Economic Growth - The economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5%, with nominal and real growth rates converging [2][20] - Actual growth is showing a "front high and back low" pattern rather than a "U-shaped" recovery [20] Fiscal Policy - The broad fiscal expenditure is better than last year, with the deficit rate raised to 4% and a debt relief plan of 10 trillion yuan to ease local fiscal pressure [3][4] - The government report confirms a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan and a debt replacement scale of 10 trillion yuan, with significant increases in education and social security spending [4][21] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with potential for more significant rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2024 [5][22] - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut in May released approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, and the yuan appreciated instead of depreciating [5][22] Credit Cycle - M1 growth turned positive, reaching 4.9% in November, but the social financing growth did not follow the predicted "two ends low, middle high" pattern [7][24] - The actual social financing growth showed a "front high and steady" trend, with an 8.5% growth in November [24] International Relations - Economic disturbances primarily stem from U.S.-China relations, but macro policies have effectively mitigated impacts, with increasing pragmatism in China-Europe relations [8][25] - Cooperation among global southern countries is gaining momentum, evidenced by various agreements and initiatives [8][25] Exchange Rate - The prediction of the yuan remaining in a weak range of 7.3-7.5 was completely incorrect, as the yuan appreciated throughout the year due to strong economic resilience and unexpected export performance [10][27] Export Situation - External demand slowdown and tariff pressures led to a negative export growth in October, but overall performance was stronger than expected, with a 5.4% growth from January to November [12][29] Real Estate Market - Core areas in first-tier cities have stabilized, and new first-tier cities are expected to stop declining by mid-2025, although recent data shows some instability in housing prices [13][31] Domestic Demand Expansion - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods are in place, but the actual growth in retail sales fell short of the 5% target, with a total growth of 4.0% from January to November [15][32] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The implementation of market value assessments and increased mergers and acquisitions led by state-owned enterprises has been confirmed, with significant investments in traditional and emerging industries [16][33]

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨专题报告丨多元金融 [Table_Title] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 三年收缩后，2025 年迎来了向上拐点，业务量及收入均显著 提升。同时受科创板行情回暖影响，2025 年券商科创板跟投收益大幅改善。展望 2026 年，随 着市场交投及权益自营基数走高，传统经纪及自营收入弹性减弱背景下，投行承销收入及跟投 收益有望成为券商业绩的重要边际增量。看好龙头券商有望以资源、规模优势持续巩固竞争优 势，推荐国泰海通、中信证券、中金公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title2] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ [Table_Summary2] 券商投行业务经历三年收紧周期后，迎来向上修复拐点 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 ...

Core Insights - In December, 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs, primarily in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and military (aerospace) sectors, indicating strong market consensus on these areas [2][11] - Established sectors like communication and non-ferrous metals are seen as core investment themes, while emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace are gaining traction amid market volatility [1][3] Group 1: Performance of ETFs - The communication ETFs saw an average increase of 10% since October, with an annual average increase of 91.5% [2][12] - Non-ferrous metal ETFs experienced an average increase of 20.1% since October, with an annual average increase of 95.2% [2][12] - Military and aerospace ETFs had an average increase of 18.7% since October, with satellite ETFs rising by an average of 34.5% [2][12] Group 2: Emerging Investment Themes - Commercial aerospace is viewed as an active investment choice during market fluctuations, similar to previous low-altitude themes, driven by narratives around US-China space infrastructure competition [3][4] - The commercial aerospace sector, while promising, does not match the scale of humanoid robotics or low-altitude economies, indicating a more modest growth potential [4][14] Group 3: Under-the-Radar Sectors - Sectors like chemicals and engineering machinery are quietly rising and have reached new annual highs, reflecting China's manufacturing competitiveness and pricing power [5][15] - These sectors are characterized by low media attention and fragmented industry discussions, making them susceptible to being overlooked despite their potential for profit margin improvement [5][15] Group 4: Anti-Inflation Trends - Sectors related to anti-inflation, such as new energy and steel, are showing signs of recovery, with market sensitivity to supply dynamics increasing [6][16] - Recent supply chain disruptions in the new energy sector have led to positive stock price reactions, indicating market expectations for tangible supply reductions [6][16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, focusing on sectors with low heat and concentration but increasing attention and potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy [7][17] - The strategy also includes monitoring the trend of RMB appreciation, with sectors like brokerage and insurance being positioned as both offensive and defensive choices [7][17]

智通财经记者 | 邹文榕 时隔三年，"家纺龙头"富安娜（002327.SZ）诉中信证券（600030.SH）固定收益类理财产品逾期兑付一 案迎来最新进展。 12月25日，富安娜公告，公司诉中信证券、招商银行（600036.SH）广州分行的金融委托理财合同纠纷 案已收到深圳市福田区人民法院的一审判决书。 判决认定，中信证券应于判决生效之日起十日内，向富安娜赔偿本金损失2928.63万元；判决生效后， 对于涉案资管计划后续清算收回的款项，由富安娜和中信证券按50%：50%的比例平分，并且支付被告 中信证券的款项以被告中信证券赔偿款项2928.63万元为上限。 两高（上海）律师事务所高级合伙人应越向智通财经记者分析，从判决提到的"后续清算收回的款项由 富安娜和中信证券按50%：50%的比例平分"可推算，本次中信证券对富安娜的本金损失承担50%的赔偿 责任，由此又可以倒推中信证券承担比较大的过错。 "在相关理财损失案件赔偿责任认定当中，重大过错要赔付70%以上，一般过错赔偿50%左右，轻微过 错承担20%左右责任。"应越解释，"虽然没有看到案件判决书，但从上市公司披露内容看，中信证券在 本次一审法院角度存在较大过错。 ...

今天分享的是：中信证券：AI泡沫质疑声中的韧性市场 报告共计：113页 AI泡沫质疑声中的2026年全球市场韧性展望 《AI泡沫质疑声中的韧性市场》报告指出，2025年全球市场在降息周期、科技景气与美元弱势三大因素驱动下，呈现股强于债、科技强于防御的结构性行 情，2026年市场虽面临AI泡沫争议等不确定性，但整体将保持韧性，多领域仍存明确投资机遇。 2025年市场回顾与核心驱动 2025年全球大类资产表现分化显著，黄金以62.8%的涨幅领跑，港股上涨29.5%，美股、欧洲股票等也实现稳健增长。债券市场中，美国投资级债、高收益 债均保持正收益，中资美元债表现亮眼。 核心驱动因素包括美联储预防式降息释放流动性，AI技术推动科技产业景气度提升，美元走弱为新兴市场和贵金属带来支撑。其中，AI相关板块成为关键 主线，中概互联网板块全年涨幅显著，半导体、算力相关资产受产业链需求驱动表现突出。 2026年三大核心投资主题 美国降息周期延续：美联储后续仍有降息空间，新任主席人选将影响降息节奏。预防式降息有望推动股市继续上涨，美股业绩预期持续上修，港股、韩股及 新兴市场股票将受益于流动性外溢，高收益债也将因融资成本下降获得支撑 ...

中国经济网北京12月27日讯 深圳证券交易所上市审核委员会2025年第36次审议会议于2025年12月 26日召开，审议结果显示，杭州福恩股份有限公司（简称"福恩股份"）首发符合发行条件、上市条件和 信息披露要求。这是今年过会的第106家企业（其中，上交所和深交所一共过会60家，北交所过会46 家）。 福恩股份的保荐机构为中信证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人为蔡斌、郭阳。这是中信证券今年保荐 成功的第12单IPO项目。此前，2月21日，中信证券保荐的江苏汉邦科技股份有限公司过会；4月18日， 中信证券保荐的广州瑞立科密汽车电子股份有限公司过会；7月11日，中信证券保荐的北矿检测技术股 份有限公司过会；8月14日，中信证券保荐的西安奕斯伟材料科技股份有限公司过会；9月19日，中信证 券保荐的苏州市新广益电子股份有限公司过会；9月26日，中信证券保荐的苏州摩尔线程智能科技（北 京）股份有限公司过会；10月15日，中信证券保荐的厦门优迅芯片股份有限公司过会；11月7日，中信 证券保荐的浙江海圣医疗器械股份有限公司过会；11月14日，中信证券保荐的深圳市恒运昌真空技术股 份有限公司过会；12月9日，中信证券保荐的广州慧谷 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to issue up to 33,108,000 overseas listed ordinary shares and list them on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The company must report any significant events to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) through the filing management information system from the date of the filing notice until the completion of the overseas issuance and listing [1] - After the overseas issuance and listing, the company is required to report the issuance and listing situation to the CSRC within 15 working days [1] Group 2 - Stone Technology submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 27, 2025, with JPMorgan and CITIC Securities as joint sponsors [2] - Founded in 2014, Stone Technology is a global leader in the smart home robotics sector, focusing on meeting consumer needs through technologically advanced products and solutions, including smart vacuum robots and other smart home cleaning products [2] - According to data from Frost & Sullivan, Stone Technology is the number one brand of smart vacuum robots globally in 2024, with market shares of 23.4% in GMV and 16.7% in sales volume [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology is becoming a key enabler for the performance revolution in the next generation of robotics, addressing the core demands of lightweight, high responsiveness, and high energy efficiency in robotic joints [1] Group 1: GaN Technology Benefits - GaN-based servo drivers can achieve a volume reduction of approximately 50% [1] - Power loss can be reduced by 50% to 70%, leading to more compact joint designs, longer endurance, and more agile motion control for robots [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended towards leading domestic suppliers that can assist overseas manufacturers like Tesla in gradually reducing costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the CITIC Securities asset management default case, highlighting a court ruling that requires CITIC Securities to compensate Fuanna for losses incurred from a failed investment product [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - On December 25, Fuanna announced it had filed a lawsuit against CITIC Securities and China Merchants Bank Guangzhou Branch regarding a financial trust contract dispute, receiving a first-instance judgment that mandates CITIC Securities to compensate Fuanna for a principal loss of 29.3 million yuan [2][5]. - The court ruling states that CITIC Securities must pay Fuanna within 10 days of the judgment's effectiveness, and any subsequent recovery from the asset management plan will be split equally between Fuanna and CITIC Securities [5]. Group 2: Investment Details - In 2021, Fuanna invested 120 million yuan in a customized asset management plan from CITIC Securities, which defaulted on repayment after its maturity in March 2022 [3]. - The main holdings of the investment included products from Dongfanghong Money B and Beida Resources Hangzhou Haigang City, the latter being associated with a well-known "unfinished building" project that has defaulted [3]. Group 3: Financial Impact - As of the end of 2024, Fuanna had withdrawn 14.3023 million yuan from the management account of the investment product, with a remaining principal of 105.6977 million yuan and expected fixed income yet to be recovered [4]. - CITIC Securities reported that the net asset value of the investment product was 77.7261 million yuan at the end of 2024, and Fuanna has recognized a total impairment of 27.9716 million yuan related to the overdue amounts [4]. Group 4: Clarifications and Market Reactions - Following the default incident, there were market rumors suggesting that CITIC Securities might only act as a channel for the investment, which Fuanna clarified was untrue, asserting that CITIC was the actual investment manager and that there were no connections to the underlying assets [6].

本次保荐代表人变更后，公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券项目持续督导的保荐代表人为石祎弓先 生和章洪量先生，持续督导期至中国证券监督管理委员会和上海证券交易所规定的持续督导义务结束为 止。 公司董事会对保荐代表人汤鲁阳先生在持续督导期间所做的贡献表示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 证券代码：688678 证券简称：福立旺 公告编号：2025-073 转债代码：118043 转债简称：福立转债 福立旺精密机电（中国）股份有限公司 关于变更持续督导保荐代表人的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 福立旺精密机电（中国）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到中信证券股份有限公司(以下简 称"中信证券")出具的《关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的函》。 中信证券作为公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券项目的保荐人，原委派汤鲁阳先生、石祎弓先生作 为持续督导保荐代表人。 保荐代表人汤鲁阳先生因工作变动原因，不再担任公司持续督导的保荐代表人。为保证持续督导工作的 有序进行，中信证券现委派章洪量先生接替汤鲁阳先生继续履行持续督导责 ...