Group 1 - Multiple domestic airlines have extended the free cancellation and change policy for flights involving Japan until March 28, 2026 [1] - The policy adjustment comes in response to controversial remarks made by Japan's new Prime Minister, which have drawn significant criticism and led to a warning from Chinese authorities for citizens to avoid traveling to Japan [1] - Following the announcement on November 15, over 40% of planned flights from China to Japan have been canceled, totaling more than 1,900 flights [1] Group 2 - The number of travelers to Japan has significantly decreased, with a reported drop of approximately 23% in passenger volume on November 25 compared to November 15 [1] - Airlines are currently monitoring market demand and evaluating the situation regarding passenger cancellations and changes [1]

Group 1 - The ticket refund and change policy for flights to and from Japan has been extended by Chinese airlines, allowing free changes and cancellations for tickets purchased before December 5, 2025, for travel dates between November 15, 2025, and March 28, 2026 [1][2] - As of November 30, the number of one-way flights from Chinese airlines to Japan has decreased from 4,703 (as of November 16) to 3,537, representing a reduction of 1,166 flights or 25% [2] - The total number of seats available has also decreased from 884,148 to 672,568, a reduction of 24% [2] Group 2 - Spring Airlines has not announced a free refund and change policy but has already disclosed plans to reduce some flights for the upcoming year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines, including China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines, have announced a special ticket handling policy for flights involving Japan, allowing free cancellations and changes for travel until March 28, 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Details - The special handling policy applies to tickets with at least one unused segment involving flights to, from, or transiting through Japan, with travel dates from November 15, 2025, to March 28, 2026 [4]. - The policy is applicable for tickets issued or reissued before 12:00 on December 5, 2025 [4]. - Cancellations must occur before the scheduled departure time of the flight, and the policy does not apply to cancellations made after the flight's scheduled departure or before November 14, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Change and Refund Procedures - Passengers can change their flights to dates within three days before or after the original flight date for free, with additional changes subject to ticket conditions [5]. - Refunds for unused segments can be processed without a cancellation fee, but tickets that have already been changed must follow the original ticket conditions for refunds [5]. - For changes in itinerary or carrier, it is recommended to refund the original ticket and purchase a new one [5].

Group 1 - Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have announced special handling for tickets related to flights to and from Japan [1] - Passengers traveling on flights to, from, or transiting through Japan before March 28, 2026, can change or cancel their tickets for free [1] - The previous policy allowing free changes and cancellations was set to expire on December 31, 2025 [1]

国航、东航、南航陆续发布日本相关航线客票特殊处理的通知，2026年3月28日（含）前出行的涉及日本进港、出港或经停航班可免费退攻。在此之 前，免费退改签政策到2025年12月31日结束。 |关于调整国航涉及日本航线客票特殊处置方案的通知 (2025年12月5日) 尊敬的旅客: 根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好地安排出行，现调整国航涉及日本航线进出港航班客票特殊处置方案，具体内容如下: 一、适用条件 客票同时满足以下三点: （一）在2025年12月5日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票（包括里程奖励客票）； 三、本通知自2025年12月5日起生效。 (二) 客票未使用行程涉及就行目期为2025年11月15日（含）至2026年3月28日〈合〉之间东京、大阪、名古屋、福冈、仙台、广岛、札幌、神绳进出港的国航实际承运航班和控24航 班号的代码共享航班; (三)在2025年11月15日0时（含）以后申请客票变更或退票(以取消客票订座时间为准）。 二、客票变更及退票规则 如您未确定新的旅行时间，请在航班计划起飞时间前联系原购票渠道、国航客服热线96586或营业网点取消客票订座，待确定新 ...

Core Points - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have announced special handling for tickets related to flights to and from Japan, allowing free cancellations and changes for travel until March 28, 2026 [1] - The previous policy for free cancellations and changes was set to expire on December 31, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are implementing a new policy for ticket handling related to Japan [1] - The new policy allows for free cancellations and changes for flights until March 28, 2026 [1] - The previous free cancellation and change policy was scheduled to end on December 31, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have announced special handling for tickets related to flights to and from Japan, allowing free cancellations and changes for travel until March 28, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The free cancellation and change policy for flights to Japan was previously set to end on December 31, 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The overall demand growth in the aviation industry has rebounded, with significant increases in passenger load factors and strong recovery in international routes during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - The aviation sector is experiencing continuous improvement in volume and pricing data, driven by low base effects and increasing demand [7] - The report highlights the importance of addressing "involution" in the industry to enhance competition and market efficiency [7] Industry Overview - As of October 2025, the total passenger turnover in civil aviation reached 123 billion passenger-kilometers, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4% compared to 2019 and 8.9% compared to 2024 [7][24] - Domestic routes accounted for 924 billion passenger-kilometers, with a year-on-year increase of 27.2% compared to 2019 and 5.7% compared to 2024 [7][24] - International and regional routes saw a turnover of 306 billion passenger-kilometers, with increases of 13.1% compared to 2019 and 19.7% compared to 2024 [7][24] - The available seat kilometers (ASK) in civil aviation reached 1,407 billion, up 17.3% from 2019 and 6.2% from 2024 [7][24] Airline Performance - In October 2025, major airlines showed varied performance, with China Southern Airlines, Air China, and Eastern Airlines reporting year-on-year increases in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) of 8.8%, 8.7%, and 10.6% respectively [49][51][52] - The overall passenger load factor for the industry was 87.4%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to 2019 [24][53] - The report recommends focusing on specific airlines such as China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines for potential investment opportunities [7] Cargo Transport Data - In October 2025, the number of international and regional cargo flights reached 14,220, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [92] - The theoretical cargo capacity for these flights was 10.2 billion tons, with a month-on-month increase of 4.1% [92] Price Trends - Domestic ticket prices increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while the base ticket price rose by 5.5% [24] - The average outbound air freight price index from Shanghai was reported at 4,705 points, with a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [92]

Group 1 - China Southern Airlines has launched the "One Minute Boarding" service for all domestic flights starting from Guangzhou, expanding its coverage to 23 routes and an average of 185 flights per day [1][3] - The "One Minute Boarding" service allows passengers without checked luggage to complete security checks and boarding up to 15 minutes before the scheduled departure time [3] - For passengers with checked luggage, the check-in deadline is set at 30 minutes before the flight's scheduled departure [3] Group 2 - The expanded service includes all domestic flights of the "Southern Airlines Express" from Guangzhou, with key routes such as Guangzhou to Beijing Daxing, Guangzhou to Shanghai Hongqiao, and Guangzhou to Zhengzhou now operational [3] - Special provisions are in place for passengers with unique needs, including those requiring wheelchair assistance, first-time flyers, unaccompanied minors, pregnant women, and those traveling with infants or children [3] - A dedicated service area has been established for special passenger groups to minimize waiting times [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the capacity release of the civil aviation fleet is constrained by factors such as low introduction of new aircraft, engine maintenance, and spare parts availability, with the capacity utilization rate nearing its limit during peak season [1] Group 1: Capacity and Demand - The recent recovery in business and leisure travel demand is noted, with expectations for further policy stimulation for private travel by 2026 [1] - The capacity utilization rate of airlines is approaching its maximum limit, indicating a potential strain on operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In the third quarter, major airlines' revenue per passenger kilometer on international routes has matched that of domestic routes, marking a shift from the weak performance of international routes since 2015 [1] - The strategy of "flying further, flying internationally, and flying to emerging markets" is effectively reducing unit fuel costs against a backdrop of low oil prices and a weak recovery in domestic demand [1] - Major airlines are expected to achieve their first profit since the pandemic in 2025, marking the beginning of a profit release cycle, with positive performance anticipated over the next two years [1]