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2025.12. 22 本文字数：1269，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家网信办12月20日联合发布的《互联网平台价格行为规则》 （下称《规则》）明确要求，不得以低于成本的价格销售商品。 奶酪基金投资经理潘俊表示，《规则》明确禁止"以低于成本的价格销售商品或者提供服务"等不正 当竞争行为，并要求动态定价、补贴促销等规则公开透明，目的是为了规范平台价格行为、禁止低价 倾销、价格欺诈、强制补贴等，保护消费者和平台内经营者权益，推动平台经济健康发展。 潘俊认为，《规则》将削弱平台"烧钱换市场份额"的能力。美团、京东集团、阿里巴巴今年的外卖 大战，在规则落地后补贴空间压缩，对行业盈利能力修复是利好。预计恶性"价格战"结束后，互联 网平台可聚焦效率提升、人工智能AI应用、供应链优化，提高盈利可持续性，AI科技属性提高后，估 值也会有提升空间。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭称，此前部分平台通过大额补贴抢占市场份额，整个产业链难以实现盈利， 《规定》希望通过限制低于成本价销售的行为，遏制这种趋势。然而执行层面仍面临较大挑战，当前 互联网平台销售的商品和服务部分为非标准化产品，与工 ...

2025.12.22 《规则》还明确："平台经营者、平台内经营者不得违反《中华人民共和国价格法》第十四条第二项规 定，以排挤竞争对手或者独占市场为目的，以低于成本的价格销售商品或者提供服务，扰乱正常的生产 经营秩序，损害国家利益或者其他经营者合法权益。降价处理鲜活商品、季节性商品、积压商品、临期 商品等商品，或者有正当理由降价提供服务的除外。" 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，《规则》的发布，对依赖补贴和低价策略吸引用户 的部分互联网平台公司来说，将促使这些企业重新审视定价策略和商业模式，需要转向更加健康可持续 的发展路径，例如提升服务质量和产品差异化。短期内，部分公司的营收增长可能面临一定压力，但长 期来看有利于行业健康发展。 奶酪基金投资经理潘俊表示，《规则》明确禁止"以低于成本的价格销售商品或者提供服务"等不正当竞 争行为，并要求动态定价、补贴促销等规则公开透明，目的是为了规范平台价格行为、禁止低价倾销、 价格欺诈、强制补贴等，保护消费者和平台内经营者权益，推动平台经济健康发展。 潘俊认为，《规则》将削弱平台"烧钱换市场份额"的能力。美团、京东集团、阿里巴巴今年的外卖大 战，在规则落地后 ...

国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家网信办12月20日联合发布的《互联网平台价格行为规则》（下称 《规则》）明确要求，不得以低于成本的价格销售商品。 《规则》还明确："平台经营者、平台内经营者不得违反《中华人民共和国价格法》第十四条第二项规 定，以排挤竞争对手或者独占市场为目的，以低于成本的价格销售商品或者提供服务，扰乱正常的生产 经营秩序，损害国家利益或者其他经营者合法权益。降价处理鲜活商品、季节性商品、积压商品、临期 商品等商品，或者有正当理由降价提供服务的除外。" 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，《规则》的发布，对依赖补贴和低价策略吸引用户 的部分互联网平台公司来说，将促使这些企业重新审视定价策略和商业模式，需要转向更加健康可持续 的发展路径，例如提升服务质量和产品差异化。短期内，部分公司的营收增长可能面临一定压力，但长 期来看有利于行业健康发展。 有业内人士认为，这将让当前如火如荼的平台"价格战"快速降温，香港上市的这些互联网平台估值有提 升空间。不过，如何定义"低于成本"，需要更明确的标准。预计部分企业将会调整经营策略，受益需要 一定的时间。长期来看，有利于行业发展。 截至12月22日 ...

港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，《规则》的发布，对依赖补贴和低价策略吸引用户 的部分互联网平台公司来说，将促使这些企业重新审视定价策略和商业模式，需要转向更加健康可持续 的发展路径，例如提升服务质量和产品差异化。短期内，部分公司的营收增长可能面临一定压力，但长 期来看有利于行业健康发展。 奶酪基金投资经理潘俊表示，《规则》明确禁止"以低于成本的价格销售商品或者提供服务"等不正当竞 争行为，并要求动态定价、补贴促销等规则公开透明，目的是为了规范平台价格行为、禁止低价倾销、 价格欺诈、强制补贴等，保护消费者和平台内经营者权益，推动平台经济健康发展。 潘俊认为，《规则》将削弱平台"烧钱换市场份额"的能力。美团、京东集团、阿里巴巴今年的外卖大 战，在规则落地后补贴空间压缩，对行业盈利能力修复是利好。预计恶性"价格战"结束后，互联网平台 可聚焦效率提升、人工智能AI应用、供应链优化，提高盈利可持续性，AI科技属性提高后，估值也会 有提升空间。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭称，此前部分平台通过大额补贴抢占市场份额，整个产业链难以实现盈利， 《规定》希望通过限制低于成本价销售的行为，遏制这种趋势。然而执行层面仍面 ...

Group 1 - Liu Qiangdong, the founder and chairman of JD Group, is affectionately referred to by various nicknames, reflecting the respect and gratitude from his hometown community in Suqian, Jiangsu [2] - On January 8, 2025, Liu Qiangdong distributed cash gifts and New Year supplies to elderly villagers and former teachers, showcasing his commitment to his roots and community [4] - The event garnered significant media attention, with nearly 70 million exposures across various platforms, highlighting the impact of Liu's philanthropic efforts [4] Group 2 - Liu Qiangdong's contributions extend beyond his hometown, positively influencing the lives of ordinary people, such as a single mother who expressed gratitude for his support [6] - The story of a retired courier, who achieved home ownership and stability through his work at JD Logistics, illustrates the company's role in transforming lives [6] - Liu Qiangdong's presence at local sports events demonstrates his ongoing connection to his hometown and commitment to supporting local culture [6][7] Group 3 - The narratives surrounding Liu Qiangdong emphasize his dual identity as a successful entrepreneur and a devoted son of Jiangsu, embodying the spirit of giving back to the community [7]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is shifting its focus back to the industry itself, avoiding price wars on platforms and emphasizing the optimization of its supply chain to create long-term value [2][4][17] Group 1: Strategic Approach - JD.com's founder Liu Qiangdong emphasizes a decision-making framework called "strategic three questions" for entering new industries, focusing on identifying pain points, leveraging JD's strengths to address them, and ensuring long-term value creation [3][4] - The company aims to avoid entering already saturated markets where competition leads to low profits, instead seeking opportunities in industries with significant dissatisfaction among merchants and consumers [4][5] Group 2: Supply Chain Optimization - JD.com is implementing a "super supply chain" strategy, which involves deep engagement in every aspect of the product lifecycle, from design to after-sales service, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4][6] - The company is not merely a platform for transactions but is actively involved in improving product quality and supply chain processes, contrasting with competitors like Alibaba and Meituan that focus on traffic and matchmaking [4][12] Group 3: New Business Ventures - In 2023, JD.com expanded into food delivery and hospitality, launching initiatives like the Seven Fresh Kitchen and focusing on improving supply chain efficiency in these sectors [6][7] - The company is also innovating in the apparel sector by segmenting products into detailed categories based on consumer preferences, leading to higher sales concentration with fewer SKUs [7][8] Group 4: Long-term Value Creation - JD.com operates on a long-term value creation model, prioritizing sustainable profits over short-term gains, and sharing profits with partners to foster a healthy ecosystem [13][14] - The company believes that enhancing the profitability of upstream participants in the supply chain will lead to better investment in innovation and a positive feedback loop [9][10] Group 5: Efficiency and Innovation - JD.com is focused on improving operational efficiency across the supply chain, including logistics and inventory management, to ensure faster delivery and better service [15][16] - The company is leveraging data analytics to optimize inventory placement and streamline operations, aiming to reduce costs and improve service quality [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The high base effect from national subsidies is expected to constrain short-term performance in the home appliance category, impacting revenue and profit growth for the company [1] - The company is projected to face revenue growth pressure in Q4 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by only 0.4% year-on-year to 348.4 billion yuan, compared to a 14.9% increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the efficiency of the company's takeaway business and the effectiveness of cross-selling new users to its e-commerce platform [1] - Anticipated policies to stimulate consumption in the home appliance sector in 2026 may provide support for the company's performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is adjusted to 1,305.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.9% from previous estimates [11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 27.1 billion yuan, 23.1 billion yuan, and 41.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant declines due to the tapering effect of national subsidies [4][11] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 2.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates [11] Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 38.70 USD per ADS and 150.58 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a decrease from previous values [14] - The valuation for the retail business is set at 23.77 USD per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 8.0 times the 2026 forecast, which is below the comparable company average [14][15] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown, with online retail sales growth decelerating to 5.7% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025, influenced by high base effects from previous national subsidy programs [2] - The company’s performance in the home appliance category saw a significant decline, with retail sales dropping by 19.4% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing policies, which could support the company’s performance in the consumer goods sector [3] - The report suggests that the company’s performance may improve if the domestic demand policies are effectively implemented [3]

Core Insights - The opening of JD Fresh's first store in Shijiazhuang has sparked a "frenzy" among consumers, with various products selling out rapidly, indicating strong demand and effective market penetration [1][2][3] Group 1: Store Opening and Consumer Response - The store opening on December 19 attracted long queues despite near-zero temperatures, showcasing high consumer interest [2][5] - Popular items included "7-day fresh eggs" and Chilean cherries, which experienced a "sell out-replenish-sell out" cycle throughout the day [2][5][7] - The store's unique offerings, such as freshly baked pastries, drew significant attention, with over 10,000 freshly baked egg tarts sold on the opening day [9][11] Group 2: Product Highlights - The "7-day fresh eggs" gained consumer trust due to their strict freshness guarantee, becoming the top-selling item [5][11] - High-quality products like fresh pork ribs and lamb rolls were also popular due to their perceived value [5][11] - JD Fresh's self-branded products, such as milk and various snacks, were well-received for their affordability and quality, leading to rapid sales [11][13] Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Strategy - The success of the store is attributed to JD's robust supply chain capabilities, allowing for direct sourcing and quick replenishment of fresh products [16] - The store's offerings were tailored to local consumer preferences, emphasizing health-conscious options and fresh produce, which resonated with the community [16]

Group 1 - JD's private label business recently experienced significant personnel changes, with the departure of a new executive from Sam's Club and the reassignment of former head Tang Hengsheng to JD Industrial [2][3] - The introduction of the new executive was reportedly due to dissatisfaction with the overall performance of the private label business under Tang Hengsheng's management [3] - JD's private label initiative began in 2015, launching brands like "Jiabai" and "Jingzao," and has since expanded to include various product lines targeting different market segments [3][4] Group 2 - JD is consolidating its strategy by focusing resources on its core brands, Jingzao and Huixun, while eliminating underperforming categories [4] - The private label division has reportedly been disbanded, with its business lines integrated into other related business groups, although this information has not been confirmed [4] - JD Industrial is also entering the private label space, launching sub-brands aimed at industrial products, which may explain Tang Hengsheng's transfer [4]