Revenue Growth - Revenue increased by 62.0% to RMB 4,557,831 thousand compared to the same period last year[2] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 4,557,831 thousand, a 62% increase compared to RMB 2,813,812 thousand in the same period of 2023[14] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 4,557,831 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 2,813,812 thousand in the same period in 2023[18] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 4,557.8 million, a 62.0% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets[38] - The company's revenue increased by 62.0% year-over-year, from RMB 2,813.8 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 4,557.8 million in the first half of 2024[47] Profitability - Gross profit rose by 71.9% to RMB 2,919,105 thousand year-over-year[2] - Operating profit surged by 109.5% to RMB 1,126,417 thousand[2] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners grew by 93.3% to RMB 921,333 thousand[2] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 964,142 thousand, a 102% increase compared to RMB 477,242 thousand in the same period of 2023[14] - Gross profit rose by 71.9% to RMB 2,919.1 million, with gross margin improving to 64.0% in H1 2024[66] - Operating profit more than doubled, increasing by 109.5% to RMB 1,126.4 million in H1 2024[70] - Net profit increased by 102.0% from RMB 477.2 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 964.1 million in the reporting period[72] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit increased to RMB 1,017.6 million, with a non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin of 22.3%, up from 19.0% in the same period last year[73] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share increased by 96.0% to RMB 69.49 cents[2] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 69.49 cents, up from RMB 35.46 cents in 2023[26] - Diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 69.22 cents, compared to RMB 35.42 cents in 2023[27] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets increased to RMB 11,017,479 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 9,968,863 thousand at the end of 2023[5] - Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to RMB 3,608,674 thousand from RMB 2,077,927 thousand at the end of 2023[5] - Total equity attributable to the company's owners increased to RMB 8,399,036 thousand from RMB 7,769,927 thousand[6] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 2,564,822 thousand from RMB 2,188,481 thousand[6] - Non-current assets slightly increased to RMB 2,302,138 thousand from RMB 2,285,394 thousand[5] - Trade receivables decreased to RMB 263,722 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 321,337 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with a significant reduction in receivables from related parties[28] - Trade payables increased to RMB 555,137 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 444,944 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with 57.5% of payables within 30 days[34][35] - Payable licensing fees increased to RMB 287,214 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 194,200 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with the current portion rising to RMB 273,026 thousand[36][37] - Inventory increased slightly from RMB 904.7 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 916.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with inventory turnover days reduced from 133 days to 101 days[76] - Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly from RMB 2,077.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 3,608.7 million as of June 30, 2024, driven by increased cash flow from operations and reduced fixed deposits[77] - Trade payables increased from RMB 444.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 555.1 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days increasing from 53 days to 56 days[78] - The company had no bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024, and the asset-liability ratio increased slightly from 22.0% as of December 31, 2023, to 23.3% as of June 30, 2024[79] Regional Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Mainland China business reached RMB 3,206,354 thousand, accounting for 70.3% of total revenue, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas business reached RMB 1,351,477 thousand, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[14] - Segment profit from Mainland China business was RMB 886,788 thousand, and segment profit from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas business was RMB 400,191 thousand, totaling RMB 1,286,979 thousand[14] - Revenue from retail store sales in Mainland China was RMB 1,471,276 thousand, and revenue from online sales was RMB 1,095,669 thousand[17] - Revenue from retail store sales in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas was RMB 893,505 thousand, and revenue from online sales was RMB 247,244 thousand[15] - Domestic revenue in mainland China grew by 31.5% year-on-year to RMB 3,206.4 million, while overseas revenue surged by 259.6% to RMB 1,351.5 million, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[38] - Revenue from offline channels in Mainland China grew by 23.1%, from RMB 1,450.6 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 1,786.3 million in the first half of 2024[49] - Revenue from retail stores in Mainland China increased by 24.7%, contributing 82.4% of total offline revenue in the first half of 2024[50] - Revenue from robot stores in Mainland China grew by 16.2%, accounting for 17.6% of total offline revenue in the first half of 2024[50] - Overseas revenue surged significantly, with offline channels in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets generating RMB 946.7 million in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 190.4 million in the same period of 2023[48] - Online revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets reached RMB 247.2 million in the first half of 2024, a substantial increase from RMB 56.8 million in the first half of 2023[48] - Offline revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets skyrocketed by 397.3% YoY, from RMB 190.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB 946.7 million in H1 2024, with retail store revenue growing by 441.5% and robot store revenue increasing by 109.7%[55][56][57] - Online revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets surged by 335.4% YoY, from RMB 56.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB 247.2 million in H1 2024, with Pop Mart official website revenue growing by 465.5% and Lazada revenue increasing by 387.9%[58] - Wholesale and other revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets increased by 22.5% YoY, from RMB 128.6 million in H1 2023 to RMB 157.5 million in H1 2024, driven by business expansion and increased brand recognition[59] - Revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets grew by 259.6% YoY, from RMB 375.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,351.5 million in H1 2024, with Southeast Asia revenue increasing by 478.3% and North America revenue growing by 377.7%[60] Product and IP Performance - MOLLY achieved revenue of RMB 782.2 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.1%[39] - THE MONSTERS achieved revenue of RMB 626.8 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 292.2%[39] - SKULLPANDA achieved revenue of RMB 574.6 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%[39] - Hirono (Xiaoye) achieved revenue growth of 124.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[40] - Zsiga achieved revenue growth of 169.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[40] - MEGA COLLECTION achieved revenue of RMB 586.1 million in the first half of 2024, accounting for 12.9% of total revenue[40] - Plush products achieved revenue of RMB 446.1 million in the first half of 2024, accounting for 9.8% of total revenue[40] - Revenue from self-developed products increased by 69.5% to RMB 4,382.7 million in H1 2024, accounting for 96.2% of total revenue[61] - Artist IP revenue grew by 70.4% to RMB 3,687.8 million, representing 81.0% of total revenue in H1 2024[63] - Licensed IP revenue increased by 64.9% to RMB 694.9 million in H1 2024[63] - MEGA product revenue surged by 141.9% to RMB 586.1 million in H1 2024[64] - Plush toy revenue skyrocketed by 993.6% to RMB 446.1 million in H1 2024[64] Expenses and Costs - Cost of goods sold for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,282,095 thousand, up from RMB 923,921 thousand in 2023[19] - Employee benefits expenses increased to RMB 657,748 thousand in 2024 from RMB 496,416 thousand in 2023[19] - Commission and e-commerce platform service fees surged to RMB 206,785 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 70,262 thousand in 2023[19] - Advertising and marketing expenses rose to RMB 198,592 thousand in 2024 from RMB 141,978 thousand in 2023[19] - Distribution and sales expenses grew by 54.1% to RMB 1,353.2 million, driven by employee benefits and lease-related expenses[67] - The number of retail stores increased by 79, contributing to higher lease-related expenses of RMB 333.6 million in H1 2024[67] - Income tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 264,296 thousand, compared to RMB 141,305 thousand in 2023[23] - Capital expenditures for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 186.4 million, a decrease from RMB 214.1 million in the same period last year[82] - The company employed 5,470 staff as of June 30, 2024, with employee costs amounting to RMB 657.7 million[83] Share Repurchase and Dividends - The company repurchased 4,700,000 ordinary shares during the six months ended June 30, 2024, at a total cost of HKD 85,827,000 (approximately RMB 78,031,000)[33] - The company repurchased a total of 4,700,000 shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a total consideration of approximately HKD 85,826,488 during the six months ended June 30, 2024[93] - The highest price per share paid for repurchases in January 2024 was HKD 19.96, while the lowest price was HKD 17.00[94] - In February 2024, the company repurchased 810,000 shares at a highest price of HKD 18.46 and a lowest price of HKD 17.62[94] - The company will not pay an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024[90] Future Plans and Strategies - The company plans to expand its IP portfolio, enhance product categories, and focus on sustainable and eco-friendly materials to strengthen its market position[84] - The company plans to expand its global business footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, and open offline channels in major global landmarks to enhance consumer experience and brand awareness[85] - 30% of the net proceeds (HKD 1,692.5 million) will be allocated for consumer reach channels and overseas market expansion, including opening new retail stores (HKD 954.0 million) and new robot stores (HKD 346.9 million)[88] - 7.5% of the net proceeds (HKD 433.6 million) will be used for expanding business into overseas markets[88] - 18% of the net proceeds (HKD 1,040.7 million) will be allocated to expand the company's IP library, including acquiring popular IPs (HKD 693.8 million)[89] - 6% of the net proceeds (HKD 346.9 million) will be used for purchasing software and hardware to enhance digitalization and establish information systems for digital marketing, customer service, logistics, and supply chain management[88] - 10% of the net proceeds (HKD 578.2 million) will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes[89] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company's external auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, reviewed the interim financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and found no material misstatements[95] - The company's audit committee consists of two independent non-executive directors and one non-executive director, with Mr. Wu Liansheng serving as the chairman[95] - The company's board of directors includes three independent non-executive directors, providing sufficient checks and balances within the board[91] - The company's chairman and CEO, Mr. Wang Ning, also serves as the founder, ensuring consistent leadership and strategic planning[91] - The company confirmed that all directors complied with the Model Code for Securities Transactions during the six months ended June 30, 2024[92] - The company's interim results announcement and interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the company's website[96] Financial Performance Metrics - The aging analysis of trade receivables shows that 84.8% of receivables were within 3 months as of June 30, 2024, compared to 94.8% as of December 31, 2023[29] - Impairment provisions for trade receivables increased to RMB 9,338 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 7,319 thousand as of December 31, 2023[30] - Net finance income increased to RMB 83.8 million in H1 2024, up from RMB 63.4 million in the same period last year[70] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB 321.3 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 263.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days reduced from 15 days to 12 days[75] Market Expansion and Store Growth - The company opened 20 new offline stores in mainland China in the first half of 2024, bringing the total number of stores to 374[42] - The company's Douyin platform revenue reached RMB 208.9 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.7%[43] - The company's cumulative registered members in mainland China reached 38.927 million by June 30, 2024, with a member repurchase rate of 43.9%[44] - The company expanded its overseas presence with 92 stores (including joint ventures) and 162 robot stores (including joint ventures and franchises) as of June 30, 2024[45] - Retail store sales revenue in mainland China increased by 24.7% YoY, from RMB 1,179.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,471.3 million in H1 2024, with the number of stores increasing by 34 to a total of 374 stores as of June 30, 2024[51] - Robot store sales revenue in mainland China grew by 16.2% YoY, from RMB 271.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 315.0 million in H1 2024, with the number of robot stores increasing by 4 to a total of 2,189 stores as of June 30, 2024[52] - Online revenue in mainland China surged by 34.0% YoY, from RMB 817.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,095.7 million in H1 2024, with significant growth in Douyin platform revenue (90.7%) and Tmall flagship store revenue (28.1%)[53] - Wholesale and other revenue in mainland China increased by 90.8% YoY, from RMB 170.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 324.4 million in H1 2024, driven by revenue from Pop Mart City Park[54] Digital and Online Performance - The company's Douyin platform revenue reached RMB 208.9 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.7%

所以在配饰应该会成为一个新的产品线然后第二个的话就是服饰我们今天看到一些公司官方账号其实也发了一些图头未来可能会demo相关可能会出一些服饰的产品线我觉得也可以期待一下所以从产品的角度来讲我觉得核心是 探索出适合这个IP特性的一个新的品类比如说我们拿这个拉布布举例现在大家都知道拉布布了其实之前他也一直出盲盒然后包括可能会有的时候会出一些符合设计师审美但是不一定这个大众会很喜欢的这种系列 然后但是其实之前拉布这个IP一直都是相对就我们也看他收入大概是排第四嘛其实还可以但是也没有爆但是今年其实这个糖浆去年这个糖浆马卡龙其实在国内就是一个爆品然后今年四月份Lisa Bella之后其实现在不管是在泰国我觉得是在全球吧其实都是一个非常爆的品位 也让拉布布这个IP其实整体的渗透的人群其实是有了一个比较大的变化所以我们也看好公司积极的去通过品类的拓展产品线的拓展去增强这个IP的一个触达的人群这个我觉得是核心的要点并不是说它真的有什么新的 产品出来这个产品我喜不喜欢我觉得这个倒不是要点啊第三个是渠道呃渠道的话那我们也看到了就是公司年初的时候后现给的这个海外海外的渠道拓展的指引现在应该是远超了当时给的那个指引 然后去年其实就是 ...

泡泡玛特 (9992.HK 从产品出海到文化出海，泡泡玛特 海外业务增长靓丽，有望再造泡泡玛特。2023 年泡泡玛特中国内地外地区 A 实现收入 10.66 亿元，同比增长 134.86%，收入占全公司比重达到 16.9%，较 上年提升 7.1pct。2018-2023 年度，泡泡玛特中国内地外收入由 436 万元提升 至 10.7 亿元，年复合增长率高达 200.4%。根据公司规划，2024 年海外业务有 望超过集团 IPO 前 2019 年的收入（17 亿元），立志在海外再造一个泡泡玛特。 出海策略：由近到远，由试到铺。渠道方面，泡泡玛特海外渠道经历了"展 A 会 B2B-快闪店-零售店" 的变迁: 自 2017 年起主办潮玩展会, 以 B2B 批发形式 走出国门；2021 年战略重心转至 DTC，以快闪店形式较低成本试水，如 2021 年圣诞季公司在澳大利亚、日韩等落地近 20 家圣诞快闪店；最终公司选取当地 潮流地开设零售店; 截至 2023 年底, 公司共在中国内地外地区开设零售店/机器 人商店 (均含合营及加盟) 80/159 家。2023 海外线下渠道实现收入 6.40 亿元， 同比增长 324 ...

泡泡玛特（9992.HK）深度报告 从产品出海到文化出海，泡泡玛特全球化启示 2024 年 08 月 01 日 ➢ 海外业务增长靓丽，有望再造泡泡玛特。2023 年泡泡玛特中国内地外地区 实现收入 10.66 亿元，同比增长 134.86%，收入占全公司比重达到 16.9%，较 上年提升 7.1pct。2018-2023 年度，泡泡玛特中国内地外收入由 436 万元提升 至 10.7 亿元，年复合增长率高达 200.4%。根据公司规划，2024 年海外业务有 望超过集团 IPO 前 2019 年的收入（17 亿元），立志在海外再造一个泡泡玛特。 ➢ 出海策略：由近到远，由试到铺。渠道方面，泡泡玛特海外渠道经历了"展 会 B2B-快闪店-零售店"的变迁：自 2017 年起主办潮玩展会，以 B2B 批发形式 走出国门；2021 年战略重心转至 DTC，以快闪店形式较低成本试水，如 2021 年圣诞季公司在澳大利亚、日韩等落地近 20 家圣诞快闪店；最终公司选取当地 潮流地开设零售店；截至 2023 年底，公司共在中国内地外地区开设零售店/机器 人商店（均含合营及加盟）80/159 家。2023 海外线下渠道实现收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of at least 55% YoY and profit growth of at least 90% YoY [1] - The company's strong performance is attributed to increased global recognition of its brand and IPs, diversified product categories, and optimized cost control [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the US, has been successful, with high single-store sales performance [1] - The company's new product lines, including blind boxes, plush toys, building blocks, and cards, have enhanced product playability and interactivity [1] - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" has contributed to the enrichment of its IP ecosystem and strengthened emotional connections with players [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue is expected to be at least RMB 4.362 billion, and profit is expected to be at least RMB 906 million, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - The company's 2024-2025 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 9.44 billion and RMB 12.53 billion, representing YoY growth of 49.8% and 32.7%, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is projected to be RMB 2.103 billion and RMB 2.749 billion, with YoY growth of 76.6% and 30.7%, respectively [1] Product and IP Performance - Pop Mart has 16 series in the top 20 of Tmall's blind box bestseller list, including "Dragon's Roar," "SKULLPANDA Temperature," and "THE MONSTER Invisible" [1] - The LABUBU Heart Macaron blind box has sold over 200,000 units on Tmall as of July 25, 2024 [1] - The company launched its building block product line POPBLOCKS in May 2024, starting with the LABUBU Forest Secret Base series, which enhances the storytelling aspect of its IPs [1] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart opened 26 new overseas stores in H1 2024, compared to 19 in H1 2023, with significant growth in the US and Southeast Asia [1] - The company opened 6 new stores in the US, including locations in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas [1] - In Southeast Asia, Pop Mart opened 2 new stores in Vietnam and 2 in Thailand, with the Bangkok LABUBU IP-themed store achieving a record-breaking RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic retail store revenue grew by 20%-25% YoY in Q1 2024, while robot store revenue increased by 15%-20% YoY [1] - Pop Mart's domestic market has shown resilience and strong alpha attributes compared to the broader market [1] New Business Initiatives - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" was released on June 27, 2024, and ranked first on the iOS China game download chart on its launch day [1] - The game, which combines simulation and party gameplay, has over 5 million pre-registrations and aims to deepen player engagement with Pop Mart's IPs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK$41.46, reflecting a 10% upside potential from the current price of HK$37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has announced a positive earnings forecast for 1H24, with expected revenue growth of 55% year-on-year and net profit growth of 90%. This outperformance is attributed to increased global recognition of its IP, expansion of product categories, and strong overseas revenue growth [3][4]. - The company is rapidly expanding its overseas market presence, with approximately 20 new retail stores opened in 1H24 and plans to add 50 to 60 more by the end of 2024, totaling 130 to 140 overseas stores [4]. - The company is effectively controlling costs and enhancing profitability, with a significant improvement in profit margins due to optimized product costs and strengthened expense management [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 10,101 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60%. The Non-IFRS adjusted net profit is projected to be 2,092 million, reflecting a growth rate of 107% [6][7]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 includes revenues of 12,916 million and 15,458 million, respectively, with corresponding Non-IFRS adjusted net profits of 2,734 million and 3,297 million [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company is validating its overseas expansion capabilities, having opened stores in Vietnam, the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, and Thailand, with significant first-day revenues reported [4]. - The local IP strategy is proving successful, with collaborations and high sales figures in new product categories and partnerships [4]. Product Development - The company continues to see strong demand for its existing IP and new product launches, with several new categories and collaborations performing exceptionally well in the market [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 55% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with net profit growth of no less than 90% [4] - The company has seen rapid revenue growth outside mainland China, with significant increases in retail stores and robot stores in regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas [4] - Continuous product innovation and category expansion have contributed to revenue growth, with new product lines being developed and launched [4] - The company has optimized product costs and strengthened expense management, leading to improved profitability [4] - The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 18.24 billion and 24.29 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.5% and 33.2% [4][6] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.345 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.4% [5] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 1.082 billion, showing a significant increase of 127.5% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for 2023 is projected to be 61.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 0.80, 1.36, and 1.81 respectively [6][12] - The company’s revenue from offline channels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected growth rate of 64.68% in 2024 [7][8] Valuation - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27.0 and 20.3 for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with a target valuation range of 40.80 to 43.52 HKD [4][9]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 51.3, implying a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 40.2 [1] - The target price is derived using a DCF valuation method, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages [1] Core Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is a leader in China's trendy toy industry, benefiting from its strong IP incubation and monetization capabilities, which drive its global expansion [1] - The company has three key advantages: 1) industry leadership in a high-growth segment, 2) competitive moat through IP incubation and monetization, and 3) a well-developed omnichannel sales network [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion is gaining momentum, reducing its reliance on the Chinese market and providing a new growth driver [1] IP Incubation and Monetization - Pop Mart operates as an integrated IP platform, covering the entire value chain from IP acquisition, incubation, product design, production, to sales and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company has built a rich portfolio of over 40 artist IPs, with 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in sales each, reducing reliance on any single IP [8][12] - Pop Mart's IP monetization is supported by a diversified product portfolio, including blind boxes, figurines, BJDs, plush toys, and building blocks, catering to various consumer needs [17][18][23] Sales Network and DTC Strategy - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive omnichannel sales network, covering both offline (retail stores, robot stores, exhibitions) and online (Tmall, JD, Douyin, and its own app) channels [34][35] - The company's DTC (direct-to-consumer) strategy accounts for 88% of total revenue, enabling better consumer interaction, data collection, and personalized shopping experiences [44][45] - As of 2023, Pop Mart has 3,435 million registered members in mainland China, with a member repurchase rate of 50% and member sales contributing 92% of total revenue [46] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its overseas presence, with 80 retail stores and 159 robot stores in over 20 countries and regions as of 2023 [48][50] - Overseas revenue grew at a CAGR of over 140% from 2021 to 2023, reaching RMB 1.07 billion and accounting for 17% of total revenue in 2023 [51][52] - The company's overseas strategy includes localized product offerings, collaborations with global IPs (e.g., Marvel, Disney), and the establishment of overseas supply chains, such as its factory in Vietnam [54][55] Financial Performance and Outlook - Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.1 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.6% [56] - Overseas revenue is projected to grow faster than domestic revenue, increasing from RMB 1.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.7 billion in 2026, driven by continued market expansion [57] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 65.0% in 2026, supported by cost optimization and economies of scale [60]

2024 年 07 月 21 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) yaol02@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 研究所: 证券分析师: 姚蕾 S0350521080006 [Table_Title] 2024H1 业绩超预期,海外高增+国内品类 扩张双催化 ——泡泡玛特(9992.HK)2024H1 业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 7 月 18 日,公司公告正面盈利预告,预计 2024H1 收入同比增 长不低于 55%,利润(不包括未完成统计的金融工具公允价值变动损益) 同比增长不低于 90%。 投资要点: 预计 2024H1 业绩大超市场预期。 (1)预计 2024H1 收入同比增长不低于 55%(即 43.9 亿元+),利润(不 包括未完成统计的金融工具公允价值变动损益)同比增长不低于 90%(即 9.1 亿元+),主要系:①丰富产品品类,提升 IP 全球知名 度,海外收入高速增长;②优化产品成本,加强费用管控。 (2)按照收入/利润同比增速+55%/+90%计,预计 2024H1 净利率约 20.6%(20 ...