged necessary intermediary institutions, including auditing and evaluation agencies, in compliance with legal requirements for the transaction [2] Group 2 - The independent financial advisor concludes that there are no violations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's guidelines regarding the hiring of third parties in investment banking activities [2]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: Guolian Minsheng up 5.4% to HKD 3.92, Everbright Securities up 4.46% to HKD 8.66, CICC up 3.88% to HKD 16.6, CITIC Securities up 2.86% to HKD 10.08, and Huatai Securities up 2.56% to HKD 15.24 [1] - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation in the Shenzhen Comprehensive Reform Pilot" by the Central Committee and the State Council allows companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - This policy is expected to enhance the connectivity between the capital markets of mainland China and Hong Kong, increasing trading activity and opening growth opportunities for brokerage investment banking businesses [1] - Current brokerage valuations are at historical lows, and with market recovery and favorable policies, brokerage businesses such as brokerage, investment banking, and capital intermediary services are likely to benefit, leading to further valuation recovery in the brokerage sector [1] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai on June 18-19, where major financial policies are expected to be announced by central financial management departments [2] - It is anticipated that more policies aimed at activating the capital market will be released, focusing on enhancing the quality of listed companies, market activity, and investor returns [2] - The market sentiment is expected to be catalyzed by the policy announcements during the Lujiazui Forum, according to Donghai Securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that despite increased policy uncertainty in the first half of 2025, the global economy is expected to operate smoothly, with major central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) continuing to lower interest rates [1][2] Economic Outlook - CICC anticipates a convergence of economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, primarily driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2][3] - The resilience of the US private sector balance sheets suggests a low risk of recession, although marginal growth is expected to slow down [2] - Non-US regions benefit from a more accommodative monetary policy environment, with the IMF estimating that the GDP output gap in these regions remains negative [2][4] Regional Analysis - CICC expresses a relatively optimistic view on the European market for the second half of the year, supported by the convergence of economic growth momentum between Europe and the US [3][4] - Emerging markets are expected to see marginal improvements, but overall absolute performance may be limited, necessitating regional selection [4][3] - Japan is viewed cautiously in the short term, but structural opportunities are anticipated as the country moves out of deflation [4][3] Sector Preferences - CICC's sector preferences for the second half of the year, ranked from most to least favored, are: Technology (Communication, Software, Advertising > Electronics > Content), Industrial (Power Equipment > Automation), and Financials [1][2] - CICC maintains a cautious stance on consumer-related sectors and bulk raw materials [1][2]

Group 1 - The Lujiazui Forum will be held on June 18, 2025, where significant financial policies are expected to be announced by central financial management departments [1] - The forum has become a platform for the national financial management departments to release important signals and policies since its inception in 2008, influencing the financial and capital markets [1] - Donghai Securities predicts that with the introduction of more active capital market policies, the quality of listed companies, market activity, and investor returns will improve, further advancing the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [1] Group 2 - Securities firms are expected to benefit directly from the new "National Nine Articles" guiding the top-level design for cultivating first-class investment institutions [1] - The new "National Ten Articles" focuses on high-quality development under a strong regulatory and risk prevention framework for the insurance sector, optimizing product design and enhancing channel value [1] - Financial technology is set to accelerate with the introduction of revolutionary stablecoins, presenting layout opportunities for the financial IT sector as major financial policies are anticipated [1] Group 3 - The recent issuance of opinions by the Central Office and State Office allows enterprises in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - Shenzhen is reportedly developing listing rules to facilitate a trial for red-chip companies to have secondary listings, providing a more efficient channel for tech companies [2] - The dual listing path will likely lead to more technology companies listed in Hong Kong returning to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which is expected to boost the investment banking business of leading securities firms [2]

【 摘要 】国泰海通证券策略团队认为，港股是本轮牛市主战场，结构上恒生科技更优。中金公 司年中策略报告指出，预计A股下半年节奏上或为"前稳后升"。 一、焦点锐评 1．伊朗与以色列或爆发全面战争，避险情绪升温 当地时间6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以空军对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事 设施相关的目标发动空袭。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称，以色列已摧毁被以军称为伊朗最大的地区 铀浓缩设施。随后伊朗开始反击，以色列城市特拉维夫遭袭击，包括10处核设施。同日伊朗正式 退出与美国的核谈判。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊称，伊朗将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 中东紧张局势下，金融市场瞬间作出剧烈反应。国际原油价格飙升。美国原油期货基准合约一度 涨超10%。避险资产现货黄金上涨超1%，突破3420美元/盎司。 【解读】近期伊朗与以色列的冲突已从长期的代理人战争（如黎巴嫩真主党、也门胡塞武装）升 级为直接军事对抗，核心矛盾围绕伊朗核计划、地区影响力争夺及美国战略博弈展开。中东作为 全球30%石油出口和20%液化天然气贸易的核心区域，冲突直接冲击能源供应链。伊朗锌矿出口 占全球 12%、铜矿储量全球第三，冲突可能导致物流中断 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the integration of macroeconomic and industry analysis to explore how macro variables influence industry development and uncover the underlying macro logic behind industry dynamics [1][6]. - The "Macro Salon" program has garnered over 1.2 million views since its launch in August 2024, indicating strong interest and engagement from investors [1][3]. - The program features discussions on current hot topics that are of significant concern to investors, showcasing a dynamic and comprehensive perspective [1][3]. Group 2 - The "CICC Insight" platform is introduced as a one-stop digital research platform aimed at institutional investors, providing a range of research reports, activities, databases, and research frameworks [7]. - The platform covers over 200 industry sub-sectors, nearly 800 stock research frameworks, and more than 1,800 A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas listed companies, enhancing the efficiency and intelligence of investment decision-making [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic variables and their impact on industry dynamics, highlighting the need for informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing market environment [1][9]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - The "Macro Salon" series combines macroeconomic and industry analysis to explore how macro variables influence industry development and uncover the underlying macro logic behind industry dynamics [1]. - Since its launch in August 2024, the program has attracted over 1.2 million views, featuring discussions on current hot topics of interest to investors [2]. Group 2: Digital Research Platform - The "CICC Insight" platform is introduced as a one-stop digital research platform aimed at institutional investors, providing comprehensive research reports, activities, databases, and research frameworks [10]. - The platform covers over 200 industry sub-sectors, nearly 800 stock research frameworks, and more than 1,800 A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas listed companies, facilitating efficient and intelligent investment research decisions [10].

中金公司CICC . 中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）成立于1995年，致力于为多元化的客户群体提供高质量金融增值服务，建立了以研究和信息技术为基础，投资银 行、股票业务、固定收益、资产管理、私募股权和财富管理全方位发展的均衡业务结构。 以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 6月11日至13日，中金公司2025年中期投资策略会在上海成功举办。本次会议以"韧性与重构"为主题，来自政府机构、行业、学界的嘉宾和近500家上 市公司高管汇聚一堂，通过总量主题日的全体大会和之后两天的10场主题分会，围绕市场关注的中国经济与全球资产展望、地缘经济、AI大模型、具 身智能、新消费、高端制造等核心主题进行了前瞻讨论。活动现场，中金研究重磅专题《具身智能：AI下一站》《未来脉动：全球经济的国别视角》 《感受"带路"矿业的心跳》获得参会嘉宾的积极反馈，本次会议共吸引近4000人报名参会。 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生，研究部执行负责人、首席策略分析师缪延亮，首席宏观分析师张文朗，美国宏观首席经济 学家刘政宁，国内策略首席分析师李求索，海外策略首席分析师刘刚发表主题演讲，展望2025年下半 ...

以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 中金公司CICC . 中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）成立于1995年，致力于为多元化的客户群体提供高质量金融增值服务，建立了以研究和信息技术为基础，投资银 行、股票业务、固定收益、资产管理、私募股权和财富管理全方位发展的均衡业务结构。 6月11日至13日，中金公司2025年中期投资策略会在上海成功举办。本次会议以"韧性与重构"为主题，来自政府机构、行业、学界的嘉宾和近500家上 市公司高管汇聚一堂，通过总量主题日的全体大会和之后两天的10场主题分会，围绕市场关注的中国经济与全球资产展望、地缘经济、AI大模型、具 身智能、新消费、高端制造等核心主题进行了前瞻讨论。活动现场，中金研究重磅专题《具身智能：AI下一站》《未来脉动：全球经济的国别视角》 《感受"带路"矿业的心跳》获得参会嘉宾的积极反馈，本次会议共吸引近4000人报名参会。 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生，研究部执行负责人、首席策略分析师缪延亮，首席宏观分析师张文朗，美国宏观首席经济 学家刘政宁，国内策略首席分析师李求索，海外策略首席分析师刘刚发表主题演讲，展望2025年下半 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交易量的修复空间可能更大，届 ...