出境游/国际业务高增,助推 Q2 业绩超预期 核心观点 ● ● +14%;归母净利 38亿元人民币/同比+507%;Non-GAAP 净利润 50 亿元人 民币/同比+46%。 2Q24 住宿预订增长好于交通,商旅、度假业务受益低基数持续增长。分 板块:1) 住宿预订服务实现营收 51 亿元/同比+20%,环比+14%,虽然国内 一不利影响;2)交通票务服务实现营收 49亿元/同比+1%/环比-3%,主要因 2Q24 机票价格波动。3) 旅游度假业务实现营收 10 亿元/同比+42%/环比 +16%,得益于旅游度假预订需求和节假日旅游需求增长。4)商旅管理业务实 现营收 6.3 亿元/同比+8%/环比+24%,主要受季节性影响。 ● 出境游/国际业务保持高增,入境游开始贡献增量。出境游方面,截至 2Q24, 公司出境游机酒预订已全面恢复至 2019 年同期水平,五一和端午预定量较 2019年分别+20%和+10%,且出境跟团游以成倍的速率增长。海外业务方面, 公司国际 OTA 平台营收同比+70%,占总营收的10.5%左右,其中,入境游板 块表现出色,1H24营收同比+150%,免签地区游客营收同比+190% ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 336.00 港元 509.00 +51.5% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 内地酒店业务表现好于预期，并将在下半年看到边际改善 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 128 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 14%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其中住宿+20%/交通+1%/旅游度假+42%/商旅 +8%。调整后净利润同比增 45%至 50 亿元，净利率 39%，对比去年同期 30%，超过我们/彭博市场预期 34%/39%，得益于规模效应、交叉销售优 化、高利润率业务占比提升以及联营公司利润超预期。市场恢复下营销活 动保持投入，调整后营销费用同比增 20%，占收比 22%，同比基本稳定， 与我们预期一致。 2 季度业绩要点：1）中文站点酒店预定同比增 20%，内地间夜量增约 15%，较行业增长高 10 个百分点，持续扩张市占，得益于用户心智及交叉 销售效率提升。内地 ADR 仍承压，但竞争缓和下补贴率下降缓释 ADR 压 力。2）出境机酒预订完全恢复至 2019 年水平，领先整体国际航班 70%+ 的恢复速度。机票价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to 500 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue met expectations, with adjusted net profit and EBITDA exceeding market expectations by 39% and 9% respectively. The hotel booking volume on the Chinese site increased by 20% year-on-year, while international OTA platform revenue surged by 70% [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantages and agile operations, leading to a high degree of profit certainty [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 net revenue reached 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, aligning with market expectations. Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, up 45% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 44% and 39% respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was 4.4 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 10% and 9%, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 35%, reflecting an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Business Segments - Domestic hotel and flight bookings showed normalized growth, with hotel bookings on the Chinese site increasing by 20% year-on-year. The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels decreased due to increased supply [2][3]. - The international OTA business is progressing steadily, with Trip.com’s total revenue in Q2 increasing by approximately 70%, contributing about 10.5% to total revenue [2][3]. Future Outlook - Management guidance for July and August indicates that outbound flight and hotel bookings are expected to exceed 2019 levels by 10-20%, with domestic hotel bookings also showing double-digit year-on-year growth [3][19]. - The report maintains the 2024 revenue forecast at 52.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while adjusting the full-year adjusted net profit forecast up by 11% to 16.2 billion RMB [3][19].

关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 携程称机酒行业价格下降，预计四季度缓解 茶百道毛利减少，因为给经销商减负 苹果 CFO 明年卸任，十年回报股东超 8500 亿美元 安踏半年净利润增长超 60%，商品周转加快 Anthropic 公开了 Claude 的系统提示词 拼多多是机构投资者二季度买入最多的中概股。据 13F 文件，当季共有 147 家资产管理规模 1 亿美元以 上的投资机构建仓拼多多，环比增加逾五成；增持的多了 20%、达到 269 家。清仓和减持的分别少了 30% 和 16%。 以拼多多二季度股票成交均价计算，大机构们合计净买入价值约 66 亿美元的拼多多股票。建仓的不乏 挪威央行、文艺复兴基金这样的著名机构。 一些早已重仓拼多多的中资机构下了更多注。景林增持约 157 万股、价值超 2 亿美元（按二季度交易均 价，下同），重新把拼多多买回最大持仓；泰仁资本买了近 2.5 亿美元，高毅资产增持约 0.6 亿美元。 徐新的今日资本没买也没卖，拼多多持仓占比接近九成。高瓴虽然大幅减持了约 4 亿美元拼多多 ...

Klaus Vedfelt Recap and Q2 Earnings We last covered Trip.com (NASDAQ:TCOM) (OTCPK:TRPCF) back in Nov 2023. Coverage history (Seeking Alpha) We noted that the management was cautious about the company's potential for short-term margin expansion because it has increased marketing spending to compete with other nearby businesses like Meituan (OTCPK:MPNGF) and Douyin, the parent company of TikTok. With a strategic alliance with Booking (BKNG) and an edge in the supply chain, management was enthusiastic ab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Trip.com Group-S (9961 HK) [3][4] Core Views - Trip com s Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by outbound and overseas business growth [2] - Non GAAP net profit reached RMB 5 billion up 45 YoY with a Non GAAP profit margin of 39 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4 4 billion with a margin of 35 [2] - The company s outbound hotel and flight bookings have fully recovered to 100 of 2019 levels surpassing the industry average recovery rate of 70 [2] - Trip com s international OTA platform revenue grew 70 YoY maintaining a high growth rate [2] Business Performance - Q2 2024 net revenue was RMB 12 8 billion up 14 YoY [2] - Accommodation revenue grew 20 YoY to RMB 5 1 billion while transportation revenue increased only 1 YoY to RMB 4 9 billion [2] - Vacation package revenue surged 42 YoY to RMB 1 billion and corporate travel revenue rose 8 YoY to RMB 633 million [2] - Gross margin stood at 81 9 slightly down 0 26 pct YoY [2] - R&D and management expenses decreased 1 8 and increased 6 0 respectively with sales expenses rising 1 2 pct YoY [2] Growth Drivers - Outbound travel recovery and pure overseas markets are key growth drivers [2] - Domestic hotel ADR and average airfare prices declined but Chinese site hotel bookings grew 20 YoY [2] - Trip com s international business continues to expand with Trip com platform revenue growing 70 YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 16 505 billion RMB 19 194 billion and RMB 21 858 billion respectively [3] - Non GAAP EPS for 2024 2026 is estimated at RMB 24 15 RMB 28 08 and RMB 31 98 [3] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2026 are 14x 12x and 10x based on the closing price on August 27 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024 2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted at 17 5 16 4 and 14 5 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates for 2024 2026 are 26 16 and 14 [4] - P E ratios based on adjusted net profit are 14x 12x and 10x for 2024 2026 [4] - P B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 5x and 1 3x for 2024 2026 [4]

携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 二季度经调净利润同比增长 45%，经营效能再次验证 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20,039 | 44,510 | 52,428 | 61,312 | 71,044 | | (+/-%) | 0.1% | 122.1% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 15.9% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 1294 | 13071 | 16420 | 19153 | 22276 | | (+/-%) | -4.6% | 910.1% | 25.6% | 16.6% | 16.3% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.89 | 19.12 | 24.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$65.80, indicating a potential upside of 55.4% from the current price of US$42.34 [2][10]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB12.8 billion for 2Q24, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13.6%, which aligns with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB4.2 billion, exceeding consensus forecasts by 6% due to effective cost control in R&D [2][3]. - The company is expected to experience resilient revenue growth driven by strong travel demand from its high-end customer base during the summer peak season, despite facing macroeconomic challenges and tougher comparisons in 3Q24 [2][3]. - The management anticipates a reacceleration in year-over-year revenue growth in 4Q24 as the impact of business adjustments diminishes and comparisons become easier [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, Trip.com is projected to achieve revenue of RMB52.8 billion, representing an 18.5% year-over-year growth. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB16.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 25.8% [3][8]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) for 2Q24 was reported at 33.1%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected R&D expense ratios [2][3]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 81.8% for FY24E, with an operating margin of 27.5% and a non-GAAP net margin of 31.2% [8][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel reservations grew approximately 20% year-over-year in 2Q24, with double-digit growth continuing in 3Q24. Outbound air and hotel reservations have recovered to 110%-120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the market by 20-30% [2][3]. - Revenue from inbound travel accounted for 25% of total revenue in 2Q24, up from 20% in 1Q24, contributing approximately 2.6% to the total group-level revenue [2][3]. Future Projections - For 3Q24E, Trip.com is estimated to record revenue of RMB15.6 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, consistent with Bloomberg consensus [2][3]. - The company expects to maintain a non-GAAP OPM of 33.1% for 3Q24E, with projections for FY25E showing continued growth in revenue and profitability [2][3].

Key TakeawaysOnline travel platform Trip.com Group reported better-than-expected profit and sales as demand for cross-border and holiday travel surged.The biggest Chinese online travel service said revenue for the latest quarter was boosted by the resilience of travel consumption in China.Trip.com's sales for accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, package tours, and corporate travel were all higher.Its U.S.-listed shares jumped nearly 9% Tuesday after the earnings news was released. U.S.-list ...

Key TakeawaysShares of companies in the travel industry moved higher Tuesday, aided by strong earnings results from Singapore-based travel platform Trip.com.Stocks posting gains included cruise operators Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival, as well as online travel platform Expedia.Cruise operators received an additional boost from a Zacks Equities Research report highlighting the industry's booking and pricing trends. Shares of travel-industry companies moved higher on Tuesday, lifted by t ...