证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总资产突破 40 万亿 增持（维持） 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/11/25 2025/3/25 2025/7/23 2025/11/20 非银金融 沪深300 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [1] - The recent adjustments in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may present opportunities for investors to reallocate towards equities, particularly in traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [1][5] - The market is currently experiencing a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a policy vacuum affecting performance [3] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and potentially rally in the coming months, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, and domestic consumption as key themes [2] - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end profit-taking, with expectations for a recovery following important policy meetings in December [5][10] - The current market environment is marked by high volatility, necessitating a focus on safety margins in investment strategies, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, textiles, and cyclical industries [4][11]

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a strong rally over the weekend, rising nearly 3% to above $86,600, with a peak above $87,000, while other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw significant increases [1] - Over 110,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market within 24 hours [1] - The recent surge in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is linked to comments from Federal Reserve official Williams, who indicated that a rate cut may be reasonable in the near future, raising expectations for a December rate cut [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen noted that interest rate-sensitive sectors are in a recession, but expressed confidence in their growth prospects for 2026 [3] - Boston Fed President Collins stated that she does not see a need for the Fed to cut rates in December, highlighting a division among policymakers regarding future monetary policy actions [3] - Since the Fed's policy meeting on October 29, Chairman Powell has not made public comments, and among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 5 have indicated a preference to keep rates unchanged, suggesting a nearly even split in opinions [3] Group 3 - Citic Securities reported that the recent decline in U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, was driven by macroeconomic factors rather than panic selling due to an AI bubble [4] - The report indicated that the market correction was primarily triggered by stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish comments from the Fed, leading to profit-taking [4] - Looking ahead, Citic Securities expects U.S. stocks to remain volatile until the December FOMC meeting, with a potential shift of funds towards defensive sectors [4]

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of global risk assets is primarily a liquidity issue, but fundamentally stems from an over-reliance on a single narrative surrounding AI, leading to potential valuation corrections as industrial development, particularly commercialization, lags behind market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market environment may see a shift where the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets could experience "sharp declines followed by slow recoveries," similar to trends observed in the US market [1] - The influx of absolute return-oriented funds is enhancing the intrinsic stability of the market, providing a foundation for future investments [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is a potential opportunity for investors to reallocate towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by the end of the year, particularly in preparation for 2026, as current risk levels are being released [1] - Key areas for allocation include the re-evaluation of pricing power in resource and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as the ongoing trend of companies expanding overseas [1] Group 3: Strategy Considerations - The strategy of high-cut low investment may face increased difficulty in timing rotations due to overly consistent expectations among investors [1]

Domestic and International Developments - China Tourism Group leads the establishment of a new central enterprise focused on cruise operations, with the fleet size ranking first in Asia [2] - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China has been completed and is currently undergoing small-scale testing [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has officially launched commercial trials for satellite IoT services, aiming to stimulate private sector vitality and promote the integration of the real and digital economies [4] Capital Market Insights - Sixteen hard technology-themed funds, including those focused on AI and chips, have been rapidly approved, signaling regulatory support for strategic emerging industries [10] - Citic Securities highlights that the volatility in global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, suggesting that valuation corrections may be necessary as market conditions evolve [11][12]

人民财讯11月23日电，中信证券研报指出，近日，国防科工局官网发布2026年度考试录用公务员公告， 其中，招聘"商业航天司航天监管岗"，意味着商业航天司这一关键职能机构已正式成立。在发射端，中 型运载火箭即将首飞，助力星座大规模组网。目前GW、千帆星座均超百星在轨，应用端落地在即。中 信证券认为，商业航天司的成立将有效整合多部门相关职能，卫星产业发展有望在更高层面实现统筹协 调，商业航天发射审批、卫星运营牌照发放等关键环节的推进效率也有望进一步提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the US stock market indicates a slight downward trend until the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10-11, with a potential rebound expected in the latter half of December due to anticipated changes in monetary policy and tax cuts starting January 1 [1][9]. Market Trends - The US stock market experienced a decline, particularly in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 2.4% and 4.8% respectively [2]. - Despite the downturn, the drop is attributed more to macroeconomic factors rather than panic selling related to an "AI bubble" [2]. Employment Data and Monetary Policy - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations of 51,000, which has raised tightening expectations for monetary policy [3]. - Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have further fueled market expectations for a tightening of monetary policy, with indications that the Fed may maintain current interest rates in December [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, while the broader U6 unemployment rate decreased slightly to 8.0% [4]. - The labor market shows signs of marginal weakening, with potential future downward revisions of employment data for July and August [4]. AI Market Dynamics - The narrative of an "AI bubble" bursting is unlikely to manifest in the short term, as demand continues to grow amid competitive pressures and technological advancements [5][6]. - The commercial landscape for AI is evolving, with significant investments from major tech companies expected to drive growth in the sector [5]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the US stock market have been revised upward, particularly in the information technology and healthcare sectors [7][8]. - The upward revisions in revenue and earnings growth are occurring despite a decline in stock prices, indicating a contraction in valuation multiples rather than a deterioration in earnings expectations [8]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the economic environment, including technology, manufacturing, military, healthcare, and financial services [1][9].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the US stock market on November 20 is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than panic selling due to an AI bubble burst [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent market pullback is attributed to stronger-than-expected September non-farm payroll data combined with hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, leading to profit-taking [1] - The marginal weakening of the US labor market suggests that the upcoming December Federal Reserve meeting may peak the current "hawkish panic" sentiment [1] - The performance expectations for US stocks, particularly in the tech sector, continue to be revised upward, with recent index declines mainly driven by valuation multiple contraction [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The fundamentals of the AI sector remain solid, supported by significant growth in token indices, ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, and strong cash flows and balance sheets from the four major tech giants [1] - Short-term narratives predicting the collapse of the "AI bubble" are expected to be unlikely to materialize [1] - Looking ahead, the market may experience fluctuations until the December Federal Reserve meeting, with a potential shift of funds towards defensive sectors [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Future market rebounds are anticipated following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman and the initiation of tax reduction policies in January 2026 [1] - Recommended sectors for investment include technology, manufacturing, resource products, energy infrastructure (nuclear power), military industry, internet diagnostics, and financial services (banks) [1]

Core Insights - The volatility of global risk assets is primarily attributed to liquidity issues, but fundamentally stems from an over-reliance on a single narrative surrounding AI [1] - The release of U.S. non-farm payroll data and the downward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve triggered a correction in high asset valuations, amplifying concerns about the sustainability of North American AI infrastructure [1] - The current market environment presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in light of the risk release ahead of year-end [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The pace of industrial development, especially commercialization, is lagging behind the secondary market, necessitating appropriate valuation corrections as a risk mitigation strategy [1] - The expectation of early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to rising financial stability risks could disrupt the current market stalemate [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The ongoing inflow of absolute return-oriented funds into the A-share market is enhancing its inherent stability [1] - Future investment strategies should focus on the re-evaluation of pricing power in resource and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as the continued emphasis on companies expanding overseas [1] - The high-low strategy may face increased difficulty in timing rotations due to overly consistent expectations among investors [1]