Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of over 55% in the first half of 2024, with projected revenue of at least 3.78 billion yuan, driven by domestic recovery and rapid overseas sales growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to increase by no less than 90%, corresponding to a net profit of at least 910 million yuan [6][12]. - Established IPs continue to perform strongly, with new IPs being launched in an orderly manner, showing initial success in category expansion. For instance, established IPs like SKULLPANDA, MOLLY, DIMOO, and THE MONSTERS saw revenue growth of 20.3%, 27.2%, 27.6%, and 39.9% respectively in 2023 [7][10]. - The company's international expansion is progressing smoothly, with overseas revenue reaching 1.07 billion yuan in 2023 and maintaining a high growth rate of 245% to 250% in the first quarter of 2024. The company expects overseas revenue for the entire year of 2024 to be no less than 1 billion yuan [11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue of 8.224 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. The net profit is projected to be 1.928 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 78.2% compared to 2023 [3][15]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.44 yuan for 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 21 times [12][15]. IP Performance and New Launches - The company is set to launch new IPs such as Peach Riot, CHAKA, POLAR, and Nyota in the first half of 2024, alongside established IPs that are performing well [7][10]. - The company is also expanding into new categories like games and parks, with the launch of the game "Dream Home" achieving over 700,000 downloads within three weeks [10][11]. International Expansion - The company has accelerated its overseas store openings, with new stores launched in Milan, Amsterdam, and Myeongdong, South Korea. The LABUBU IP-themed store in Bangkok achieved over 10 million yuan in sales on its opening day, setting a new record for overseas store sales [11][12].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·家庭电器及用品(HS) 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 公司 IP 价值持续释放，全年利润有望超预期 2024 年 06月 19日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 张良卫 [Table_EPS] 执业证书：S0600516070001 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 021-60199793 营业总收入（百万元） 4651 6344 8782 11347 13543 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) 2.67 36.40 38.42 29.22 19.35 证券分析师 周良玖 归母净利润（百万元） 475.66 1,082.34 1,628.75 2,154.36 2,641.13 执业证书：S0600517110002 同比(%) (44.32) 127.55 50.48 32.27 22.59 021-60199793 zhoulj@dwzq.com.cn Non-IFRS净利润（百万元） 573.54 1,190.52 1,708.59 2,214.14 2,680.87 研究助理 郭若娜 同比(%) (42.74) 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company continues to validate its product category expansion logic and accelerates its overseas market penetration [2] - New product lines, including the Labubu Forest Secret Base series building blocks, are expected to enhance domestic market growth and same-store sales [2] - The company is leveraging various promotional strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and KOLs, to enhance its IP and cultural outreach [2] - The company has initiated a global expansion strategy, transitioning from a B2B model to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, with significant growth in overseas revenue [3] - The company’s overseas revenue for 2023 reached 1.066 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 134.9% [3] - The company anticipates a multiplier effect on growth from its IP potential and channel expansion, projecting overseas revenue growth of no less than 100% in 2024 [3] - The Douyin channel has shown rapid growth, with significant increases in GMV [4] Summary by Sections Product Expansion - The company has launched new products, including the Labubu series and POPCARD collectible cards, with strong initial sales performance [2] - The company plans to introduce three major new product lines in 2024, which are expected to increase the proportion of non-blind box products [2] Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of June 11, 2024, is 38.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 51.1 billion HKD [3] - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 16.9% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant increase in contribution expected in 2024 [3] Financial Projections - The report projects the company’s revenue to reach 86.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 16.34 billion yuan [6] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 17.37 billion yuan for 2024, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 26.8 for 2024 [6][7]

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好,我是国海传媒分析师方默云,然后今天给大家分享的是,简短分享一下泡马特的一个更新,也是主要对整个出海的这条线做一个重新的梳理跟展开。首先就是整个出海的情况,其实公司, 确实已经过了0到1的这个阶段现在是从1到100的这个阶段其实最早的海外业务最早从有海外收入是从17年但正式的海外业务开始于18年而在18年到21年这个阶段公司主要是采用B2P和B2B2C ...

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好,我是国海传媒分析师方默云,然后今天给大家分享的是,简短分享一下泡马特的一个更新,也是主要对整个出海的这条线做一个重新的梳理跟展开。首先就是整个出海的情况,其实公司, 确实已经过了0到1的这个阶段现在是从1到100的这个阶段其实最早的海外业务最早从有海外收入是从17年但正式的海外业务开始于18年而在18年到21年这个阶段公司主要是采用B2P和B2B2C ...

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好,我是国海传媒分析师方默云,然后今天给大家分享的是,简短分享一下泡马特的一个更新,也是主要对整个出海的这条线做一个重新的梳理跟展开。首先就是整个出海的情况,其实公司, 确实已经过了0到1的这个阶段现在是从1到100的这个阶段其实最早的海外业务最早从有海外收入是从17年但正式的海外业务开始于18年而在18年到21年这个阶段公司主要是采用B2P和B2B2C ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a Buy rating [2][3] Core Views - Pop Mart demonstrates steady growth through IP incubation, category expansion, and new channel development, with its IP platform logic continuously validated [2] - Overseas expansion accelerates, with new store openings and successful replication of IP category expansion strategies [2] - Pop Mart's 1Q24 revenue grew 40-45% YoY, with mainland China revenue up 20-25% and Greater China & overseas revenue surging 245-250% [2] - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1.066 billion in 2023, a 134.9% YoY increase, with 80 overseas stores (including joint ventures) and 70 directly operated stores [2] - Overseas operating profit margin (OPM) reached 18% in 2023, up 5.6 percentage points YoY [2] - Domestic revenue shows steady growth, with head IPs and category expansion strategies proving effective [2] - Pop Mart City Park Phase I, opened in September 2023, has brought incremental users and enhanced IP lifecycle and value [2] Financial Data and Forecasts - 2024E revenue forecast adjusted to RMB 8.664 billion (previously RMB 9.027 billion) [2] - 2024E Non-IFRS adjusted net profit forecast raised to RMB 1.749 billion (previously RMB 1.592 billion) [2] - 2025E and 2026E revenue forecasts are RMB 10.981 billion and RMB 13.141 billion, respectively [2] - 2025E and 2026E Non-IFRS adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB 2.273 billion and RMB 2.751 billion, respectively [2] - 2024E revenue growth rate is 37%, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit growth rate at 47% [3] - 2025E and 2026E revenue growth rates are 27% and 20%, respectively, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit growth rates at 30% and 21% [3] - 2024E Non-IFRS diluted EPS is RMB 1.30, with 2025E and 2026E forecasts at RMB 1.68 and RMB 2.04, respectively [3] - 2024E ROE is 19%, expected to rise to 20% in 2025E and 2026E [3] Market Data - Closing price on June 4, 2024: HKD 38.70 [4] - 52-week high/low: HKD 40.35/HKD 16.12 [4] - H-share market cap: HKD 52 billion [4] - Outstanding H-shares: 1.343 billion [4] - Exchange rate: RMB/HKD 1.0788 [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company raised its 2024-26 earnings estimates, expecting 38% and 40% growth in sales and adjusted net profit for 2024 [2] - The price target was increased by 18% to HK$45, with a target 2024 P/E of 33x [2] - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 6,301 million, with net income of RMB 1,191 million [6] - For 2024, revenue is projected to grow to RMB 8,712 million, with net income expected to reach RMB 1,662 million [6] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 15.5% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2024 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The company creates over 1,000 toy figures annually, leveraging a large archive of 3D images for IP development [3] - New businesses such as toy bricks, mobile games, and apparel/accessories are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [4][16] - Overseas sales grew by ~250% in 1Q24, driven by a 70-80% increase in store count and ~100% growth in store productivity [11] - The company plans to open ~15 stores in the US and enter new markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in 2024 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics - In 2023, Eastern Asia accounted for 55-60% of overseas sales, while Southeastern Asia and the West contributed ~25% and ~15%, respectively [13] - For 2024, management expects Eastern Asia to account for ~30% of sales, Southeastern Asia ~40%, and the West ~30% [13] - Overseas store productivity is projected to increase to ~RMB 18 million in 2024, up from ~RMB 12 million in 2023 [12] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is transforming into a leading IP operator, aiming to become a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, Sanrio, and Disney [5] - The strategy includes "brand-izing" top IPs and diversifying into new businesses like toy bricks, mobile games, and apparel [18] - The company is leveraging its large design archive to efficiently develop new products and extend IP value [3][16] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted strong demand for new products, with several items selling out quickly [10] - The company expects overseas sales to grow ~130% in 2024, with offline channel sales up ~190% [12] - Management is optimistic about the potential of new businesses and overseas expansion, which are seen as key drivers for 2025-26 [5][17] Other Important Information - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at 63.4% in 2024, with overseas markets contributing higher margins (~69%) [27] - The SG&A ratio is projected to decrease to 42.8% in 2024, reflecting potential operating leverage [27] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is estimated at 19.1% for 2024, slightly below management's optimal target of 20% [28] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document

20240521泡泡玛特股东大会纪要 Q1:公司的业务是不是比较更偏向于线下，线下门店有没有加密的计划？公司有没有考虑 过及时（即时）零售（用美团快送到家）？ A1:第二个问题，其实我们送到家的配送速度还可以，半天左右也是能收到，只是我们没选 美团作为服务商。 然后第一个问题关于线上线下，我们自己其实没有定义线上重要还是线下重要？我们自己 都在努力。去年开始，天猫方面销售环境不是特别好，然后天猫京东往下走，但其实抖音 在往上走，现在包括我们今年到现在看起来整个线上，所以这渠道其实还是有一个不错的 增长趋势的。 当然各有各不同的特点。线下它能给我们的销售带来一个更充分的体验能体验包括品牌装 修，设计，门店的氛围，我们的服务，以及他现场并拿到产品现场拆开的感觉，所以这是 为什么我们跟大多数品牌的不一样，我们那么看重门店的原因。但是，线上我们现在有十 多个直播间提供差异化的服务。小程序我们开发了很多，不管是泡马特别小程序、还是抽 盒机之类的程序，开发了很多定制化的玩法。 然后从开店的角度，我们现在在数量上面虽然还是有增，但增长速度不会那么快，但我们 其实在门店的质量上面是我们这两年在比较关注的东西，可能数量出来没有 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 传播文化业 [ Table_Main[泡I Tnaf 泡bol]e 玛_Ti特tle]（ 9992） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 33.80 一季度经营业绩超预期，海外市场加速扩张 2024.04.30 海 ——泡泡玛特公司更新报告 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 陈筱(分析师) 陈俊希(分析师) 李芓漪(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 16.50-34.55 当前股本（百万股） 1,343 公 021-38675863 021-38032025 021-38038428 当前市值（百万港元） 45,391 司 chenxiao@gtjas.com chenjunxi@gtjas.com liziyi@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880515040003 S0880520120009 S0880523080004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司2024Q1各项收入指标快速增长，中国内地全渠道表现良好，港澳台及海外地区 泡泡玛特 恒生指数 ...