Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are showing marginal improvement in 2024, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in gaming and expectations of turning profitable in Q3 [1]. - The advertising business is anticipated to become a significant growth engine, with a projected 28% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q2 2024 [1]. - The new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with initial month revenue estimates around 7.6 billion RMB [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - Estimated Q2 2024 revenue is projected at 6.11 billion RMB, representing a 15% year-over-year increase. Revenue breakdown includes gaming at 960 million RMB (up 8%), VAS at 2.65 billion RMB (up 15%), advertising at 2.01 billion RMB (up 28%), and e-commerce at 480 million RMB (down 11%) [1]. Profitability Outlook - Expected gross profit for Q2 2024 is 1.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 29.5%. The adjusted net loss is anticipated to be 340 million RMB [1]. Gaming Performance - The new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" has shown strong initial performance, ranking in the top 5 of iOS game sales shortly after its launch. The first month revenue is estimated at approximately 0.36 million USD, translating to about 7.6 billion RMB across all channels [1]. Advertising Business - The advertising revenue is expected to grow by 28% year-over-year to 2.01 billion RMB, accounting for 33% of total revenue. The number of advertisers has increased by 50% in the first half of 2024 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 26.7 billion RMB, 29.7 billion RMB, and 31.9 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a 2% increase from previous estimates [1].

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili Inc. is set to report its second quarter 2024 unaudited financial results on August 22, 2024, before U.S. market opening, highlighting its ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with investors [1]. Group 1: Financial Reporting - The earnings conference call will take place at 8:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on August 22, 2024, allowing stakeholders to engage directly with the company's management [1]. - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the company's investor relations website, ensuring accessibility for a wider audience [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Bilibili is recognized as a leading video community in China, focusing on enriching the lives of young generations through diverse video content [3]. - The company has established a unique community by fostering high-quality content and emotional connections among users, which enhances the overall viewing experience [3]. - Bilibili's innovative "bullet chatting" feature allows real-time audience interaction, significantly transforming user engagement during video consumption [3].

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili Inc. is set to report its second quarter 2024 unaudited financial results on August 22, 2024, before U.S. market opening, with a conference call scheduled for the same day [1]. Group 1: Financial Reporting - The second quarter 2024 unaudited financial results will be announced on August 22, 2024 [1]. - An earnings conference call will take place at 8:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on August 22, 2024 [1]. - Participants must register online to receive dial-in numbers and a personal PIN for the conference call [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, focusing on enriching the lives of young generations [3]. - The platform offers a diverse range of video content and emphasizes community engagement through features like "bullet chatting" [3]. - Bilibili aims to promote Chinese culture globally while fostering strong emotional connections among its users [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $20.00 or HKD 156.23, indicating a potential upside of 28.80% from the current stock price [2][6][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 reached RMB 5.66 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, slightly above market expectations. The gross margin improved to 28.3%, up 6.5 percentage points, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-margin advertising business and cost optimization [2]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the next quarter, with a slight increase in gross margin, and aims to reach breakeven in Non-GAAP operating profit by Q3 [2]. - The gaming business is anticipated to recover in the second half of the year, driven by the launch of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 264 billion, RMB 291 billion, and RMB 309 billion, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 11.2% [4][6]. - The company is expected to report net losses of RMB -18 million in 2024, narrowing to RMB -2 million in 2025, and achieving a profit of RMB 5 million in 2026, with net profit margins improving from -6.7% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2026 [4][6]. - The gross margin is projected to increase from 29.8% in 2024 to 32.8% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue for 2022 was RMB 21.9 billion, with projections of RMB 22.5 billion in 2023, RMB 26.4 billion in 2024, RMB 29.2 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.9 billion in 2026 [5][8]. - The revenue from gaming is expected to recover, with estimates of RMB 5.2 billion in 2024 and RMB 5.6 billion in 2025 [5]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 7.96 billion in 2024 and RMB 9.29 billion in 2025 [5]. User Growth and Engagement - The company reported a 9.0% year-on-year increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) to 100 million and an 8.3% increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU) to 340 million [2]. - The number of official members grew by 15.1% year-on-year to 240 million, with paid members reaching 21.9 million [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to $20.00 from the previous $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current price of $16.71 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.135 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by new game releases exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms" has been strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual game revenue forecast to RMB 54 billion for 2024 and RMB 67 billion for 2025, with expected growth rates of 34% and 23% respectively [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its advertising capabilities and expanding its e-commerce initiatives, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of RMB 21.899 billion in 2022, with projections of RMB 22.528 billion in 2023, RMB 26.585 billion in 2024, and RMB 30.207 billion in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][10]. - The net loss is expected to narrow from RMB 6.692 billion in 2022 to RMB 3.425 billion in 2023, and further to RMB 478 million in 2024, with a projected return to profitability in 2025 [4][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.6% in 2022 to 30.8% in 2024, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased revenue from advertising [10][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games is projected to grow from RMB 4.021 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.405 billion in 2024, while value-added services (VAS) and advertising revenues are also expected to see significant increases [7][10]. - The report highlights that advertising revenue is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year in Q2 2024, driven by improved ad distribution strategies and product enhancements [2][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.37 billion and a 52-week price range between $8.94 and $19.07 [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for further growth in the gaming and advertising sectors, particularly with the upcoming launch of new games and enhancements in advertising technology [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of **$20.50**, implying a potential upside of **22.7%** from the current price of **$16.71** [1][3] Core Views - Bilibili's **community ecosystem** and **commercialization** are showing healthy growth, with **user stickiness** and **commercial value** improving due to the expansion of diversified content categories such as knowledge and consumer-related content [1] - The company's **commercial infrastructure** has been enhanced, leading to a **50% YoY increase** in the number of advertisers and a **100% YoY growth** in GMV from live-streaming e-commerce in 1H24 [1] - The **gaming business** has entered its third "five-year plan," focusing on both self-developed and agency games, with plans to launch at least two new long-term vertical games in the next five years [1] - The short-term catalyst for the stock is the **better-than-expected performance** of the mobile game *San Mou*, while the long-term outlook is positive due to the company's improving **commercialization capabilities** and **profitability** [1] Content Ecosystem - Bilibili has expanded its content categories beyond traditional strengths, with **knowledge and consumer-related content** growing rapidly, contributing to a **5 percentage point increase** in the share of diversified content video views [1][7] - In 1H24, video views (VV) for **automotive/travel/home improvement** categories grew by **48%/40%/43% YoY**, respectively, driving higher **creator revenue** and **user spending** on the platform [1][7] - **Creator revenue** increased by **32% YoY** in 1H24, with income from **Hua Huo orders/charging/classroom projects** growing by **31%/371%/52% YoY**, respectively [7] - The number of users with **spending behavior** on the platform grew by **71% YoY** in 1H24 [7] Commercialization Infrastructure - Bilibili has improved its **advertising infrastructure** through: 1) enhanced ad distribution by optimizing user experience and ad load rates, 2) better ad creatives using AIGC technology, 3) integrated ad tools like *Bi Huo Mobile*, which saw **300% YoY growth** in ad revenue in 1H24, and 4) improved data insights for advertisers via *B-Data* and *Z-Index* [1][8] - The number of advertisers on the platform increased by **50% YoY** in 1H24, with **game industry ad revenue** growing over **30% YoY** and **internet services/education/finance ad revenue** growing over **100% YoY** [8] - During the **618 shopping festival**, platform GMV grew by **146% YoY**, and ad revenue increased by over **30% YoY**, with new customer acquisition rates exceeding **50%** for e-commerce platforms [8] Gaming Business - The success of *San Mou* is attributed to its **differentiated positioning**, **reduced user burden** (shorter playtime and lower in-game item prices), and **innovative content** tailored for young users [9] - Bilibili's gaming strategy focuses on: 1) developing games that appeal to young users, 2) a dual approach of **self-development and agency**, 3) maintaining leadership in content-driven games, and 4) launching at least two new **long-term vertical games** in the next five years [1][9] - The company expects the gaming business to become a **major profit driver** in the long term, supported by the **long lifecycle** of SLG games and the team's commitment to **user experience** and **content quality** [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 25.5 billion in FY24E** to **RMB 29.3 billion in FY26E**, with **gross margins** improving from **30.0% in FY24E** to **34.3% in FY26E** [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in **FY25E** at **RMB 1.16 billion**, increasing to **RMB 1.44 billion in FY26E** [2] - The company's **P/S ratio** is expected to decline from **2.0x in FY24E** to **1.7x in FY26E**, reflecting improving profitability [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown strong performance, with **1-month/3-month/6-month absolute returns** of **16.1%/45.6%/56.9%**, outperforming the market in relative terms [5] - The company's **market cap** stands at **$6.91 billion**, with **52-week high/low prices** of **$19.07/$8.94** [4]

哔哩哔哩-SW (09626.HK) 2024 年 07 月 04 日 投资评级:买入(首次) | 日期 | 2024/7/4 | |-------------------------|---------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 125.50 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 151.30/67.800 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 528.68 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 518.31 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 4.21 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 4.13 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 71.1 | | 股价走势图 | | 哔哩哔哩-W 恒生指数 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 数据来源:聚源 传媒/数字媒体 游戏、会员、广告、IP 变现全面发力,商业化提速 ——港股公司首次覆盖报告 方光照(分析师) 田鹏(分析师) fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520030004 tianpeng@kysec.cn 证书编号:S07 ...

Core Points - Bilibili Inc. held its annual general meeting in Shanghai, where all proposed resolutions were adopted [1] - Key resolutions included the re-election of directors, granting of mandates for share issuance and repurchase, and approval of a share incentive plan [2] Group 1: Corporate Governance - Mr. Rui Chen was re-elected as a director, along with Mr. JP Gan and Mr. Eric He as independent directors [2] - Directors were granted a general mandate to allot and issue additional Class Z ordinary shares and to repurchase Bilibili's own shares [2] Group 2: Share Incentive Plan - The second amended and restated 2018 share incentive plan was approved, allowing for the issuance of shares not exceeding 10% of Bilibili's total issued and outstanding shares [2] - Of the total shares, a maximum of 0.5% may be issued to service provider participants as defined in the plan [2] Group 3: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, focusing on enriching the lives of young generations through diverse video content [3] - The company is known for its "bullet chatting" feature, enhancing user engagement by displaying real-time comments during video viewing [3]

Core Points - Bilibili Inc. held its annual general meeting in Shanghai, where all proposed resolutions were adopted [1][2] - Mr. Rui Chen was re-elected as a director, along with Mr. JP Gan and Mr. Eric He as independent directors [2] - The company received a general mandate to allot and issue additional Class Z ordinary shares and to repurchase its own shares [2] - The second amended and restated 2018 share incentive plan was approved, allowing for the issuance of shares not exceeding 10% of the total issued and outstanding shares, with a limit of 0.5% for service provider participants [2] Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, targeting young generations with a mission to enrich their everyday lives [3] - The platform offers a diverse range of video content and is known for its "bullet chatting" feature, enhancing user engagement [3] - Bilibili aims to promote Chinese culture globally while fostering a strong community among content creators and users [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [3][8]. Core Views - The company has seen significant growth in its gaming revenue, particularly from the newly launched mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World," which reached the third position on the iOS bestseller list shortly after its release. This is expected to contribute substantially to the company's game revenue for the year 2024 [3]. - The company's performance during the 618 shopping festival showed a remarkable increase in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume), with a year-on-year growth of 146%. This indicates a strong improvement in the platform's monetization capabilities [3]. - The report projects an increase in revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with expected revenues of RMB 26.18 billion, RMB 29.59 billion, and RMB 32.74 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected sales revenue for 2024 is RMB 26,181 million, with a growth rate of 16% compared to 2023. The non-GAAP net profit is expected to be a loss of RMB 465 million, improving to a profit of RMB 1,250 million in 2025 and RMB 1,959 million in 2026 [4][6]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's operating income, with expectations of reaching RMB 29,588 million in 2025 and RMB 32,737 million in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance of 40.3% over the past months compared to the Hang Seng Index, indicating strong market interest and potential [2]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is reported at HKD 539.77 million, reflecting active trading and investor engagement [2]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Chen Rui, holds a 12.1% stake in the company, indicating a significant level of insider investment [2]. Game Revenue Contribution - The newly launched mobile game is expected to significantly boost the company's game revenue, with projections of RMB 8.91 million, RMB 9.92 million, and RMB 10.07 million for Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2023 respectively [3]. E-commerce Growth - The report highlights a 93% increase in advertising revenue during the 618 shopping festival, with the number of advertisers on the platform increasing by 313% year-on-year [3]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 50.6 and 32.3 respectively, indicating a potential for growth in earnings relative to the stock price [4][6].