Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026Q3 will reach 292.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce revenue growth. The company is expected to continue investing in flash sales, which will pressure profits, with an adjusted EBITA forecast of 30.61 billion yuan and an EBITA margin of 10.5% for the quarter [7] - Alibaba Cloud is projected to achieve a revenue of 42.85 billion yuan in the same quarter, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 35.0%, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and services. The EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud is expected to remain stable at around 9.0% [7] - The report maintains Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 at 101.53 billion yuan, 141.56 billion yuan, and 184.65 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.4, 20.4, and 15.6 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: - FY2024A: 941.17 billion yuan - FY2025A: 996.35 billion yuan - FY2026E: 1,068.58 billion yuan - FY2027E: 1,158.75 billion yuan - FY2028E: 1,269.02 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be: - FY2024A: 8.34% - FY2025A: 5.86% - FY2026E: 7.25% - FY2027E: 8.44% - FY2028E: 9.52% [1][8] - The projected net profit figures are: - FY2024A: 80.01 billion yuan - FY2025A: 130.11 billion yuan - FY2026E: 82.64 billion yuan - FY2027E: 122.87 billion yuan - FY2028E: 166.01 billion yuan [1][8]

Group 1 - The top three companies with net inflow of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.954 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 638 million, and China Construction Bank (00939) with 358 million [1][2] - The top three companies with net outflow of southbound funds are China Mobile (00941) with -883 million, Zijin Mining (02899) with -450 million, and Innovent Biologics (01801) with -435 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, ICBC South China (03167) leads with 100.00%, followed by 361 Degrees (01361) with 78.85%, and Qin Port Co. (03369) with 67.10% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten companies by net inflow include Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.954 billion and a closing price of 164.600, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 638 million and a closing price of 622.000 [2] - The top ten companies by net outflow include China Mobile (00941) with -883 million and a closing price of 80.600, and Zijin Mining (02899) with -450 million and a closing price of 40.000 [2] - The top three companies by net inflow ratio also include South China Airlines (01055) with 59.53% and a closing price of 5.630 [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba (BABA) is focusing on quick commerce as a significant growth driver, with revenues increasing by 60% year-over-year in Q2 of fiscal 2026, attributed to strong order momentum and the expansion of Taobao Instant Commerce [1][9] - The company is facing challenges in profitability due to heavy spending on subsidies, logistics, and user experience, particularly in the China e-commerce segment, which saw EBITA decline by 76% year-over-year in Q2 of fiscal 2026 [2][9] - Sales and marketing expenses have surged to nearly 27% of revenues, reflecting intense competition in the instant delivery and local commerce markets, while cash flow has deteriorated due to ongoing investments in quick commerce [3][9] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITA is expected to fluctuate in the coming quarters due to high competition and investment levels, indicating that margin pressure may persist longer than anticipated [4] - BABA shares have increased by 37.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry growth of 3.1% and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector growth of 6.4% [7] - The current forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio for BABA is 20.04X, compared to the industry's 24.97X, with a Value Score of F [11] Competitive Landscape - JD.com poses significant competition to Alibaba with a self-operated, price-competitive model, achieving a revenue growth of 14.9% to RMB299.1 billion in Q3 of 2025, despite higher logistics costs [5] - PDD Holdings intensifies competition through a low-cost, social commerce model, demonstrating strong revenue growth and net income gains, which pressures Alibaba's core platforms [6] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $6.10 per share, reflecting a 32.3% year-over-year decline and a 5% decrease over the past 30 days [14]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of AI in investment decisions, particularly in the context of Chinese internet companies and their overseas revenue potential [2][3]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue of Chinese Internet Companies - Chinese internet companies have an average overseas revenue exceeding 10%, with Pinduoduo leading at 35% [3]. - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba have low to high teens percentages of overseas revenue, indicating a growing trend towards international markets [3]. Group 2: Cloud Computing Sector - Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are rapidly expanding their international presence, with Alibaba planning new business regions in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, and Tencent deploying services in 22 regions globally [4]. - Morgan Stanley projects that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will exceed 40% by FY2027, while Tencent's enterprise service revenue is expected to grow by 25% by FY2026 [5]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving Services - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," is a leader in the sector, achieving over 250,000 weekly orders in fully autonomous mode as of Q3 2025, and has expanded to 22 cities including Dubai and Switzerland [7]. - Despite its leadership, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Baidu's revenue from this service will remain low and require continued investment [9]. Group 4: AI Models and Applications - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen model has gained significant traction globally, becoming the most downloaded AI model with over 700 million downloads by January 2026 [11]. - Kuaishou's Keling is expected to generate substantial revenue from overseas markets, with projections indicating an 80% year-on-year growth to reach $270 million by 2026, driven by B2B customer expansion [14].

Company Overview - Moonshot AI, an Alibaba-backed AI startup, is currently valued at $4.8 billion in a new funding round, up from $4.3 billion previously [1][2] - The company is known for its Kimi chatbot, which gained significant popularity in China prior to the release of DeepSeek [1] Funding Details - The latest funding round is expected to close soon due to high demand, with a valuation at least $500 million higher than the previous round in December [2] - The previous funding round, announced on December 31, included participation from IDG, Alibaba, and Tencent [4] Market Context - Interest in Chinese AI companies has surged, particularly as U.S. AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT are not available in mainland China due to government restrictions [3] - Competitors Zhipu and MiniMax have seen significant market valuations, with Zhipu valued at $13 billion and MiniMax at $15.2 billion as of the latest data [4] Future Prospects - There is potential for Moonshot AI to be valued even higher in future funding rounds due to increasing interest in Chinese AI IPO candidates [3]

Group 1 - Alibaba Group stock experienced a significant decline on Monday, which impacted the recent positive momentum in its share price [1] - The drop in Alibaba's stock price indicates potential volatility in the Chinese online retail sector [1] - This decline follows a period of rally, suggesting that investor sentiment may be shifting [1] Group 2 - The recent stock performance of Alibaba reflects broader trends in the Chinese e-commerce industry [1] - Market reactions to Alibaba's stock may influence investor confidence in other companies within the sector [1] - The fluctuation in Alibaba's stock could signal underlying challenges facing the online retail market in China [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba has integrated its Qianwen App into its ecosystem, including Taobao, Alipay, and other services, positioning it as a "super agent" to differentiate from competitors like Doubao and Yuanbao [1] - The year 2025 is referred to as the "AI Hardware Year," marking a surge in AI hardware products like AI glasses and headphones, aiming to replace smartphones as essential devices [3][4] - Major tech companies are actively investing in AI hardware, with products like ByteDance's Doubao and ZTE's nubia M153 generating significant buzz [1][9] Trend 1: Hardware Manufacturers Competing in AI Vertical Market - The AI hardware market is experiencing intense competition, with various companies launching products aimed at becoming essential devices [2][3] - Plaud, an AI hardware company, has successfully sold over 1 million units by targeting high-decision, high-dialogue, and high-knowledge-density users [3] - The trend of vertical market products achieving commercial viability is notable, as companies leverage AI to enhance hardware functionality [4] Trend 2: Major Companies Stirring the Hardware Market - Internet giants are diversifying into hardware, with companies like ByteDance and Alibaba launching AI products to complement their existing software ecosystems [9][10] - The strategies include direct hardware development and providing foundational models for other hardware manufacturers [10][11] - Tencent is focusing on robotics and has launched a modular platform for intelligent robots, indicating a shift towards hardware integration [11] Trend 3: Ecosystem Integration of Super Applications - Alibaba's Qianwen App has been upgraded to support over 400 tasks, integrating with various services to enhance user experience [15][17] - Tencent is betting on WeChat as a super application, aiming to create an AI assistant that can understand user needs and execute tasks within its ecosystem [17][18] - The competition among major companies is intensifying as they seek to create comprehensive user experiences through integrated applications [19] Trend 4: New Competitive Logic from Emerging AI Models - Emerging AI model companies, referred to as the "Six Little Tigers," are positioning themselves alongside major tech firms in the race for super applications [22][23] - These companies are focusing on high-value sectors like healthcare, with products that aim to redefine user engagement and application functionality [23][24] - The competition is shifting from traditional metrics of success to a focus on model capabilities and user experience [24][25] Predictions: Who Will Define the Super Entry? - The battle for the next generation of "super entry" is ongoing, with hardware and software companies vying for dominance [29][30] - Challenges remain in the AI hardware sector, including user privacy and the clarity of business models for AI applications [30][31] - The concept of a "super entry" may evolve, with the potential for more neutral and open platforms to emerge as key players [31]

Core Insights - On January 19, 2026, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 5.283 billion, 2.192 billion, and 2.095 billion respectively [1] - The same companies also led in trading volume in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 2.627 billion, 1.955 billion, and 1.639 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect Trading Activity - Top active companies in the Southbound Stock Connect included: - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 5.283 billion and a net buying amount of +33.85 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 2.192 billion and a net buying amount of +331 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a trading amount of 2.095 billion and a net buying amount of +490 million [2] - SMIC (00981) with a trading amount of 1.841 billion and a net buying amount of +521 million [2] - China Mobile (00941) with a trading amount of 1.558 billion and a net selling amount of -243 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Trading Activity - Top active companies in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect included: - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.627 billion and a net buying amount of +231 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 1.955 billion and a net selling amount of -57.42 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a trading amount of 1.639 billion and a net selling amount of -323 million [2] - SMIC (00981) with a trading amount of 1.424 billion and a net selling amount of -59.52 million [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The commercialization of AI is accelerating, with significant developments in intelligent agents and video generation technologies [2][10][12] - Ant Group and Google have launched a Universal Commercial Protocol (UCP) to standardize AI-driven commercial interactions, enhancing seamless collaboration across various systems [10][11] - Kuaishou's Keling AI has achieved a monthly revenue of over $20 million (approximately 140 million RMB) as of December 2025, indicating rapid commercialization in the video generation sector [12][13] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated deeply with its ecosystem, transitioning AI capabilities from simple chat functions to executing complex tasks, marking a new era in AI applications [15][16] - Shanghai's "Mosu Zhixing" initiative aims to scale L4 autonomous driving applications by 2027, establishing a leading position in the global smart connected vehicle industry [19][20] - The U.S. has threatened storage chip manufacturers with a 100% tariff unless they increase domestic production, highlighting the geopolitical dynamics in the semiconductor industry [22][23] Summary by Sections AI Commercialization - Ant Group and Google have introduced UCP, a new open standard for intelligent agents that facilitates seamless commercial interactions across various platforms [10][11] - Kuaishou's Keling AI has seen a significant increase in revenue, reaching an annual run rate of $240 million (approximately 1.68 billion RMB) by December 2025, driven by enhanced product capabilities and computational power [12][13][14] Integration of AI in Ecosystems - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated with major services like Taobao and Alipay, enabling it to perform real-world tasks such as ordering food and booking travel, thus evolving into a comprehensive AI assistant [15][16][17] Autonomous Driving Initiatives - Shanghai's "Mosu Zhixing" plan aims for large-scale deployment of L4 autonomous driving technology by 2027, with specific targets for passenger and freight transport [19][20][21] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The U.S. Commerce Secretary has warned storage chip manufacturers of potential tariffs, emphasizing the need for increased domestic production and the strategic importance of semiconductor independence [22][23]

Group 1: Market Overview - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 22.92 billion, with HKD 30.42 billion net buying through Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 7.5 billion net selling through Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The most bought stocks by northbound investors included SMIC (00981), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), and Tencent (00700), while China Mobile (00941) saw the highest net sell [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba (09988) had a net inflow of HKD 26.58 billion in buying and HKD 26.24 billion in selling, totaling HKD 52.83 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a net buy of HKD 12.61 billion against HKD 9.30 billion in selling, resulting in a total of HKD 21.92 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group (01810) saw a net buy of HKD 12.92 billion with HKD 8.03 billion in selling, totaling HKD 20.95 billion [2] - SMIC (00981) had a net buy of HKD 11.81 billion and HKD 6.60 billion in selling, resulting in a total of HKD 18.41 billion [2] - China Mobile (00941) experienced a net sell of HKD 6.57 billion against HKD 9.00 billion in selling, totaling HKD 15.58 billion [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - TSMC raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to USD 52-56 billion, indicating strong long-term demand driven by AI [4] - DRAM prices are on the rise, with certain DDR4 models seeing weekly increases exceeding 12%, and Micron noted that AI demand now accounts for 50-60% of the DRAM market [4] - Nomura forecasts Tencent's revenue to grow by 12% year-on-year to RMB 193.5 billion, with non-IFRS net profit expected to rise by 15% to RMB 63.9 billion [5] - Alibaba's new app, Qianwen, integrates various services within its ecosystem, enhancing its competitive edge in AI and consumer markets [5] - Bubble Mart (09992) is projected to have multiple growth drivers, including monetization of existing IPs and new IP launches targeting overseas markets [6]