Core Viewpoint - On November 24, 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. executed a block trade involving 900,000 shares at a transaction value of 13.815 million yuan, with a transaction price of 15.35 yuan per share, indicating stable trading activity in the stock market [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - A block trade of 900,000 shares was recorded on November 24, with a total transaction value of 13.815 million yuan [1]. - The transaction price of 15.35 yuan per share reflects no premium or discount compared to the closing price on that day [1]. - Over the past three months, the stock has seen a total of 12 block trades, accumulating a total transaction value of 277 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The closing price of Luoyang Molybdenum on the day of the block trade was 15.35 yuan, representing a 1.12% increase [1]. - The stock experienced a trading volume of 2.496 billion yuan on that day, with a net inflow of 39.6892 million yuan in main capital [1]. - Over the past five days, the stock has declined by 4.36%, with a total net outflow of 1.238 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Margin Trading Data - The latest margin financing balance for Luoyang Molybdenum is 3.332 billion yuan, which has decreased by 261 million yuan over the past five days, reflecting a decline of 7.26% [1]. Group 4: Company Background - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, with a registered capital of 4.2788620352 billion yuan [1].

11月24日，洛阳钼业大宗交易成交90万股，成交额1381.5万元，占当日总成交额的0.55%，成交价15.35 元，较市场收盘价15.35元持平。 | 交易日期 证券简称 | | 蓬券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 奥出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-24 | 洛阳相业 | 603993 | 15.35 1381.5 | 90 | 机构专用 | 母唇表酒店塑胶的 | | Ka | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CMOC is "Buy" with a target price of HK$20.60, indicating an expected total return of 22.0% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [6][8]. Core Insights - CMOC's net profit in 3Q25 exceeded market expectations, driven by a lower effective tax rate, realized cobalt sales, and strong minor metals prices [2]. - The company anticipates sustainable copper output growth due to technology upgrades, with a guidance of 0.8-1.0 million tonnes (mnt) for 2028E and the KFM phase 2 project expected to operate in 1H27E with an average output of 100,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) [3]. - Copper production costs have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to increased output and cost control measures [4]. - Cobalt output is expected to remain stable despite potential adjustments in production methods, with a total cobalt quota of over 30,000 tonnes allocated for TFM and KFM projects in 2026E [5]. Financial Performance - CMOC's market capitalization is approximately HK$368.41 billion (US$47.40 billion) [6]. - The net financial expenses have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to the repayment of long-term debt [5]. - The DCF valuation methodology used yields a fair-value target price of HK$20.60, based on an 11% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [8].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 2.45%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 3.21% [1][2]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector faced the largest declines, with notable drops in internet healthcare, AI healthcare, biopharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical outsourcing, and innovative drug concepts. Key stocks included: - 3SBio (01530.HK) down 9.44% - WuXi Biologics (01873.HK) down 6.09% - Kingsoft Cloud (01548.HK) down 6.05% - Innovent Biologics (02696.HK) down 5.62% - CanSino Biologics (09926.HK) down 5.39% - JD Health (06618.HK) down 8.6% - Ping An Good Doctor (01833.HK) down 4.28% - Alibaba Health (00241.HK) down 4.46% - Crystal International (02228.HK) down 4.82% - MicroPort Scientific (02252.HK) down 3.55% [3]. Impact of Economic Data - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. This has implications for the valuation and financing of innovative drugs, as the cooling expectations for rate cuts may impact investment sentiment [3]. Commodity and Energy Sector - The weakening expectations for a December rate cut have also affected the U.S. dollar index, which surpassed the 100-point mark, putting pressure on the commodities sector. Key declines included: - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) down 12.47% - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) down 11.93% - Jinchuan Group (06680.HK) down 6.63% - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) down 5.47% - China Aluminum (02600.HK) down 4.85% - Chalco International (02068.HK) down 4.74% [4]. Renewable Energy Sector - The power equipment, photovoltaic, and wind power sectors also performed poorly, with significant declines in: - Northeast Electric (00042.HK) down 7.02% - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) down 7.51% - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) down 5.83% - Yihua Energy (02402.HK) down 6.27% - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) down 6.02% [4]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw notable declines, with: - SMIC (00981.HK) down 6.39% - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) down 6.09% - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) down 3.78% - Beike Micro (02149.HK) down 5.2% [5]. Technology Sector - Other technology-related sectors, including cloud computing and AI, also faced downward pressure, with significant drops in: - Tencent Music (01698.HK) down 5.98% - Baidu (09888.HK) down 5.79% - Alibaba Group (09988.HK) down 4.65% - NetEase (09999.HK) down 3.76% [5].

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a widespread decline, with Luoyang Molybdenum falling by 3.83% to HKD 15.32, Jiangxi Copper down 3.22% to HKD 29.42, Lingbao Gold decreasing by 2.8% to HKD 15.29, and China Aluminum dropping by 2.51% to HKD 10.86 [1] - The decline in non-ferrous stocks is attributed to the weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as the US dollar index surpassed the 100-point mark [1] - The US Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the combined non-farm employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] - Following the data release, swap contracts indicated a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]

Group 1 - The overall performance of non-ferrous metal stocks is declining, with notable drops in companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (-3.83%), Jiangxi Copper (-3.22%), Lingbao Gold (-2.8%), and China Aluminum (-2.51%) [1] - The decline in stock prices is influenced by the weakening expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, as indicated by the rise of the US dollar index above the 100 mark [1] - The US labor statistics report shows that non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, indicating potential economic concerns [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market [1] - Following the release of this data, swap contracts indicate a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 0.57% in stock price, closing at 15.79 yuan, with significant block trades occurring on November 20 [1] Trading Activity - A total of 3 block trades were executed, with a combined trading volume of 2.99 million shares and a total transaction value of 47.21 million yuan [1] - The first trade involved 490,000 shares at a price of 15.79 yuan, totaling 7.73 million yuan, with a premium rate of 0.00% [1] - The second trade involved 1.3 million shares at the same price, totaling 20.53 million yuan, also with a premium rate of 0.00% [1] - The third trade involved 1.2 million shares, totaling 18.95 million yuan, maintaining a premium rate of 0.00% [1] Recent Trading Trends - Over the past three months, the stock has recorded 11 block trades with a cumulative transaction value of 263 million yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 6.24%, with a net outflow of 1.241 billion yuan in principal funds [1]

Group 1 - The core transaction of Luoyang Molybdenum involved 2.99 million shares traded on November 20, with a total transaction value of 47.21 million yuan, accounting for 2.59% of the total trading volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 15.79 yuan, which remained stable compared to the market closing price of 15.79 yuan [1] Group 2 - Specific trading details include a transaction amount of 20.527 million yuan for 130 shares, and another transaction amount of 18.948 million yuan for 120 shares, both at the same price of 15.79 yuan [2] - Additional transactions included a volume of 773.71 thousand shares for a total of 7.7371 million yuan, also at the price of 15.79 yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is a significant player in the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly in cobalt, tungsten, and gold production, with a focus on expanding its precious metals business and enhancing its market position [2][7]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is the second-largest cobalt producer globally, with cobalt products sold in international markets [2]. - The company is involved in the mining and processing of various metals, including copper, molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus, and is recognized as one of the top five molybdenum producers and the largest tungsten producer globally [2][7]. - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is also the second-largest producer of phosphorus fertilizer in Brazil [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [9]. Production and Growth - The company owns 80% of the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold equity production of 16,000 ounces in 2022 and a guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [3]. - In 2025, the company successfully completed the acquisition of Ecuador's Odin Mining (KGHM Gold Mine) and is advancing development work with plans to commence production by 2029 [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the company had 304,200 shareholders, an increase of 28.08% from the previous period [8]. - The main shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable changes in their holdings [9]. Market Position - The company operates within the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically in industrial metals like copper, and is associated with various investment concepts such as niobium and MSCI China [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]