Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.07% on January 15, with Xiamen Port leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to 14306.73 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping and port sector saw a mixed performance among individual stocks, with notable gainers including: - Xingtong Co., Ltd. (603209) at 15.57, up 2.17% with a trading volume of 81,800 shares and a turnover of 127 million yuan [1]. - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) at 14.29, up 2.07% with a trading volume of 639,900 shares and a turnover of 92.36 million yuan [1]. - Nanjing Port (002040) at 10.38, up 1.76% with a trading volume of 242,800 shares and a turnover of 253 million yuan [1]. - Conversely, Xiamen Port (000905) led the decline at 12.91, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 383,400 shares and a turnover of 500 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 168 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 36.77 million yuan [2]. - Notable capital flows among individual stocks included: - China Merchants Energy (601872) with a net inflow of 69.47 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 80.39 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Nanjing Port (002040) had a net inflow of 26.04 million yuan from institutional investors, but also saw a net outflow of 22.99 million yuan from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the geopolitical landscape is shifting due to renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could impact oil trade dynamics and increase demand for compliant oil transportation [1][2][3] - In the short term, if internal unrest in Iran escalates, oil trade demand may shift towards compliant supplies in the Middle East, equivalent to a demand for 38 VLCCs [1][3] - If the U.S. or Israel attacks Iran, the geopolitical risk premium for oil transportation may rise, further affecting the oil market [1][3] Group 2 - Venezuela's oil exports are currently constrained by U.S. military actions, which may push the oil trade towards compliance, representing a demand for 19 VLCCs in the short term [2] - If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted, the oil shipping demand could increase to 46 VLCCs, and with continued investment in infrastructure, exports could reach historical peaks of 240,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 141 VLCCs [2] - The shadow fleet established by Russia has allowed it to maintain oil exports despite sanctions, with potential impacts on 150,000 barrels per day of Russian oil exports if sanctions are intensified [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872.SH), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026.SH), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975.SH) should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing a capital inflow despite market conditions, with the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) seeing a net subscription of 10 million units, marking five consecutive days of net inflow [1] - Political tensions in Venezuela and Iran are increasing, contributing to a rise in regional political risk premiums for oil prices, while OPEC+ has decided to temporarily halt its production growth plan for the first quarter of 2026 [1] - As of January 15, 2026, the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Hengtong Co. leading at a 3.61% increase, while Jiufeng Energy is down 4.45% [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical changes are expected to usher in an "Oil Shipping Era" [3] - The U.S. military action against Venezuela may promote the compliance of Venezuelan oil trade, with short-term impacts limiting exports and shifting demand to compliant regions, equivalent to a demand for 19 VLCCs [4] - If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted, oil exports could reach 2.4 million barrels per day, requiring 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran's oil exports face dual pressures from domestic unrest and U.S. threats, with potential demand shifts to compliant markets equating to a need for 38 VLCCs [4] - Russia's oil exports are maintained through shadow fleets, with potential sanctions impacting 1.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 36 VLCCs [4] - The new geopolitical landscape highlights the strategic value of oil shipping, with demand expected to improve in the short to medium term [4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact on Oil Shipping - The geopolitical situation is reshaping global oil trade flows, expanding the compliant oil shipping market [4] - Short-term supply changes due to geopolitical conflicts may support shipping rates [4] - The dual logic of trade flow restructuring and compliance transformation is expected to drive demand in the oil shipping industry [4] Demand Projections - Venezuela: - Short-term demand shift due to transport restrictions: 19 VLCCs - Medium-term demand if sanctions are lifted: 46 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran: - Short-term demand shift due to unrest: 38 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 57 VLCCs [4] - Russia: - Potential sanctions impact: 36 VLCCs - If sanctions are lifted, demand could increase significantly [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

消息面上，申万宏源研报指出，2025年4季度VLCC运价异常强劲，单季度运价均值录得有史以来第四 高。2026年VLCC市场贸易端结构性变化预计带来超预期增长：中国新增炼厂产能预计贡献VLCC约 1.7%需求增长；此外，委内原油"合规化"预计增加2.1%VLCC需求；伊朗以及俄罗斯等地缘变化导致的 贸易结构性变化也将贡献VLCC增量。该行估测，由于4季度业绩期VLCC运价大幅改善，均值录得9.55 万美元/天左右，估算4季度中远海能业绩约19亿元。 中远海能（600026）(01138)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.03%，报12.13港元，成交额2.47亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Merchants Energy (01138) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 12.13 with a transaction volume of HKD 247 million [1] - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates are expected to be exceptionally strong in Q4 2025, with the average quarterly freight rate reaching the fourth highest in history [1] - The VLCC market is anticipated to experience structural changes in 2026, leading to unexpected growth, driven by new refinery capacity in China contributing approximately 1.7% to VLCC demand growth [1] Group 2 - The report also indicates that the "compliance" of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to increase VLCC demand by 2.1% [1] - Geopolitical changes in regions such as Iran and Russia are projected to contribute additional growth in VLCC demand [1] - The estimated average VLCC freight rate for Q4 is around USD 95,500 per day, leading to an estimated performance of approximately RMB 1.9 billion for China Merchants Energy in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has provided an update on its fleet capacity, indicating a total of 159 oil tankers by the end of September 2025, with a breakdown of 102 engaged in foreign trade and 57 in domestic trade [1] Group 1 - The company will have a total of 159 oil tankers by September 2025 [1] - Out of the total fleet, 102 tankers will be involved in foreign trade activities [1] - The remaining 57 tankers will be dedicated to domestic trade operations [1] Group 2 - Detailed information regarding the fleet capacity can be found in the company's Q3 2025 performance presentation on page 17 [1] - The company updates its investor presentation PPT on its official website with each earnings release [1] - The breakdown of tanker capacity has been thoroughly detailed in the investor presentation [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - According to Raytad Energy, global upstream exploration and development spending is expected to be around $600 billion in 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with deepwater investments projected to decline by 6% [1] - China's crude oil production has rebounded since 2019 due to a long-term strategy for increasing reserves and production, with a CAGR of 2.2% from 2019 to 2024, while natural gas production has a CAGR of 7.3% during the same period [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China have significantly increased capital expenditures from 2020 to 2023 and are expected to maintain high levels in 2024 and 2025, which will support upstream reserve growth and benefit their oil service subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, major oil service companies benefited from the ongoing domestic "increase reserves and production" initiative and the gradual release of overseas business performance, leading to improved operational quality despite falling oil prices [2] - CNOOC's oil service subsidiary reported a 23.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, while other companies like Haiyou Development and Haiyou Engineering saw net profit changes of +13.1% and -8.2% respectively, with the latter experiencing a 27% increase in gross profit [2] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC's oil service companies in the first half of 2025 showed resilience, with CNOOC at +1.5 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating a potential improvement in international competitiveness [2] Group 3: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.81%, with significant increases in stocks such as CNOOC's oil service (+6.03%) and China National Petroleum (+3.57%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 1.15%, reflecting a four-day consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.23 yuan and a net subscription of 15 million units [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 67.11% of the index, including major players like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has seen a stock price increase of 15.18% over the past four days, with a current price of 13.81 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 75.475 billion CNY [1] - The company specializes in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its revenue composition being 44.88% from foreign trade crude oil, 13.64% from domestic crude oil, and 10.69% from LNG transportation [1] - The trading volume for the stock reached 1.009 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 2.11% [1] Group 2 - The Fuguo Zhongzheng Modern Logistics ETF (富国中证现代物流ETF) has increased its holdings in China COSCO Shipping Energy by 3.84 thousand shares, bringing the total to 173.8 thousand shares, which represents 2.98% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 31.63 thousand CNY during the four-day stock price increase [2] - The Fuguo Zhongzheng Modern Logistics ETF was established on June 3, 2021, and has a current scale of 70.6655 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 2.78% [2]